Pricing inefficiencies and feedback trading: Evidence from country ETFs

In view of the established presence of wide deviations of US-listed country ETFs' prices from their net asset values, we study whether feedback trading exists in this category of ETFs and whether it varies with their premiums and discounts. Using a sample of nineteen country ETFs for the 2000–2019 window, we find that feedback trading is present in several of them, particularly those targeting Asia Pacific markets. Feedback trading varies with the sign (i.e., premiums and discounts), level, and nature (observed/forecast) of these deviations, as well as prior to and after the outbreak of the 2008 crisis. Of particular note is the widespread feedback trading reported across the vast majority of country ETFs on those days for which there exist successful predictions of premiums/discounts, a fact suggesting that country ETFs' premiums/discounts contain useful information as per their trading dynamics.     

Government intervention and investment efficiency: Evidence from China

The extant corporate investment literature has documented that information asymmetry and agency conflicts between managers and outside investors prevent firms from making optimal investment decisions. In this study, we investigate whether government intervention, as another form of friction, distorts firms' investment behavior and leads to investment inefficiency. Using Chinese data, we test this by measuring government intervention at two different levels. First, we compare investment efficiency between SOEs and non-SOEs. We find that the sensitivity of investment expenditure to investment opportunities is significantly weaker for SOEs. Second, we measure government intervention by whether a firm is politically connected through the employment of top executives with a government background. We find that political connections significantly reduce investment efficiency in SOEs. However, we do not find such evidence in non-SOEs. Taken together, our findings suggest that government intervention in SOEs through majority state ownership or the appointment of connected managers distorts investment behavior and harms investment efficiency.     

Bank ownership,privatization, and performance: Evidence from a transition country

This paper combines the static effect of ownership and the dynamic effect of privatization on bank performance in China over 1995–2010, reporting a significantly higher performance by private intermediaries – joint stock commercial banks and city commercial banks – relative to state-owned commercial banks. However, publicly traded banks, subject to multiple monitoring and vetting in capital markets, perform better regardless of ownership status. The privatization of banks has improved performance with respect to revenue inflow and efficiency gains in the short- or long-run (initial public offerings). The positive long-run effect is more relevant and significant for banking institutions with minority foreign ownership. Moreover, this paper innovatively estimates interest income efficiency and non-interest income efficiency at the same time. The results suggest that Chinese banks are much more efficient in generating interest income than raising non-interest revenue, although the latter aspect has improved significantly during the sample period.     

The impact of mandatory IFRS reporting on institutional trading costs: Evidence from Australia

This study examines the impact of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on the market quality of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) 200 constituent stocks. Using traditional metrics that are consistent with prior literature (i.e., bid‐ask spreads), the first stage analysis confirms that stock liquidity has improved. However, when the analysis is extended to consider the trading costs incurred by market participants (i.e., execution shortfall), results suggest liquidity has not changed significantly. The paper utilizes rich unique datasets that contain detailed trade information, and findings are robust after controlling for trade difficulty and market conditions. In the era of High Frequency Trading (HFT) and occurrences of ‘fleeting’ liquidity, this paper provides some evidence that while IFRS may have enhanced ‘visible’ bid‐ask spreads, tangible liquidity for market participants, particularly global institutional investors, has not improved significantly.     

Government intervention and firm investment: Evidence from international micro-data

Building on the important study by Beck et al. (2005), we examine how government intervention in firms' decision-making is related to their investment and sales growth. Using the unique World Bank dataset (WBES) covering 6500 firms in 70 countries, we find strong evidence that the extent of government intervention in firms' investment, employment, sales, pricing, dividend, and merger and acquisition decisions is negatively related to their investment and sales growth, with the effect being more profound in foreign owned firms and less significant in state-owned firms. The empirical results are robust to a series of robustness tests and instrumental variable regressions.     

Equity trading by institutional investors: Evidence on order submission strategies

The trading volume channeled through off-market crossing networks is growing. Passive matching of orders outside the primary market lowers several components of execution costs compared to regular trading. On the other hand, the risk of non-execution imposes opportunity costs, and the inherent “free riding” on the price discovery process raises concerns that this eventually will lead to lower liquidity in the primary market. Using a detailed data set from a large investor in the US equity markets, we find evidence that competition from crossing networks is concentrated in the most liquid stocks in a sample of the largest companies in the US. Simulations of alternative trading strategies indicate that the investor’s strategy of initially trying to cross all stocks was cost effective: in spite of their high liquidity, the crossed stocks would have been unlikely to achieve at lower execution costs in the open market.     

High-frequency trading and institutional trading costs

Using data on Canadian bond futures, we examine how high-frequency traders (HFTs) interact with institutions building large positions. In contrast to recent findings, we find HFTs in the data act as small-sized liquidity suppliers, and we reject the hypothesis that they engage in back running, a predatory trading strategy. Using a quasi-experiment in November 2011, in which a number of HFTs started trading the bond future, we run a difference-in-differences event study and find more competition among HFTs improves implementation shortfall, effective spreads, and short-term price impacts for institutional trading in Canadian bond futures.     

The market for shareholder voting rights around mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from institutional daily trading and voting

This paper explores the market for voting rights and shareholder voting around 350 mergers and acquisitions between 1999 and 2005 by examining institutional-investor trading and voting outcomes. Our results show institutions in aggregate buy shares and hence voting rights before merger record dates. This trading is not related to proxies for merger arbitrage or trading around merger announcements, and thus is not simply a continuation of the latter. Trading and buying before record dates are positively related to voting turnout and negatively related to shareholder support of merger proposals. We explore several possible interpretations of these results.     

The efficacy of regulatory intervention: Evidence from the distribution of informed option trading

A substantive body of equity-market academic research documents an extensive range of costs arising from the SEC’s October 2000 adoption of strictures on selective disclosure and insider trading; suggesting an unusual outcome, specifically, an increase in informed trading. We investigate the efficacy of the SEC’s regulations by examining informed trading in an attractive setting for exploiting private information; the options market. Using data on the S&P 1500 industrial firms, our analysis indicates that about 38% of firms exhibited symptoms of informed option trading prior to regulatory intervention. After regulatory intervention, we observe that only 19% of firms show symptoms of informed trading. In additional testing of ADR firms – explicitly exempt from complying with Reg FD, we find no evidence of a change in informed option trading from pre- to post-regulation; suggesting that the SEC’s strictures on US firms led a to a significant reduction in informed option trading. Notably, our proxies for large shareholder and financial analyst access are associated with the largest decreases in informed option trading. In developing a unique measure of informed trading based on option market data, we provide evidence on the efficacy of security regulation in limiting informed trading.     

Slow-moving capital and execution costs: Evidence from a major trading glitch

We investigate the impact of an exogenous trading glitch at a high-frequency market-making firm on standard measures of stock liquidity (spreads, price impact, turnover, and depth) and institutional trading costs (implementation shortfall and volume-weighted average price slippage). Stocks in which the firm accumulates large long (short) positions increase (decrease) by about 4% during the glitch and become substantially more illiquid. It takes one day for prices and spread-based liquidity measures to revert. Institutional trading costs, however, remain significantly higher for more than one week. Both liquidity measures are also weakly correlated outside the glitch period, suggesting they capture different aspects of liquidity.     

The trading behavior of foreign,domestic institutional,and domestic individual investors: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market

In this paper, we apply the threshold cointegration model of Hansen and Seo (2002), incorporating differences in the nonlinear behavior of investors across regimes. An examination of the trading behavior of foreign, domestic institutional, and domestic individual investors in Taiwan revealed no predominance among the three types of investors. When the market was near equilibrium, the purchases of domestic individual investors positively impacted stock prices. This finding, which is consistent with Choe et al. (2005), suggests that domestic individual investors have an edge in investment performance over other types of investors. However, when the market departed substantially from equilibrium, the purchases of foreign and domestic institutional investors predicted a rise in stock prices. On the other hand, domestic individuals traded at worse stock prices; these prices tended to fall (rise) after the purchase (sale).     

Trading performance and market efficiency: Evidence from algorithmic trading

In India, National Stock Exchange directly identifies algorithmic trading participation. Algorithmic traders possess intraday market timing skills. Results are not motivated by extreme short-term signals or transitory price trading. Magnitude of market timing performance in cross-sectional group of traders shows that they earn profit across all the cases, and maximize while providing liquidity. Volume-weighted-average-price decomposition analysis reports algorithmic traders earn profits through intraday market timing performance for five-minute and one-minute intervals, and it is higher compared to short-term market timing performance across all trader groups. Order imbalance and price delay regressions show that algorithmic trading significantly improves price efficiency.     

Taxes and dividend clientele: Evidence from trading and ownership structure

Although dividend clientele have been studied over several decades, their existence remains controversial. We study the interaction of dividends and taxes by exploiting a unique dataset from Taiwan, where the capital gains tax is zero. We find strong evidence of a clientele effect. Agents subject to high rates of taxation on dividends tend to hold stocks with lower dividends and sell (buy) stocks that raise (lower) dividends. Agents in lower tax brackets behave in the opposite manner. After legalization of repurchases in 2000, firms with higher concentrations of more heavily taxed shareholders were more apt to begin repurchase programs.     

Venture capital investment and institutional factors: Evidence from China

This paper examines how venture capital (VC) investment and institutional factors affect the performance of VC-backed companies in China. Compared with non-VC-backed companies, we find that VC-backed companies slightly underperform in profitability but have considerably higher market value. Furthermore, VC investment does not help companies mitigate the negative impact of institutional factors on profitability; however, it conveys beneficial effects that help companies moderate the negative impact on market value. We also provide evidence that the impact of VC investment and institutional factors is more pronounced for non-state-owned companies, companies with poor corporate governance, and companies with higher research and development investment.     

Volatility and dark trading: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic

We study the effect(s) of volatility on the share of trading in dark pools by exploiting the exogenous shock of the Covid-19 pandemic on financial markets and regulatory restrictions on dark trading. We find that high levels of volatility in lit exchanges is linked to an economically significant loss of market share by dark pools to lit exchanges. In line with the theory, the loss appears to be driven by informed traders’ migration from lit to dark markets during high volatility periods. The market quality implications of the trading dynamics are mixed: while it tempers liquidity decline in the lit market, it exacerbates the loss of informational efficiency.     

Social networks and managerial rent-seeking: Evidence from executive trading profitability

This study examines whether board social networks are associated with executive trading profitability. Using a sample of US public firms with a history of executive trading from years 2000 to 2015, we find robust evidence that the profitability of executive trading is significantly lower in firms with higher levels of board social networks. The evidence is consistent with our view that board social networks effectively curb executives' private information advantage over outsiders, thus leading to a lower level of managerial rent-seeking. Our research has policy implications for regulators concerned about the role of corporate board in capital markets.     

Informed trading before analyst downgrades: Evidence from short sellers

This paper studies short-selling prior to the release of analyst downgrades in a sample of 670 downgrades of Nasdaq stocks between 2000 and 2001. We find abnormal levels of short-selling in the three days before downgrades are publicly announced. Further, we show that this pre-announcement abnormal short-selling is significantly related to the subsequent share price reaction to the downgrade, and especially so for downgrades that prompt the most substantial price declines. Our findings are robust to various controls that might also affect short-selling such as pre-announcement momentum, three-day pre-announcement returns, and announcement-day share price. In addition, the results are independent of scheduled earnings announcements, analyst herding, and non-routine events near downgrades. Further evidence suggests that tipping is more consistent with the data than the prediction explanation which posits that short sellers successfully predict downgrades on the basis of public information about firms’ financial health. Finally, we present evidence that downgraded stocks with high abnormal short-selling perform poorly over the subsequent six months by comparison with those with low abnormal short-selling. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that short sellers are informed traders and exploit profitable opportunities provided by downgrade announcements.     

Foreign institutional ownership and stock market liquidity: Evidence from Indonesia

From January 2002 to August 2007, foreign institutions held almost 70% of the free-float value of the Indonesian equity market, or 41% of the total market capitalization. Over the same period, liquidity on the Jakarta Stock Exchange improved substantially with the average bid–ask spread more than halved and the average depth more than doubled. In this study we examine the Granger causality between foreign institutional ownership and liquidity, while controlling for persistence in foreign ownership and liquidity measures. We find that foreign holdings have a negative impact on future liquidity: a 10% increase in foreign institutional ownership in the current month is associated with approximately 2% increase in the bid–ask spread, 3% decrease in depth, and 4% rise in price sensitivity in the next month, challenging the view that foreign institutions enhance liquidity in small emerging markets. Our findings are consistent with the negative liquidity impact of institutional investor ownership in developed markets.     

Premiums,discounts and feedback trading: Evidence from emerging markets' ETFs

This study investigates the extent to which ETFs' premiums and discounts motivate feedback trading in emerging markets' ETFs. Using a sample of the first-ever launched broad-index ETFs from four emerging markets (Brazil, India, South Africa and South Korea), we produce evidence denoting that feedback trading grows in significance in the presence of lagged premiums. The significance of feedback trading becomes more widespread across our sample's ETFs as the lagged premiums grow in magnitude, with evidence also suggesting that the effect of lagged premiums over feedback trading varies prior to and after the outbreak of the recent global financial crisis.     

Investor sentiment and feedback trading: Evidence from the exchange-traded fund markets

This paper extends the standard feedback trading model of Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) by allowing the demand for shares by feedback traders to depend on sentiment. Our empirical analysis of three largest Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) contracts in the U.S. suggests that there is a significant positive feedback trading in these markets and the intensity of which is generally linked to investor sentiment. Specifically, the level of feedback trading tends to increase when investors are optimistic. In addition, we find that the influence of sentiment on feedback trading varies across market regimes. These results are consistent with the view that feedback trading activity is largely caused by the presence of sentiment-driven noise trading. Overall, the findings are important in understanding the role of sentiment in investment behaviour and market dynamics and are of direct relevance to the regulators and investors in ETF markets.