Solving the income fluctuation problem with unbounded rewards

This paper studies the income fluctuation problem without imposing bounds on utility, assets, income or consumption. We prove that the Coleman operator is a contraction mapping over the natural class of candidate consumption policies when endowed with a metric that evaluates consumption differences in terms of marginal utility. We show that this metric is complete, and that the fixed point of the operator coincides with the unique optimal policy. As a consequence, even in this unbounded setting, policy function iteration always converges to the optimal policy at a geometric rate.     

我国服务贸易发展的波动性分析

服务贸易已成为全球贸易的重要领域，其发展的状况和趋势关系到一国今后在全球贸易中的地位和作用。本文通过对我国1990年以后服务贸易发展趋势的研究，发现我国服务贸易的发展在总量上和结构上存在明显的波动性，本文对这种波动性的特点进行了分析，最后得出结论。     

小水电T接线路对电压波动影响的分析研究

文章主要针对茂名地区小水电的现状和特点进行分析,对于多水电T接线路对电压波动影响方面做出主要阐述,全面分析了并网小水电输出功率波动引起电压波动的机理,为提高多水电集群区域电能质量提供参考依据。     

资产价格波动与银行信贷关系的实证分析

银行信贷对整个经济运行有着深远的影响,并受到资产价格波动的影响。文章构建合理的指标模型,分析我国资产价格波动与银行信贷之间的关系。结果显示,资产价格与银行信贷存在相互影响。由于政策原因,央行放弃对股票市场的选择性控制,股票市场价格波动对银行信贷不具有调节作用,银行信贷主要受房地产市场价格波动的影响。     

Modeling the impulse response complex network for studying the fluctuation transmission of price indices

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We provide a method for analyzing the transmission of fluctuation among price indices, which combines the complex network method and the impulse...     

试析“刘翔退赛”对广告赞助商股价的影响——基于事件研究法的分析

文章利用事件研究法,以"刘翔退赛"事件前后其赞助商的股价变动为样本进行了实证研究。对于此结果,本文分别从整体营销成效、危机公关好坏、代言者与品牌内在关联度、事件本身的影响程度以及证券市场的反应失灵等五个方面简要分析原因。     

Analysis of the gold fixing price fluctuation in different times based on the directed weighted networks

According to the complex network theory, this paper constructs the gold fixing price fluctuation directed weighted network (GFPFDWN) at 10:30 a.m. (A.M.) and 15:00p.m. (P.M.) London Greenwich Mean Time, and studies the law of the gold fixing price fluctuation by analyzing the basic statistical data and characteristics of the GFPFDWN. The results show that the abnormal distribution of the gold fixing price (GFP) at A.M. and P.M. is confirmed by the statistics, the core fluctuation state of the GFPFDWN is reflected in the first 1.8% nodes, and most of the nodes have smaller strength, only a few nodes have larger strength, which has the characteristics of a typical scale-free network. Meanwhile, the nodes with a large strength are closely related among them, which must appear earlier, but the nodes appearing early are not necessarily the nodes with a large strength. The nodes of the GFPFDWN present a short-range correlation in different periods, and the cumulative time of the new nodes shows a high linear growth trend. In addition, the nodes of the GFPFDWN show the characteristics with a small betweenness, clustering coefficient and node strength in different periods, which are different from the characteristics of the random network and chaotic network. When these nodes with small strength appear, which means that this period is in a transitional period, then identifying and analyzing these nodes can effectively predict the fluctuation of the gold fixing price in the next period.     

A new fluctuation test for constant variances with applications to finance

We present a test to determine whether variances of time series are constant over time. The test statistic is a suitably standardized maximum of cumulative first and second moments. We apply the test to time series of various assets and find that the test performs well in applications. Moreover, we propose a portfolio strategy based on our test which hedges against potential financial crises and show that it works in practice.     

Frontier markets’ efficiency: mutual information and detrended fluctuation analyses

This study tests weak form efficiency in frontier markets. Mutual information and detrended fluctuation analyses are performed to assess global correlation and long range dependence in the stock markets of twenty three countries. The results indicate that Slovenia is the only case where there is evidence compatible with weak form efficiency. The relatively less inefficient markets are mainly located in Europe and America, and the relatively more inefficient mainly in the Middle East. This information is useful for investors, but also for the assessed countries’ regulators as they indicate that relevant impediments are preventing the exploitation of potential profitable opportunities.

     

波动载荷下工程机械液压底盘性能及实验技术研究

从驱动系统的动力性以及经济性的角度来看,工程机械液压底盘性能及其发挥程度十分关键。为了提高工程机械发动机——液压驱动系统对波动载荷的自适应性,则借助了工程机械的基础控制原理以及技术,针对波动载荷下工程机械液压底盘的性能进行的一系列的实验。文章就波动载荷下的工程机械液压底盘的性能进行深入分析,并详细阐述在其性能影响下的实质性成果。此外,还分析了基于波动载荷的工程机械液压实验技术的整个过程及其所应用的核心技术,以期相关研究内容能为相关领域带来有益的借鉴。     

The influence of international oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of countries along the “Belt and Road”

In recent years, the international crude oil price has become increasingly volatile. It influences the exchange rate changes of relevant countries through economic growth, price level, international balance of payments, and other channels. Such exchange rate fluctuations have caused certain risks for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. This article analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the exchange rates of countries. Because the fluctuation of oil prices and exchange rates has shown the characteristics of multiple time scales, this study used the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the long-cycle and short-cycle sequences of oil prices and the exchange rates of various countries, then analyzed the impact of oil price changes on exchange rates under different time scales. The results showed that oil price fluctuations have an impact on the exchange rate changes of countries along the “Belt and Road” under different time scales. However, this effect is asymmetric between oil-producing countries and non-oil-producing countries, and the transmission path of oil prices to exchange rates varies from cycle to cycle.     

The fluctuation correlation between investor sentiment and stock index using VMD-LSTM: Evidence from China stock market

The impact of the investor sentiment on China’s capital market price volatility is concerned under the perspective of the behavioral finance. Firstly, in terms of the existing methods of establishing the investor sentiment index, the composite investor sentiment index which include six indicators (five objective indicators and a subjective indicator) are obtained. Secondly, VMD-LSTM (Variational Mode Decomposition and Long Short Term Memory) hybrid neural network model is used to decompose and restructure the investor sentiment index and the Shanghai Security Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) into the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend. Each trend is trained to obtain the forecasting results in three different time scales, and then to achieve the final predicting results by superimposing the output of each trend. Furthermore, compare with other prediction methods, the model can indeed improve the overall predicting accuracy. Finally, GARCH model and the co-integration error regression model are used to discuss the fluctuation correlation and VAR (Vector Auto-regression) models are established to analyze the causality between the stock market indices and the investor sentiment index.     

转变政府职能与推进改革

一、科学地界定政府在经济发展中的作用 各国在经济发展中有各自的特点,经济发展中存在的问题也各不相同.因此,不应该简单地通过应用某一种政策主张,来解决一国经济发展中的问题,而应实事求是地分析一国经济存在的主要问题,通过适当的政策组合,有针对性地解决经济发展中存在的问题.     

高校知识产权保护工作亟待创新

文章认为,高校的知识产权保护工作近年来显得尤为重要,尽管高校在知识产权保护方面做了较多工作,也取得了一定的成绩,但仍不能适应我国和国际经济、科技和社会发展的需要,还存在一些必须尽快解决的问题。     

金融危机下的企业文化思考

金融危机正在世界范围蔓延,并已影响到了各国的实体经济.在此背景下,我国的企业该有怎样的作为?     

论知识经济时代对知识型员工的管理--基于个人与组织之间的冲突分析

在以知识经济为特征的21世纪,作为知识载体的知识型员工是企业的核心资源,知识型员工具有新的时代特征;企业作为一个组织也有其自身的原则,而这些原则和知识型员工的个性是相矛盾的,二者经常发生摩擦,所以如何协调二者的关系,如何获得、留住、管理好知识型员工,关系到一个企业的生存和发展。本文最后提出了一些知识经济时代对知识型员工管理的建议。     

承包方更换合同约定人员时发包方的应对措施探讨

建设工程项目中,发包方和承包方签订的所有合同都是基于双方达成的一致意见的前提下订立的,这些合同理应按照诚实、信用的原则全面履行.但在实际项目中发现,存在一些承包方为了赢取中标,承诺了具有较高水平、经验丰富的人员,作为投标中派驻现场的人员,并最终以合同条款约定在双方的合同里,而在项目开工后,又以各种理由,把这些高水平经验丰富的人员换成经验水平一般、投标承诺之外的人员,可能给发包方带来风险和损失.文章对工程项目进行中发包方如何应对承包方更换合同约定的人员谈一些意见.     

Dilettantism in investigating the impact of the Internet on the wellbeing of the elderly

The surge of interest in the social impacts of the Internet has led information systems experts to apply methods and theories garnered from disciplines such as psychology and sociology. As researcher look across disciplines for methods and explanations of outcomes, they run the risk of researching badly. This may be because they are inexperienced in the theory or method, or because the theory or method is not entirely applicable to the context that challenges them. Thus, in the search for the novelty necessary to achieve publications, and given the lack of experience in applying information systems to issues beyond the corporate sphere, research that does not hold water is being undertaken. This is of particular interest because it is not necessarily being undertaken by the novice. The research reported here was undertaken by experienced researchers using experimental and interview methods with which they had experience in other disciplines (psychology and economics). However, the context of researching the impact of the Internet on the quality of life of first time users over the age of 65 was sufficiently different as to render the methods and possibly the theory inappropriate. This dilettantism must be recognized for what it is.     

从制造业看中国工业化数量背后的质量

新型工业化发展道路要求工业的发展带动其它产业的发展。本文通过回归模型分析(SAS软件)论证了我国制造业促进第一、第三产业的发展。然而通过比较改革开放以来两个时期制造业的一些变化并进行实证分析得出,在这些可喜的数字后面,我国的制造业内部结构存在着质量上的问题(主要是外部替代效应、内部替代效应),其原因分析主要是引入了外商直接投资技术转移过程图。最后从经济增长、经济发展的角度总结了存在问题并相应提出了几点建议。     

适应高技术战争需要,加快我军装备物流建设

强大的军事物流体系已经成为高技术战争强有力的支撑。军事物流的能力和水平，已经成为决定战争进程和结果的关键性制约因素。本文从高技术战争的特点和发展趋势出发，提出了高技术战争对军事物流的需求；基于对美军军事物流的分析，对装备物流的基本内涵、装备物流建设的发展战略和需要重视的问题进行了初步的探讨。