Analysis of the impact of excess mortgages on housing prices using the cointegration test

This article attempts to explain and predict housing prices by constructing a model based on the variables that most influence demand: the theoretical purchase effort index without tax deductions as well as a new and innovative indicator that includes the excess of mortgages granted. The Johansen methodology for cointegration analysis reveals the existence of long-run equilibrium and the model’s subsequent ECM, to verify the statistical significance of the variables, confirms the validity of the model concerning this Spanish case study.     

Employment and output effects of federal regulations on small business

This paper examines the disparate impact of US federal regulations on small businesses. Using a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, we obtained two implications of higher regulation on small firms that have yet to be empirically tested in the published literature. First, as regulations increase, small firms’ share of employment shrinks. Second, as regulations rise, small firms’ share of total output falls. Using a panel of industry-specific US regulatory restrictions, we found that a 10% increase in federal regulations was associated with an approximate 0.8% reduction in small firms’ share of industry employment and a nearly 1.5% decline in small firms’ share of industry output.     

Income mobility and risk during the business cycle: Comparing adjustments in labour markets in two Latin-American countries

This paper uses panel data from Argentina and Mexico and a new measure of mobility ‐ the Gini index of mobility ‐ to answer three questions. First, is there a trend towards rising labour income mobility over time in these two countries? Second, is there a relationship between income mobility and growth common to both countries, or does that relationship depend on the institutional features of each country’s labour markets? Third, do we observe more labour income mobility within some groups such as the young and the less educated than within other groups? JEL classification: D31, E32, J63.     

State antitrust enforcement in the US and implications for small business entry and relocation

This article examines the impact of the important, yet little studied, state-level antitrust enforcement activity on entry and relocation behaviour by small US firms. Feinberg and Husted (2011) have shown that this enforcement, especially nonhorizontal cases, may be viewed by potential entrants as a negative aspect of the state business climate. However, they did not pursue a more disaggregate analysis of small firm entry behaviour; nor did they investigate different responses between manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing firms. Another related issue is the extent to which state cases filed in tandem with federal investigations have the same impact on establishment entry as do purely ‘independent’ cases. These considerations are dealt with in this article. The author uses annual state-level data from the Statistics of US Business to examine entry and relocation reactions to state antitrust enforcement by firms within three small-business categories: 1–19 employees; 20–99 employees; 100–499 employees. Generally speaking, the smallest retail and wholesale firms seem to favour vigorous antitrust activity, especially enforcement targeted against cartel behaviour by suppliers. The largest small-firm retailers and wholesalers (those with 100–499 employees) seem somewhat threatened by such activity, especially the more controversial nonhorizontal enforcement. However, it must be acknowledged that the effects on entry or relocation of small firms – both positive and negative – are quite small.     

微笑曲线与中小制造企业商业模式的转变

2008年,国际国内经济环境发生了巨大变化,国外贸易壁垒增加,国内生产成本的变化、人民币持续升值、国家金融和税收政策调整等,使得处于微笑曲线底部的中小制造企业面临严峻的考验。本文结合对微笑曲线的讨论。研究中小制造企业商业模式的转型,讨论中小制造企业可持续发展的方向。     

中国家庭债务和资产积累关系的实证分析:1997-2008

笔者运用1997年～2008年中国家庭债务和家庭资产积累的时间序列数据,定量分析了家庭负债和家庭资产积累的关系。研究发现,家庭债务和家庭资产积累存在同向的长期均衡关系,家庭债务的变动会影响家庭资产的积累。笔者提出促进家庭资产合理配置和防范中国家庭债务快速增长带来的消极后果的相关建议,旨在为决策部门制定合理的经济政策提供参考。     

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

A common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.     

Earnings mobility in Spain: the role of job mobility and contractual arrangements

This paper analyses the relationship between earnings mobility, job mobility and changes in the contractual arrangement in Spain using a sample of Spanish workers aged 16–60 years extracted from the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP 1995–2001). Overall, earnings mobility remains mostly unchanged over time, although clear differences, both in terms of levels and trends, can be perceived among different types of workers. Results show that, in general, job mobility contributes to increase earnings mobility. Switching into permanent contract are associated with the highest probability of upgrading among those workers who remain with the same employer. In contrast, the highest risk of downgrading among stayers appears when changing from permanent to temporary. An analysis on low pay/no low pay transitions reveals that job mobility always increases the probability of moving from low pay to better-paid jobs among females. For males, in contrast, this occurs only when they were initially employed on a temporary basis. Furthermore, for females it is found that either switching into permanent contract while staying with the same employer, or changing employer while being employed on a permanent basis yield a higher chance of upgrading than staying with the same employer with a permanent contract.      

Determinants of business cycles in small scale macroeconomic models: the German case

We identify measures of shocks to total factor productivity and preferences from two real business cycle models and subject them to Granger causality tests to see whether they can be considered exogenous to other plausible sources of the German business cycle. For West German data from 1960.i to 1989.iv we conclude that our measures of shocks are indeed exogenous. This contrasts with similar studies for other countries that question the exogeneity of either productivity or preference shocks. For the period 70.i to 01.iv we find that M3 Granger causes all of our shock measures. We attribute this to the breaks in our time series associated with the German reunification in 1990 and the European Monetary Union in 1999.Earlier versions of this paper circulate as University of Augsburg economics discussion paper no. 213 and Kiel Institute for World Economics working paper no. 1158, respectively.     

Sustainable mobility transitions and the challenge of countervailing trends: the case of personal aeromobility

Research on sustainable mobility transitions has focused on battery-electric vehicles, urban ‘smart’ cars, fuel-cell powered transport modes and power-assisted bicycles. While these studies have usefully exposed some of the dynamics governing sociotechnical change, developments outside the purview of sustainability have been largely ignored. A critical area of neglect concerns the growing popularity of personal aeromobility. Passenger dissatisfaction with commercial airlines, public concerns about terrorism, increasing affluence and creative marketing have expanded interest in private aviation. In parts of the USA, customised air travel is becoming a straightforward and affordable transport alternative. This article describes the mounting popularity of four segments of this trend: business/personal airplane acquisition, fractional aircraft ownership, flight-time cards and air taxis. It also highlights the role that the federal government is currently playing to overcome the technological obstacles to more pervasive personal aeromobility. A concluding section considers the ramifications of these activities on contemporary efforts to foster sustainable mobility and to conceptualise viable transition pathways.     

乡村旅游规模化经营研究——基于“天目村农家乐”的调查

以天目村农家乐为例进行实证研究,试图运用生产三阶段理论和规模报酬理论,分别从短期和长期两方面对该村的农家乐经营阶段进行判断,结果显示,天目村农家乐目前处于从最初的很小的生产规模开始逐步扩大的时期,面临规模报酬递增的阶段。因此,解决天目村乃至整个中国乡村旅游的规模化经营问题已迫在眉睫。     

Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory

An Austrian interpretation of the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is proposed. Austrian and New Keynesian business cycle theories share the feature that the cycle is generated by rigidities which prevent the economy from adapting instantaneously to changing conditions. Austrian business cycle theory is capital-based, focusing on credit expansion which artificially lowers interest rates and causes an investment boom and unsustainable business expansion. In contrast, the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is based on nominal rigidities which prevent markets from clearing. Small menu costs introduce dichotomous behavior, where firms find it locally optimal to avoid instantaneous output price adjustments in the face of the cost, but this local optimum results in economy-wide output and employment fluctuations which are much greater in relative magnitude. The small menu cost model of the business cycle is extended and reinterpreted in light of Austrian business cycle theory with heterogeneous, multiply-specific capital, thus providing a rigorous formalization of the Austrian business cycle. The Austrian interpretation of this New Keynesian model fortuitously addresses several of its shortcomings. JEL classification B53, E12, E23, E32     

The effects of the intensity,timing and persistence of personal history of mobility on support for redistribution in transition countries

This paper examines the effect of the intensity, timing and persistence of personal history of mobility on individual support for redistribution. Using both rounds of the Life in Transition Survey, we build measures of downward mobility for about 57,000 individuals from 27 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. We find that more intensive, recent and persistent downward mobility increases support for redistribution. Accounting for systematic bias in perceived mobility experience and omitted variable bias and considering alternative definitions of redistributive preferences do not alter the basic results.     

教育融资体制对代际流动性与不平等程度的动态影响：基于OL G模型的分析

传统的代际流动性研究并没有对代际流动性的短期值和长期值作有效区分,也未考虑人力资本形成中的不确定性,因而“代际流动性越高则不平等程度越低”这一分析结论并未在中国的现实中呈现。文章据此通过构建一个代际交叠模型比较分析了公共教育体制和市场教育体制下的代际流动性。模型动态分析发现：(1)公共教育体制下的不平等程度的长期值比市场教育体制下更低。(2)代际流动性短期值的升高并不总是伴随着不平等程度的下降,当社会受到某种剧烈冲击时可能发生两者同升同降的情况。(3)政府进行激进式的教育体制改革会使人力资本收敛速率发生跃升,并且使不平等程度的短期值和长期值都增大,而代际流动性则会在突降后在逐渐收敛到新的更低的稳态值。(4)人力资本积累不确定性参数值反映了个体不可观测的技能或先天禀赋,是影响代际流动性和不平等程度的重要因素。不确定性的突然上升会使不平等程度的短期值迅速上升,并且会使不平等程度的长期值达到新的高位,虽然代际流动性短期值也会迅速上升,但依旧会逐渐收敛到以前的稳态值不变。文章的研究有益于厘清代际流动性与不平等程度的复杂关系,也能为相关实证研究提供参考。     

Analyzing the role of mutual guarantee societies on bank capital requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises

This paper analyzes the impact of the guarantee provided by mutual guarantee societies (MGSs) on the risk premium that banks should charge for small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans under the new Basel Capital Accords (Basel II and III). We also examine whether the foreseeable decrease in the theoretical credit risk premium would be compensated by the cost of the MGS guarantee. To do so, we develop a rating system for SMEs that uses a large sample of Spanish firms over the period from 2005 to 2009. We find that the final effect of the guarantee on the SME risk premium depends on the values taken by the credit variables of the MGS (essentially, the probability of default).     

The fostering factors in the occurrence of rural small industries and enterprises in the Northeast of Thailand

The rural small industry and enterprise have a close relation with the regional development. Although they generated job and income, the number of them increased quite low in the area. The previous study focused on the financial support on the hypothesis of lack of capital. Many agencies had provided the variety fund, but the number of them increased not so high. In the study, the author focuses in the management background on the basis that capital is the important issue but not the major factor. The management background should have a role. The author studies 370 small industries and enterprises of every type in the region. The study found that the major three issues that are the fostering factors in the occurrence of them are management background, capital, and creative thinking. Management background of entrepreneur that relate directly to their experience is a major factor rather than capital. The regression coefficient show significantly. The study can bring new strategy to develop them in the future.     

Complementarities of human capital and information technology: small businesses,emerging economy context and the strategic role of firm resources

How information technology (IT) may complement other key firm resources such as human capital is a question that has drawn increasing attention from scholars and practitioners. Answers to this question are crucial for small businesses in today’s environment. These businesses face a growing demand for IT usage at the same time that they typically can count only on limited resources. This has become a common situation that is particularly critical for small businesses operating in developing countries with emerging economies. We develop propositions and test them with a dataset of service small businesses in an emerging economy. We find that the use of IT services is positively related to firm productivity and that this relationship is positively moderated by entrepreneurs’ management education. Our findings indicate that firm productivity is associated with a combination of human and technology resources.     

Income mobility and the Arab spring: the case of Egypt and Jordan

Arab Spring has swept Middle East and North Africa. Although the reasons behind this revolutionary albeit mostly unfruitful social phenomenon is unknown, economic reasons such as income inequality and lack of income mobility have been mentioned. Using an approach that is free of measurement error and attrition biases, this study estimates income mobility in a country that went through Arab Spring, Egypt, and compares that with a similar country that did not experience it, Jordan. The results show that unconditional and conditional income mobility were substantially smaller in Egypt than Jordan. This has implications for the policy-makers not just in the Middle East but the world.     

新零售商业模式场景化创新的理论框架与实现路径研究

随着场景化要素在新零售嵌入程度的逐渐深入,一方面凸显出新零售商业模式未能紧跟时代发展的事实;另一方面也为新零售商业模式的加速创新提供了条件.从商业模式的场景化视角出发,首先对现有新零售商业模式进行解构,其次将场景化要素融入解构的商业模式要素之中,使商业模式要素具有场景化功能,进而形成新零售商业模式创新的理论框架,再次以新零售商业模式的场景化价值重构为触点,以新零售商业模式的场景化创新为痛点,设计了新零售商业模式场景化创新的实现路径.最后运用多案例的研究方法对新零售商业模式的场景化创新进行实证,研究结果表明场景化是新零售商业模式创新的方向,价值主张是新零售商业模式创新的遗传物质,而场景化商业情境配置则是新零售商业模式创新的核心能力.     

Risks, Financing Constraints, and High Savings Ratio in the Rural Economy of China: A Model Incorporating Precautionary Savings and Liquidity Constraints

This paper makes an in-depth investigation on the phenomenon of high savings rate in the rural economy of China between 1978 and 2003. On the basis of precautionary savings theory, we construct a model incorporating the risks, liquidity constrains, and aging population to explain the existence of high savings rate in the rural economy of China. We measure risks with Gini coefficient and marginal propensity to save. We find that these risk indices are positively associated with the higher savings rate and the higher degree of prudence of rural households. Our findings pose an urgency of the reform of rural financial system and the improvement in social security system in the rural economy of China. Translated from Economic Science, 2005, (1) (in Chinese)