Financially Unstable Households

One of Hyman Minsky’s most important contributions is the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), which explains why capitalist economies experience periods of optimism (booms) and pessimism (bust). At the beginning of a cycle, businesses take on more debt, but they are conservative, and the principal is easily paid back (a hedge position). As optimism grows, so does risk-taking and businesses take on more debt. At some point they can only afford to pay interest on that debt (speculative position). In the most extreme case, businesses take on so much debt that they can neither pay the principal nor make interest payments (Ponzi position). Minsky wrote about financial instability (e.g., 1975 Minsky, Hyman. 1975. John Maynard Keynes. New York: Columbia University Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar], 1982 Minsky, Hyman. 1982. Can “It” Happen Again?: Essays on Instability and Finance. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe. [Google Scholar]) before U.S. households had taken on large levels of debt. Minsky focused on businesses since they were the debt drivers. Today household debt is at record levels, so it makes sense to understand how financially unstable U.S. households are and what this means for the economy. We begin the article by arguing that Minsky’s categories should be applied to households; then we operationalize them using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances. This enables us to measure changes in household financial instability using a Minsky-inspired framework and draw some conclusions.     

The Image of Australia. Perceptions of the Australian Economy from the Eighteenth to the Twentieth Century

Recent institutionalist and post-Keynesian work on business cycles continues with the traditional institutionalist supposition that financial bubbles drive cycles; however there has been a growing sense in the literature that household consumption, not business investment, has become the key variable. This paper will show how this is a change from historical institutional theory and it will then discuss how this change pushes income distribution toward a more central role in explaining current cycle dynamics. Specifically, this paper argues that much of the economic growth over the last two decades can be attributed to the top two quintiles borrowing more and the current slow growth can be attributed to high quintile households increasing their consumption while middle income households are continuing to deleverage.     

Funding self-employment – the role of consumer credit

This article investigates whether self-employed households use consumer loans – in particular, instalment loans and overdrafts – to finance business activities. Controlling for financial and nonfinancial household variables, we show that self-employed households particularly use personal overdrafts significantly more often than employee households. When analysing the correlation between consumer loan take-ups and consumption of self-employed in comparison to employee households, we find first evidence that overdrafts are used by self-employed to finance their business as well. This indicates that intermingling constitutes a financing strategy when regular business loans might not be accessible.     

A Systemic Debt Payoff Policy

The average family in the US takes on debt to buy homes, to get education, and sometimes to even pay for normal daily expenditures. Outstanding debt generates a stream of rents to creditors and has become a significant burden on many households. A policy of household debt forgiveness could increase both economic equality and individual liberty. Under what conditions might such a policy be socially acceptable and what would be the implications of such a policy? For debt forgiveness to gain social acceptance the U.S. population would have to perceive the policy as fair and believe that such a program would treat all households equally. Furthermore, any such policy would be politically impossible if it stripped asset owners of money due or would not substantially lower household debt levels. This article explores some possible parameters that a politically feasible policy would contain, and it offers an estimate of policy costs.     

Analysis of the impact of excess mortgages on housing prices using the cointegration test

This article attempts to explain and predict housing prices by constructing a model based on the variables that most influence demand: the theoretical purchase effort index without tax deductions as well as a new and innovative indicator that includes the excess of mortgages granted. The Johansen methodology for cointegration analysis reveals the existence of long-run equilibrium and the model’s subsequent ECM, to verify the statistical significance of the variables, confirms the validity of the model concerning this Spanish case study.     

财务环境对小企业融资的影响

本文指出小企业对国民经济持续稳定增长具有非常重要的意义,并由此阐述了小企业融资的重要性.小企业融资困难阻碍了小企业的经济发展,完善企业外部财务环境有利于小企业融资,有利于促进小企业的未来拓展.     

试用收益最大法分析企业最优负债比例

确定企业最优负债比例是企业在进行融资时一项十分重要的决策,文章在分析债务融资成本与收益的基础上,通过使边际收益为零分析出债务融资收益最大化时的负债比例。与通常的资本结构理论分析相比,这种分析更加直观,也具有更强的实用价值。     

中国家庭债务和资产积累关系的实证分析:1997-2008

笔者运用1997年～2008年中国家庭债务和家庭资产积累的时间序列数据,定量分析了家庭负债和家庭资产积累的关系。研究发现,家庭债务和家庭资产积累存在同向的长期均衡关系,家庭债务的变动会影响家庭资产的积累。笔者提出促进家庭资产合理配置和防范中国家庭债务快速增长带来的消极后果的相关建议,旨在为决策部门制定合理的经济政策提供参考。     

On the determinants of household debt maturity choice

This article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice. The behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis. We derive a positive relationship between the long-term discount factor δ and the optimal maturity of household loans. The cultural approach examines whether national culture is a reasonable predictor for household debt maturity. We show that culture is an important factor for households’ borrowing decisions and has even more predictive power than time preferences. Countries with higher scores on the Hofstede dimension of long-term orientation tend to have shorter household debt maturity. Time preferences incur a primarily mediating role, because the effect of national culture on the borrowing decision is reduced, as the long-term discount factor δ increases.     

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

A common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.     

The Relationship Between Saving and Credit from a Schumpeterian Perspective

After 1995, the United States experienced housing and mortgage booms, fuelled by increased lending from less regulated institutions, such as hedge funds. At the micro level, the housing boom may have left families with more wealth, but the mortgage boom may have increased their financial vulnerability. Using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, we consider both wealth creation and a select number of financial vulnerability measures of homeowners. The data indicate that the housing boom was not only associated with larger house values, but also moderated wealth gains and substantially greater financial vulnerability of homeowners. Both trends were more pronounced among middleincome and Hispanic families, who saw larger wealth gains, but also greater increases in financial vulnerability than their counterparts. Given the breadth of the spread in homeowners’ financial vulnerability alongside sharply higher house prices, our results support the link between more deregulated financial markets and rising financial instability.     

控制权视角下的外源融资选择理论和实证分析

通过构建一个统一的数理模型进行对比分析表明,不同期限条件下的债务融资和不同对象条件下的股权融资具有各自的优点;同时,通过对2007年上市公司融资偏好进行排序分析也表明,上市公司控制权对融资方式的选择起决定作用,而公司盈利能力等对融资方式的选择具有显著的影响作用.     

不同所有制下管理者过度自信与公司债务融资的关系

本文以2002—2008年我国沪深两市A股上市公司为样本,利用OLS回归模型考察了在不同所有制公司中管理者过度自信与债务融资之间的关系。研究结果显示:在不同所有制的上市公司中,管理者过度自信对公司债务融资的影响存在差异。与非国有上市公司相比,国有上市公司的管理者更加过度自信,更倾向于选择债务融资;在债务期限方面,不同所有制公司的过度自信管理者都倾向于使用长期债务,但在国有上市公司中这种倾向表现得更为显著。     

“三道红线”政策的房地产企业债务结构调整效应研究——基于双重差分法的经验证据

本文利用双重差分法考察“三道红线”政策的实施如何影响上市房企的债务结构。实证结果表明,“三道红线”政策对企业的流动负债有显著的负向影响,对长期负债有正向作用,优化调整了公司债务结构。进一步研究发现：①对于固定资产占比较低的企业而言,“三道红线”政策的实施对固定资产占比较高的企业债务结构的调整效应更明显;②国有企业和非东部地区的房企债务结构受到政策的冲击更大;③盈利能力较差,杠杆率较高的企业受到政策的冲击更大,其债务结构的调整效果更好;④政策出台使房地产企业加快营运资本流转,并有针对性地使用长债置换短债。本文在“房住不炒”的政策背景下识别出“三道红线”政策与房地产企业负债结构之间的因果关系,厘清了“三道红线”政策的作用机理,对优化房地产金融政策、降低房地产企业金融化水平有较好的借鉴意义。     

债务融资的国民负担与可承受国债规模分析

本文在对债务融资的国民负担进行描述的基础上,给出了含有非排挤性投资的政府跨时预算约束,从而证明了政府非排挤性投资的积极作用。同时,根据多马的研究范式,进一步给出了含有税收增长率的最大可承受国债规模的决定条件,并对我国目前的财政状况进行了实证分析。分析表明,积极的财政政策并没有使我国的国债规模与赤字规模超出国民经济可承受范围,我国的财政政策仍然有相当宽余的实际运作空间。     

我国上市公司融资中存在的问题

本文对我国上市公司近几年的股利分配政策、股权融资和债权融资的行为进行了深入的分析,指出了我国上市公司融资过程中存在的问题、原因以及危害。提出要规范上市公司的融资行为,一方面要提高上市公司经营者的理财意识;另一方面要为上市公司创造良好的理财环境。     

品牌效应与债务融资双重影响下的广告竞争行为

本文以广告投入较多的制造业与房地产业为研究对象,选取该行业上市公司2004—2007年的数据,实证分析品牌效应、债务融资双重影响下的企业广告竞争行为。研究结果表明:就强品牌企业而言,债务融资对产品市场具有软承诺作用;而在弱品牌企业中,债务融资表现为对产品市场的硬承诺作用。此外,不论强品牌企业的广告竞争策略存在与否,弱品牌企业的广告投资策略均不受影响。