Consumption and Hedging in Oil‐Importing Developing Countries

We study the consumption and hedging strategy of an oil‐importing developing country that faces multiple crude oil shocks. In our model, developing countries have two particular characteristics: their economies are mainly driven by natural resources and their technologies are less efficient in energy usage. The natural resource exports can be correlated with the crude oil shocks. The country can hedge against the crude oil uncertainty by taking long/short positions in existing crude oil futures contracts. We find that both inefficiencies in energy usage and shocks to the crude oil price lower the productivity of capital. This generates a negative income effect and a positive substitution effect, because today’s consumption is relatively cheaper than tomorrow’s consumption. Optimal consumption of the country depends on the magnitudes of these effects and on its risk‐aversion degree. Shocks to other crude oil factors, such as the convenience yield, are also studied. We find that the persistence of the shocks magnifies the income and substitution effects on consumption, thus also affecting the hedging strategy of the country. The demand for futures contracts is decomposed in a myopic demand, a pure hedging term and productive hedging demands. These hedging demands arise to hedge against changes in the productivity of capital due to changes in crude oil spot prices. We calibrate the model for Chile and study to what extent the country’s copper exports can be used to hedge the crude oil risk.     

Financial structure,informality and development

The impact of capital market imperfections and costs of creating and operating formal sector firms on total factor productivity is studied. We propose a firm dynamics model with endogenous formal and informal sectors where firms face a technology adoption opportunity. The model predicts that countries with a low degree of debt enforcement and high costs of formality are characterized by low allocative efficiency and large output shares produced by low productivity, informal sector firms. For frictions parametrized using the Doing Business database, the model generates a drop in total factor productivity of up to 25% relative to the US.     

Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis

A decomposition of aggregate labor productivity based on internationally comparable data reveals that a high share of employment and low labor productivity in agriculture are mainly responsible for low aggregate productivity in poor countries. Using a two-sector general-equilibrium model, we show that differences in economy-wide productivity, barriers to modern intermediate inputs in agriculture, and barriers in the labor market generate large cross-country differences in the share of employment and labor productivity in agriculture. The model implies a factor difference of 10.8 in aggregate labor productivity between the richest and the poorest 5% of the countries in the world, leaving the unexplained factor at 3.2. Overall, this two-sector framework performs much better than a single-sector growth model in explaining observed differences in international productivity.     

What have we learned from a decade of empirical research on growth? It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models

The article documents five stylized facts of economic growth.(1) The "residual" (total factor productivity, TFP) rather thanfactor accumulation accounts for most of the income and growthdifferences across countries. (2) Income diverges over the longrun. (3) Factor accumulation is persistent while growth is not,and the growth path of countries exhibits remarkable variation.(4) Economic activity is highly concentrated, with all factorsof production flowing to the richest areas. (5) National policiesare closely associated with long-run economic growth rates.These facts do not support models with diminishing returns,constant returns to scale, some fixed factor of production,or an emphasis on factor accumulation. However, empirical workdoes not yet decisively distinguish among the different theoreticalconceptions of TFP growth. Economists should devote more efforttoward modeling and quantifying TFP.     

Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth in High‐Income OECD Countries

Among the majority of high–income OECD countries, the degree of fiscal decentralisation has converged over the last 30 years towards an intermediate level. The theoretical arguments for and against fiscal decentralisation point to explanations for this tendency, because both extreme decentralisation and extreme centralisation are associated with disadvantages for economic growth. Hence, the observed trend of convergence would be growth–promoting. The paper analyses the long–run empirical relationship between per capita economic growth, capital formation and total factor productivity growth, and fiscal decentralisation for the high–income OECD countries. The evidence supports the view that the relationship is positive when fiscal decentralisation is increasing from low levels, but then reaches a peak and turns negative. A policy implication is that policy–makers in several countries with relatively low degrees of fiscal decentralisation could possibly mobilise growth reserves by increasing it.     

How Endowments, Accumulations, and Choice Determine the Geography of Agricultural Productivity in Ecuador

Spatial disparity in incomes and productivity is apparent acrossand within countries. Most studies of the determinants of suchdifferences focus on cross-country comparisons or location choiceamong firms. Less studied are the large differences in agriculturalproductivity within countries related to concentrations of ruralpoverty. For policy, understanding the determinants of thisgeography of agricultural productivity is important, becausestrategies to reduce poverty often feature components designedto boost regional agricultural incomes. Census and endowmentdata for Ecuador are used to estimate a model of endogenoustechnology choice to explain large regional differences in agriculturaloutput and factor productivity. A composite-error estimationtechnique is used to separate systemic determinants from idiosyncraticdifferences. Simulations are employed to explore policy avenues.The findings suggest a differentiation between the types ofpolicies that promote growth in agriculture generally and thosethat are more likely to assist the rural poor.     

Exploring the nexus between banking sector reform and performance: Evidence from newly acceded EU countries

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between banking sector reform and bank performance – measured in terms of efficiency, total factor productivity growth and net interest margin – accounting for the effects through competition and bank risk-taking. To this end, we develop an empirical model of bank performance, which is consistently estimated using recent econometric techniques. The model is applied to bank panel data from ten newly acceded EU countries. The results indicate that both banking sector reform and competition exert a positive impact on bank efficiency, while the effect of reform on total factor productivity growth is significant only toward the end of the reform process. Finally, the effect of capital and credit risk on bank performance is in most cases negative, while it seems that higher liquid assets reduce the efficiency and productivity of banks.     

国家审计能够促进城市全要素生产率提升吗？——基于空间杜宾模型分析

以全要素生产率度量城市发展水平,考察国家审计对城市高质量发展的影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现,国家审计功能作用发挥提高了城市全要素生产率,同时,国家审计对城市全要素生产率的影响具有负向的空间溢出效应。进一步分析表明,国家审计可通过提高技术效率、规模效率以及技术创新水平,进而促进本城市全要素生产率提升;国家审计对城市全要素生产率的影响,因地方金融发展水平不同而存在显著差异;此外,国家审计对城市全要素生产率的影响还存在动态效应。     

The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries

We examine the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in middle-income countries (MICs) based on cross-country panel data for the period of 1975–2014. We find that TFP growth contributed significantly to a country’s upward transition from middle-income to high-income country group. The TFP growth model reveals that the catch-up effect, human capital, smaller population, weak currency, and research and development growth are significant sources of TFP growth. We do not find a systematic difference in the TFP growth models for MICs. In analyzing the role of factors influencing TFP growth at different income stages, strengthening innovative activities and building innovative capacities are important in overcoming the challenges that MICs face when transitioning to the high-income group. Governments of upper MICs need to initiate reform to motivate innovation by optimizing national R&D systems, and redesigning the educational system to target promoting innovation.     

The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications

Using novel estimates of sectoral total factor productivities for 72 countries across 5 decades we provide evidence of relative productivity convergence: productivity grew systematically faster in initially relatively less productive sectors. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. Had productivity in each country׳s manufacturing sector relative to the US remained the same as in the 1960s, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar, and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. Relative sectoral productivity convergence – holding average growth fixed – had a modest negative welfare impact.     

Innovation,diffusion, and trade: Theory and measurement

What are the sources of economic growth? This paper presents a multicountry growth model of innovation and the adoption of foreign technologies through trade. The costs of both domestic innovation and adopting foreign innovations are estimated using data on innovation, output and trade. A decomposition of the sources of growth shows that technology adoption accounts for about 65% of “embodied” growth in developing countries. Developed countries grow mainly through domestic innovation, which explains 75% of their “embodied” growth. Counterfactuals show how growth rates and levels of income would change if countries faced the same barriers to adoption and research productivity.     

知识产权保护对我国全要素生产率的影响研究

通过构建包含执法力度的知识产权保护区际度量指标,将全要素生产率分解为技术进步与技术效率,运用2000～2010年我国的时间序列及省际面板数据,考察了知识产权保护对全要素生产率及其不同方面的影响效应。实证结果表明:知识产权保护对于全要素生产率尤其是技术效率部分,具有一定程度的促进作用;人力资本、贸易开放、FDI是推动我国全要素生产率提升的重要要素。     

Tariff evasion in sub-Saharan Africa: the influence of corruption in importing and exporting countries

Multilateral organizations recommend sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to increase international trade in order to attain sustainable economic growth. The benefits of trade can be hampered, however, by tariff evasion. Using trade data from 2008–2014 of 31 SSA countries, we examine how the association between tariff rates and value and quantity gaps (which are indicative of tariff evasion) is enhanced by corruption in both importing and exporting countries (SSA countries are referred to as importing countries, and their trade partners from outside SSA are referred to as exporting countries). Results of a series of tests show that corruption levels in both sides of the trade partnership reinforce the (positive) association between tariff rates and value and quantity gaps. This indicates that counteracting tariff evasion in SSA is a co-responsibility between trade partners.     

Foreign banks and trade

Exploiting unique, time-varying, bilateral data on bank ownership for many countries, we show that exports tend to be larger when a foreign bank from the importing country is present. Entry of a foreign bank also boosts export growth to the home country of the foreign bank relative to other countries, especially when foreign bank presence in the country is large and bilateral cross-border lending low. We find supportive evidence that foreign banks facilitate trade by reducing financial frictions for firms. Entry spurs exports to the foreign bank's home country especially in sectors more dependent on external finance, and particularly so in countries less economically and financially developed and with a higher share of foreign banks. Imports of external finance dependent sectors also grow more after entry, but less so than exports do. Exit of a foreign bank does not fully eliminate the beneficial effects of prior foreign bank presence on exports.     

The sources of bank productivity growth in China during 2002–2009: A disaggregation view

This study investigates the sources of bank productivity growth in China over the period 2002–2009. In order to perform this research, we propose an advanced index – input slack-based productivity index (ISP) – a model that disaggregates total factor productivity growth into each input productivity change. Funds, capital, and employees are chosen as the inputs, whereas loans and other earning assets are outputs in this study. Our results show that technological gains transcend the efficiency regressions and result in total factor productivity growth. More specifically, technical progress in capital productivity reveals the dominant force behind the total factor technical change and productivity improvement. In addition, this paper uses these disaggregation terms to find out the competitive advantages and disadvantages of input usages for each Chinese bank. These findings indicate that the ISP index provides more insights than traditional total factor productivity indices.     

International tax competition: do public good spillovers matter?

We study the impact of public good spillovers on tax competition between two imperfectly integrated countries with different levels of productivity. We show that international public good spillovers, by reducing the tax gap between countries, strengthen the agglomeration of firms in the most productive country. Then we carry on a welfare analysis. We first assume that governments are engaged in a redistributive tax policy. At the non-cooperative equilibrium, the tax level in the high-productivity country is inefficiently high while it is inefficiently low in the other country. A different conclusion emerges when tax revenues are recycled in a public good provision: taxes are inefficiently low in both countries and public good spillovers increase the global welfare. Finally, for a given amount of total tax revenues, public good provision in the high-productivity country is inefficiently high compared to its level in the low-productivity country.     

互联网应用对中国制造业全要素生产率的影响研究

基于中国A股上市公司数据,实证检验制造业企业互联网应用对全要素生产率的影响及作用机制。结果显示：互联网应用通过节约交易成本这一主要渠道显著地提升了制造业企业全要素生产率;互联网应用对西部地区制造业企业、资本密集制造业企业、出口型制造业企业全要素生产率的提升效果更显著;互联网应用通过节约销售成本和管理成本提升了制造业企业全要素生产率,且管理成本节约对全要素生产率提升的作用更大。因此,应提升制造业企业互联网应用的深度与广度,将节约的销售成本与管理成本投入研发活动之中,推动制造业全要素生产率提升。     

An Argument for Deregulating the Transfer of Agricultural Technologies to Developing Countries

In the past few decades many developing countries have liberalizedtrade and investment, removing barriers to imports and allowingthe introduction of new foreign technologies. Unfortunately,agriculture often remains outside this reform process. Regulatoryobstacles continue to restrain the transfer of technologiesthrough private trade in seeds and other inputs. Industrialcountries characteristically allow the transfer of private andpublic technologies through multiple channels. Developing countriesoften force technology transfer through a single channel controlledby government agencies, with an emphasis on official performancetests. This article analyzes the institutional arrangementsgoverning the international transfer of new agricultural technologies,examining the cases of agricultural machinery in Bangladeshand seed varieties in Turkey. The analysis shows that allowingthe private transfer of technologies and refocusing input regulationson externalities could lead to significant productivity andincome gains in developing countries.     

小额信贷机构的全要素生产率——基于30家小额信贷机构的实证分析

本研究运用30家小额信贷机构2005～2009年的投入产出数据和基于数据包络分析(DEA)的Malmquist生产率指数法,对小额信贷机构的全要素生产率进行测算和分解.实证结果表明:在时间序列上,30家小额信贷机构整体全要素生产力呈下降趋势.引起生产力下降的原因是规模效率低和技术进步缓慢,规模和技术进步成为小额信贷机构...