How do extended benefits affect unemployment duration? A regression discontinuity approach

This paper studies a targeted program that extends the maximum duration of unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to 209 weeks in Austria. Sharp discontinuities in treatment assignment at age 50 and at the border between eligible regions and control regions identify the effect of extended benefits on unemployment duration. Results indicate that the duration of job search is prolonged by at least 0.09 weeks per additional week of benefits among men, whereas unemployment duration increases by at least 0.32 weeks per additional week of benefits for women. This finding is consistent with a lower early retirement age applying to women.     

How do services of owner-occupied housing affect income inequality and redistribution?

This paper aims at analyzing the redistributive impact that the inclusion of the imputed rental market value of owner-occupied housing would have if used for quantifying the ability to pay rather than imputation based on cadastral values. We consider the Spanish personal income tax as reference, due to the differential treatment that it provides for imputed income from owner-occupied housing, together with the exceptionally high percentages of home ownership in Spain. By means of micro-simulation we explore the consequences of alternative possibilities for dealing with implicit income from owner-occupied housing.     

How do Google searches for symptoms,news and unemployment interact during COVID-19? A Lotka–Volterra analysis of google trends data

Quality & Quantity - In this paper I exploit Google searches for the topics “symptoms”, “unemployment” and “news” as a proxy for how much attention people...     

How useful are signals? A micro-structure analysis

We analyze how the market processes a signaling event by studying a sample of self-tender offers, events often viewed as signals of firm value. By examining changes in the degree of informed trading, we find asymmetric information costs fall at announcement, remain low throughout the event, and increase at offer expiration. By 1 month following expiration, informed trading returns to a level not significantly different from that prior to the offer. Higher risk firms have significantly larger declines in information asymmetry during the offer. Increases in information asymmetry persist 1 month following expiration for firms with lower pre-offer informed trading.

What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis

We consider which factors determined the price–rent ratio for the housing market in 18 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and at the national level over the period of 1975–2014. Based on a present-value framework, our proposed empirical model separates the price–rent ratio for a given market into unobserved components related to the expected real rent growth and the expected housing return, but is modified from standard present-value analysis by also including a residual component that captures non-stationary deviations of the price–rent ratio from its present-value level. Estimates for the modified present-value model suggest that the present-value residual (PVR) component is always important and sometimes very large at the national and MSA levels, especially for MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. In further analysis, we find that house prices in MSAs that have larger PVR components are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. These are also the MSAs with less elastic housing supply. Also, comparing our results with a recent statistical test for periodically-collapsing bubbles, we find that MSAs with large estimated PVR components are the same MSAs that test positively for explosive sub-periods in their price–rent ratios, especially during the 2005–2007 subsample. Our approach allows us to estimate the correlation between shocks to expected rent growth, the expected housing return, and the PVR component. We find that the expected housing return and movements in the PVR component are highly positively correlated implying an impact of the expected housing return on house prices that is amplified from what a standard present-value model would imply. Our results also show that most of the variation in the present-value component of the price–rent ratio arises due to the variation in the expected housing return.     

How do stock price indices absorb the COVID-19 pandemic shocks?

To assess the resiliency of stock price indices during the COVID-19 crisis, this study provides a distinctive perspective; that is, we evaluate the ability of stock price indices to absorb COVID-19 shocks. We construct the measures of absorptive intensity and duration to identify a stock price’s absorptive capacity. We then employ the Granger causality test and a topology network approach to investigate the interactions of absorptivity among stock price indices. Our results show that stock price absorptivity varies over time and across countries and industries. The US and the Brazil stock indices have relatively high absorptive intensity while short duration. The health care industry shows distinctive trend in absorptive intensity from the other industries. The intensity of the non-cyclical industries such as utilities and consumer staples is high, while the cyclical industries such as banking, real estate, and energy have lower absorptive intensity. Moreover, the utilities, consumer staples, and financials industries are the main resiliency transmitters.     

How do experienced traders respond to inflows of inexperienced traders? An experimental analysis

We conducted asset market experiments where one experienced subject interacts with five inexperienced subjects to investigate how experienced subjects change their price forecasts and trading behavior when faced with strategic uncertainty caused by inflows of inexperienced subjects. Only half the experienced subjects initially forecasted prices deviating more from the fundamental values in the market with five inexperienced subjects than in the final round of the experiment in which they had previously participated. Furthermore, the majority of our experienced subjects did not change their trading behavior. Many experienced subjects act as price stabilizers when the inflow of inexperienced subjects is not associated with other changes in market conditions.     

How do the employment effects of job creation schemes differ with respect to the foregoing unemployment duration?

Based on new administrative data for Germany covering entrances into job creation schemes between July 2000 and May 2001, we evaluate the effects of this active labour market policy programme considering the timing of treatment in the individual unemployment spell. Applying propensity score matching in a dynamic setting where the time until treatment in the unemployment spell is stratified into quarters, regional (East and West Germany) as well as gender differences are considered in the estimation. The results in terms of employment present a heterogeneous, but disappointing picture. For West Germany, most of the estimates are insignificant at the end of the observation period, and only one positive exception could be established. In East Germany, none of the groups experiences an improvement of the labour market situation, but the employment chances tend to be reduced due to participation even 30 months after start of programmes.     

How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?

This paper analyses the performance of GDP growth and inflation forecasts for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2007, as provided by 13 international institutions, including multilateral, private and academic forecasters. The empirical results show that there is a positive correlation between the number of forecasters covering a given country and the forecast accuracy. Simple combined forecasts are shown to be unbiased and more accurate than most of the individual forecasters, although also inefficient. However, only a few institutions provide efficient and unbiased forecasts, with just one out of 13 forecasters providing both unbiased and efficient forecasts of both GDP growth and inflation in the observed period. The directional analysis shows a correct forecast of the change in the forecast indicator in over two thirds of cases. However, the eventual outcome is within the range of available forecasts in less than half of the cases, with more than 40% of outcomes for GDP growth above the highest forecast. Encouragingly, forecasts are shown to be improving over time and becoming more accurate with the increase in the number of forecasting institutions – forecast accuracy measured by mean absolute error improves by 0.3 percentage points for growth and by 0.2 percentage points for inflation for each additional institution providing forecasts.     

How to design virus containment policies? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19-related lockdown policies on economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation...     

How effective is monetary transmission in low-income countries? A survey of the empirical evidence

This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the “facts on the ground” and “methodological deficiencies” interpretations of the absence of evidence for strong monetary transmission. We suspect that “facts on the ground” are an important part of the story. If this conjecture is correct, the stabilization challenge in developing countries is acute indeed, and identifying the means of enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy in such countries is an important challenge.     

How far do cultural differences explain the differences between nations? Implications for HRM

This conceptual paper argues that national differences in human resource management (HRM) matter and can be explained by cultural and institutional theories. We explore briefly the nature of each set of theories and some of the critiques that have been made of them. We argue that in general much of the differences in HRM between countries are determined by institutional factors, and that management has more influence over the effect of national cultural differences than it has over institutional differences and therefore in most cases the appropriate tests will be tests against institutional differences. Where institutions are less constraining, cultural differences may be the appropriate template.     

How culture-sensitive is HRM? A comparative analysis of practice in Chinese and UK companies

There has been some concern about the extent to which models and practices of HRM are capable of being transferred from one country to another. This emerged in the late 1970s as concern that Japanese ideas might be adopted uncritically by US companies, and during the 1980s as concern that these ideas, after recycling within the US, might not be totally appropriate for consumption in other parts of the world. Further urgency is added to the question by the pressures on many organizations to develop their businesses internationally, or globally – since this increasingly means they have to consider and establish HRM policies which can span different national systems and cultures.

This paper considers the problem through a direct comparison of practices in matched Chinese and UK companies in order to establish where variations occur both within and between countries. It is evident that there are considerable variations in the form of HRM in different settings, but also some surprising similarities. Thus, for example, there are more similarities in manpower planning systems between Chinese companies and some of the UK companies than there are between all the UK companies. In this case it can be concluded that these elements are not greatly affected by national (and assumed cultural) differences. On the other hand, there is a sharp difference between the UK and Chinese companies with regard to pay and reward systems, but much consistency within each country. This suggests that there may be deep-seated differences between the two countries with regard to attitudes towards rewards which will limit the transfer-ability of HRM ideas in this area.     

How well do urban growth boundaries contain development? Results for Oregon using a difference-in-difference estimator

Urban containment policies, including urban growth boundaries (UGBs), are a common tool used by city planners to promote compact development. We analyze how well UGBs do in containing development using fine-scale GIS data on cities in Oregon. Earlier studies on UGBs yield mixed results, with some authors finding no effects of UGBs on housing market variables and urbanization rates and others finding significant effects. A challenge in measuring these effects is that the location of the UGB is unlikely to be an exogenous determinant of a land parcel's value for development. The panel structure of our dataset allows us to estimate the UGB's effect on the probability of development using a difference-in-difference estimator applied to a narrow band of plots along each city's UGB. This estimator controls for time-invariant unobservable variables and common temporal effects among plots, thereby mitigating the potential for biased estimates due to the endogeneity of the UGB's location. We also pursue a novel approach to controlling for time-varying factors that exploits our fine-scale data. We find that UGBs contain development in many of the Oregon cities we examine, although there are some cities in which development rates are the same inside and outside of the UGB. Our results reveal that, in most cities, the effect of the UGB is small relative to pre-existing differences in development probabilities. This suggests that it may be difficult to identify UGB effects with cross-sectional data, the approach commonly taken in previous studies.     

How do trade openness,public expenditure and institutional performance affect unemployment in OIC countries? Evidence from the DCCE approach

This study explores the relationship between trade openness, public expenditure, institutional performance, and unemployment in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) (formerly the Organization of the Islamic Conference). The conventional panel data techniques overlook cross-sectional dependence and yield-biased results. A new methodology called dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) is employed to deal with the issue of cross-sectional dependence. The long-run results demonstrate that trade openness is inversely and significantly associated with overall unemployment and youth unemployment in lower-income as well as all the OIC economies and positively correlated in the higher-income OIC group. Public expenditure has an inverse and significant correlation with unemployment in OIC countries overall and higher-income OIC countries. Moreover, institutional performance and foreign direct investment are negatively related to unemployment in all OIC economies. The research shows the need for the continuation of open trade policies, strong institutions, and higher public expenditure in the OIC countries in order to decrease overall unemployment—in particular, youth unemployment.     

Do entrepreneurs from institutionally distinct countries apply different decision logic when internationalizing their companies? A multiple-case analysis

Literature on entrepreneurs’ decision logic has either focused on effectuation or causation, lacking comparison and analysis of logics when founders come from different institutional environments. This paper presents an exploratory study examining the behaviors, beliefs, and decisions of entrepreneurs (all typical drivers for new market entries), considering those institutional differences. Research was based on the comparison of two case studies of young software companies, one from Brazil and one from Germany, each founded by two entrepreneurs with similar academic and professional backgrounds. Results indicate that apparently, business environment affects founders’ decision logics with much more strength than the institutional environment.     

How and when do prior international experiences lead to global work? A career motivation perspective

While research suggests a link between individuals' prior international experiences and their future participation in global work, we know little about how and the conditions under which this relationship occurs. Drawing on career motivation theory, we conceptualize global identity as a mediator between individuals' density of prior international experiences—defined as the extent to which time spent in culturally novel countries has provided individuals with developmental opportunities—and their global work aspirations, which in turn leads to their global work involvement. Further, this multi-stage mediation model holds mainly when individuals receive positive feedback regarding their intercultural competencies (i.e., cultural intelligence) from their peers. We test our model using a multi-wave multi-source dataset spanning 6 years. We discuss implications for the literatures on prior international experiences and global careers.