Dynamic models of religious conformity and conversion: Theory and calibrations

This paper develops overlapping generations models to explain and simulate changes in the proportion of secular and religious people. The church is modeled as generating an externality associated with “conformity-enhancing” education. Observed changes in the number of nonbelievers are explained by different birth rates among secular and religious parents and the relative proportion of young nonconformists. Calibrations for the conformity rates among secular and religious people show that the observed long-run increase in the difference between percentage of secular people in Europe and the United States can be attributed to lower conformity rates prevailing in Europe.     

The impacts of religion,political ideology,and social capital on religious and secular giving: evidence from the 2006 Social Capital Community Survey

Using a double hurdle model and data from the 2006 Social Capital Community Survey (SCCS2006) we examine religious and secular giving, focusing on the impacts of religion, political ideology and social capital. Our main results indicate that greater participation in religious activities positively impacts religious and secular giving, the intensity of religious belief increases religious giving at the expense of secular giving, religious giving by very conservative individuals is higher than for other ideological groups, and measures of social capital are very important in raising the level and likelihood of philanthropic giving.     

The explosive combination of religious decentralization and autocracy

The relationship between religion and politics is explored from a theoretical standpoint. Religious clerics can be seduced by an autocrat and political stability is at stake. The autocrat's decisions consist of two measures both capable of antagonizing religious clerics: adopting secular reforms and unduly appropriating part of the national wealth, which generally are complements. Compared to centralized religions, decentralized religions, such as Islam, tend to discourage secular reforms and corruption but those effects are not guaranteed if the autocrat accepts political instability. The main hypotheses and the central results of the theory are illustrated with regime case studies that refer to contemporary times.     

ARE THE TWIN DEFICITS REALLY RELATED?

The emergence of record current-account and fiscal deficits in the United States during the 1980s draws increasing attention to what has become known as the "twin deficit" problem. Conventional wisdom is that a shift to larger government deficits entails a decline in government saving and results in larger trade deficits, Persistently large trade deficits are troublesome because they imply a transfer of wealth to foreigners and possibly a reduction in future generations' living standards.
This paper examines whether post-World War II data for the United States reveal a long-run secular relationship between the trade deficit and the fiscal deficit. The focus is on the secular relationship since that is the one most relevant to long-run policy concerns. The authors employ three different statistical techniques: (i) a deterministic technique for separating the secular components from the cyclical components to derive secular measures of the twin deficits, (ii) a stochastic procedure to isolate the secular components, (Hi) cointegration analysis to test for a long-run equilibrium relationship.
The authors conclude that, based on the first two approaches, evidence of a positive secular relationship between the twin deficits exists only under flexible exchange rates. This relationship appears quite strong–that is, a $1 change in the fiscal deficit eventually leads to roughly a $1 change in the trade deficit. On the other hand, findings based on cointegration analysis indicate no long-run equilibrium relationship between the twin deficits. This latter finding, however, may reflect a low power of the relevant statistical tests stemming from the shortness of the sample period.     

Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-run Growth?

This paper presents an analysis of the long-run implications of short-term stabilisation policy. The analysis is based on a simple, stochastic model of an imperfectly competitive economy with nominal rigidities and an endogenous technology. By virtue of the latter, temporary shocks have permanent effects such that the cyclical and secular properties of output are related. In particular, smoother cyclical fluctuations may be associated with flatter secular trends, implying a trade-off between short-term stabilisation and long-term growth.     

Unveiling the effects of a headscarf ban: Evidence from municipal jobs in Turkey

Religious conservatism is often associated with patriarchal attitudes and deterioration of women’s rights. This conventional wisdom has motivated ubiquitous policies that limit public expressions of religion and emphasize secular values. This paper demonstrates that a policy change which undermines secularity ends up empowering women. The current article takes advantage of a unique divergence in political institutions that occurred in Turkey’s recent history to explore how revoking a headscarf ban affected employment outcomes of women in the public sector. In a difference-in-discontinuities setting, I exploit the before/after discontinuous policy variation and compare female employment within municipalities that have Islamist and secular mayors. I find that eliminating legal obstacles against observant Muslim women in the labor market improves female employment in Islamist municipalities. Yet, when women are not allowed to wear headscarves to work, Islamist mayors employ less women vis-à-vis secular mayors. Overall, findings point to unintended consequences of headscarf bans on pious women.     

中国农村"文明的冲突"

基于中国宗教发展特点,本文对宗教俱乐部模型进行了简单的扩展,用来研究宗教与传统文化、世俗文化之间的关系。使用河南农村实地调查数据,本文检验了扩展的宗教俱乐部模型所揭示的宗教替代效应。研究结果表明,宗教归信者对传统文化和世俗文化活动的参与明显小于无宗教信仰者,并且宗教的替代效应与文化活动的世俗性具有正相关关系。这些结果说明了宗教对传统文化、世俗文化替代效应的存在,宗教已经在一定程度上导致了农村分化。     

The visible minority earnings gap across generations of Canadians

Abstract To what extent the earnings gaps facing Canada’s visible minorities reflect discrimination is a question of tremendous policy interest. This paper argues that failing to account for the limited Canadian ancestry of visible minorities overestimates discrimination if immigrant assimilation is an intergenerational process. Using the 2001 and 2006 Canadian Censuses, weekly earnings, conditional on a rich set of worker and job characteristics, are compared with child immigrant, second‐, and third‐and‐higher‐generation Canadian men. The results reveal a tendency for earnings to increase across subsequent generations of visible minority, but not white, men. Though the pattern is strongest between the first and second generation, for black men it is also evident between the Canadian born with and without a Canadian‐born parent. Despite this progress, for most visible minority groups earnings gaps are identified even among third‐and‐higher‐generation Canadians.     

Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities

Oil and US stock market shocks are relevant to Canadian equities because Canada is an oil exporter exposed to market developments in the wider continent. We evaluate how the relationship between Canadian stock market indices and such external shocks change under extraordinary events. To do this, we subject statistically identified oil and S&P 500 market shocks to a surprise filter, which detects shocks with the greatest magnitude occurring over a given lookback period, and an outlier filter, which detects extrema shocks that exceed a normal range. Then, we examine how the dependence structure between shocks and Canadian equities change under the extreme surprise and outlier episodes through various co-moment spillover tests. Our results show co-moments beyond correlation are important in reflecting the changes occurring in the relationships between external shocks and Canadian equities in extreme events. Additionally, the differences in findings under extreme positive and negative shocks provide evidence for asymmetric spillover effects from the oil and US stock markets to Canadian equities. Moreover, the observed heterogeneity in the relationships between disaggregated Canadian equities and shocks in the crude oil and S&P 500 markets are useful to policy-makers for revealing sector-specific vulnerabilities and provide portfolio diversification opportunities for investors to exploit.     

Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments can account for a great deal of secular changes in the unemployment rates, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent decrease in the last 18 years. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: June 2001     

Infrastructure investment and Canadian manufacturing productivity

This paper examines the relationship between Canadian public infrastructure and private output using a Constant Elasticity and Substitution-Translog (CES-TL) cost model to describe the interaction of the public and private sectors.

We find public capital a substitute for private capital within the Canadian manufacturing sector. Additionally, the services of public capital enhance the productivity of private capital. Canadian manufacturing costs are characterized by economies of scale, indicating that less than optimal plant sizes dominated Canadian manufacturing sector during the study period. Advances in disembodied technical progress are also indicated.     

Managerial rewards and the behavior of for-profit,governmental, and nonprofit organizations: evidence from the hospital industry

Studies of mixed industries frequently focus on differential behavior between for-profit and either nonprofit or governmental producers. Substantially less is known about differences among governmental, religious nonprofit, and secular nonprofit organizations. We examine the compensation of hospital CEOs to assess the extent to which these three organizational forms pursue similar objectives. Compensation levels, the use of salaries versus bonuses as proxies for weak versus strong incentives, and the criteria organizations use to determine bonuses are analyzed. We conclude that the CEO incentive contracts at religious nonprofit, secular nonprofit, and governmental hospitals imply substantive differences in the behavior of these organizations.     

Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?

Abstract.  It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for Canadian regional outputs. Another prevalent belief is that the Canadian regions respond symmetrically to the same aggregate shocks. A common trends / common cycles decomposition of Canadian regional outputs casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis and reveals trend shocks dominate fluctuations in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in the short and long run, but not in British Columbia and the Prairies. Thus, Canadian regional output fluctuations are driven by an asymmetric and economically important set of disaggregate propagation and growth mechanisms. Our results point to a new Canadian macroeconomic research agenda. JEL classification: C32, E32, O47     

Economics research in Canada: a long-run assessment of journal publications

Abstract.  We examine the publications of authors affiliated with an economics research institution in Canada in (1) the Top-10 journals in economics according to journals' impact factors, and (2) the Canadian Journal of Economics . We consider all publications in the even years from 1980 to 2000. Canadian economists contributed about 5% of publications in the Top-10 journals and about 55% of publications in the Canadian Journal of Economics over this period. We identify the most active research centres and identify trends in their relative outputs over time. Those research centres successful in publishing in the Top-10 journals are found to also dominate the Canadian Journal of Economics . Additionally, we check the robustness of our findings with respect to journal selection, and we present data on authors' PhD origin, thereby indicating output and its concentration in graduate education.     

ON EXPORT-LED GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA AND CANADA: COINTEGRATION, CAUSALITY AND STRUCTURAL STABILITY*

This paper uses cointegration and vector-error correction (VEC) modelling to investigate whether the export-led growth hypothesis applies to Australian and Canadian exports and labour productivity. The Johansen (1988) procedure is used to test whether manufacturing and aggregate measures of exports and labour productivity are cointegrated. Exports and labour productivity are found to be cointegrated, suggesting the export-led growth hypothesis holds for the small, open Australian and Canadian economies, although the estimated cointegrating vectors suggest the relationship is of small order. The tests suggested in Hansesn (1992), for parameter stability in relationships with I(1) variables, are estimated to examine if the parameters estimated from the Johansen procedure are unstable and whether the null of cointegration can be rejected in favour of structural change. No evidence is found of parameter instability in either the Australian or Canadian long-run relationships at conventional significance levels. Estimation of VEC models suggests that exports are seen to cause productivity growth, although the quantitative impacts are again small. The reverse causality is rejected for both countries, except for the Canadian manufacturing sector for which there is a small, significant positive effect of labour productivity on manufactured exports.     

CHANGES IN CANADIAN FAMILY INCOME AND FAMILY CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY BETWEEN 1978 AND 1992

This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.     

Does confidence data help forecast business cycles? New evidence from Canada

This paper assesses the contribution of confidence – or sentiment – data for predicting Canadian economic slowdowns. A probit framework is applied to an indicator of the status of the Canadian business cycle produced by the OECD. Explanatory variables include all available Canadian data on sentiment (from four distinct surveys) as well as macroeconomic and financial data. Sentiment data are introduced either as individual variables, as simple averages (such as confidence indices) and as confidence factors extracted from larger datasets containing all available sentiment data. Results indicate that the full potential of confidence data for forecasting Canadian business cycles obtains when factor models are used and all confidence data are utilized.     

Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks

We use comprehensive firm‐level data to estimate the responses of heterogeneous Canadian retail firms to real exchange rate movements. Our analysis focuses on a period characterized by large fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, providing an opportunity to quantify both intensive and extensive margin responses in retail industries to real exchange rate shocks and to examine how those responses differ across firms, locations, and sub‐industries. Our results indicate that a real Canadian currency appreciation significantly reduces a retailer's sales, employment, and profits. The strength of this negative effect is decreasing in the distance of a retailer from the US‐Canada border. We do not find evidence of a strong relationship between real exchange rate movements and the number of operating firms nor the probability of firm survival. These findings are consistent with the view that a real Canadian dollar appreciation increases cross‐border shopping by Canadians, resulting in a negative demand shock for Canadian retailers, and the dominant response by firms to such a shock is through the intensive margin.     

The Dynamics of Tariff Retaliation Between the United States and Canada: Theory and Evidence

This paper presents theory and empirical evidence showing a retaliatory pattern in US–Canadian tariff interactions in the period 1868–1970, whereby the changes in the tariff level of each country are Granger-caused by the other. In the long run, the USA maintains the tariff changes that it initiates while the Canadian policy tends to back away from changes that it initiates. Furthermore, Canadian policy demonstrates a permanent change following US innovations, while in the long run the US tariff returns to its own internal equilibrium unaffected by innovations in the Canadian tariff.     

Religiosity and social trust: evidence from Canada

Using the latest wave of the Canadian Ethnic Diversity Survey, I investigate whether religious identity and religious intensity associate with the degree to which people trust others, controlling for a wide range of characteristics. The analysis shows that Canadian Roman Catholics are appreciably less trusting than mainline Protestants, and religious nones are situated in between these two groups. With regard to religious intensity, I find that higher commitment negatively correlates with trust in unknown others for Roman Catholics. The reverse is true for Protestants. Results also show stark cross-denominational variations within Protestantism, as two highly committed denominations of Mennonite and Pentecostal are found to be the most and the least trusting religious groups in Canada. No non-Christian religious minority is found statistically significantly less trusting than Canadian Roman Catholics. Considering particularized trust in one’s neighbours and co-workers yields comparable conclusions.