The persistence of current and proposed measures of operating cash flow

The measurement of operating cash flow using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) currently requires deductions for interest and income tax payments, and prohibits deductions for capital expenditures. In contrast, the IASB and the FASB are jointly proposing a new measure of operating cash flow which prohibits deductions for interest and income tax payments, and requires deductions for capital expenditures. This study compares the persistence of the current and proposed measures of operating cash flow, and the industry-specific results indicate that there is no significant difference between the persistence of the two measures for more than three-fourths of the industries in the sample. Moreover, the Boards’ constituents are recommending the use of a subtotal of operating cash flow prior to capital expenditures, and the results of this study suggest that this subtotal is more persistent for a limited number of industries than the current measure. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the predictive ability of operating cash flow will not change significantly for most industries.     

控股股东股权质押与上市公司股利政策选择

本文基于2003-2017年间A股上市公司的相关数据研究控股股东股权质押对上市公司在“高送转”与现金股利之间如何选择的影响。本文发现,当控股股东进行了股权质押时,上市公司更可能推出“高送转”的利润分配方案,回避或降低现金股利的倾向更高,这与我国资本市场投资者对“高送转”与现金股利之间偏好差异一致;这一关系在控股股东质押股份比例越高、质押股权面临的平仓风险越高时更为显著。本文的研究揭示了控股股东股权质押在公司股利政策选择方面的经济后果,并为市场投资者对“高送转”以及现金股利的不同偏好提供了增量证据。     

Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance

This study examines the effects of weekly and monthly capital flows into the dedicated REIT mutual fund sector on aggregate REIT returns and, simultaneously, the effects of industry-level REIT returns on subsequent REIT mutual fund flows. The dynamic relation between REIT capital flows and returns is estimated using vector autoregression (VAR) techniques. Unlike static regression techniques, our dynamic model produces estimates of the short-run relationships, long-run relationships, impulse response functions, and forecast variance decompositions. We find evidence that REIT mutual fund flows are positively and significantly related to prior returns, while prior REIT mutual fund flows do not significantly influence REIT returns. However, contemporaneous flows do appear to have an initial positive effect, which is partially reversed one period later. The positive contemporaneous effect, however, is the result of unexpected REIT mutual fund flows, while the expected portion is insignificant.     

会计盈余、现金流量的价值相关性实证研究基于沪深股市的实证证据

已有的研究结果说明会计盈余具有价值相关性。从盈余等于经营现金流量与应计利润之和这一新的视角切入,以实证的方法对沪深两地上市的A股公司进行三大样本检验。并通过建立股票报酬与应计利润和现金流量的回归方程,利用应计利润回归系数的显著性对会计盈余与现金流量的价值相关性做比较,结果表明,会计盈余的价值相关性要大于现金流量的价值相关性。     

Inflation,operating cycle,and cash holdings

A corporate cash-holding strategy is a trade-off between the costs and benefits of holding cash.At the macrolevel,firms are inclined to adjust and optimize their cash-holding strategies in response to changes in purchasing power due to inflation.At the microlevel,the operating cycle,which indicates the speed and turnover of corporate cash flow,also influences the corporate cash-holding strategy.Firms flexibly adjust their cash-holding strategies in response to changes in the internal and external environment,which is referred to as the cash adjustment strategy.We examine these predicted relationships using a sample of listed firms in China’s stock market over the 1998–2009 period.Consistent with our predictions,the empirical results indicate a significant negative association between cash holdings and the CPI,but the relationship is reversed when the CPI reaches a certain level.There is also a U-shaped relationship between operating cycle and cash holdings,and this relationship is similarly influenced by changes in the inflation level.In examining the macroeconomic environment and microlevel firm-specific characteristics simultaneously,our findings supplement the literature on firms’cash-holding strategies and provide theoretical and practical implications.     

Further evidence of the relationship between accruals and future cash flows

Focusing only on operating accruals in accrual‐based studies results in a loss of information and noisy measures of both accrual and cash flow components of earnings. Thus, we examine the relative importance of working capital accruals, non‐current operating accruals, and financing accruals with regard to future cash flows from operations (CFO). Using Australian data, we provide evidence that both working capital and non‐current operating accruals are important for explaining future CFO but that the contribution of financing accruals is not significant. Moreover, the asset component of accruals plays a more important role in explaining future CFO than the liability component.     

上市公司超能力派现与公司治理结构的实证研究

本文选取2003～2005年沪市和深市的1748家上市公司为样本,研究我国上市公司超能力派现与公司治理结构之间的关系.研究发现,第三大股东持股比例与超能力派现正相关,监事会规模、资产负债率和净资产收益率与超能力派现负相关.第一大股东持股比例与超能力正相关没有通过显著性检验,反映我国前几大股东可能合谋实现超能力派现.我国迫切需要优化公司治理结构争完善法制来制止超能力派现的发生.     

《现金流量表准则》实施过程中存在的两个问题

文章就《企业会计准则———现金流量表》实施过程中存在的两个突出问题进行了分析 ,并提出了手工编制现金流量表情况下调整分录编制的基本思路及非金融企业之间的非贸易往来所引起的现金流量变化的对外报告方法     

A theory of corporate financial decisions with liquidity and solvency concerns

This paper studies the impact of both liquidity and solvency concerns on corporate finance. I present a tractable model of a firm that optimally chooses capital structure, cash holdings, dividends, and default while facing cash flows with long-term uncertainty and short-term liquidity shocks. The model explains how changes in solvency affect liquidity and also how liquidity concerns affect solvency via capital structure choice. These interactions result in a dynamic cash policy in which cash reserves increase in profitability and are positively correlated with cash flows. The optimal dividend distributions implied by the model are smoothed relative to cash flows. I also find that liquidity concerns lead to a decrease of dispersion of credit spreads.     

我国上市公司高送转公告效应的实证研究

为检验上市公司定高送转预案公告发布对其股票价格的影响,本文以2009年至2010年沪深两市推出高送转预案的285家上市公司为样本,选取公告日前10日至公告日后20日为事件窗口,运用事件研究法对高送转公告效应进行实证研究。结果表明：中国股市具有明显的高送转公告效应,上市公司高送转预案公告发布前后股票具有显著的正价格效应,会产生持续的累计异常正收益;然而,由于信息不对称,部分投资者通常会提前获得有关高送转的内幕信息并提前买入,并以此获得可观的超额收益,而普通投资在公告发布后买入只能获得小部分的超额收益并且需要承担更大的风险。     

货币政策、融资约束与现金股利

股利分配不仅是上市公司财务管理的核心内容,也是投资者获取回报的重要方式。以中国1999-2012年沪、深A股盈利上市公司为样本,本文检验了宏观货币政策和微观融资约束对公司现金股利发放的影响。研究发现:(1)紧缩的货币政策抑制了公司现金股利的发放;(2)公司面临的融资约束进一步强化了紧缩货币政策对现金股利的抑制作用;(3)银企关联有助于缓解紧缩货币政策对现金股利的抑制作用。进一步研究发现:出于再融资考虑,半强制分红政策的实施使得上市公司在货币政策紧缩期反而发放了更多的现金股利,体现出一定的政策导向作用。本文的发现不仅丰富了现金股利影响因素和货币政策经济后果的相关研究,同时也为我国股利监管政策的完善提供了一定启发。     

母公司个别财务报表中对子公司投资的会计处理方法之辨:成本法还是权益法?

由于我国现行《长期股权投资》会计准则规定在母公司个别财务报表中采用成本法核算对子公司的长期股权投资(以下简称为对子公司投资),这割裂了母公司个别财务报表与合并财务报表的本原逻辑关联,削弱了两者间的互补性,且导致母公司股东基于母公司个别财务报表来厘定分红权利虽然符合《公司法》却很不合理,而基于合并财务报表来厘定分红权利虽更为合理但和《公司法》存在明显冲突.我们对该问题进行了深入分析,论证了在母公司个别财务报表之中采用权益法来核算其对子公司投资的逻辑合理性和现实必要性,并建议修订我国现行《长期股权投资》会计准则,在母公司个别财务报表之中由成本法改为采用权益法来核算其对子公司投资.     

疫情如何影响企业发展预期?——基于压力传导机制的实证研究

公共卫生事件对企业微观经济行为的影响尚未引起足够的关注。立足于中国当前的疫情背景和制度环境,本文利用最新的“企业开工力”问卷调查数据,考察了新冠肺炎疫情对企业发展预期的影响和机制。研究发现,疫情降低了企业在未来开展经济行为的意愿;机制分析表明,紧张的现金流是疫情降低企业行动意愿的重要途径,具体表现为疫情分别通过提高来自现金流、违约金、还付贷款和员工工资等方面的资金支付压力,进而降低企业的发展预期。进一步分析表明,企业在疫情爆发前的活跃程度越高、所在市级地区的营商环境越好,疫情对企业发展预期的负向影响会越强;而且,疫情与企业发展预期间的关系在不同程度上受到企业所在地区疫情状况以及企业产权性质、所属产业类别等异质性因素的影响。在使用一系列稳健性检验后,上述结论依然稳健。本研究将企业经济行为的影响因素拓展至公共卫生安全领域,不仅揭示了公共卫生事件影响企业经济行为的微观机理,而且还为疫情防控下政府出台扶持企业相关政策提供了决策参考。     

贸易开放度会影响极端国际资本流动吗?——基于54个经济体跨国面板数据的分析

随着世界各国频繁出现国际资本大规模流入或流出的现象,极端国际资本流动已成为国际金融领域广泛关注的重要问题。本文参考Forbes&Warnock (2012)的方法,基于54个经济体1991年第一季度至2016年第四季度的国际资本流动数据,构建极端国际资本流动时期数据库,可识别四种极端国际资本流动事件类型:"激增(Surges)""骤停(Sudden Stops)""外逃(Flight)"以及"撤回(Retrenchment)"。基于该数据库,分析贸易开放度对极端国际资本流动的影响。实证结果表明,第一,一国贸易开放度越高,其发生极端国际资本流动事件的可能性越低。第二,在考虑了国家经济发展水平的差异后,贸易开放度对本国资本和外国资本流入和流出的影响存在显著差异。对于发达经济体,贸易开放度对外国资本流动和本国资本流动均有显著影响;对于发展中经济体,贸易开放度仅影响本国的资本流动,对外国资本流动的影响并不显著。第三,贸易开放度对长期资本极端流动与短期资本极端流动的影响并没有显著差异。基于本文的研究结果,建议我国应继续坚持贸易开放政策,且此后分析极端国际资本流动应将其细分为激增、骤停、外逃和撤回四类,对极端国际资本流动的监测应区分本国资本和外国资本异常流动情况。     

Corporate social responsibility and dividend policy

This study outlines and tests two corporate social responsibility (CSR) views of dividends. The first view argues that firms are likely to pay fewer dividends because CSR activities lower the cost of equity, encouraging firms to invest or hoard cash rather than to pay dividends. The second view suggests that CSR activities are positive NPV projects that increases earnings and hence dividend payouts. The first (second) view predicts that firms with a stronger involvement in CSR activities should be associated with a lower (higher) dividend payouts. The finding supports the second view and is robust.     

Impact of financial and multinational operations on manager perceptions of dividends

We survey managers of firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange about their views on dividends. We find the perceptions of factors that influence dividend policy differ between managers of financial and non-financial firms. Industry classification also affects how managers view statements about the dividend pattern, dividend setting process, dividend policy and firm value, residual dividend theory, and explanations for paying dividends. However, we find weak, if any, multinational operations effect on manager perception of dividends. We conclude that researchers investigating dividends should partition the data by industry type and perhaps other firm characteristics to better understand the dividend puzzle.     

中国外汇资本流动结构对实际有效汇率影响的实证研究

实际有效汇率(REER)是衡量一国国际竞争力的重要指标,不同的资本流动结构可能会对REER产生不同影响。本文分析了两大类外汇流动和资本流动对REER的作用机制,并对中国的情况进行实证检验。结果发现,加总资本流动对人民币REER升值产生微弱的负影响,外商直接投资导致REER较为显著的升值效应,投资收益和私人部门汇款对REER的升值效应较强。在此基础上,本文建议应该继续加大引进那些高科技的外商直接投资,并积极鼓励其进口,既有助于中国国际竞争力的提高,也有助于中国经常账户的平衡;同时应尽快建立一套完善的监测体系,加强对跨境资金流动的监督管理。     

Information Provided by Accrual and Cash-Flow Measures of Operating Activities

This article examines accrual and cash-flow measures useful for observing companies' financing, investing and operating activities. It addresses the information provided jointly by income and operating cash flow, and reveals that information provided by these accounting measures is dependent on their relative magnitudes. A consistent pattern of income in excess of operating cash flow, with both measures appropriately adjusted and scaled, indicates superior company growth. Income and cash-flow patterns are associated significantly with various company financing, investing and operating attributes. Empirical tests confirm that both income and operating cash flow are important for observing company performance and prospects when considered jointly and when interpreted with respect to accounting measurement theory. At least for many companies, the results do not support the conventional wisdoms that accounting measures of income and operating cash flow converge over long periods of time and that earnings provide a reliable basis for cash-flow prediction.     

金融控股公司控制下的上市银行绩效及其协同效应分析

本文首先从理论角度论述金融控股公司与全能银行以及经营单一业务的金融企业相比具有比较优势;并构建“税前经营现金流收益率”指标,对金融控股公司控制下的上市银行绩效进行评估,并对这一指标进行分解和进一步分析。结果显示兴业银行表现较优,而中信银行和招商银行经营绩效逊于单一经营的银行平均值,显示两家银行未能有效实现金融控股公司内部的协同效应。