Monthly rent with variable deposit: A new form of rental contract in Korea

In this paper, we describe the structure of the monthly-rent-with-variable-deposit (MRVD) contract, a distinct type of rental contract in Korea. We demonstrate that the Chonsei contract is one variant of the MRVD contract. To explain the MRVD contract, we propose a leverage-effect-seeking hypothesis. Based on this hypothesis, we are able to elucidate a variety of rental market conditions in Korea. Our hypothesis is consistent with the simultaneous existence of several types of rental contracts and various combinations of monthly rent, as well as the up-front deposit in the MRVD contracts. We also focused on the deposit-to-monthly-rent conversion rate, a critical factor in the Korean rental housing market. Our hypothesis indicates that conversion rates vary across local markets depending on local market conditions, such as the expected house price appreciation rate. The results of our data analysis demonstrate that our hypothesis more adequately explains the observed trend in the conversion rate, as well as that in the MRVD contracts.     

Household wealth accumulation and portfolio choices in Korea

This paper constructs a quantitative lifecycle model with uninsurable labor income and housing return risk to investigate how Korean households make saving and portfolio decisions. The model not only incorporates the special roles housing plays in the portfolio of households: collateral, a source of service flows, as well as a source of potential capital gains or losses, but also adds to existing models of wealth accumulation some unique institutional features present in Korea, namely the rental system (‘chonsae’) and the lack of a mortgage system. When the model is calibrated to match the Korean economy, several key features of the data are better able to be reproduced. The paper also analyzes the role of institutional features by comparing several alternative housing market arrangements to assess their impact on wealth accumulation, portfolio choices, and homeownership. A 10 percentage points reduction in down-payment requirement is associated with approximately 1 percentage point increase in the aggregate homeownership ratio in Korea. Lower down-payment also increases the fraction of aggregate wealth held in housing assets but lowers aggregate net worth with mixed demographic implications.     

Inflation, tax advantages to homeownership and the locational choices of households

The U.S. tax system encourages investment in owner-occupied housing by allowing consumers to deduct mortgage interest and to exclude net imputed rental income from taxable income. The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze how this tax treatment affects the housing and locational choices of urban households. It is shown that the effect of the tax treatment on these choices is sensitive to the preferences of consumers and the rate of anticipated inflation. To illustrate the likely size and direction of these effects, an example is constructed based upon econometric estimates of the parameters of the model.     

Do Landlords Discriminate? The Incidence and Causes of Racial Discrimination in Rental Housing Markets

Discrimination in housing markets occurs when equally qualified people are treated differently because of their membership in a particular group. This study focuses on racial and ethnic discrimination in qualitative actions by landlords, such as making an advertised housing unit available for inspection by a customer. The data come from the Housing Discrimination study, which conducted over 1500 rental housing audits in 25 metropolitan areas in 1989. Each audit consists of a visits to a landlord by a white person and either a black or Hispanic person with similar socio-economic characteristics. Using Chamberlain's fixed-effect logic estimation, we develop a nationally representative measure of the incidence of discrimination in landlord behavior and conduct hypothesis tests on the incidence and causes of discrimination. The results indicate widespread discrimination across several types of landlord behavior and support the hypotheses that landlords discriminate both out of personal prejudice and in response to the prejudice of present and future white clients.     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.     

基于公平的中低收入居民住房保障体系研究

住房问题是关系到国计民生的大问题,为低收入者提供住房是住房保障制度重要内容,也是构建和谐社会的必然要求。我国已经初步建立起了以经济适用房制度、廉租房制度、住房公积金为主要内容的住房保障制度。从财政和金融政策两大层面,分析了我国住房保障制度的财政金融支持问题,提出了解决住房保障资金问题的路径选择,主要包括:完善政府住房保障投入;设立专业性的住房银行;发展并完善商业性抵押贷款业务等。     

An Economic Analysis of Housing Abandonment

Landlord abandonment of rental housing has affected many American cities since the 1960's. Because of data limitations, there have been few empirical analyses of the determinants of housing abandonment. In this paper, we use a rich database that contains information on individual residential properties in New York City to estimate a reduced form model of owner abandonment. We model an owner's decision to abandon his or her property as being similar to an investor's decision to exercise a put option on a financial instrument. When required to pay delinquent taxes, a wealth-maximizing landlord has an incentive to cede ownership of his or her residential property when the value of all outstanding liens exceeds the property's market value. Estimates from the model are used to examine whether empirical evidence supports this option model of abandonment.     

Housing tenure choice: Evidence from time series

A model of tenure choice is specified and estimated. A simple expression to represent the expected rate of return on equity for a homeowner is developed. Also the influence of the federal housing subsidy programs is analyzed. Both, plus permanent income and the implicit rental price of owner-occupied housing, are important determinants of tenure choice. Other influences are the financing gap with the standard mortgage instrument in an inflationary environment, the number of children less than 18 per family, assets and liabilities, and mortgage credit terms. Finally, the changes in housing tenure choice over the estimation period are analyzed.     

Brokers’ contractual arrangements in the Manhattan residential rental market

We bring new evidence to bear on the role of intermediaries in frictional matching markets and on how parties design contracts with them. Specifically, we examine two features of contracts between landlords and agents in the Manhattan residential rental market. In our data, 72 percent of listings involve exclusive relationships between landlords and agents (the remaining 28 percent are non-exclusive); and in 21 percent of listings, the landlord commits to pay the agent’s fee (in the other 79 percent, the tenant pays the agent’s the fee). Our analysis highlights that these contractual features reflect landlords’ concerns about providing agents with incentives to exert effort specific to their rental units and to screen among heterogeneous tenants.     

Tenancy Databases,Professional Practices and Housing Access among Low‐Income Tenants in the Private Rental Sector in Australia

This essay addresses the impacts of electronic tenancy databases upon social relations in the field of private rental tenancy in Australia. Insights arise from research carried out, in 2002–3, in the eastern, mainland states of Australia that included interviews with tenants and property managers in the private rental sector. Property managers viewed tenancy databases as a tool for efficient, effective and professional risk management, and ‘professional’ practice was held to render misconduct or improper listings extremely unlikely. In this context, tenants were individualized and expected to actively work to construct, maintain and document their reputation as a ‘good tenant’. For tenants, tenancy databases could have a particular, definitive effect. ‘Not being listed’ (along with getting a full rental bond refund, references from previous landlords, and so on) is an indicator that helps build a satisfactory, personal rental history. On the other hand, being ‘listed’ is read as a prime indicator of risk and effectively overriding other aspects of a tenant’s application for tenancy. ‘Listed’ tenants find themselves being forced to shift further and further away from the formal rental market and ultimately into insecure and inappropriate housing arrangements at the periphery.     

Housing market dynamics

The purpose of this paper is to consider the dynamic behavior of housing markets. I first set out a model in which interest rates affect the implicit rental value of housing and indicate how the latter is related to the stock demand for housing and new construction. Using this model and the actual values of U.S. mortgage interest rates in the late 60's and 70's I then find those values of the model's parameters most consistent with fluctuations in new construction in that period. Finally, I simulate the effects of various shocks to the model.     

城市廉租房建设规模的对策分析:以江苏省为例

在江苏省13地市进行抽样调查的基础上,采用情景分析法,确定江苏省城市廉租房的建设规模及其情景模式.结果表明:在1%廉租房保障水平下,最低需要建设的廉租房面积约为250万m2,在5%廉租房保障水平下,最高需要建设的廉租房面积约为1883万m2,最高和最低保障面积相差约7.5倍,显然廉租房的建设要分步骤、分阶段实现,不能采取一刀切的一步到位方式.在此基础上对廉租房的来源及管理体制提出相应的发展对策,供有关决策部门参考.     

基于Logistic回归的房客信用评价模型研究

国内的房屋租赁市场存在严重的房客信用缺失现象,给房东带来了信用风险,亟待建立科学的房客信用评价机制来控制信用风险。文章结合房屋租赁的具体情况,提出了一套房客信用评价指标体系,并使用问卷调查收集的房客数据建立了基于Logistic回归的评价模型,最后对模型进行了检验和评估。实证结果表明,利用此指标体系和评价模型能够有效地预测房客风险,为实际租房提供决策支持。     

The Japanese Tenant Protection Law and Asymmetric Information on Tenure Length

The Japanese Tenant Protection Law (JTPL) protects tenure security to such an extent that landlords cannot terminate a contract at the end of a tenancy period without just cause. Hence, information on intended tenure length is important for landlords in managing rental housing. A model is developed in which landlords cannot foresee the intended tenure length of prospective tenants. If landlords are sufficiently risk-averse under asymmetric information on tenure length, the JTPL reduces the equilibrium quantity of rental housing, resulting in inefficiency of the Japanese rental-housing market.     

A dymimic model of housing price determination

This paper presents and estimates a model of the resale housing market. The data are a cross-section of monthly time series obtained from the multiple-listing service for a suburb of San Diego. The model is specified and estimated as a dynamic multiple indicator multiple cause system of equations where the capitalization rate is taken to be an unobservable time series to be estimated jointly with the unknown parameters. These are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm based upon Kalman filtering and smoothing.The specification of the model features hedonic equations for each house sale and a dynamic equation for the capitalization rate which is constrained to make the expectation of prices equal the present value of the net returns to home ownership whenever the economic variables stabilize at steady state values. Out of steady state, the capitalization rate slowly adapts to new information.The model attributes a large portion of housing price increases of the 1970's to a fall in the capitalization rate which in turn was driven by rental inflation, tax rates and mortgage rates. Post-sample simulations indicate an initial flattening of housing inflation rates and later a fall brought on by the increase in steady state capitalization rates. In-sample simulations show that although both Proposition 13 and the inflation induced rise in the marginal income tax rates provided partial explanations for the fall in capitalization rates, the single most important factor was the acceleration in price of housing services which interacted with the tax treatment of home ownership to produce an amazing 18% average annual rate of price increase over the last seven years of the 1970's.     

在全面深化改革背景下发展住房租赁市场

我国住房租赁市场的发展严重滞后于住房交易市场,大力推进住房租赁市场的建设,不仅有利于形成住房梯级消费,还有助于丰富、完善房地产市场体系和市场结构,从广度和深度上推进市场化改革。通过对租买选择无差异、租金和投资关系的分析以及信息不对称与福利经济学理论的阐述,在借鉴国外住房租赁市场成功发展经验的基础上,从加强房地产市场体系与制度建设、多元化的市场供给、市场平台的搭建、市场环境的营造、市场监管等方面对推进我国住房租赁市场的建设提出对策建议。     

Why Do Mortgage Markets Matter?

1999 saw the return of large scale mortgage equity - ie mortgage borrowing to finance consumption rather than house purchase - for the first time for a decade. Recent developments of the OEF macroeconometric model of the UK economy have focused on the determination of mortgage lending, looking in particular at the impact of downpayment constraints - ie the deposit borrowers have to put down when they buy a house. In this article, Geoffrey Meen uses this model to analyse the effects of mortgages on: (i) the cycle in the UK housing market at a national level; (ii) regional house price differentials; and (iii) aggregate savings and consumer behaviour.     

住房公积金投资组合研究

本文总结了近年来全国住房公积金投资结构的变化过程,分析了银行存款和购买国债的收益和风险状况,指出利率风险是住房公积金投资组合的主要风险,构建了基于久期的多目标规划模型,并利用最新的银行存款和国债利率数据进行了实证分析,发现半年期定期存款和3年期凭证式国债具有相对较高的投资价值,当两者按照8∶2的比例构成住房公积金投资组合时,可以获得较高的收益和较低的风险。     

Inclusionary Zoning and Exclusionary Development: The Politics of ‘Affordable Housing' in North Brooklyn

A key element of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's New Housing Marketplace program has been the use of voluntary inclusionary zoning, through which private developers have been offered tax breaks and density bonuses to develop affordable housing on newly rezoned land. While this program has failed to alleviate the housing affordability crisis in New York City, little attention has been paid to its political effects on community‐based struggles over housing. This article addresses this question by examining the 2005 Greenpoint‐Williamsburg Waterfront Rezoning, which combined a voluntary inclusionary zoning program with a tenant services contract intended to mitigate the residential displacement effects of the rezoning. I critically examine its design, execution and monitoring, based on two years of work as an organizer and administrator of the tenant services contract. I argue that technologies of consent and control have reshaped the politics of housing in North Brooklyn by replacing resistance to gentrification with amelioration of its effects, through the anticipated creation of affordable housing. The upshot has been an emergent politics of housing in which real estate‐led development is regarded not as a cause of gentrification but as its solution.     

现行政策下商业地产的发展趋势

一、现行宏观政策对商业地产的影响 从2004年起，鉴于政策导向，商业地产开发变得炙热起来。由于商业地产的利润比住宅开发要平均高出5％N10％，吸引了越来越多的投资者转向商业地产的开发。2005年1月1日开始，跨国零售商已开始在中国的全方位扩张。外资的到来推动国内商业市场发展，为商业地产带来巨大商机。2006年至2008...