政府保障房供求补贴的不同效果

解决中低收入人群的基本住房问题是实现社会公平的基本国策之一。为了有效地实施保障性安居工程，通过构建数学模型研究在财政补贴率相同的条件下，住房消费补贴与住房供给补贴的成交价格、成交量与社会福利情况，可以发现这两者之间存在较大的差别，前者的成交价格、成交量和社会福利都高于后者，但前者比后者的财政补贴额更多。如果提高财政补贴率，那么前者成交价格会不断提高，而后者成交价格会不断降低，成交量都会呈现扩大趋势。成交价格、成交量和社会福利不但与财政补贴率及其补贴方式有关，也与住房的需求弹性和供给弹性有关。研究结论的政策意义在于，如果在政府财力有限、住房价格上涨压力较大的条件下，应当采用住房供给补贴；如果在政府财力相对宽松、住房价格上涨压力相对较小、依靠住房拉动经济增长的压力较大的条件下，则应当采用住房消费补贴，同时它还能实现公平与效率兼顾的目的。无论是采用住房消费补贴还是住房供给补贴，都应当增大供给弹性，减小需求弹性。     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

中国城市居民住房支付能力研究

虽然住宅价格是由住宅市场的供给和需求决定的,但从长期来看,住宅价格应该与城市居民家庭的住房支付能力相适应.评价住房支付能力的指标有房价收入比(PIR)和住房可支付性指数(HAI),房价收入比用于判读住房价格是否合理,而住房可支付性指数能够反映家庭购买住房的还贷能力.论文通过计算2004年我国34个主要城市的房价收入比和住房可支付性指数,对我国城市居民的住房支付能力进行了城市排序.参照国外相关指标的评价标准,论文采用Pareto累计图的评价方法,得出了我国当前房价收入比和住房可支付性指数的分布区间.论文的研究成果既可作为政府调控城市住宅市场发展的依据,也可作为居民投资置业的依据.     

Supply constraints and housing market dynamics

Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.     

House price convergence in euro zone and non-euro zone countries

This study investigates whether single currency use increased house price convergence among various countries. First, the panel unit root test results indicate that the house prices in euro zone countries were more correlated than the house prices in non-euro zone countries. Second, the house prices in various European countries converged towards the house prices in Germany, which uses the single currency, rather than towards those in the United Kingdom, indicating that single currency use increased the influence of the German housing market on other markets. Finally, the log t regression model, a new convergence test, was employed and determined that the house prices in various European countries were not converging before 1992 but began to do so after that year. After the euro was implemented as an official currency, the house prices in various countries converged towards a consistent level. On the basis of the relative transition paths, this study determines that the differences among housing markets in various countries have continuously decreased since 1992. The empirical results indicate that the law of one price is applicable to tradable goods and that single currency use can integrate housing markets, which include non-tradable goods.     

Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data

This paper re-examines one of the key parameters in housing economics – the price elasticity of housing supply. In the international literature, there is little agreement on its value or even on the appropriate methodology for its measurement. The paper argues that different spatial scales capture different aspects of the problem and, therefore, there is merit from comparing results at international, national, local and firm level. Using standardised models, there is evidence that the responsiveness of housing supply to market conditions is lower in Britain than in the US or Australia. However, supply is more responsive to the change in house prices than their level. With exceptions, most past research on supply in Britain concentrates on the national or regional dimensions. The paper finds that there are also insights to be obtained from examining local and firm level data. Local estimation across the Thames Gateway shows the importance of planning constraints on supply elasticities, but historical patterns of land use and geography are also important. Firm level data indicate that supply elasticities are greater for large firms than for small firms.     

货币和税收政策对我国住房价格的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

基于我国1999-2010年房地产市场季度数据,本文建立向量自回归模型(VAR)和向量误差修正模型(VEC),将住房供给和需求同时纳入模型,分析我国利率政策、信贷政策和税收政策对住房价格的影响。结果显示,贷款利率在短期内对住房供给有负效应,但长期效应不明显;贷款规模对住房价格的短期冲击明显,二者之间存在正相关关系;针对保有环节征税可以通过影响住房供给,从而有效抑制住房价格上升。根据我国住房供求特点,应优先选择税收工具,通过促进住房供给实现控制房价的政策目标。     

Managing hedonic housing price indexes: The French experience

Despite their theoretical advantages, hedonic housing price indexes are not so commonly computed by statistical agencies or real estate professionals. Many published indexes still rely on mean or median prices, or favor repeat-sales methods, which require less information about the attributes of the housing units and less econometric expertise on the part of the index compilers, but may be less accurate and robust. In France as in other countries where housing sales have to be recorded in front of a notary, data on transaction prices and characteristics of dwellings are available. Such data have been centralized since 1994, and quarterly hedonic housing price indexes have been computed for more than 10 years. This paper describes the institutional setting of housing transactions in France, and the collaboration between the notaries and the national statistical agency (INSEE). The former are responsible for data collection and regular computation, whereas the latter takes scientific responsibility for the method. The detailed information on the individual properties transacted remains proprietary data, but disaggregated indexes are publicly and freely available. This organization and assignment of roles has proven effective and might be extended to countries with similar institutional settings.     

解决住房购买力问题的国际经验借鉴

随着经济全球化的发展，由高房价衍生出的住房购买力问题已经成为一个世界范围的难题。近几年国内房价持续大幅上涨，加上贫富两极分化加剧，中国也正面临严重的住房购买力危机。本文从国际化视角描述了住房购买力问题的全球化，阐述了其产生的原因，重点分析了不同国家衡量住房购买力的标准，评价了相关政策的执行效果及其对中国的启示。     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit

The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of the economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correction model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2–2008q4. The results establish a two way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households’ expectations about the future development of their own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side of the housing market, these effects are dampened.     

房价变动规律性及调控对策研究

房价的变动既是经济问题,更是政治和社会问题的体现.我国房地产业已经成为拉动国民经济发展的重要支柱产业.金融危机爆发后,房价的大幅波动引起了世界各主要国家的高度关注.本丈结合我国房地产业发展的实际,对房价的变动情况、变动规律性及调控对策问题进行了初步探讨.本文提出影响房价变动的十大要素,对各要素与房价这一变量变动的相关性进行了分析研究,以实现前瞻性的指导房地产业健康发展的目的.     

限价商品住房管理模式思考

近年来,随着我国房地产市场的持续升温,各地的房价涨幅居高不下,已经对城市中低收入居民的基本住房需求造成很大影响.为了缓解供需矛盾,稳定住房价格,中央提出了"双限双竞"的宏观调控措施,各地也纷纷依据精神推出了限价商品住房供应政策.文章主要从限价商品住房管理中存在的主要问题入手,结合国内几个城市的相关政策经验及存在问题,提出对限价商品住房管理模式的几点思考.     

国外住房合作社的经验与启示

住房舍作社作为解决低收入者住房问题的社会团体组织,在国外已有一百多年的历史.鉴于住房合作社在解决低收入者住房方面的重要作用,国外的住房合作社在发展的过程中普遍得到了政府的大力支持.在当前我国各大城市房价扶摇直上的背景下,我们应该借鉴国外发展住房合作社的经验,发展我国的住房合作社,使城市中的低收入者实现居者有其屋.     

A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries

This study uses data from six Eurozone countries and the United Kingdom between 1980Q1 and 2018Q4 to examine whether these countries had housing bubbles during the observed period. Whereas typical studies make strictly limited assumptions regarding interest rates, we make an unconventional argument for the necessity of testing the integration relationship between the price–rent ratio and the interest rate reciprocal to determine the existence of housing bubbles. To verify this study’s proposition, two housing bubble indicators were adopted to dynamically examine periods of housing bubbles in European countries by using a series of individual countries and panel data from Eurozone countries. According to the empirical results for individual countries, although the price–rent ratio indicates the occurrence of housing booms in the targeted countries, the evidence for housing bubbles is unclear. The dynamic bubble indicator revealed that housing bubbles occurred in France and Ireland within a short period in 1993Q3 and 2000Q2, respectively. Spain experienced two short-term housing bubbles in 1990Q1 and 2015Q1. The short-term bubbles signify that the housing markets were efficient. Once the price–rent ratio failed to converge toward the nominal interest rate, market traders’ rational behavior can immediately correct the short-term market divergence. The panel data of the Eurozone countries also reveals that simply using the price–rent ratio for examination may underestimate the correction of the housing markets. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of the interest rate in controlling the housing market.     

城市住房价格指数编制方法的拓展设计及实证检验

科学监测城市房价走势,在当前环境下尤为重要。为拓展国际通行方法编制国内单一城市房价指数的适用性,引入样本匹配重复交易法构建房价指数,以提高样本容量与可比性。基于上海数据的实证结果表明,相较于传统重复交易法和特征价格法,样本匹配重复交易法能更准确地反映住房价格变动,结果异常波动性更小,噪声影响程度更低,在克服样本代表性误差和变量缺失误差方面效果更显著,对编制国内城市房价指数具有较好应用价值。     

The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值：为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格？基于Mayo（1981）构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果：2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。     

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing markets. We fit a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to empirical housing market data for six OECD countries, US, JP, UK, NL, SE and BE. Two different estimation approaches are considered – Cobb׳s method and Euler discretization. The analysis shows that while Cobb׳s approach describes the long-run stationary density better, Euler discretization is more tailored for time series, as it provides better one-step-ahead predictions. Proceeding using the Euler discretization method we discuss the dynamics of housing markets in terms of the multiple equilibria cusp catastrophe model. By considering the long-term interest rate as an exogenous variable we obtain new insights into the policy implications of interest rate levels, in particular concerning the stability of housing markets.     

Divergence in Reservation Prices and Its Impact on Housing Market Liquidity: A Theoretical Analysis

In this paper, we build a two-period English auction model to study the relative movements between buyers’ and sellers’ reservation prices in the housing market. We show that changes in sellers’ reservation prices are jointly determined by changes in buyers’ reservation prices, probability of buyers offering a high or low price, and the arrival rate of buyers. When the divergence between the buyers’ and sellers’ reservation prices widens, the probability of sale increases in the upward market and decreases in the downward market, contributing to the increases or decreases in market liquidity.