Leaders, self-confidence, and hubris: what's the difference?

Success can easily breed hubris. As leaders become more confident, their success can limit their learning because they develop repetitive patterns of filtering information based on past successes and discount information that does not agree with their patterns of success. It is important for leaders to stay grounded in reality and effective as their success grows. Humility, gratitude, and appreciation will avoid the overconfidence that leads to hubris. Building confidence in others is the mark of a great leader. Hubris is not.     

The linkages,persistence, asymmetry in the volatility,the price discovery and efficiency,and the effect of the US subprime mortgage financial crisis on the spot and the futures market’s returns: the case of India

This article examines the effects of persistence, asymmetry and the US subprime mortgage crisis on the volatility of the returns and also the price discovery, efficiency and the linkages and causality between the spot and futures volatility by using various classes of the ARCH and GARCH models, and through the Granger’s causality. We have used two indices: one for spot and the other for futures, for the daily data from 12 June 2000 to 30 September 2013 from Nifty stock indices. We have then tested for ARCH effects, and subsequently employed various models of the ARCH and GARCH conditional volatility. The GARCH(1,1) model is found to be significant, and it implies that the returns are not autocorrelated and have ‘short memory’. It supports the hypothesis of the efficiency of the markets. The negative ‘news’ has more significant effect on volatility, corroborating the ‘leverage impact’ in finance on market volatility. We have also tested the volatility spillover effects. The two methods we employed support the spillover effects and the causality is bidirectional. We also have used the dummy variable for the US subprime mortgage financial crisis and found that they are statistically significant. Indian stock market is thus integrated to the world stock markets.     

Neo-Patrimonialism,Rent-Seeking and Development: Going with the Grain?

This contribution summarises research conducted by the Africa Power and Politics Programme, which finds that contrary to standard policy advice, neo-patrimonial governance can under certain conditions be compatible with a growth-enhancing investment climate.     

Trade liberalization,intra-industry trade and the environment: competition mode and the order of firms’ moves

This paper explores the implications of trade liberalization by extending the intra-industry trade framework à la Fung and Maechler (J Int Trade Econ Dev 16(1):53–69, 2007) to the case of sequential move and taking the mode of firms’ competition into consideration as well. It is shown that the existing results obtained for the case of simultaneous price competition are robust in quantity competition and sequential move cases. Moreover, it studies the likelihood that the environmental effects of trade liberalization occur.

Pigou,Del Vecchio,and Sraffa: the 1955 International “Antonio Feltrinelli” Prize for the Economic and Social Sciences

In 1955, the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei awarded the inaugural International “Feltrinelli” Prize for the Economic and Social Sciences to Arthur Cecil Pigou. This paper considers Gustavo Del Vecchio's active role on the selection committee in recommending Pigou for the Feltrinelli Prize and the related correspondence between Pigou, Piero Sraffa, and Del Vecchio. One of the most significant discovery reported in this paper is Sraffa's contention, expressed in an unpublished letter to Del Vecchio, that Pigou had “never been honoured in proportion to his merits.”     

Institutionalism and the “Common Man” Through the Lens of Philip Klein: Business Cycles,the Public Sector,and Keynes’s Economics

This article reviews and assesses Philip Klein’s work on business cycles and macroeconomics, the public sector, and the economics of John Maynard Keynes. The article makes several findings. First, Klein built on the pioneering efforts of Wesley Mitchell to advance the development of cycle indicators and to outline an eclectic theory of cycles that remains useful for synthesizing a broad literature. Second, Klein’s essays on macroeconomics contain enduring discussions of the malleability of the “natural” rate of unemployment and the value of a behavioral approach to expectations. Third, he refocused the institutionalist attention on the public sector by introducing “higher efficiency” and other concepts to help explain how government policy plays a role in economic life. Fourth, Klein emphasized the role of fiscal policy in moderating business cycles. Fifth, his work points in the direction of today’s post-Keynesian institutionalism, both by stressing that Keynes was “profoundly institutionalist” in his approach and by arguing that conjoining Keynes and institutionalism would provide a stronger foundation for macroeconomic theory and policy.     

“Remembrance of things past”: Gordon Tullock,the man and the bioeconomist

My tribute paper on Gordon Tullock (1922–2014) provides some memorable stories of Tullock as a person and as a founder of bioeconomics. I include my speech, “Toast and roast: Gordon Tullock,” delivered on the occasion of Tullock’s 80th birthday; also the same “Toast and roast....,” written in the form of a poem, “Ode to Gordon Tullock.” I also discuss Tullock’s contributions to bioeconomics. In a concluding section, I recall a couple of my poignant memories of Gordon Tullock.     

Balance of payments,the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth: the European and North American experience, 1970–85

This paper examines the assoication between Canadian unions and their member' attitudes. Data on job satisfaction indicate that unionized workers in Canada are less happy with the quality of their jobs than non-union workers. The former, however, are more satisfied with their financial compensation and job security than non-members.     

Career Paths,Unemployment, and the Efficiency of the Labor Market: Should Youth Employment Be Subsidized?

This paper studies the implications of learning‐by‐doing on youth unemployment and market efficiency when workers benefiting from this kind of training experience search (while on the job) for a higher skill job. Firms with low‐skill jobs suffer from a poaching behavior by firms with high‐skill jobs, causing a shortage of low‐skill jobs and excessive youth unemployment. An optimal policy, consisting of taxing the output of high‐skill jobs and subsidizing the output of low‐skill jobs, restores market efficiency and reduces youth unemployment.     

Unconditional quantile regressions,wage growth and inequality in the Philippines, 2001–2006: the contribution of covariates

I implement a two-stage procedure to estimate the components of real wage change in the Philippines along the wage distribution from 2001 to 2006, as well as the contribution of individual covariates to each component. The methodology is based on Re-centred Influence Functions (RIF), as suggested by Firpo et al. (2009). The advantage of this methodology is that it not only decomposes the unconditional wage change at any quantile of the wage distribution, but also allows the characterization of the contribution of any single covariate on each component. I find that real earnings of males in the Philippines declined and the decline along the earnings distribution is generally higher at higher deciles for all males and higher at lower deciles in Manila. Decomposition results are driven by the wage structure component, while the composition effect is small and generally positive with education as the main contributor. Within the wage structure effect, the main determinants are associated with changes in the rewards of experience and occupation, along with residual change (change in intercepts).     

Entry and industry evolution: the UK car industry, 1958—83

This paper models entry and the subsequent changes in market structure in three segments of the UK car industry, 1958–83. The entry equation emerges from a dynamic optimization model which allows for the costs of acquiring market share. The model is used to explore the hypothesis that the market penetration of entrants in this industry was facilitated by a post-entry advertising war which the incumbent firms lost. The basic hypothesis under examination is that advertising both facilitates and restricts entry, but that it does so in a way that varies systematically over time. The data are consistent with this view, showing that high advertising shares readily translate into high market shares, but that the escalation of industry advertising caused by entry can make high advertising entry strategies increasingly costly over time.     

Latin American Development: What About the State,Conflict and Power?

Abstract:

Several authors have raised the similarities between Latin American structuralism and economic institutionalism, pointing out the possibilities of reciprocal enrichment between both approaches but highlighting, at the same time, the mutual ignorance between them. However, the eventual interaction between these theories was hampered by the advent of the neoclassical—and neoliberal—offensive, and the displacement of Latin American contributions, both in its structuralist and dependency variants. The replacement of these contributions by the neo-structuralist approach implied a displacement of the characteristics of original structuralism, associated with the conception of central-peripheral economies, and the central role of the state for Latin American development. These displacements, I argue, limited the possibility of finding the means to achieve the so-called social transformation, to which institutionalists and structuralists referred. The present article tries, on the one hand, to critically analyze the neo-structuralist discourse, evaluating how these displacements affect the possibility of proposing a structural transformation in Latin America (led by the state). On the other hand, it seeks to recover the dimensions associated with power, conflict and the centrality of the state to rethink the challenges of structural transformation, from which articulations between structuralism and institutionalism could be proposed.     

Politics, selection and the public interest: Besley’s benevolent despot

This paper is an assessment of Besley’s attempt to orchestrate a rapprochement between public choice theory and conventional public economics—with its characteristic normative orientation towards public policy. In this paper, I first try to set the Besley enterprise in the context of earlier work—focussing on my own work with Buchanan (The Power to Tax and The Reason of Rules). I then direct attention to three aspects of the Besley enterprise: whether selecting for competence depends on having solved the motivation problem (either by incentive or selection means), how selection mechanisms might be supported institutionally and the possibility that selection processes might create incentives at the ‘dispositional’ level.

Housing,consumption and monetary policy: how different are the first-, second- and third-tier cities in China?

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between house prices and the real economy in China’s first-, second- and third-tier cities. A Structural Vector Autoregression model is applied to study the impacts of monetary policy shocks and housing demand shocks on various housing markets across China. We also investigate the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The results reveal that in first-tier cities, raising interest rates has a stronger negative effect on house prices. Also, as house prices decrease in first-tier cities, private consumption declines sharply. There is a stronger role of housing markets in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in these cities. Our findings indicate that interest rate adjustment could effectively curb spikes in housing prices in the first-tier cities, but the impact of such adjustments on household consumption must also be considered.     

On science and reform: the parable of the new economics, 1960s–1970s

The article considers Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow, James Tobin, Walter Heller, and Arthur Okun qua political economists. The focus is on their combination of a faith in economic science and a passionate public spirit. The article aims to substantiate two related arguments. The first is that these “new economists” were public intellectuals, regularly addressing public opinion, and engaging with the major economic and social issues of the times; the second is that their value judgements gained the upper hand over scientific discourse when they were confronted with the 1970s inflation.