The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

The London Business School econometric model of the UK

This paper describes the London Business School econometric model — the first fully computerized model of the UK — which has been used for regular public forecasting since 1966. The model, estimated on quarterly data, is organized around the income expenditure accounts with a fully integrated flow of funds sector which ensures consistency between portfolio decisions and income, savings and investment decisions. Aggregate demand is built up from its individual components so that demand influences are important for the short- and medium-term behaviour of the model. But there are important supply-side effects which work through the real exchange rate and real wages. Monetary conditions have a powerfull effect on the model through the exchange rate, personal sector wealth and interest rates. Wages and employment are determined in a labour market in which employment decisions depend on the level of demand and real wages while real wages depend on the level of unemployment, real benefits and direct and indirect taxes as well as underlying trends in productivity. Asset prices move in any period to clear both the spot and the future market in assets so that current asset prices in the equity, gilt-edged and foreign exchange markets reflect all current information about the expected state of the economy. In contrast, goods prices adjust sluggishly. The combination of continuously clearing asset markets and sluggish wages and prices gives the model many of the theoretical characteristics associated with the open-economy models of Dornbusch and Buiter and Miller.     

Monetary policy in the BOF3 quarterly model of the Finnish economy

This paper describes the modelling of monetary policy in BOF3, a quarterly econometric model of Finland built at the Research Department of the Bank of Finland. BOF3 is a 198-equation, ‘amended Keynesian’ model which is used regularly in policy analysis and forecasting at the Bank. The modelling of the Finnish monetary sector has been complicated by the fact that most interest rates applied by the banks have so far been institutionally regulated. In spite of this, model builders have attempted to follow the conventional IS-LM approach as closely as possible, assuming that interest rates equilibrate financial markets outside the banking sector. The reported simulation experiments describe the effects of a change in nomical interest rates, of a change in the domestic money supply, and of a fiscal stimulus with and without monetary accomodation.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

A disequilibrium macroeconomic model of the Belgian economy : The Maribel II model of the Planning Bureau

This paper describes the Maribel II model, a model used by the Belgian Planning Bureau for analysing and simulating macroeconomic changes in the Belgian economy. Its main feature is that it is a disequilibrium model (for both the product and the labour market). During the construction of the model considerable attention was given to its theoretical underpinning. The steady state properties show that the mechanisms are mainly classical with a strong dependence on foreign influences. The multiplier analysis confirms the relatively small multipliers in Belgium and also shows the richness that a disequilibrium model provides for analysing particular policies.     

A forecasting model of the Kenyan economy

A demand-oriented macroeconometric model of the Kenyan economy is developed and estimated in line with the cointegration technique. The estimated structure of the model is used to perform policy simulation experiments to determine the sensitivity of key macroeconomic variables to changes in exchange rate, net government current expenditure and nominal interest rate. The results of policy simulation experiments reveal that the exchange rate and fiscal policies are relatively more effective than the monetary policy, i.e. changing the nominal interest rate, in influencing the level of economic activity. The results point to the possibility of devaluation improving the international trade balance.     

Ghana and the international cocoa market, 1956–1969 : A simulation model

This paper investigates the impact of the international cocoa market on Ghana between 1956 and 1969 by constructing and estimating an econometric model and simulating the effects of fluctuations in selected cocoa variables on her export revenue. In particular, it assesses repercussions of changes in the real incomes of major cocoa-consuming countries, of changes in the rest of the world's cocoa output, and of changes in the real price paid to Ghanaian cocoa farmers. Our results emphasize the vulnerability of Ghana to shocks emanating from the international economy, and the importance of dynamic lagged adjustment in the cocoa market.     

KVARTS - a quarterly model of the Norwegian economy

This paper presents the main characteristics of the first version of a quarterly 12 sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy. The general purpose of the project is to obtain a framework for quantitative analysis of the short-term development of the economy. Quarterly national accounts data constitute a main data source, but short- term statistics outside the national accounting system also play a significant role in the model structure. The model's main structure and basic theoretical properties are presented, selected estimation results for single equations are reported and some experiences from simulation experiments performed on selected model blocks and by means of the complete model are given.     

A model of the G-3

This paper presents a model of the G3 countries with a theoretically consistent model of the supply side, including a single regional model of the Euro area based on consistent aggregation. This is estimated using recent developments in econometrics for handling non-stationary data. It also uses alternative approaches to expectations formation, with an emphasis on bounded rationality. This retains the assumption of informed agents without making the extreme informational requirements of the REH. Our simulations show that under learning, the response of the economy to shocks may be extremely long lasting.     

The macroeconomics of India's 6th five year plan

A macrodynamic model is constructed to analyse the potential stabilization problems related to the implementation of the 6th Five Year Plan in India. The model is in the applied general equilibrium tradition emphasizing the role of structural factors in the macroeconomy. The macroeconomics of the plan are discussed in relation to the development of the overall savings investment balance. The performance of the private savings and the agricultural production capacity is shown to be crucial to achieve the planned growth with stable inflation and income distribution.     

The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom

The paper describes the Liverpool Model, a rational expectations model of the UK economy used for forecasting since March 1980. The model is of the ‘new classical’ type, in that all markets clear; in the labour market, there is a union sector with one-year nominal wage contracts but the non-union sector clears excess demands. Equilibrium (or ‘natural rate’) values of output, employment, real wages, etc are endogenously determined. In- and out-of-sample errors, a full set of simulations, and a complete listing are included. The interim experience of the model as a test bed for rational expectations methods is ‘far from discouraging’.     

The earnings of male immigrants in England: evidence from the quarterly LFS

"In this paper we estimate earnings functions for native born and foreign born white and non-white males in the English labour market, using data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey.... Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between native born and foreign born males when investigating the labour market experience of ethnic minorities. Furthermore, the earnings performance amongst white immigrants varies considerably."     

The political economy of housing in England

Problems of housing affordability have been afflicting parts of the UK, especially the South East of England, for a number of years. The problem is closely related to shortages in housing supply, which are, in turn, largely associated with constraints imposed by the English land planning system. A leading theory for explaining these constraints posits that they reflect political economy forces that convey the interests of current homeowners to planning decisions in disproportionate and excessively influential ways. We test this theory by examining survey data on public attitudes to house building in local communities; and by investigating whether these attitudes are related to local planning decisions. We find that there is a tendency for owner-occupiers to express greater opposition to local house building and that, in the decade to 2011, the housing stock grew significantly less in local authorities with higher proportions of owner-occupiers among local households. The results suggest the risk that planning decisions might have been distorted in favour of current homeowners is real and economically significant. We discuss a range of historical, socio-economic and policy trends that help explain why successive governments of various stripes have been reluctant to address head-on problems in housing supply and put a curb on house prices.     

Repositioning the Chinese economy on the global economic stage

A tectonic shift in the global economic prowess became obvious around the turn of the last century. Three decades of macroeconomic reforms, sustained growth and global integration have turned China into a future economic power of global magnitude, with unmatched breadth of resources and a robust manufacturing sector. Significance of the Chinese economy has radically increased and it has traversed from the periphery of the global economy to the core. For all appearances, this progress is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. China has grown to be the fourth largest economy in the world in a short time span and the third largest trader. Events like dawning of an economic superpower occur once in several generations. China is endeavoring to make a new niche for itself in the global economy as well as formulate a new role.

The political economy of UK foreign aid

In the first part of this paper we provide an overview and comparative assessment of the UK's foreign aid performance over the past 15 years. In the second part, we provide an empirical investigation of the allocation of the UK bilateral aid budget over the period 1970–81. It is concluded that UK political interests were the major determinant of aid allocation during this period with the needs of the less developed countries playing a relatively minor role.     

An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model

Measures of potential output and the output gap are increasingly being developed and used to concisely quantify and monitor the risk of price accelerations stemming from rises in aggregate demand that are not met by a corresponding increase in supply. They often play a prominent role in the price determination mechanisms of macroeconometric models. In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model — and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model. More specifically, we exploit the fact that the investment function can be thought of as a relationship transforming desired gross additions to capacity output into capital accumulation by means of a conversion factor (the optimal capital/output ratio). Thus, if one removes the component of investment decisions that stems from changes in the relative price of the production factors, (i.e. in the optimal capital/output ratio), then a measure of the desired gross addition to capacity may be constructed. The results draw a cyclical picture of the degree of capacity utilisation for the period 1970–1997 that is roughly in line with those produced by the Wharton and Hodrick–Prescott filter approaches, as well as with the pictures resulting from the ISAE, IMF, European Commission and OECD measures of the output gap. Our investment-function-based measure appears to be a promising indicator of the pressure exerted on prices by demand accelerations. Its empirical properties are, on the whole, acceptable and plausible.