CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.     

Pitfalls in the use of foreign direct investment statistics

Foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics are widely used to study the impact of international capital movements and multinational enterprise (MNE) activities. FDI intensity is also an important indicator of globalisation and economic integration. Datasets spanning long time periods and with broad country coverage have been employed in numerous studies to analyse various aspects of the determinants and consequences of FDI. Focusing on a relatively homogeneous group of six Western European EU countries, the present study finds major inconsistencies in the construction and coverage of these data both through time and across countries, leading to large discrepancies. Asymmetries will be far greater for broader groups of more economically and institutionally diverse countries. This study recommends extreme caution in drawing conclusions based on FDI data.     

Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe

We examine the evolution of the external position in CEE countries over the past decade, with a strong emphasis on the composition of the international balance sheet. We assess the extent of their international financial integration, in comparison to the advanced economies and other emerging markets, and highlight the most salient features of their external capital structure in terms of the relative importance of FDI, portfolio equity, and external debt. In addition, we briefly describe the bilateral and currency composition of their external liabilities. Finally, we explore the implications of the accumulated stock of external liabilities for future trade and current account balances.     

Enlargement and the EU Periphery: Introduction

The CEEC share of Irish exports has grown fivefold since transition began, with export sales expanding in all sectors. Even at current income levels there remains scope for a further doubling of exports, and trade will grow even more substantially if accession facilitates the CEEC in converging more rapidly on EU living standards. Most analyses predict that the EU15 sectors that face the greatest threats of enlargement‐induced disruption are Food and Textiles, Clothing and Footwear. In the case of Irish Food Processing, however, the prognosis of the present paper is positive since Irish agricultural output differs quite strongly from that of the CEE economies. The adjustment costs associated with industrial dispution, furthermore, are highest in economies with rigid labour markets, whereas the flexibility of the Irish labour market seems to have improved substantially over the last decade or so. Outward FDI from Ireland has grown strongly over the Celtic Tiger era, and Irish multinational firms have been reasonably active in acquiring companies in their sectors in Cental and Eastern Europe. The main worry for Ireland is that the more successful accession states may divert FDI inflows away from Ireland. Micro‐level analysis of the conditions pertaining in some of Ireland's most important foreign‐dominated sectors – information technology, pharma‐chem and instrument engineering – suggests that these threats may be overstated. The leading CEE economies, rather than drawing FDI away from Ireland, may instead contribute to the further development of EU‐wide production networks, making the networks themselves more competitive as global players. The net cost to Ireland of agreements already reached on the financing of enlargement is quite manageable. The cost to Ireland would escalate dramatically, however, if costs and benefits were to be redistributed within the EU in line with current income levels, entailing a substantial transformation of the CAP transfer mechanism.     

Comparative Advantage and the Gains from Financial Trade: A Reappraisal

Emerging market crises have suggested that a national benefit‐cost assessment of external financial liberalisation could well prove unfavourable. This paper re‐examines the principle of comparative advantage in its application to financial trade to seek guidance on measures that might permit a fuller realisation of the potential benefits involved. Drawing a parallel with Balasubramanyam's work on the gains from FDI and international migration we distinguish between those arising in financial trade from the net transfer of capital, and those deriving from the contemporaneous exchange of financial claims or services of equivalent value. In the first interpretation a country's comparative advantage is manifested by its role in ‘intertemporal’ trade (as a borrower or lender). Our alternative emphasis is on the contractual risk‐return characteristics of the financial claims exchanged. This perspective is applied firstly to portfolio diversification gains arising from further international stock market integration. Secondly, price risk management for developing countries in international primary commodity trade is discussed. Both applications imply the need for significant institutional development but could realise approximately contemporaneous gains reminiscent both of those involved in merchandise trade and in the skills and product (or service) flows that Balasubramanyam has emphasised in relation to FDI and international migration.     

人力资本跨国流动与中国经济增长——基于外商直接投资视角的研究

跨国人力资本作为外商直接投资(FDI)技术外溢重要载体的观点已被众多文献所探讨,但其对东道国经济增长的作用很少被详细的研究过。本文首先通过一般均衡模型描述了多样化的跨国人力资本和有形资产对东道国经济增长的作用。为了检验理论模型关于经济变量间关系的预测,采用中国1992-2007年29个地区的面板数据考察跨国人力资本流动对于我国经济增长的作用。将跨国人力资本变量引入传统的经济增长回归模型中,并运用SYS-GMM计量方法测算它对经济增长的效应。结果表明,基于FDI的跨国人力资本流动与经济增长显著正相关,在控制其他因素如人口和制度变量后,这一结果仍然稳健有效。     

外商直接投资与发展中国家的人力资本发展

人力资本不仅仅影响一国内部经济增长,同时也和外部经济交往比如外商直接投资(FDI)存在互为补充的关系。FDI能够对东道国的人力资本发展起到重要作用,主要通过影响东道国的正规教育和在职培训提升东道国的人力资本水平;发展中国家要加大本国的教育投资;鼓励跨国公司的培训活动和实施吸引人才的制度;实现FDI、人力资本和技术外溢的良性循环。     

The Impact of EU Preferential Trade Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment

Although North–South preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are expected to affect foreign direct investment (FDI), there is not much evidence to date on the impact of EU PTAs on the pattern of FDI. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of EU PTAs on the outward stocks of FDI of the EU. We estimate a model based on the knowledge‐capital theory of the multinational enterprise over the period 1995–2005 using a sample of 173 host countries. Explanatory variables include measures of the level of bilateral protection and a dummy to capture the impact of deep integration provisions of PTAs. A dynamic panel model with fixed effects is used in order to take into account the dynamic behaviour of FDI and the heterogeneity bias. Results show that EU FDI is both horizontal and vertical. The level of EU protection affects FDI negatively, while the impact of the tariffs applied by host countries varies across groups of partner countries. Deep integration provisions affect EU FDI positively.     

农民工人力资本回报率差异：年龄与类型--基于城市农民工调查数据的实证分析

本文基于城市农民工调查数据,通过修正的Mincer收入方程,分析人力资本投资类型及年龄对农民工收入的影响。研究结果表明,职业培训的收入回报率高于受教育年限的收入回报率,职业培训对较年轻农民工群体收入的影响更为显著。促进农民工的人力资本投资,应首先唤醒农民工对基础义务教育的重视,激励企业加大对年轻农民工群体的职业培训投入,搭建更加多元化、开放化的职业培训平台,为农民工提高职业技能提供支持。     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

Word Power: The Impact of Negative Media Coverage on Disciplining Corporate Pollution

Globalization is multifaceted and involves the interaction among businesses, services, governments, and societies beyond national borders. As a result, the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI), international trade in goods and services, and the economic interdependence of the nations of the world have been increasing. At the same time, much attention has been paid to the effect of corruption prevalent within many cultures and societies, and its impact on the economies, especially developing economies. This paper examines the relationship between human capital investment, the level of national corruption, and the global economic integration (GEI) of a nation in developing countries. Based on the data collected from over 60 countries, and building on the FDI and human capital theories, it was found that human capital investment and corruption are related to GEI. It was also found that the level of corruption moderates the relationship between human capital investment and GEI of developing economies. The findings of the study can help to deepen our understanding of GEI and have practical implications for developing countries in terms developing human capital, which plays a critical role in today’s knowledge-based economy.     

SMEs,foreign direct investment and financial constraints: The case of Belgium

This paper explores the problems experienced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with international ambitions in gaining access to debt and equity finance for foreign direct investment (FDI) projects. We develop several arguments for why such small businesses are expected to face severe financing constraints for foreign investments and provide an explorative empirical study with both the demand and supply side of FDI finance. We have interviewed thirty-two Belgian SMEs that carry out FDI, five banks and five venture capitalists. Based on the SME discussions, we have composed a questionnaire that was sent to the interviewed SMEs. The information problems and lack of collateral that often characterize international investment, the home bias of financiers and the capital gearing method used by banks to evaluate small firms’ foreign projects give rise to financial constraints for SMEs’ FDI projects. The reported finance gap hinders small firms’ (international) development and leads to suboptimal home and FDI host country development.     

海外人力资本回流对FDI技术外部性的影响

本文将人力资本分为国外人力资本和国内人力资本,以中国为例,采用9个OECD国家的1980-2011年共210个观测值作对比,用定量分析方法探究不同人力资本对FDI技术溢出效应的影响,并得出结论：国内人力资本与国外人力资本皆对FDI技术吸收能力产生积极效应,且综合指标比分别的单独指标对FDI技术溢出效应产生更大的影响,海归型人才与非海归型人才相比对FDI技术溢出效应影响更大。     

A note on export-platform Foreign Direct Investment,training and absorptive capacity

The empirical literature on FDI suggests that investment in training is the major source of human resource development activities undertaken by MNEs, particularly those with sophisticated technologies, and host countries' absorptive capacity plays an important role in attracting FDI. We develop a model of export-platform FDI that provides theoretical rationalisation of the role played by a host country's absorptive capacity in determining MNEs' location decisions as well as their level of investment and training–and, through this, the extent to which they contribute to human capital formation in the host country.     

FDI、人力资本与省际工业能源效率

本文从技术吸收的角度出发,考察了人力资本通过外资企业对各省区工业能源使用效率的吸收效果。结果发现,整体上所有群体对外资的先进技术吸收效果并不显著,而当考虑不同教育人群的吸收能力时,发现初中和高中教育水平对外资总体的技术吸收能力较好。同时这两类人力资本对其他外资企业的技术吸收能力也较好,但由于港澳台外企的技术相对于其他外资比较落后,导致未受教育和小学教育水平人群也呈现出较好的吸收能力。     

Measuring financial market integration in the European Union: EU15 vs. New Member States

This paper quantifies financial market integration in the European Union, using a large array of credit and bond market indicators, stock market indicators, as well as indicators based on household and firm decisions. It focuses on comparing the evolution of the European Union before the Eastern enlargement (EU15) with that of the 12 New Member States (NMS) that joined after 2000. It documents improvements in the integration of the credit and bond markets as well as stock markets for both groups within the EU27, the heightened heterogeneity brought about by the NMS, but also a reversal of the integration process over the recent years (corresponding to the financial crisis), divergence disrupting both the EU15 core and the NMS. For all the decades of achievements within both the EU15 and NMS groups in terms of credit and stock market integration, the ultimate goals of financial market integration, perfect capital mobility and full international risk sharing remain out of reach.     

Das Wissenskapital der Nationen: gute Bildung als Wachstumsmotor

The long run prosperity of nations is directly related to the skills of their population. The relevant cognitive skills — the “knowledge capital” of a nation — can be measured well by international math and science tests. The consideration of knowledge capital can completely account for the Latin American growth puzzle and the East Asian growth miracle. Several analyses suggest that the relationship depicts a causal effect of skills. According to the evidence, an understanding of long run growth ultimately has to rest on the knowledge capital of nations. To further long run prosperity, policies should focus on education. Effective education systems align incentives with achievement through better educational practices such as external exams, school autonomy, choice and competition.     

Economic and Political Determinants of the Effects of FDI on Growth in Transition and Developing Countries

This study investigates the role of human capital and political development in determining the magnitude of the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth for a panel of 61 transition and developing countries for the period 1989 to 2013. A baseline growth model incorporating these variables is tested and then extended to include FDI interaction effects with human capital (measured using secondary school enrollment data) and political development (based on Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index scores). These growth interaction effects between FDI and human capital vary according to regime type. Political development in conjunction with FDI appears to suppress the effects of FDI on growth in authoritarian countries while enhancing them in hybrid democracies. For more democratic countries, domestic investment is a more important driver of growth. The effects of FDI on growth in the ten transition economies included in the sample data set are found to be insignificant. Although this result might seem to differ from a priori expectations, it is in line with the findings of most earlier studies that cover the period up to 2004. The paper also provides no strong evidence that a critical threshold of human capital is required to generate beneficial spillover growth effects from inflows of FDI. The paper provides new and more detailed insights into the effects of FDI on growth with particular respect to human capital and political regime covering a large number of transition and developing countries based on an up‐to‐date data set covering a 25‐year period to 2013. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

承接服务业国际转移:中国区位比较优势的实证

服务业离岸外移是当前国际产业转移的重要内容,抓住机遇承接服务业国际转移,提升自身的产业结构对于包括中国在内的发展中国家具有十分重要的战略意义。本文在回顾相关文献研究成果的基础上,利用面板数据模型对对华服务业直接投资的主要区位影响因素进行了实证研究,结果显示人均国内生产总值和人力资本存量是影响中国吸引服务业直接投资的重要区位因素。     

对高职国贸专业教学改革的思考——以安徽商贸职业技术学院为例

目前高职院校国际贸易专业的人才培养模式和课程设置大多沿袭了大学本科的内容,不能体现高等职业教育的特色,培养出来的学生高不成、低不就。随着高职发展进入成长期,加强高职教学改革,完善高职人才培养模式十分必要。高职院校要转变教育观念,创新人才培养模式,调整国际贸易专业培养目标,改革国际贸易专业课程体系,建立与专业培养目标相适应的实践教学体系,加强校企合作,形成符合高职教育特点的国际贸易人才培养新方案。