Measures of industry productivity change: the case of thermal electricity generation in Chinese provinces 2000–2014

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The typical textbook production theory for a single production unit, assuming substitution possibilities both ex ante and ex post between all factors of...     

Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa

We investigate the role that climatic change has played in the pattern of urbanization in sub-Saharan African countries compared to the rest of the developing world. To this end we assemble a cross-country panel data set that allows us to estimate the determinants of urbanization. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that climatic change, as proxied by rainfall, has acted to change urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa but not elsewhere in the developing world. Moreover, this link has become stronger since decolonization, which is likely due to the often simultaneous lifting of legislation prohibiting the free internal movement of native Africans.     

Mobility and the dynamics of poverty in Iran: Evidence from the 1992–1995 panel survey

In the last three decades, revolutionary Iran has experienced large shocks to its political and economic system with likely effects on poverty, inequality, and economic mobility. While poverty has declined, inequality has remained relatively high and stable over nearly four decades. In this paper, for the first time, we examine poverty and inequality in a dynamic context using a 4-year panel data, collected during 1992–1995. We show that short-term income mobility is relatively high, which helps mitigate persistent high inequality. We offer a range of estimates of transition probabilities, indicating that, for example, someone in the lowest (highest) quintile has between 25% and 50% chance of moving up (down) the income ladder. Focusing on the dynamics of poverty, we distinguish between short- and long-term poor and between chronic and transient poverty. Surprisingly, we find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem in urban than rural areas, while transient poverty is geographically more uniformly distributed. Finally, using Tobit and quantile regression, we examine the correlates of these two types of poverty. Both chronic and transient poverty are higher for households headed by women and by younger and less educated men. While minorities suffer more from transient poverty, they are less likely to be chronically poor. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy to alleviate chronic and transient poverty.     

The Productivity of Government Spending in Asia: 1983–2000

Leightner [The Changing Effectiveness of Key Policy Tools in Thailand. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies for East Asian Development Network, EAON Working Paper 19(2002)x0219-6417] develops a new analytical technique, named Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (RTPLS), which produces 1/2 the error of OLS when omitted variables interact with the included independent variable. In this paper, RTPLS is applied to annual panel data on government spending and GDP from 1983 to 2000 for 23 developing Asian and Pacific countries. RTPLS produces estimates for the government spending multiplier for these countries and shows how omitted variables have affected these multipliers across countries and over time.JEL Classification: C13, E62, O23     

The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect

Beveridge and Nelson [Beveridge, Stephen, Nelson, Charles R., 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’. Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 151–174] proposed that the long-run forecast is a measure of trend for time series such as GDP that do not follow a deterministic path in the long run. They showed that if the series is stationary in first differences, then the estimated trend is a random walk with drift that accounts for growth, and the cycle is stationary. In contrast to linear de-trending, the smoother of Hodrick and Prescott (1981) and Hodrick and Prescott [Hodrick, Robert, Prescott, Edward C., 1997. Post-war US business cycles: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money Credit and Banking 29 (1), 1–16] and the unobserved components model of Harvey, [Harvey, A.C., 1985. Trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 3, 216–227]. Watson [Watson, Mark W., 1986. Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends Journal of Monetary Economics 18, 49–75] and Clark [Clark, Peter K., 1987. The cyclical component of US economic activity. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 102 (4), 797–814], the BN decomposition attributes most variation in GDP to trend shocks while the cycles are short and brief. Since each is an estimate of the transitory part of GDP that will die out, it seems natural to compare cycle measures by their ability to forecast future growth. The results presented here suggest that cycle measures contain little if any information beyond the short-term momentum captured by BN.     

The actorness of the President of the Republic in Italian foreign policy: a quantitative narrative analysis of two case studies (1999–2013)

In this paper, we address the topic of policy actorness in Italian foreign policy to characterize the understudied role of the President of the Italian Republic (PoR). We apply quantitative narrative analysis (QNA) as the methodological tool of our study, answering two research questions to which the academic literature has so far produced limited responses: (a) whether the PoR can be considered a relevant actor in Italian foreign policy and (b) which factors can affect the Italian PoR’s relevance in foreign policy. Considering the Italian PoR’s Diary as the unit of analysis and source of data, we study the two crucial cases of Ciampi’s presidency (1999–2006) and Napolitano’s first presidency (2006–2013). QNA allows us to quantify and compare, while maintaining an actor-centred approach, the relations of the two PoRs with the most relevant actors in foreign policy. The results of our analyses highlight the relevance of the Italian PoR figure, identifying the main areas of influence of the Italian head of state and their changes over time. We conclude providing a few hypotheses to interpret the outcomes of our analyses on the PoR’s role in Italian foreign policy.

     

Income mobility in Russia (2000–2005)

Using the data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), this paper investigates income mobility in Russia during the period of rapid economic growth (2000–2005). Employing a broad set of mobility indices, we show that there is much mobility in household incomes from one year to the next and over longer periods in Russia. Both relative and absolute mobility in Russia are significantly higher than in Western countries. We demonstrate that income growth in Russia was strongly pro-poor in 2000–2005. Incomes of the relatively poor were growing faster than incomes of the relatively rich. However, this inequality-reducing effect was almost exactly offset by changes in the relative positions of individuals and the overall reduction in cross-sectional inequality was merely modest.     

The challenge of constructing regional advantages in peripheral areas: The case of marine biotechnology in Tromsø, Norway

The idea of constructing regional advantage (CRA) has recently been emphasized by scholars as a new way for firms to gain competitiveness in a globalizing learning economy. The rationale behind the idea is that advantages in a regional industry can be constructed by proactive public–private partnership. This article uses, and examines the relevance of, the CRA framework in analysing the development and functioning of the marine biotechnology industry in Tromsø, which is a fairly peripheral region in Norway. Despite the fact that much effort has been put into education and R&D at the University of Tromsø and related research institutes, and the fact that many public policy tools have intended to create a blooming marine biotechnology industry in the area, the results have so far been meagre. This article explains the rather weak results in terms of the number of firms and jobs in the marine biotechnology industry in Tromsø as being due to a lack of synthetic knowledge on how to industrialize research results and little spillover of market knowledge. With regard to more general theoretical lessons linked to the CRA framework, this article argues for seeing the concept of related variety in a broader industrial and geographical sense in peripheral regions.     

Productivity change in the privatized water sector in China (1999–2006)

Journal of Productivity Analysis - We estimate the effects of the Chinese water sector’s privatization reforms based on firm-level panel data from 1999 to 2006. By applying a translog...     

Capital flows and the boom–bust cycle: The case of Estonia

During 2000–2007, Estonia was among the fastest growing emerging market economies, but in late-2008 entered a deep recession. This paper examines shocks, institutions, and policies that have made Estonia's boom–bust cycle so severe. It finds that an open capital account, the prospect for EU entry, and the currency board facilitated massive capital inflows, which led to credit and real estate booms. In late-2008 a domestic slowdown was greatly amplified by the global financial and economic crisis. To resume sustainable growth, the country will need to regain competitiveness and rebalance resources to exports. Estonia's experience underscores the importance for other emerging market economies to retain some flexibility in their macroeconomic frameworks and approach capital account liberalization cautiously.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

The dynamics of entrepreneurs’ networks in a transitioning economy: the case of Russia

Despite its theoretical and practical importance, the evolution and development of entrepreneurs’ networks has attracted a little attention of researchers. The emerging research literature on this topic found that the dynamics of entrepreneurial networks were contingent upon venture lifecycle, industry and region, and resource needs of the firm. In addition and contrast to the previous research, this article examines the effects of the initial network structure, and firm performance of previous years on the changes in entrepreneurs' network structure, relations, and resources over 4 years. The empirical data is composed of the face-to-face interviews with 75 Russian entrepreneurs in 1995, and the follow-up interviews with 56 original respondents in 1999. I found that the greater the initial network size, the less the increase in network size, strong and weak ties, and resources over time. Further, the findings indicate that revenue growth of previous years predicts the changes in networks in the reverse manner. Thus, I found that the greater the average revenue growth, the less the increase in network size, weak ties, and resources over time.     

The moderating effect of relationship conflict on the creative climate–innovation association: the case of traditional sectors in Spain

A good creative climate is considered one of the main capacities inherent in groups that establish innovation processes. Creative climate emerges from different forces interacting in a way that can be stimulated or inhibited. We identify six dimensions of creative climate. By analysing them jointly, we find that some are more relevant than others for the purposes of innovation. To test the model, we designed an empirical study based on a group of medium-sized firms in traditional sectors in Spain involved in non-high technology innovation. The results show that trust and support are the dimensions that favour innovation and that the dimension of relationship conflict has neither a positive nor a negative effect on innovation. Nevertheless, relationship conflict has a significant positive effect on the autonomy–innovation association and a significant negative effect on the commitment–innovation association. We find synergistic effects between apparently contradictory forces with implications for change and thus for organizational flexibility.     

The role of the public sector in the provision of housing supply in Turkey, 1950–2009

This study examines the changing role of the public sector in Turkey with regard to housing provision since 1950, and particularly since 2000, and seeks to clarify how public intervention has affected housing provision and urban development dynamics in major cities. Three periods may be identified, with central government acting as a regulator in a first period characterized by a ‘housing boom’. During the second period, from 1980 to 2000, a new mass housing law spurred construction activity, although the main beneficiaries of the housing fund tended to be the middle classes. After 2000, contrary to emerging trends in both Northern and Southern European countries, the public sector in Turkey became actively involved in housing provision. During this process, new housing estates were created on greenfield sites on the outskirts of cities, instead of efforts being made to rehabilitate, restore or renew existing housing stock in the cities. Meanwhile, the concept of ‘urban regeneration’ has been opportunistically incorporated into the planning agenda of the public sector, and — under the pretext of regenerating squatter housing areas — existing residents have been moved out, while channels for community participation have been bypassed.     

The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007

A vector autoregression with time-varying parameters is used to characterize changes in Federal Reserve policy that occurred from 2000 through 2007 and describe how they affected the performance of the U.S. economy. Declining coefficients in the model׳s estimated policy rule point to a shift in the Fed׳s emphasis away from stabilizing inflation over this period. More importantly, however, the Fed held the federal funds rate persistently below the values prescribed by this rule. Under this more discretionary policy, inflation overshot its target and the funds rate followed a path reminiscent of the “stop-go” pattern that characterized Fed behavior prior to 1979.     

Public–Private Partnership’s Procurement Criteria: The case of managing stakeholders’ value creation in Kazakhstan

Abstract

The article presents the study of the criteria that Kazakhstan’s government used for granting a public–private partnership (PPP) contract to a private investor for construction and operation of eleven kindergartens in the city of Karaganda during 14 years. From the perspective of value creation for critical stakeholders, there was often misalignment between bidders’ views of these criteria and the perceived value for citizens and the government. The latter may significantly enhance the creation of shared values in a PPP by actively engaging stakeholders in the design of the bids’ assessment criteria.     

Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model

Aggregating predictions from multiple judges often yields more accurate predictions than relying on a single judge, which is known as the wisdom-of-the-crowd effect. However, a wide range of aggregation methods are available, which range from one-size-fits-all techniques, such as simple averaging, prediction markets, and Bayesian aggregators, to customized (supervised) techniques that require past performance data, such as weighted averaging. In this study, we applied a wide range of aggregation methods to subjective probability estimates from geopolitical forecasting tournaments. We used the bias–information–noise (BIN) model to disentangle three mechanisms that allow aggregators to improve the accuracy of predictions: reducing bias and noise, and extracting valid information across forecasters. Simple averaging operates almost entirely by reducing noise, whereas more complex techniques such as prediction markets and Bayesian aggregators exploit all three pathways to allow better signal extraction as well as greater noise and bias reduction. Finally, we explored the utility of a BIN approach for the modular construction of aggregators.