Trump versus Reagan – the global dimension

• ? Could the Trump era resemble the 1980s? ‘Reaganomics’ boosted world growth – but not necessarily in the ways people think – and not for emerging markets (EMs), a larger part of today's world economy. Growth then was also aided by factors such as declining interest rates, which are missing today, and we doubt that deregulation will lead to a productivity surge. US asset prices, meanwhile, were depressed in 1981, unlike now, so the big gains of the 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. EM assets should do better than back then, though.
• ? Optimistic observers – and to some extent, markets – have been drawing parallels between the policy mixes of the Trump and Reagan administrations, and talking up the prospects of stronger global growth. But while the US did support world growth in the 1980s, this was arguably more due to Keynesian' demand‐side policies than supply‐side ones: Reagan's record on supply‐side policies was mixed.
• ? The US is still an important driver of global activity, but markets may be too optimistic about the effect of Trump's policies on world growth. Any Trump fiscal stimulus will occur against a much less favourable background than that of the 1980s, when US growth also benefitted from a variety of factors missing now.
• ? It is also unclear whether Trump's administration will tolerate large expansions of the current account and fiscal deficits as the ‘price’ for more growth. And we are sceptical about the prospects of big gains from deregulation: US economic dynamism has waned, but the policies so far proposed in this area look potentially misdirected.
• ? Over the coming years asset market performance is unlikely to mirror that of the 1980s: valuations suggest less room for dollar appreciation and stock market gains this time around. But emerging market (EM) assets may do better – the soaring dollar and high US rates that hit EMs in the 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. And our analysis suggests even modestly better US growth will support commodity prices and EM growth.

     

数字经济发展现状与发展趋势探索

社会与经济的快速发展,最大限度地推动了我国经济新常态的发展。在此情形之下,相关人员必须对数字经济进行深入而透彻的研究,掌握其特性和特质,结合当下的整体发展趋势和要求,从数字经济与其他各行业的融合与创新出发,不断地对经济结构进行调整和优化。在使数字经济更加符合当下的国情和发展需求的同时,创造更多的社会效益与经济效益。     

The 1997 Election: Can an Improving Economy Secure a Fifth Tory Term?

The current government is in deep electoral trouble. Nothing is certain in politics, but it still seems very likely the Tories will be defeated by New Labour this spring. Yet the economy is in fine shape – inflation and interest rates are at historically low levels, economic growth is proceeding at a respectable rate, and unemployment continues to fall. Why won’t the electorate reward the government? In this article Simon Price argues that the Tories lost their reputation for economic competence in 1992 and this has swayed the public’s opinion.     

中国数字经济规模测度与生产率分析

研究目标:考察中国数字经济的规模与结构特征,分析数字要素对中国经济生产率的影响及其变化趋势。研究方法:基于投入产出序列表数据,结合数字经济内涵、信息经济理论及增长核算方法,建立数字经济规模和全要素生产率测算框架进行分析。研究发现:近年来,中国数字经济规模年均实际增长率高达11.24%,已经成为支撑经济增长的重要推动力量;中国数字经济结构不断变化,数字融合部门增速高于数字替代部门,但二者均低于数字基础部门的增速;中国经济增速逐步放缓,而全要素生产率总体上行,数字资本在经济增长中的份额呈上升趋势。研究创新:提出包含三大效应的数字经济测度理论,将数字经济划分为基础部门、融合部门和替代部门,建立数字经济核算的方法框架,关注并考察了数字要素的增长效应。研究价值:有助于完善数字经济测度理论,为推动中国经济高质量发展提供依据。     

Entrepreneurship and economic development: the EMPRETEC showcase

The hypothesis that entrepreneurship is linked to economic growth finds it’s most immediate foundation in simple intuition, common sense and pure economic observation: activities to convert ideas into economic opportunities lie at the very heart of entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship is a source of innovation and change, and as such spurs improvements in productivity and economic competitiveness. The entrepreneur has been a fundamental agent in most production, distribution and growth theories. The role of entrepreneurship as the driving force of economic growth found its most explicit foundation. Empretec was established in 1988 to promote entrepreneurship in developing countries. Empretec’s programs have been initiated in 27 countries plus additional centers in Brazil, assisting more than 80, entrepreneurs through local driven business support centers. The information collected for this paper was secondary data rather than conducting survey. Therefore, one objectives of this paper is to examine the exact nature of entrepreneurship and its role in economic theory.     

Stepping-stones for integrated chain management in the firm

The Dutch government's National Environmental Policy Plans (issued in 1989 and 1993) identified Integrated Chain Management – the incorporation of sustainability considerations into supply chains and related networks – as an important means of implementing their ambitious environmental objectives in the economic sphere. However, there is a debate going on as to what kind of policy measures would support its adoption and how they can be implemented in practice. Integrated Chain Management has two main features. The first is the flows of materials which result from economic activities. The second is the institutional frameworks which shape the production and consumption processes which drive the material flows. Previous studies have examined the ecological, economic, organizational and public policy aspects of Integrated Chain Management. However, they have not clarified the business logic behind the forces that give rise to chain‒oriented action. This matters because public policy is most effective when it is compatible with existing business trends. This paper therefore examines these trends (in particular Total Quality Management, Supply Chain Management and environmental management) utilizing current literatures and four case studies of large British and Dutch companies. From this examination it generates four stepping-stones for encouraging movement towards Integrated Chain Management. In principle, the results are relevant to all economic sectors. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment.     

The fiscal and monetary response to COVID‐19: What the Great Depression has – and hasn't – taught us

Although some regard the New Deal of the 1930s as exemplifying an aggressive fiscal and monetary response to a severe economic crisis, the US fiscal and monetary policy responses to the COVID‐19 crisis have actually been far more substantial – and, so far, much more effective in reviving aggregate spending. Although many fear that these responses, and the large‐scale increase in bank reserves especially, must eventually cause unwanted inflation, the concurrent sharp decline in money's velocity has thus far more than offset any inflationary effects of money growth, while forward bond prices reflect a general belief that inflation will remain below 2 per cent for at least another decade. Notwithstanding the growth of the Fed's balance sheet, Fed authorities can always check inflation by sufficiently raising the interest return on bank reserves. Nonetheless, recent developments have heightened the risk of ‘fiscal dominance’ of monetary policy at some point in the future.     

Public banking and economic growth: The experiences of 10 countries since the 1950s until 2017

Despite the limited number of empirical works assessing the implications of public banks for economic growth, a wave of these institutions has arisen since 2000. With this in mind, this paper investigates the linkage between these banks and long-run growth in 10 countries. We find discouraging evidence on the role of these institutions in the growth process as public banks contributed to long-run economic growth in only two countries. More precisely, the public bank raised the gross domestic product in the Dominican Republic and investment in Singapore. In the remaining eight countries, long-run growth was harmed, or we did not find a long-run nexus running from the public bank. This is particularly surprising because some public banks in our sample have a long history of proper management and were given an important role in their country's development. We find long-run reverse causality in five countries, and, in all of them but in one, a larger gross domestic product per capita expanded public banks’ assets. Therefore, public banks were following the economic cycle. Considering all this, governments that aim to accelerate economic growth should be more cautious about the creation or promotion of these entities.     

The effects of external and internal shocks on total factor productivity

This paper examines structural changes that occur in the total factor productivity (TFP) within countries. It is possible that some episodes of high economic growth or economic decline are associated with permanent productivity shocks; therefore, this research has two objectives. The first one is to estimate the structural changes present in TFP for a sample of 77 countries between 1950 (1960) and 2000. The second one is to identify possible explanations for breaks. Two sources were analyzed: (i) episodes in political and economic history; (ii) changes in international trade – a measure of absorption of technology. The results suggest that about one-third of the TFP time-series present at least one structural break. Downwards breaks are more common, indicating that after a break the TFP has much difficulty to recover. When we investigated factors related with structural change, developed countries presented a break near the first oil shock while the developing countries’ breaks are more spread along the decades. Thus, external strikes seem to be more relevant for developed countries. However, for each country and break date, it was possible to find an event close to the break date endogenously detected. Last, the relevance of international trade, measured by trade share percentage of GDP, seems to be limited to explain abrupt changes in TFP.     

新型城镇化背景下苏州扩大内需机遇与对策研究

新型城镇化建设是党和政府在全面和深入地认识当前的经济社会发展现状及对未来发展方向的判断和规划下做出的决策。苏州应该抓住国家实施新型城镇化政策机遇，把握其内涵及其带来的变革，通过扩大内需来改变原来以外需驱动为主的经济增长模式，从而继续延续过去三十多年来经济领先发展之路。具体而言，苏州有四个方面的机遇：缩小城乡差距，提高购买能力；配套公共服务，提升消费意愿；治理环境污染，促进绿色消费；划城乡用地，实现集约发展。在经济结构调整方面，遇到一些障碍：一产比重相对较高，二产劳动生产率相对不高，服务业区位受限，现代化面临挑战以及劳动力成本上升等问题。建议苏州可以通过进一步优化产业结构、实施有效的收入政策、配套相应的金融财政政策来扩大内需，实现经济可持续的健康发展。     

Staatliche Gründungsfinanzierung: Stand der Forschung und offene Fragen

This paper provides a survey on the current status of research in the field of public entrepreneurial financing. Most importantly, we investigate the economic justification of public activities in the market for start-up financing by addressing four research questions. First, the paper evaluates whether start-ups support macroeconomic growth at all. Second, we look for evidence of imperfections and market failure in the market for entrepreneurial finance. Third, the paper investigates whether public financing of start-ups is effective in the sense that subsidized firms perform better than non-subsidized ones. Fourth, it needs to be analyzed if existing measures of public financial support for start-ups are efficient, i.e. reach their economic goals cheaper than other measures. The answers to these questions are mostly negative which shows that economic research has no justification to offer for public entrepreneurial financing.     

Full disclosure of tender evaluation models: Background and application in Portuguese public procurement

Public procurement rules in the European Union require that public contracting authorities must publish all tender evaluation criteria and its weights in advance. In order to define sound weights, the authors argue that the scoring rules for all evaluation criteria must be defined beforehand. Furthermore, the authors further argue that those scoring rules should also be published, in order to provide much more relevant and meaningful information for tenderers when preparing their tenders. Based on these evidences, the Portuguese Public Contracts Code compels public contracting authorities in Portugal to publish the comprehensive tender evaluation model in advance. This paper presents the Code, outlines the feasibility of establishing such a model in advance, addresses detailed instructions on how to go about in developing and applying it, and submits that existing European provisions on public procurement could yet go further in ensuring effective transparency, competition and best value for money tenders.     

Universal banking and financial architecture

Discussions of systemic risk after the financial crisis of 2007–09 have focused heavily on so-called “systemically important financial institutions” (SIFIs) a cohort of financial firms that is almost exclusively (but not necessarily) comprised of large, complex and heavily interconnected financial conglomerates. This paper considers the economic and strategic drivers of SIFIs – if such institutions are a key source of systemic risk, it is important to understand how and why they get that way. The paper then sets forth a public-interest perspective on the financial architecture by setting out key benchmarks – static and dynamic efficiency, stability and robustness, and competitiveness – and the tradeoffs that exist between them, and examines how SIFIs can support or detract from these benchmarks. If SIFIs are to be subject to much sharper prudential regulation, its impact must be calibrated against systemic performance benchmarks. Finally, the paper focuses on some of the major regulatory initiatives following the 2007–09 financial crisis, and in particular the US Dodd-Frank legislation of 2010, in terms of their possible impact on business models of SIFIs. The paper concludes that improving the financial architecture in a disciplined, consistent, internationally coordinated and sustained manner with a firm eye to the public interest should ultimately be centered on market discipline. By being forced to pay a significant price for the negative externalities SIFIs generate – in the form of systemic risk – managers and boards will have to draw their own conclusions regarding optimum institutional strategy and structure in the context of the microeconomics and industrial organization of global financial intermediation. If this fails, constraints on their size, complexity and interconnectedness will be a major part of the policy reaction to the next financial crisis.     

财政购买性支出激励与经济持续增长——兼论确立服务型政府的合理性

本文建立了政府支出创新激励经济增长的理论模型,模型表明政府支出对经济增长的效应取决于预算、投资生产率和支出结构.借助VAR实证模型,中国的经验实证分析表明:公共花费是公共投资的基础,也是GDP增长的主要影响变量;公共投资不一定能促进GDP增长.为此,我们提出政策建议:必须转变政府职能,由投资型政府变为服务型政府,以促进经济持续增长.     

中国城市化与经济增长的省际差异分析

采用聚类分析方法、相关分析方法和回归分析方法,对我国省际城市化水平与经济增长水平的差异进行定量分析,得出以下结论:总体来看,经济发展水平与城市化水平有着较密切的正相关关系;个别地区(如广东)的经济发展水平并不完全与城市化发展水平相适应,经济的发展是由其他因素促成的;天津的城市化水平已经接近极限,而北京和上海的城市化水平仍然有进一步发展的空间;对于落后地区来说,发展经济的重要性更重于狂热地进行城市化.     

行业间生产率联动对中国工业生产率增长的影响——引入经济距离矩阵的空间GMM估计

本文把反映行业间生产率联动的购买距离矩阵和销售距离矩阵引入空间自回归模型,研究行业间生产率联动对我国工业生产率增长的影响。为了克服引入社会经济距离矩阵带来的异方差和矩阵的行标准化问题,本文采用空间GMM法进行模型的估计。结果表明,行业生产率联动对我国工业生产率增长具有显著的正影响,并且在资源密集型、劳动密集型和资本密集型工业行业中,行业间生产率联动对工业生产率增长的影响相对于其他因素的影响更为稳健。此外,由销售距离矩阵所体现的联动作用效果整体上大于购买距离矩阵体现的相关效果。     

Greece in the Eurozone: Lessons from a decade of experience

This study examines Greece's experience as a member of the Eurozone over the period 2002 to 2011. In evaluating the Greek experience within the Eurozone, we derive the following fundamental policy lessons that apply both to similar small peripheral EU countries that plan to enter the Eurozone, or any other economic union, and to the Eurozone itself in terms of facilitating their integration in a large monetary union. First, countries with inefficient public systems must re-engineer and restructure the decision making process in the public sector before they become members of an economic union. Second, countries must generate a friendly environment toward business and provide (a) a simple, stable tax system, (b) an effective and efficient justice system, and (c) a high quality educational system. Third, the living standards of the people are determined by the productivity and competitiveness of the economy and not by an inefficient and overspending public sector. Fourth, structural funds should be used to improve the competitiveness of the economy, not serve the political clientele of the party in power. Fifth, the admission requirements to an economic union must be strict and these requirements must be enforced. Sixth, capital market investors must always differentiate default risk within the country-members of a monetary union.     

LONG DARK SHADOWS OR INNOVATIVE SPIRITS? THE EFFECTS OF (SMOOTHING) BUSINESS CYCLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract It is argued that fiscal policy can play a part in preventing a possible downward spiral or be instrumental in achieving a higher long‐term path of growth. Never before has this argument been advanced as frequently as in the current economic crisis. However, the economic literature – an overview of which is given here – does not provide an unambiguous answer, either theoretically or empirically, to the question of the relationship between (the smoothing of) cyclical fluctuations and long‐term growth. In this context, two main contrasting explanatory paradigms can be identified: Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and the learning by doing hypothesis. Even if it were possible to identify the relationship more clearly on this basis, it is important not to lose sight of the problems associated with the real‐time assessment of the current economic situation, time lags and political economic incentives even in difficult times.     

Why avoiding ‘Japanification’ could be a massive task

• ? 'Japanification risk’ is back on the agenda in the context of a slowing world economy. Japan's struggle to drag its economy out of an entrenched deflationary cycle offers a cautionary tale for other economies such as the eurozone, demonstrating the enormity of the policy effort needed.
• ? Low inflation and low growth in Japan are linked to demographic and monetary factors, against which Japan has intensified policy efforts since 2011–12. Japan can claim some success in boosting workforce participation but productivity growth has stalled while monetary policy efforts have delivered limited gains.
• ? The eurozone has avoided some of the early policy errors made by Japan and taken a number of steps to tackle ‘Japanification’ risks. But productivity growth has flagged even more than Japan's in the 1990s, and parts of the eurozone still risk sliding into deflation if the global downturn worsens.
• ? The eurozone's policy options to fight ‘Japanification', particularly at the individual country level, are more limited than was the case in Japan. Further ‘heavy lifting’ by the ECB would be required – implying downside risks for the euro and bond yields staying low, if not compressing further.

     

PRODUCTIVITY IN PUBLIC SERVICES

Abstract.  This paper discusses issues arising in the measurement of productivity in public services. Compared to measuring productivity in the private sector difficulties arise because the output of public services is often unpriced and because some public services are consumed collectively. A key problem is measuring the full range of outputs and quality improvements delivered by public sector organizations that are valued by society. Without comprehensive measures of output, productivity statistics may be misleading. I outline methods used in the measurement of both private and public sector productivity and discuss the measurement of public sector productivity in practice. Finally I discuss studies that examine factors underlying productivity differences and productivity growth in public and private sector organizations. Public sector reforms and the use of pilot schemes in public sector organizations present opportunities for research to identify causal effects on productivity.