A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices

The paper studies the dynamics of housing prices in a pure exchange overlapping generations framework a la Samuelson (1958) and Gale (1973), which is extended to include housing as a utility-yielding durable good and a credit sector. We completely characterize the equilibrium dynamics, which alternates between an expansive regime where leveraged borrowing increases housing prices, and a contractive regime where these variables decrease. Regime switches occur due to small but persistent income changes giving rise to boom-bust cycles in housing prices. Price deviations from fundamentals are caused by leveraged borrowing, and turn out to be fully welfare-neutral.     

Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts

Can monetary policy trigger pronounced boom-bust cycles in house prices and create persistent business cycles? We address this question by building heuristics into an otherwise standard DSGE model. As a result, monetary policy sets off waves of optimism and pessimism (“animal spirits”) that drive house prices, that, in turn, have strong repercussions on the business cycle. We compare our findings to a standard model with rational expectations by means of impulse responses. We suggest that a standard Taylor rule is not well-suited to maintain macroeconomic stability. Instead, an augmented rule that incorporates house prices is shown to be superior.     

Time on market and sales price of residential housing: A note

This note extends the study of Kalra and Chan (1994). A simultaneous TOBIT equations model is established to address the simultaneity nature of time on the market (TOM) and sales price (SP) in the presence of censored sample bias. We find that both TOM and SP are positively related to each other.     

Booms,busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices

We estimate a behavioural heterogeneous agents model with boundedly rational traders who know the fundamental stock price, but disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental. Some agents (fundamentalists) believe in mean-reversion of stock prices, while others (chartists) expect a continuation of the trend. Agents gradually switch between the two rules, based upon their relative performance, leading to self-reinforcing regimes of mean-reversion and trend-following. For the fundamental benchmark price we use two well-known models, the Gordon model with a constant risk premium and the Campbell-Cochrane consumption-habit model with a time-varying risk premium. We estimate a two-type switching model using U.S. stock prices until 2016Q4. The estimations show an improvement over representative agent models that is both statistically and economically significant. Our model suggests that behavioural regime switching strongly amplifies booms and busts, in particular, the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis in 2008.     

Hedonic prices, price indices and housing markets

This paper extends hedonic price analysis to the formation of housing price indices measuring variation within a metropolitan area. In forming these indices fifteen submarkets, heterogeneous across time and space, are described within a short-run equilibrium model. Linear functional forms are generally rejected using a method proposed by Box and Cox. Aggregation of hedonic price coefficients into standardized units yields significantly higher housing prices in the central city than in its suburbs, as well as differential effects of structural and neighborhood improvements among submarkets.     

A prediction comparison of housing sales prices by parametric versus semi-parametric regressions

This study estimates a hedonic price function using a semi-parametric regression and compares the price prediction performance with conventional parametric models. This study utilizes a large data set representing 2595 single-family residential home sales between July 2000 and June 2002 from Pitt County, North Carolina. Data from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are incorporated to account for locational attributes of the houses. The results show that the semi-parametric regression outperforms the parametric counterparts in both in-sample and out-of-sample price predictions, indicating that the semi-parametric model can be useful for measurement and prediction of housing sales prices.     

Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks

This article studies the co-movement and dynamics between price movements and transactions in the housing market using data for the period 1988–2008 from Finland. While the previous related literature examines the reactions of sales and prices to an interest rate shock only, this study investigates the responses to income and debt shocks as well. The empirical estimations show that the response of prices to demand shocks is substantially slower than that of sales. The estimated reactions of sales substantially differ from those reported in the earlier literature. The reaction patterns can create the kind of strong positive co-movement between price movements and sales volume and the kind of negative correlation between price level and sales that have been found in several housing markets.     

The response of prices,sales, and output to temporary changes in demand

We determine empirically how automakers accommodate shocks to demand. Using data on production, sales, and transaction prices, we estimate a dynamic profit maximization model of the firm. We demonstrate that when an automaker is hit with a vehicle‐specific demand shock, sales respond immediately and prices respond very modestly. Further, when accounting for non‐convexities in the cost function, production responds with a delay. Over time, shocks are absorbed almost entirely through adjustments in sales and production rather than prices. We examine two recent demand shocks: the Ford Explorer/Firestone tire recall of 2000, and the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of the appraisal process for auction and private treaty residential sales

This paper examines residential sale mechanisms from an appraisal perspective and empirically tests for differences in the valuation process for auctioned and private treaty sales. We test the hypothesis that agents use different criteria in preparing the guide prices for auctioned housing, with an element of under pricing in order to aid in the marketing of the property. The empirical tests are undertaken on a sample of auctioned and private treaty sales in Dublin, Ireland for the period of 1997–2004. We find that the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that agents do adjust valuations for auctions to attract additional potential bidders.     

破解土地价格“剪刀差“难题——以重点城市的居住地价和工业地价为例

“剪刀差”概念源于20世纪20年代前苏联的超额税，是对不合理的工农业产品价格的概括，其实质是工农业产品的不等价交换。随着我国城市化和工业化的不断推进，地价“剪刀差”这一现象开始在我国土地市场领域中出现，而且这种差异呈现不断拉大的趋势。然而，学者们较多关注的是政府廉价征地和高价出让土地之间的地价“剪刀差”现象，对不同用途土地价格的‘剪刀差”现象研究得很少。因此，对近几年我国重点城市的居住地价和工业地价的“剪刀差”现象进行一些研究，分析不同用途土地价格‘剪刀差”存在的原因并提出解决方法，很有必要。     

Hedonic price and depreciation indexes for residential housing: A comment

A regression technique for developing residential real estate price indexes using repeat sales on properties has not allowed the separation of depreciation from true price changes. In a recent article Chinloy [2] has proposed a method for achieving this separation. This note shows that his theoretical derivation is incorrect. A corrected model is then used to show the stringent assumptions that are necessary to interpret his empirical results as measuring embodied technological change. The true price effects and the depreciation effects still cannot be separated in such a model.     

需求价格弹性和销售收入关系的数学探析

文章认为,许多经济学教材中关于需求价格弹性对销售收入影响的结论存在明显缺陷,通过严格的数学分析,无论如何都不能得出需求价格弹性大于1时,降价会使销售收入增加这样的结论。正确的结论应该是:对同一条需求曲线,对应不同的点有不同的弹性,中点的价格弹性为1,是销售收入最大点,销售收入的变化由销售点在需求曲线上的位置及移动方向共同决定。     

A note on the output effect of price discrimination on a sales maximizer

This note analyses the behaviour of a profit-constrained sales-maximizing firm under price discrimination. It is shown that tightening the price discriminatory constraint will cause a decrease in output regardless of the shape of the relevant demand curves.     

Hedonic price and depreciation indexes for residential housing: A longitudinal approach

An equilibrium price relation is derived for price changes in durable goods capable of generating a hedonic, or quality-corrected, price index, and an index of depreciation. The structure proposed is applicable particularly to housing markets, where longitudinal, or repeat-sale data are readily available from assessment or real estate sources. The separation permits not only the construction of a true price index, but also allows tests of various functional forms for depreciation, notably the geometric function. As an application of the proposed structure, estimates are presented for single-family dwellings in surburban London, Ontario, 1967–1975.     

State and local tax competition in a spatial model with sales taxes and residential property taxes

This paper presents a theoretical model with a uniformly populated line that is divided into local jurisdictions (and/or states). If one level of government imposes sales and residential property taxes, and if the spatial extent of each taxing jurisdiction is positive and finite, then (in Nash equilibrium) the sales tax rate is less than residential property tax rate, housing consumption is suboptimal, and the public good is underprovided in each jurisdiction. If a very large state (or country) is divided into local jurisdictions, and if both levels of government choose tax rates endogenously, then under some assumptions there is an efficient outcome.     

The effects of fuel prices and vehicle sales on fuel‐saving technology adoption in passenger vehicles

Although economic theory suggests that both sales and fuel costs affect technology adoption by vehicle manufacturers, there is very little empirical evidence on either effect. We document a strong connection between a vehicle's sales and its energy efficiency. Using a demographics‐driven demand shifter to isolate demand‐side changes in sales, we find that a one standard deviation increase in sales raises efficiency by 0.2%, compared with a mean improvement rate of 1.4% per year between 1997 and 2013. Higher fuel prices also increase technology adoption directly by increasing willingness to pay for fuel cost savings. The results have two implications: manufacturers will continue to focus technological improvements on top selling vehicles; and fuel taxes will have larger effects on technology adoption than fuel economy standards and feebates.     

The frequency of price adjustment: A study of the newsstand prices of magazines

Data on the newsstand prices of American magazines is used to investigate the determinants of the frequency of nominal price change. Magazine price changes, often coming after real prices have fallen by one quarter, provide strong evidence for monopolistic sticky price models. The data is examined by applying a fixed effects logit specification to the price change rule implied by a target-threshold model of a firm facing general price inflation, an uncertain future and costly nominal adjustment. The essay concludes that higher inflation leads to more frequent price adjustment and that the real cost of price changes varies with the size of a real price change.     

Axiomatic properties of geo-logarithmic price indices

In the axiomatic approach to composite index numbers, a list of properties is given that both price and quantity indices should satisfy in order to ensure consistent comparisons. Usually, the price index is selected first and its cofactor is consequently adopted as the (implicit) quantity index. Unfortunately, even if the price index has good axiomatic properties, its cofactor need not, so the implicit quantity comparison may be axiomatically inconsistent. In this paper, we give a comprehensive study of a family of price indices sharing good axiomatic properties (proportionality, commensurability, and homogeneity) together with their cofactors. This family, called geo-logarithmic, is relevant also because of the empirical circumstance that all known price indices sharing such properties with their cofactors belong to it or can be obtained from geo-logarithmic index numbers through simple transformations. Thus, the geo-logarithmic family seems to play a central role when the joint consistency of price and quantity comparisons is concerned.