Management flexibility,price uncertainty and the adoption of carbon forestry

A price on carbon has the potential to drive significant land use change through reforestation. Understanding the likely locations and extent of these changes is therefore a key focus for researchers and policy makers. Models of reforestation based on net present values (NPV) typically compare the economic returns of carbon forestry to alternative land uses. However, these models often neglect the impact of uncertainty. Two sources of uncertainty highly relevant to carbon forestry are the opportunity cost of the land on which the trees are established (i.e. future returns from alternative land uses) and carbon prices. In addition to foregoing the current land use, a landowner making a permanent land use change such as carbon forestry is also giving up the opportunity to change management in the future, for example by changing crop mix in response to commodity price changes. We develop a Monte Carlo model to demonstrate the value of management flexibility, based on a case study property in Australia. While in the absence of management flexibility carbon forestry is more profitable than the current land use, under uncertain future commodity prices it is less attractive to a landowner. We go on to show that, even if the returns from carbon exceed those from more flexible agricultural land use, uncertainty over future carbon prices is likely to delay the adoption of carbon forestry. Overall the models presented in this paper demonstrate that the adoption of carbon forestry is likely to be substantially lower, and slower, than models based on static values would suggest.     

环洞庭湖区经济社会发展模式优化调控研究

通过分析洞庭湖区经济社会发展的条件及现状特征,找出了在国家区域经济协调发展背景下湖区经济快速发展的新契机,进而提出了湖区经济发展模式必须优化,即在产业结构优化方面:继续抓好优质粮油生产,重点发展农产品加工业、牲畜和水产养殖业、林产品加工业、特色旅游业等;在空间组织优化方面:采取三点三线开发模式,以岳阳、常德、益阳3 点...     

Local polynomial fitting and spatial price relationships: price transmission in EU pork markets

We study price transmission processes within EU pork marketsafter the implementation of the EU single market in 1993. Wecompare results derived from non-parametric regressions withthose obtained using alternative non-linear threshold models.Both techniques support the hypothesis that prices are transmittedacross spatially separate EU pig markets and provide evidencefor asymmetric price adjustments. They also suggest the existenceof a range of price differentials where equilibrating priceadjustments are less intense. Non-parametric techniques oftensuggest a higher degree of price transmission than that impliedby threshold models.     

The Role of Farmer's Behavioral Attitudes and Heterogeneity in Futures Contracts Usage

The relationship between farmers' behavioral attitudes and use of futures contracts is examined, taking into account non-directly observable variables and the heterogeneity of farmers. The relationships are tested on a stratified data sample of 440 farmers. Cluster analysis and covariance structure equation models are used to validate the relationships. Farmers are found not to be homogenous regarding the factors influencing their use of futures. Heterogeneity at the segment level masked important effects at the aggregate level, notably risk attitude. Furthermore, several psychological constructs for farmers related to market orientation, risk exposure, market performance and entrepreneurial behavior play important roles in their use of futures contracts.     

Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options

Evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices is time-dependent both as a function of calendar-time (seasonal effect) and time to maturity (maturity effect). This article extends Bates' (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seasonal and maturity effects in the volatility specification. Both in-sample and out-of-sample procedures to fit market option prices on wheat futures show that the suggested model outperforms previous published models. A numerical example shows the magnitude of pricing errors for option valuation.     

Industry consolidation and price in the US linerboard industry

Starting from the 1980s, the US paper and paperboard industry has recorded an increasing degree of consolidation through mergers and acquisitions. This strategy, combined with voluntary downtime, is adopted by producers as a method to tackle excess capacity and to reduce costs in order to improve profitability. In this study, we investigate the impact of industry consolidation on price in the linerboard industry. We estimate a dynamic demand/supply system model that explicitly incorporates market structure. We find a low own-price elasticity of linerboard demand and an insignificant substitute effect of plastic containers. Additionally, linerboard price does not seem to respond to current demand and adjusts slowly across time. Moreover, industry-operating rate shows a positive, statistically significant, but small impact on price. Although those findings suggest an oligopoly market and some degree of barometric price leadership, market concentration shows no statistically significant effect on price.     

Pareto Optimal Trade in an Uncertain World: GMOs and the Precautionary Principle

Optimal trade policy in an uncertain world is examined. Decision-maker attitudes toward uncertainty are represented in terms of the Gilboa–Schmeidler (1989) maximin expected-utility (MMEU) model. The central result is that in a two-country, general-equilibrium setting with both trading partners possessing an MMEU preference structure, Pareto optimality can require one trading partner to absorb all uncertainty in the economy if its set of priors is a subset of its trading partners. An immediate corollary is that autarky is Pareto optimal if the trading partner with the more inclusive set of priors either chooses or is endowed with a nonstochastic technology.     

充分发挥期货市场对农业农村现代化的服务功能

农产品期货市场作为我国重要的金融基础设施,历经30年探索实践,在服务农业农村现代化方面做出显著贡献.其通过提升价格发现效率、丰富风险管理手段、创新业务模式和品种等方式,对内有利于提升农业产业规范化水平,改善农业生产经营模式,促进地方优势产业发展,切实保障农民利益,对外有利于提高我国农产品的国际影响力和定价权.但中国与美...     

The Term Structure of Implied Forward Volatility: Recovery and Informational Content in the Corn Options Market

Using a flexible method, we develop the term structure of volatility implied by corn futures options with differing maturities, and evaluate its ability to predict subsequent realized price volatility. The implied forward volatilities anticipate realized volatility well. For the nearby interval, the implied forward volatilities provide unbiased forecasts, and are superior to forecasts based on historical volatilities. For more distant intervals, early-year options predict the direction and magnitude of future volatility changes about as well as a three-year moving average and better than a naïve forecast. However, later-year options display less forecast power in part due to reduced trading activity.     

我国农业保险供求主体有效合作模式的思考

近年来,我国农业保险快速发展,但仍存在着承保额不足、基础服务不完善、经营区域划分不合理等问题。本文基于农业保险合作模式的效用分析,认为政府主导下商业保险公司经营模式是比较符合我国国情,能够充分调动政府、企业、农民三方积极性的有效的农业保险组织发展模式。为了保证这一合作模式的落实,本文从完善农业保险的激励机制、保障机制和监督机制等方面提出了对策建议。     

On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices

Continuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p -values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.