欧盟关于气候变化政策的新进展

本文分析了欧盟理事会2008年3月批准了欧盟气候与能源的一揽子行动计划的背景,提出：欧盟高度重视气候变化,除了因为气候变化已经日益影响人类的生活外,主要是基于自身能源、经济增长和就业的考虑。分析了欧盟实现减排的方式,更新的排放交易机制将是主要手段,还有发展可再生能源、提高能效、利用清洁发展机制,以及应用碳捕捉与储存技术等,指出：欧盟气候变化关键目标是“两个20％”,即：到2020年,温室气体排放至少减少20％,能源消费中可再生能源的份额占20％。     

Optimal Timing of Climate Change Policy: Interaction Between Carbon Taxes and Innovation Externalities

This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) on the timing of climate change policy. We develop a model with a stock pollutant (carbon dioxide) and abatement technological change through R&D, and we use the model to study the interaction between carbon taxes and innovation externalities. Our analysis shows that the timing of optimal emission reduction policy strongly depends on the set of policy instruments available. When climate-specific R&D targeting instruments are available, policy has to use these to step up early innovation. When these instruments are not available, policy has to steer innovation through creating demand for emission saving technologies. That is, carbon taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when the abatement industry is developing. Finally, we calibrate the model in order to explore the magnitude of the theoretical findings within the context of climate change policy.      

Spatial and Temporal Efficiency in Climate Policy: Applications of FUND

FUND is an integrated assessment model of the interactions between climate and economy. Nine world regions emit greenhouse gases, and suffer damages from climate change. A number of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are compared, including optimal and cost-effective strategies, strategies with early and late abatement, and strategies with and without international co-operation. The analyses confirm that co-operation matters, resulting in substantially lower costs or higher welfare. The real commitments of policy targets based on an absolute level (e.g., 1990 emissions) are hard to estimate because of the uncertainties in the baseline. Postponing action conflicts with minimising costs and maximising welfare, but so does sharp emission reduction at the short-term as proposed in the Kyoto Protocol.     

APEC气候变化合作与中国的策略选择

文章对APEC气候变化合作的背景、发展、意义和前景进行了政治经济分析,并着重阐释了美国和日本的气候政策及其对APEC气候变化合作的影响。在此基础上,文章指出了中国参与APEC气候变化合作的必要性,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

Uncertainty and Climate Change

Uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climatechange. How should economists allow for this? And how have they allowed for it? This paperreviews both of these questions.     

Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change

Academic and policy debates over climate change risks and policies have stimulated economic research in a variety of fields. In this article I briefly discuss eight overlapping areas of current research in which further effort is particularly warranted. These areas include decision criteria for policy; risk assessment and adaptation; uncertainty and learning; abatement cost and the innovation and diffusion of technology; and the credibility of policies and international agreements. Further analysis in these areas not only will advance academic understanding but also will provide insights of considerable importance to policymakers.     

技术政策需求分析模型及其在应对气候变化领域的应用

针对目前在技术政策的制定与实施方面我国与发达国家有较大差距的现状,引入技术生命周期理论,建立技术政策需求分析模型;并应用于应对气候变化领域:在综述国内外应对气候变化的技术政策实施现状的基础上,通过列表对比分析,最终得出我国应对气候变化的技术政策需求,以期为政策制定者提供决策参考,为我国应对气候变化目标顺利实现提供政策支持。     

Games of Climate Change with International Trade

We analyse games of greenhouse gas emission reduction in which the emissions and the emission reduction costs of one country depend on other countries' emission abatement. In an analytically tractable model, we show that international trade effects on costs and emissions can either increase or decrease incentives to reduce emissions and to cooperate on emission abatement; in some specifications, optimal emission reduction is unaffected by trade. We therefore specify the model further, calibrating it to larger models that estimate the costs of emission reduction, trade effects, and impacts of climate change. If trade effects are driven by total emission reduction costs of other countries cooperation is slightly more difficult than in the case without trade effects. If trade effects are determined by relative emission reduction efforts in other countries, cooperation becomes easier. Carbon leakage does not affect our qualitative insights, although it does change the numbers.     

Climate Change and the Representative Agent

The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.     

气候变化伦理研究评述

气候变化日益成为国际社会的一个热门话题。关于对气候变化问题的国际辩论经历了一个从科学、经济学和政治学争论到伦理争论的历程。气候变化是一个典型的＂全球伦理问题＂,气候变化伦理问题的关键是利益冲突。要解决＂缓解＂和＂适应＂气候变化、碳排量分配的合理性、发展中国家的发展空间及其补偿等一系列问题,必须要对气候公正原则、共同而有区别的责任等问题获得共识。     

吉林省建筑节能政策分析与框架构建

经济的持续发展,需要建筑节能政策的大力护航。阐述吉林省建筑节能政策的现状,并对其存在问题加以分析,从节能宣传、筹资机制、能效标识、激励机制四个环节,提出节能政策框架,对于政府完善节能建筑政策提供一定参考。     

Diminishing Returns: Carbon Market Crisis and the Future of Market-Dependent Climate Change Finance

The current and future costs of meeting climate change mitigation needs in the global South vastly exceed levels of available funding from public sources in the North. As a possible solution to this problem, policy-makers and various observers have pushed increasingly for the adoption of market-based carbon financing strategies, with the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) representing the most consistent application of this approach to date. Nevertheless, market-based carbon finance remains highly volatile given its heavy dependence on conditions in the broader global carbon market which remains in the throes of a devastating crisis, earning carbon the distinction of 2011s worst performing global commodity. By demonstrating that it is through carbon's market price that finance-generating investment in the CDM is largely derived, and which also determines the ex post value of CDM projects, this paper argues for the decoupling of climate change finance from carbon's market value. The need to do so is particularly pressing since, it is argued, the current crisis in the global carbon market reflects an embedded crisis tendency in that market, born in part from the political machinations through which it was born and which leaves it prone to persisting crises of oversupply.     

Risk Aversion, Intergenerational Equity and Climate Change

The paper investigates a climate-economy model with an iso-elastic welfare function in which one parameter measures relative risk-aversion and a distinct parameter measures resistance to intertemporal substitution.We show both theoretically and numerically that climate policy responds differently to variations in the two parameters. In particular, we show that higher but lower leads to increase emissions control. We also argue that climate-economy models based on intertemporal expected utility maximization, i.e. models where = , may misinterpret the sensitivity of the climate policy to risk-aversion.     

Emission Taxes and Tradeable Permits A Comparison of Views on Long-Run Efficiency

We compare three different views on the long runefficiencies of emission taxes which includethresholds (inframarginalexemptions), and of tradeable emission permitswhere some permits areinitially free. The differences are caused bydifferent assumptions aboutwhether thresholds and free permits should besubsidies given only to firmsthat produce, or full property rights. Treatingtax thresholds, as well asfree permits, as property rights would departfrom the conventional view,but would allow greater flexibility in makingeconomic instruments bothefficient and acceptable. Such flexibilitycould be very important inachieving efficient control of greenhouse gasemissions.     

加拿大应对气候变化新举措

近年来，全球性极端天气频仍，气候变化议题引起全球热切关注。加拿大是温室气体排放大国之一，人均排量更是名列前茅。近两年，加拿大出台了一系列减排和节能增效的政策和措施，同时加大力度促进清洁技术的开发和部署，希望在现有技术优势的基础上引领新能源时代。本文对加拿大近年为应对气候变化采取的政策和措施进行解读分析，发现一些可供借鉴之处。     

Efficient Climate Policy with Internationally Mobile Firms

A major concern in the design of an incomplete climate agreement is thatfirms that use fossil fuels intensively may respond to emission regulationsby relocating their plants from cooperating to non-cooperating countries.This paper analyses how the cooperating countries might deal with the issueof firm delocation through emission taxes, trade provisions and alocalisation subsidy to mobile firms. It is shown that firms should not beinduced to stay in the cooperating countries by lowering emission taxesbelow the Pigouvian tax rate. Incentives to stay should be given partlythrough trade provisions and partly through a localisation subsidy. A secondbest solution without localisation subsidies is also discussed. In thatcase, the efficient emission tax is lower than the Pigouvian tax rate.Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the first best and thesecond best policy regimes for the pattern of firm localisation.     

能源效率变动分解模型及其实证研究——基于云南省6大城市群

利用对数平均权重拉氏分解方法,构建了能源效率变动分解模型。利用2005—2013年云南及其6大城市群的相关数据,实证分析了此期间云南6大城市群的效率因素和结构因素的变化对云南能源效率的影响。结果显示:2005—2013年期间,云南总体和6大城市群的能源效率均有所提升,而6大城市群能源效率的提升速率有所不同;云南6大城市群的效率因素主导了云南总体能源效率的提升;滇中城市群结构因素的变动导致云南总体能源效率提升,而其他5大城市群结构因素的变动导致云南总体能源效率下降。     

德国能效管理及对我国节能减排工作的思考

全球能源资源紧缺是当前人类经济社会可持续发展面临的重要挑战。提高能源利用效率,减少污染减排,已成为世界各国应对气候变化、保障能源安全和保护生态环境共同任务。德国是全球第五大能源消费国。由于国内能源资源有限,德国政府高度重视能源能效管理并取得了较大成效：1990-2008年,德国经济年均增长1．7％,但其能源消费总量却下降了约6％。本文在调研德国能源能效管理和节能减排最新进展的基础上,对其政策体系、管理机制和研发创新情况进行了分析,并对我国进一步推动节能减排工作提出了建议。     

加拿大应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略

随着气候变化的加剧,极端天气越来越多,越来越激烈,与气象相关的灾难越来越多。不少国家已经或开始制定应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略。有专家认为,加拿大的应急反应和灾后恢复是世界上做得最好的。本文试图从立法、防灾减灾国家战略、应急准备计划、政府职能、应急管理、国家灾害管理系统、气候变化及防灾减灾研究、基础设施应对气候变化下的标准与规范、灾害风险与薄弱环节评估、突发事件应急反应的气象预警、应急管理教育与培训、全国性防灾减灾网络等多个方面,深入研究分析加拿大应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略,供大家参考。     

系统论视野下我国应对气候变化立法研究

气候变化是人类面临的一个空前复杂的综合性问题.我国易受气候变化影响,面临着国际应对气候变化的减排压力,而我国应对气候变化立法供给严重不足,无法系统应对气候变化.我国有必要借鉴国际和域外国家应对气候变化立法经验,以生态中心主义理念为指导,运用系统论的理论和方法修订《环境保护法》,实现对各环境介质的系统保护,制定应对气候变化专门法及配套法规、规章,完善相关法律法规,实现对气候变化的系统性立法防治,保持气候系统结构和功能总体平衡稳定.