广州房地产按揭行业的历史演进及未来趋势

通过文献整理和行业专家访谈,本文对广州房地产按揭行业的产生与发展的历史脉络进行了系统梳理,首次提出广州房地产按揭行业发展经历了准备期、萌芽期、成长期、调整期和发展期等五个历史阶段,并对每一历史时期的代表性事件进行了阐述。以此为依据,对当前广州房地产按揭行业存在的突出问题进行了分析,指出房地产按揭证券化、互联网技术应用、批发按揭和共建按揭行业生态圈是广州房地产按揭行业未来发展方向。     

Return Relationships between Listed Banks and Real Estate Firms: Evidence from Seven Asian Economies

This paper studies the return relationships between listed banks and real estate firms in seven Asian economies before and after the Asian financial crisis. We find that listed banks were exposed to real estate risk both before and after the crisis, but that the exposure increased in the post-crisis period. After the crisis, the hidden risk of real estate collateral in the bank lending process was explicit, as was evidenced by the increased sensitivity and the structure break. In terms of causality, the returns of listed real estate firms are found to Granger-cause the returns of listed banks. However, there is mixed evidence as to whether listed bank returns Granger-cause the returns of listed real estate firms. The study is significant because it indicates the importance of lending policies in relation to the real estate market in establishing a healthy financial system.     

Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study examines the linkage between equity real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and the private real estate factor. The results reveal a tighter connection between REIT and the private real estate market starting from 1993. In addition, large-cap REITs seem to behave more like real estate than do small-cap REITs. Overall, the results are consistent with three notions: (1) that institutional investors provide information-gathering services (Bradrinath et al., Rev. Financ. Stud., 8:401–430, 1995), (2) that a more sophisticated investor base improves information flow, and (3) that a high degree of participation from institutional investors strengthens the linkage between REIT returns and the underlying real estate factor (Ziering et al., The evolution of public and private market investing in the new real estate capital markets, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Parsippany, NJ, 1997).

论物业税税基评估主体的选择

在物业税开征之前,确立物业税税基评估主体并对其性质予以确认是一个亟待解决的问题。本文借鉴国际经验,通过比较分析,认为我国应该选择准政府性质的专属评估机构来负责税基评估工作。同时,应由物业税税基评估师对物业税税基进行准确评估。     

房地产贷款中的信息不充分及其风险

房地产市场价格波动之所以能够引起银行房地产信贷损失,甚至导致金融市场和宏观经济不稳定的后果,原因是由于房地产抵押贷款中存在的测不准风险或不确定性。本文从信息不充分的视角,提出了房地产抵押贷款中的测不准风险的定义,并分析了测不准风险的特性、形成原因和特殊后果。本文认为,减少或消除不必要的不可预见和不可描述的不确定性可能是管理房地产抵押贷款违约风险,提高贷款配置效率的最好途径,这对于分析房地产市场价格波动与金融市场、宏观经济的互动关系,防止房地产价格波动对金融业和宏观经济的冲击至关重要。     

A Web Of Shocks: Crises Across Asian Real Estate Markets

The behaviour of real estate markets during the 1997–98 Financial crisis in Asian economies has received little attention despite the extensive research on other asset markets over this time. This paper examines the transmission of shocks across national real estate markets prior to and during the Asian crisis using a multivariate latent factor framework. The results reveal that diversification opportunities prior to the crisis are much reduced during the crisis. A comparison with regional equity markets shows that the transmission of shocks differs across the real estate and equity markets, providing evidence that investment in multiple asset classes provides some protection from large market downturns.     

日本房地产税制改革及其启示

本文认为,我国目前房地产市场环境与日本20世纪七八十年代面临的环境有颇多相似之处,因而日本房地产税制改革的经验对我国有很好的启示作用。第二次世界大战后日本房地产税收政策先后进行了7次较大的改革和调整,文章对此进行了较详细的梳理,并评价了其政策效应,以期为我国充分运用财税政策,加大房地产市场宏观调控力度,提供借鉴和思路。     

房地产价格指数周期的宏观分析

本文建立了中国房地产价格指数的投机度模型,区分了房地产价格增长的价值和泡沫成分,动态刻画了一个由基本面增长、泡沫推动及价格的价值回归等因素共同作用形成的完整房地产价格周期,定量地研究了现阶段我国房地产的泡沫度及其发展趋势,得出了我国房地产市场泡沫成分对货币流动性高度敏感的结论。通过稳定性测试,我们定量分析了货币政策回归稳健对房地产市场可能带来的冲击,并对地方政府、商业银行及监管部门提供了建议。     

Real Estate Markets and Macroprudential Policy in Europe

Boom‐bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy. The geographically differentiated nature of real estate market fluctuations implies that these policies need to be granular across regions and countries. Before the financial crisis that started in 2007 property markets were overvalued in a range of European countries, but much like in other constituencies active policies addressing this were an exception. An increasing number of studies suggest that borrower‐based regulatory policies, such as reductions in loan‐to‐value or debt‐to‐income limits, can be effective in leaning against real estate booms. But many of the new macroprudential policy authorities in Europe do not have clear powers to determine them. Moreover, the cross‐border spillovers they may give rise to suggest the establishment of a well‐defined macroprudential coordination mechanism for the single European market.     

Correlation and Volatility Dynamics in International Real Estate Securities Markets

We study international correlation and volatility dynamics of publicly traded real estate securities using monthly returns from 1984 and 2006. We also examine, for comparison, the correlations among the corresponding stock markets. A multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model captures the time-varying correlation within the full period. We confirm lower correlations between all real estate securities market returns than those between the stock market returns themselves. Some significant variations and structural changes in the correlation structure happened within the sample period. We detect a strong and positive connection between real estate securities market correlations and their conditional volatilities. We also find the international correlation structure of real estate securities and the broader stock market are linked to each other. Our results have economic motivations regarding the potential integration of international real estate securities markets and the possibility of including information on changing correlations and volatilities to design more optimal portfolios for international real estate securities.

The Friday Effect in European Securitized Real Estate Index Returns

This study extends research on the day-of-the-week effect towards European real estate indices. We examine this anomaly for several European securitized real estate index returns between 1990 and 2003. Although the countries under analysis have unique country-specific patterns, we find that eight out of eleven European countries exhibit abnormally high Friday returns. Moreover, two different Europe indices also exhibit the Friday anomaly. The anomaly is robust with respect to extreme observations, alternative specifications and several well-known calendar effects.     

房地产信托投资基金和金融发展与创新

本文在介绍房地产信托投资基金基本内容的基础上,结合有关金融发展和创新的理论,指出REITs既是金融发展与金融创新的结果,同时也进一步促进了金融自身的发展,促进了社会资源配置效率的提高。     

A Real Estate Price Index for Thin Markets

This article examines a time-series-based method for estimating real estate price indexes for markets that have few transactions. The proposed method is more parsimonious than the conventional repeat sale or hedonic methods. Also, it is potentially more accurate and less prone to outliers. It achieves this by linking current transactions to preceding transactions, thereby increasing the set of comparable transactions on which to base the index. My experiments confirm that the time-series price index fares much better in thin markets than a benchmark hedonic index. It remains close to the true index when there are few transactions and it does not have the volatility of the benchmark index. While the time-series-based index developed in this article does better than the benchmark hedonic index, one surprise result is that the hedonic index is itself quite robust in small samples.     

论我国房地产税制改革的目标与途径

随着房地产市场的发展,尤其是房地产价格的不断上涨,期望通过税收工具抑制房价的呼声越来越强烈。本文认为,房地产价格的上涨是一种长期趋势,税收对房地产市场的调控应注意把握调控时机和调控力度。从税收政策目标看,不应以打压房价为目标,而应以促进房地产市场健康、有序发展为目标,并应在课税对象、税制结构、税负水平和征收管理上进行重新设计,最终建立起全新的、健全的房地产税收体系。     

基于均衡分析的我国房地产泡沫度分析

基于均衡分析得到一个检测房地产价格合理性的理论参照,通过将计算出的房地产泡沫度在时间上做纵向对比以及在不同地区间做横向对比,考察现阶段我国房地产泡沫的严重程度。结果表明,现阶段我国大陆总体上的房地产泡沫度与房地产过热阶段的1993年相差不大,与楼市高峰时的香港有不小的差距;我国内地省市的房地产泡沫度一般较低,部分沿海地区接近或超过了楼市高峰时的香港。     

Real Options: Experimental Evidence

Empirical testing of the real options theory has been very limited. This is primarily due to various inherent problems with obtaining field data for many components of real options theory. This paper utilizes experimental methodology to generate the data. The advantage of the experimental approach is that it enables the investigator to generate reliable and replicable data in a controlled environment. The results of the experiment indicate that fundamental insights of real options theory are not evident to individual investors. The majority invested too early and thus failed to recognize the benefit of the option to wait. However, when the investors had to compete with others for the right to invest, their bids generally reflected the value of the embedded option. Furthermore, as predicted by the theory, their bids increased with greater uncertainty about future cash flows from the investment.     

重视房地产持有环节税的作用 积极推进房地产税制改革

开征房地产持有环节税①是我国财政体制改革的一项重要内容。本文探讨了现阶段在我国开征房地产持有环节税可以实现的政策目标:构建地方税主体税种,完善分税制财政体制;调节居民收入分配和财富存量,缩小贫富差距;稳定房地产价格,促进房地产市场健康发展;促进节约利用土地资源,保护耕地红线;缓和购房压力,促进一般性消费增长,优化消费结构。     

Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets

Using five assets (T-bills, bonds, stocks, and both public and private real estate), this study investigates how cointegration of capital markets affects the dynamics of public and private real estate markets. The results show that the price indices of the five assets are nonstationary and cointegrated. Some implications for the long-term equilibrium relationship for portfolio diversification, price discovery and prediction are discussed. In a Granger causality framework, error-correction augmented VAR models (VECM) and unrestricted VAR models are compared with respect to the conclusion regarding the interaction between public and private real estate returns. VECM is also shown to improve the prediction of private real estate returns relative to an unrestricted VAR model. These results raise questions about previous research studies regarding the dynamics between public and private real estate returns. It is shown that the long-term equilibrium relationship establishes a feedback between the two real estate markets, but the private market seems to informationally lead the public one. Possible explanations are also explored.     

物业税开征的先决条件之一:房地产产权制度的改革与完善

明晰的房地产产权关系以及相应完善的管理制度是开征物业税不可缺少的重要条件。本文探讨了物业税与房地产产权管理的一般关系,针对我国房地产产权管理现状存在的问题,提出了开展房地产产权登记普查、逐步统一城乡房地产产权管理制度等政策建议。     

Real estate market transparency and default on mortgages

This paper investigates the relationship between real estate market transparency (RET) and default on mortgages (DOM). Using data from 46 countries for the period of 2006–2016, we find evidence that there is a negative and significant relationship between RET and DOM. This result is robust with the inclusion of control variables and different estimation methods including panel fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM). We also find that the association between RET and DOM is more apparent in emerging economies than high-income countries.