The changing state–market condominium in East Asia: rethinking the political underpinnings of development

This article addresses the effects of inequality on the globalisation process. It is argued that the recent financial and economic crisis is a manifestation of a tendency of the aggregate demand to fall relatively to aggregate supply, generated by an asymmetric income distribution, which in turn both increases, and is reinforced by, the mobility of goods, capital and labour, in a process of cumulative causation. This process has not become manifest earlier due to counteracting tendencies generated by the financial system, that were disrupted during the crisis. It is also argued that mainstream economics does not have the adequate framework for explaining the crisis, and actually contributed to the crisis through its theories and policies. Hence an alternative economic framework is suggested for addressing the crisis, drawing upon the contributions of several heterodox economic traditions, especially post-Keynesianism.     

Interdependence and independence in Cantillon's Essai

Abstract

Cantillon's contribution to economic thought is widely understood to lie in his systematic examination of economic interconnectedness. The model developed here brings profits fully into price determination, casts additional light on Cantillon's treatment of distribution, and provides the first extended analysis of the policy recommendations found in part one of his Essai. These anti-urban policies are examined in relation to French urbanization and William Petty's analysis of Irish economic development.

Entrepreneurial risk-bearing is central to the Essai and this model, yet for Cantillon landlord tastes determine the economy's equilibrium position. This view is mirrored in his treatment of class mobility: only by becoming landed proprietors can entrepreneurs escape dependence and become independent or autonomous determiners of society. Indeed, social mobility actually accounts for the ‘independence’ of the landed proprietors as a group. Rent's special role stems not so much from the nature of land or agriculture – as Physiocracy would emphasize – as from the nature of the social forces determining its ownership.     

Corporate profit tax,firm entry with unemployment,and income inequality

In this paper, we provide a general equilibrium analysis of corporate profit tax on income distribution, unemployment, and wage inequality. With firm dynamics in industrial sector, we identify a new channel through which profit tax affects income and wage inequality: profit tax cut will widen not only the wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor, but also exacerbate the wage inequality of unskilled labor among different sectors. The welfare effect of profit tax cut depends on unemployment deepening (labor-distortion effect) and more manufacturing firms enter the market (business-creation effect), eroding the market share of incumbent firms (business-stealing effect).     

Against the current: Sraffa's unpublished manuscripts and the history of economic thought *

The paper throws some new light on Sraffa's contribution, using material from his yet unpublished papers. Attention focuses on Sraffa's rediscovery of the distinct character of the classical theory of value and distribution and his refutation of the Marshallian interpretation that it is only a special case of demand and supply theory, his reformulation of the classical theory, and his criticism of the alternative neoclassical theory.     

从利益集团视角审视我国的收入分配问题

改革开放二十多年来,随着有中国特色社会主义市场经济的建立和逐步完善,我国的社会主义事业也取得了辉煌的成就。同时,不可回避的是,随着改革的不断深入,许多社会转型期所特有的问题逐步凸现,其中,收入分配问题就是一个为社会广为关注的问题。关于收入差距扩大,收入分配不公的种种研究、讨论层出不穷。而这恰恰说明此问题触及了民生的关键部位,代表了广大人民的根本利益。作者借鉴西方国家相关发展经验,尝试从利益集团这个视角来分析当前出现的收入差距扩大和收入分配不公问题,并据此给出相关政策建议。     

Union bargaining power, employment, and output in a model of monopolistic competition with wage bargaining

This paper examines the implications of a rise in the bargaining power of workers on the real wage, income distribution, and the levels of employment and output using a macroeconomic model with monopolistic competition and worker-owner Nash bargaining at the firm level. It thereby provides optimizing microfoundations to Kalecki's macroeconomic analysis of the positive effect on output of a rise in trade-union power, and contrasts it with the neoclassical view based on the diminishing marginal productivity of labor.     

Keynes against Kalecki on economic method

In the past twenty years, there has been considerable debate on the “coherence” of post Keynesian economics, in view of post Keynesian economists’ ambitions to develop a paradigmatic alternative to neoclassical economics. Given the growing importance of methodological aspects in this discussion, this article addresses the differences of approach to economic theory between the fathers of the two most important strands in post Keynesian economics. We thus focus on Keynes’s criticism of Kalecki’s theory of the business cycle and the tensions between Keynes’s logical approach and Kaleki’s formal modeling. We show that in criticizing Kalecki’s theory, Keynes made use of the same methodological criticism (based on detecting logical fallacies in reasoning) he had employed to attack both the classical theory and contemporary “pseudo-mathematical” models. After illustrating these fundamental differences between Keynes and Kalecki about the proper way of doing economics, we draw some conclusions on the possible future evolution of post Keynesian economics.     

Toward the crisis: a Kaleckian-Keynesian interpretation of the instability of growth and capital accumulation in Brazil

This article examines theoretically and empirically the instability of Brazilian investment and growth for the past couple of decades, highlighting the evolution that led to the current crisis. A theoretical discussion highlights the importance of Kaleckian and Keynesian approaches in understanding the semi-stagnation of the Brazilian economy since the 1990s. Empirical evidence shows that investment has increased until 2013, but not to the point of getting the economy back on the track of high growth rates and higher investment-GDP ratios. The econometric findings are compatible with the theoretical underpinnings of investment activity based on Keynes and Kalecki and suggest the existence of room for activist policies in Brazil in order to stimulate economic activity.     

经典利息理论及其蕴含的贷款定价思想

影响金融机构贷款定价的因素是多维度的,而贷款利率的决定则是其基础。但是,当代西方经济学家在研究贷款定价时却往往忽略贷款利率的决定基础,模型设计里未能反映贷款定价的一些基本要素。与此同时,上世纪50-60年代业已发展成熟的经典利息理论回答了利率如何被决定这一重要问题,蕴含了丰富的贷款定价思想。本文通过回顾与利率决定相关的经典利息理论,指出贷款定价必须重视贷款项目的收益与风险,必须考虑银行的资产结构、市场基准利率和贷款期限,且贷款定价的研究方法应采用局部均衡的非综合模型,重点考虑微观因素。而非宏观因素。     

Silvio Gesell: “A strange,unduly neglected” monetary theorist

Abstract

In recent years negative nominal interest rates came to the attention of a wider audience as one instrument to overcome the lower zero bound to conventional monetary policy. Modern proponents trace the origin of the proposal back to Silvio Gesell, a largely forgotten German autodidactic scholar of the interwar period, whose work provides valuable insight into heterodox late nineteenth- and twentieth-century economic thinking. Against this backdrop, the present article provides a comprehensive review of Gesell’s life and social economy, firmly linking him to German anarchism of the interwar period. It suggests that Gesell not only provided a monetary theory of interest, but put forward an independent monetary theory of economic crisis that is essential in understanding the historical origins of depreciative currency proposals. Moreover, the article maintains that Gesell’s monetary theory of interest can be seen as the missing link between heterodox economics, The General Theory, and anarchist economic theory.     

当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析

2007年上半年的主要宏观经济数据显示,目前我国经济流动性过剩问题更加突出,"三过"问题不断交织,物价上涨压力不断加大.围绕这些问题,部分经济学家认为经济过热现象不断显现,加息已在所难免;而另一部分人则认为中国经济并不存在过热问题,只是投资分布不合理,加息并不能解决当前的问题.本文结合这两种观点,分析加息政策的效应,并提出对这一问题的相应看法.     

利率市场化对我国商业银行的挑战及应对策略

利率市场化是我国金融市场国际化非常重要的一步。利率市场化使中国银行业面临严峻考验。面对净利息收入减少、利率波动提高、银行竞争加剧、信用风险提高以及系统性风险加大,我国商业银行必须调整盈利结构,创新产品,拓宽利润增长点。     

On the ‘Origins’ of Sraffa’s Production Equations: A Reply to de Vivo

In this rejoinder to de Vivo’s comment on Gehrke and Kurz (2018, ‘Sraffa’s constructive and interpretive work, and Marx.’ Review of Political Economy) we first ask what could possibly be meant by seeking to identify the ‘origins’ of Sraffa’s production equations. We then show that in his comment de Vivo has abandoned his original view, according to which the magnitudes in Sraffa’s ‘first equations’ are to be interpreted in Marxian (labour) value terms, without advising the reader. In addition, we show that his ‘new’ view is not supported by evidence from Sraffa’s papers. De Vivo misconstrues several propositions of Sraffa and misunderstands his ‘reduction method’ by means of which the values of commodities are reduced to some basic product or to labour. The criticisms de Vivo levels at the interpretation advocated by us are without any foundation.     

What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?

U.S. government indebtedness and fiscal deficits increased notably following the Global Financial Crisis. Yet long-term interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields have remained remarkably low. What keeps long-term interest rates so low? This paper relies on a simple model, based on John Maynard Keynes’ view that the central bank's actions are the key drivers of long-term interest rates, to explain the behavior of long-term interest rates in the U.S. The empirical findings confirm that short-term interest rates are the most important determinants of long-term interest rates in the U.S. Contrary to conventional wisdom, higher government indebtedness has a negative effect on long-term interest rates, particularly on a long run basis. However, in the short run, higher government indebtedness has a positive effect on long-term interest rates. These are relevant for contemporary policy debates and macroeconomic theory.     

利率与银行风险承担行为的实证分析

作为货币政策传导机制中的重要中介指标,利率对银行风险承担的影响形式和路径因各国经济金融制度不同而存在差异。以中国银行业为研究对象,选择16家上市银行为样本,就2002~2013年间利率对其风险承担行为的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明:不良贷款率而不是风险资产比率更适合衡量银行风险承担行为;利率水平与不良贷款率之间的确存在着显著的反向变化关系;银行风险具有动态性和延续性;银行异质性与利率的交互作用尚没有对银行风险产生显著影响。     

Marx and Kalecki on aggregate instability and class struggle

Abstract

Michal Kalecki developed his original model of the business cycle in the early 1930s. Several versions referred as versions I, II and III have been developed until the late 1960s from which Kalecki draw three central propositions on instability and class struggle: (1) the capitalist system “cannot break the impasse of fluctuations around a static position” unless it is shocked by “semi-exogenous factors”, (2) the dynamics of the profit rate and investment – as in version I and II – may be disconnected from “class struggle” and (3) when class struggle impacts the dynamics of the economy – as in version III – this is happening in a context in which expected profitability of new investment projects is negatively related to the profit share. In this article, we want to show that each of these three proposals represents key differences with Marx.     

利息税存废的经济学分析

开征储蓄存款利息税可起到了一定的刺激消费、抑制居民储蓄存款的作用,但征税后对消费和储蓄的总效应为消费减少而储蓄增加。这是利息税对储蓄的收入效应和替代效应在中国具体的市场经济环境中综合作用的结果。为此,政府应采取措施改善居民对未来收支的预期,制定配套保障体系和税收政策,加快建设高效资本市场的步伐,引导一部分储蓄存款进入证券投资领域,合理调整居民消费和投资结构。     

Patterns of technical change: a geometrical analysis using the wage–profit rate schedule

In this paper we examine some basic stylized facts of economic growth according to the modern restatement of the classical theory of income distribution. In particular, we make use of a wage–profit frontier in order to explore the patterns of technical change experienced by a set of 18 industrialized economies, during the last 40 years. Our main purpose is to document the evolution of technical change. Using empirical evidence from the Italian industry, we also make an attempt to provide an explanation to data from a classical perspective, alternative to the standard approach founded on the aggregate production function.     

Interest rate risk estimation: a new duration-based approach

Duration is widely used by fixed income managers to proxy the interest rate risk of their assets and liabilities. However, it is well known that the convexity of the price-yield relationship introduces approximation errors that grow with changes in yield. In this article we suggest a new approach, ‘discrete duration’, which significantly improves upon the accuracy of traditional duration methods and achieves a level of accuracy close to the more complex ‘duration-plus-convexity’ measure. In particular, discrete duration performs particularly well for long dated and low coupon rate bonds where the estimation error is impressively close to zero.     

利率上调对中国住房市场影响的动态分析

构建一个简单的住房需求供给模型,从未预测到中国人民银行对利率上调和已预早测到中国人民银行要对利率进行上调两方面来分析利率上调对中国住房市场的影响。研究结果表明,利率上调通过影响住房市场供求和房租这两个途径来影响中国的住房市场,并且当住房价格上升过快时,利率上调可以作为一个调控中国房价的有效手段。