Which Characteristics Predict the Survival of Insolvent Firms? An SME Reorganization Prediction Model

The negative impact of insolvency, especially in small and medium enterprises, informs the objective of this paper: to study the characteristics of bankrupt firms to achieve a preventive diagnosis for reorganization by means of artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies such as rough set and PART methods. The AI models obtained show not only the key variables to predict insolvency, but also their relations and the critical values. Using only five firm characteristics (sector, size, number of shareholdings, return on assets, and cash ratio), our model could reduce delays and costs, since it is able to predict which firms will undergo reorganization or liquidation before the legal procedure.     

The operation of the insolvency system in the U.K.: Some implications for entrepreneurialism

An inquiry of entrepreneurs in economic theory is followed by an overview of the insolvency system in the UK. The impact of the insolvency system upon entrepreneurs in the UK is then discussed. It is concluded that while there have been ostensible attempts at reforming insolvency law, these efforts have primarily benefitted large firms. Moreover, it is maintained that the current operation of insolvency law remains principally geared toward the protection of creditors. As a consequence, small entrepreneurial firms have little or no alternative to liquidation, irrespective of the best interests of the company or its creditors. The entrepreneurial founders of these failed firms are then faced with potential disqualification and long-term, if not permanent, financial obstacle to continued entrepreneurship. It is proposed that the severity of the regime discourages the re-entry of entrepreneurs into the market thereby depriving the UK economy of an experienced and potentially vital force for innovation.     

基于供应链模式的小微企业融资服务平台创新

商业银行现存供应链融资模式呈现出量身打造不同的担保方或担保品、需要优质核心企业的特点。供应链融资模式可以很好地为小微企业解决融资难的问题,但供应链融资产品的使用率并不是很高,银行与企业之间信息不对称是主要原因。供应链融资平台成功运行,需要解决数据库建立问题,需要一定的技术支持和大量资金支撑。数据库的建立需要政府与专业的数据分析公司合作,利用大数据、云计算等技术,构建相关分析模型,可以同时为商业银行和小微企业提供了便利。小微金融服务平台提供的融资产品信息不仅来自于商业银行,还有一些担保机构、专业金融机构的服务信息。为了使平台能更好地为小微企业服务,平台还可以引入第三方物流信息。     

RESILIENCE TO CONTAGION IN FINANCIAL NETWORKS

We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in a large counterparty network and give an analytical expression for the asymptotic fraction of defaults, in terms of network characteristics. Our results extend previous studies on contagion in random graphs to inhomogeneous‐directed graphs with a given degree sequence and arbitrary distribution of weights. We introduce a criterion for the resilience of a large financial network to the insolvency of a small group of financial institutions and quantify how contagion amplifies small shocks to the network. Our results emphasize the role played by “contagious links” and show that institutions which contribute most to network instability have both large connectivity and a large fraction of contagious links. The asymptotic results show good agreement with simulations for networks with realistic sizes.     

CORRELATION UNDER STRESS IN NORMAL VARIANCE MIXTURE MODELS

We investigate correlations of asset returns in stress scenarios where a common risk factor is truncated. Our analysis is performed in the class of normal variance mixture (NVM) models, which encompasses many distributions commonly used in financial modeling. For the special cases of jointly normally and t‐distributed asset returns we derive closed formulas for the correlation under stress. For the NVM distribution, we calculate the asymptotic limit of the correlation under stress, which depends on whether the variables are in the maximum domain of attraction of the Fréchet or Gumbel distribution. It turns out that correlations in heavy‐tailed NVM models are less sensitive to stress than in medium‐ or light‐tailed models. Our analysis sheds light on the suitability of this model class to serve as a quantitative framework for stress testing, and as such provides valuable information for risk and capital management in financial institutions, where NVM models are frequently used for assessing capital adequacy. We also demonstrate how our results can be applied for more prudent stress testing.     

Country and consumer segmentation: multi-level latent class analysis of financial product ownership

The financial services sector has internationalized over the last few decades. Important differences and similarities in financial behavior can be anticipated between both consumers within a particular country and those living in different countries. For companies in this market, the appropriate choice between strategic options and the resulting international performance may critically depend on the cross-national market structure of the various financial products. Insight into country segments and international consumer segments based on domain-specific behavioral variables will therefore be of key strategic importance. We present a multi-level latent class framework for obtaining simultaneously such country and consumer segments. In an empirical study, we apply this methodology and several alternative modeling approaches to data on ownership of eight financial products. Information is available for 15 European countries, with a sample size of about 1000 consumers per country. We find that both country segments and consumer segments are highly interpretable. Also, consumer segmentation is related to demographic variables such as age and income. Our conclusions feature implications, both academic and managerial, and directions for future research.     

The Way into Bankruptcy: Market Anomie and Sacrifice Among Portuguese Consumers

Portugal ranks among the EU27 countries with higher levels of consumer indebtedness. Contrary to the trend observed in countries with similar indebtedness rates, Portugal has one of the lowest rates of consumer default. Previous studies (e.g., Frade et al. 2006) have identified three strategies that have contributed to keep levels of credit default low: reliance on savings, financial support from relatives and friends, and cuts in household expenses. These strategies have been widely used for the last decade and have been strained since the very beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007. We argue that these three strategies are near to collapse and consequently the levels of consumer default will rise steeply in the next years. The savings rate in Portugal has been declining over time, and the social networks are limited in their action due to the current crisis that affects everyone. In this article, we advance the hypothesis that sacrificing living standards is rooted on collective beliefs about the current economic crisis in Portugal and trust in political and market agents in line with the Theory of Market Anomie (Karstedt and Farrall 2006). The conclusions are based on macroeconomic statistics and on the results of a Web survey of 1244 Portuguese households, which focuses on attitudes towards the financial crisis, trust in political and economic institutions, and strategies to cope with the crisis. The results show that trust in financial companies (banks and insurance companies) and in the European Parliament promotes a sense of empowerment to contribute to the country economic restoration. This attitude induces citizens to avoid default by sacrificing living standards. But in the current austerity context, with low levels of trust in political institutions and detachment of the economy, consumers will be less prone to sacrifice. In this scenario, credit default and insolvency is expected to rise especially in those households most exposed to unemployment and to cuts in social benefits. This reality puts a huge and growing pressure on bankruptcy procedure, civil courts, and economic and social policies. Some adjustments should be made to the Portuguese Bankruptcy Code by facilitating and simplifying the bankruptcy regime in order to accommodate the increase in insolvency cases. But the improvement of the insolvency procedure will not resolve the situation of financial distress if the structural causes persist, such as unemployment and deterioration of salaries, and cuts in social benefits. A reform of the Bankruptcy Code facilitating and simplifying the bankruptcy regime should be coupled with measures that boost the economy and stimulate the labour market. Otherwise, Portuguese households will not have the resources necessary to benefit from the bankruptcy process and regain the control over their financial lives.     

Bank board network and financial stability in emerging markets

This study finds that the board network is related to improvements in the financial stability of banks given by asset quality, insolvency risk and volatility of profits. Further, the board network is more critical for the private sector banks in India. The board network also improves the performance of banks, providing evidence in favor of the integrated resource dependence view of the board. Well-connected boards increase information availability and reduce the information asymmetry between the bank and its borrower. For financial firms, restricting the number of directorial positions for bank directors may not have any desirable effect on bank outcomes.     

Cherchez la Femme? Differential Validity in Models of Risky Household Financial Behavior

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the choice of household informant for psychological variables included in models of risky household financial behavior matters to the empirical researcher. Five research hypotheses are posited in relation to this purpose, which concentrate on evaluating results from different correlation and regression analyses based on behavior measured at the household level, but with psychological data drawn from either the family financial officer (FFO) or the spouse in family households (N = 807). A sample of one-person households from the same database was used as control group (N = 211).It could not be shown directly that the amount of explained variance differed significantly between multiple regression analyses, in which the psychological data were drawn from different informants. However, other tests and analyses strongly indicate that including FFO data increased the validity of the model, while the inclusion of spouse data gave a marginally positive, albeit statistically significant, effect. The interpretation of the model also differs when different informants' data are used. One-person household data used to estimate an identical model seemed to produce a better fit than family household data. Finally, measures of "couple" variables showed stronger agreement between spouses than "individual" variables. Zero-order correlations between psychological variables and measures of risky financial behavior differed significantly between spouses in a few cases.The implication is that in this behavioral domain, psychological data must be collected from the family financial officer, while the spouse can be excluded without any severe consequences. This will also reduce the need to eliminate households from the analysis because of partial non-response.     

How does Financial Distress Affect Small Firms’ Financial Structure?

This paper provides new evidence on the financial structure of small firms by emphasizing the role played by financial distress. We specify a model of debt adjustments that allows us to investigate the specific nature of the adjustment process towards target debt levels in small firms, which is then extended to account for the effect of financial distress on financial structure decisions. Our models were estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments on a data panel of small Portuguese firms during a period of recession, in which a substantial proportion of the companies analyzed faced a financial distress situation. We find that small firms do adjust their debt ratios towards target levels, the speed of adjustment being faster in the shorter term. Our results also indicate that there are major differences in the determinants of long-term and short-term debt, highlighting the role played by debt maturity in explaining a firm’s financial structure. Finally, random behavior is observed in financially distressed firms, who seem to be disoriented when making their financial structure decisions.     

Replacement-cost-adjusted valuation ratio as a discriminator among takeover target and nontarget firms

The financial characteristics of 65 firms were examined to test the hypothesis that the valuation ratio is a primary determinant of whether a firm will be the target of a takeover attempt. The valuation ratio is defined as the market value of the firm divided by the net current value of its individual assets and liabilities. The study examined a sample of takeover targets that were matched with nontarget firms on the basis of industry and size. Multiple discriminant analysis was used to examine the importance of various financial variables, and the valuation ratio was consistently the most important variable in the discriminant models.     

Security Mechanisms for Insolvencies in the Package Travel Sector: an Economic Analysis

Company insolvencies can lead to potential financial losses for consumers. Insolvency can clearly also create a severe problem for consumers who are disappointed because the travel that they were anticipating cannot take place or has to be interrupted. Insolvency may create a negative image for the entire travel sector as well; as a result, the sector itself has developed a variety of guarantee mechanisms. Moreover, governments in some legal systems have also intervened to guarantee compensation to consumers who are confronted with an insolvent travel company. The mechanisms in this respect are quite divergent. In addition, this phenomenon of providing security in the case of insolvency in the package travel sector has not yet been analysed from an economic perspective. Nevertheless, these mechanisms pose interesting questions from an economic viewpoint, inter alia with respect to the rationale for creating such a mechanism, but also related to the issue of whether either the sector itself or the government should organise a security mechanism. The goal of this paper is therefore to examine mechanisms geared to ensure financial compensation to consumers in instances of insolvencies in the package travel sector. A law and economics approach will be used to critically review these security mechanisms. In this ambit, the different mechanisms opted for in the UK, The Netherlands, and Sweden will be displayed and analysed.     

Competition and bank stability in the MENA region: The moderating effect of Islamic versus conventional banks

This paper investigates the impact of competition on bank stability using data from 276 banks across eighteen MENA countries between 2006–2015. We controlled for financial inclusion, productivity, and macroeconomic instability in addition to several different control variables, including bank size, efficiency, diversification and leverage. The two-step system GMM suggested that banks facing little competition tended to take less insolvency and credit risks and enjoy more profitability. Furthermore, we found that the competition-fragility effect is more prominent for Islamic banks than conventional ones in MENA countries. This study contains some significant policy implications for regulators looking to improve bank stability.     

An Empirical Approach to the Financial Behaviour of Small and Medium Sized Companies

This paper shows how the financial behaviour of small and medium sized companies is influenced by size and business sector. This idea underlies two research approaches to capital structure: (i) credit rationing, and (ii) the pecking order theory. Both approaches are based on asymmetric information and have been widely developed over the past two decades. An analysis has been carried out on 1000 Valencian companies that were randomly selected from the state company registry. These companies were divided by size before analysis. As an innovation, the investigation implements a multivariate MANOVA model that takes into account two key variables in the financing of small and medium firms. Our results show that size influences company self-financing strategies, and that business sector influences short-term financial policy.     

Using financial ratios to predict insolvency

The purpose of this study is to explore the feasibility of using financial ratios as an analytical technique to predict financial insolvency. Using discriminant analysis, a credit-risk score was calculated to determine if a lender should accept or reject a prospective borrower. This study reveals that 80% of the cases were correctly predicted by this model.     

Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate

This paper investigates the extent to which modern DSGE models, which feature local currency pricing, home bias, nontraded goods, and incomplete markets, can generate nonlinear real exchange rate dynamics that are consistent with those found in the time series literature using data from the current floating period. Our key findings are as follows. First, if the true model can be appropriately characterized as a set of linear equations, then linearity tests that utilize univariate autoregressions of the real exchange rate suffer from an omitted variables problem, which leads them to overestimate the true incidence of nonlinearity. Consequently, studies that fail to control for this problem may spuriously find evidence of nonlinearities in the data, despite the fact that the data generating process may be linear. Second, we propose a strategy that can largely eliminate this distortion. Finally, we find that DSGE models solved using higher order approximations are capable of generating true structural nonlinearities in real exchange rates both asymptotically and in short samples.     

Corporate Social and Financial Performance Re-Examined: Industry Effects in a Linear Mixed Model Analysis

In this research, we shed new light on the empirical link between corporate social performance (CSP) and corporate financial performance (CFP) via the application of empirical models and methods new to the CSP?CCFP literature. Applying advanced financial models to a uniquely constructed panel dataset, we demonstrate that a significant overall CSP?CCFP relationship exists and that this relationship is, in part, conditioned on firms?? industry-specific context. To accommodate the estimation of time-invariant industry and industry-interaction effects, we estimate linear mixed models in our test of the CSP?CCFP relationship. Our results show both a significant overall CSP effect as well as significant industry effects between CSP and CFP. In conflict with expectations, the unweighted average effect of CSP on CFP is negative. Our industry analysis, however, shows that in over 17% of the industries in our sample, the effect of CSP on CFP for socially responsible firms is positive. We also examine the multidimensional nature of the CSP construct in an industry context by exploring the CSP dimension?Cindustry nexus and identify dimensions of social performance that are associated with either better or worse financial performance. Our results confirm the existence of disparate CSP dimension?Cindustry effects on CFP, thus our results provide important and actionable information to decision makers considering whether and how to commit corporate resources to social performance.     

Financial literacy education and behaviour unhinged: combating bias and poor product design

The growth of products available in the consumer financial market has provided more choice and formal control over household financial decisions than ever before. Financial literacy education programs are generally assumed to improve consumer behaviour in relation to financial products and services. However, there is scant evidence that demonstrates the causal link between education, literacy and behaviour. Through the use of a sample study, we show that the actions of individuals who are financially literate do not necessarily mean they will demonstrate good financial behaviour. We propose that in order to improve the financial behaviour of consumers, two critical areas need to be addressed. Firstly, the objectives of financial literacy programs should be not only to educate consumers about financial markets and products but highlight to individuals the psychological biases and limitations that they as humans cannot easily avoid. Secondly, the regulation of financial products sold to consumers needs alteration to meet the aim of protecting retail consumers from complex financial products that are confusing, ambiguous and inappropriate. We propose regulation and redesign of product information offerings using techniques employed in ecological interface design models to derive a suitability test for consumer financial products.