Dairy food consumption,supply, and policy in Japan

We investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We then describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.     

An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market

This paper develops an economic analysis of the impacts of further trade liberalization scenarios on Asian dairy markets, using a world dairy model incorporating both vertical and spatial characteristics of the world dairy sector. Japan and Korea’ producers will suffer much bigger losses from trade liberalization than other countries in the region; Japan and Korea’s producers get much more protection from trade distortions than from domestic subsidy. India is a potential competitive exporter if Asia is liberalized. China and India are potential competitive exporters under global free trade. South East Asia and other South Asian countries remain importers under free trade. Greater trade liberalization around the world increases exports for potential exporters and/or ease importing pressure for potential importers. The increasing order of competitiveness of Asian dairy economies sectors is found to be Japan, Korea, South East Asia, other South Asia, China and India. China and India consumers would lose from world trade liberalization, but the other countries’ consumer surplus will increase.     

The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics,income, and prices

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s (1988) [Heien, D.M., Wessells, C., 1988. The demand for dairy products: structure, prediction, and decomposition. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70, 219-28] technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.     

Competitiveness and trade potential of India’s dairy industry

India has become the world’s largest milk producer but its dairy industry lacks market access. This paper determines how world dairy policy reforms would affect dairy production and trade in India and the competitiveness of its dairy industry. We measure nominal protection coefficient for India’s dairy products to determine level and change in competitiveness between 1975 and 2001. We estimate parameters of domestic demand for and supply of raw milk and whole milk powder to determine how a world price increase would affect domestic milk production and whole milk powder exports. Results show that India’s dairy products lack export competitiveness. But with less distorted world dairy markets, India could be competitive and would emerge as a net exporter of whole milk powder, benefiting dairy industries and milk producers in India.     

Trade Intensities with Asian Countries: Comparing Australia, Canada and Sweden

In recent years, Canadian government officials have been under increasing pressure to promote increased Canadian economic integration with fast growing Asian economies, especially Southeast Asia. While the Canadian government has become more active in promoting trade with Asia through government-sponsored trade missions and the like, there has been little research documenting the underlying causes of Canada's limited trade and investment ties to the region. This study provides some empirical evidence that Canada's trade performance with Asian countries is consistent with Canada's underlying pattern of comparative advantage. The main policy implication is that a more aggressive pursuit of freer trade and investment regimes with Asian countries might be the most promising instrument for promoting increased exports and outward direct investment to the region.     

垂直合约与产业环境贸易政策——环境成本内部化及中国的策略选择

全球经济一体化背景下,发达国家利用环境贸易政策来实现竞争优势已经出现趋势。本文介绍了欧盟的环境贸易政策,基于环境贸易政策的背景,预设国内外上、下游企业之间已经构成一个产业链,应用Stephen F.Hamilton的垂直型结构模型,将数量竞争分为四种不同情况,给出了最大均衡供给量。分析表明,如果采用垂直合约,则数量竞争和价格竞争的最佳非合作环境政策均是庇古(Pigouvian)税。在国内下游出口商与上游进口品供应商能够达成合约的条件下,政府之间存在着非合作环境政策。因此,我国的产业环境贸易政策应当是努力实现环境成本的内部化。     

Evaluating the effectiveness of inter-regional trade and storage in Malawi’s private sector maize markets

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the private sector maize marketing system in Malawi using threshold autoregression models. Two dimensions of maize market performance are evaluated: (1) inter-regional trade and spatial price transmission; and (2) storage and seasonal price relationships. In both cases, threshold autoregression models which account for nonlinearities predicted by economic theory are applied. Results indicate that spatial price transmission and seasonal price patterns in private sector maize markets in Malawi are generally consistent with long-run competitive inter-regional trade and storage behavior, and that in most cases shocks to long-run equilibrium are arbitraged away quickly. This suggests the private sector in Malawi is generally doing a good job of transporting maize from surplus to deficit regions and smoothing maize consumption between harvests.     

Demand for dairy products in the EU

In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.     

Westernization of Asian diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy

Rapid economic and income growth, urbanization, and globalization are leading to a dramatic shift of Asian diets away from staples and increasingly towards livestock and dairy products, vegetables and fruit, and fats and oils. While the diversification of diets away from the traditional dominance of rice with rising incomes is expected and observed, current food consumption patterns are showing signs of convergence towards a Western diet. The diet transition is characterized by increased consumption of: wheat; temperate fruit and vegetables and high protein and energy dense food. Globalization and the consequent global interconnectedness of the urban middle class, is the driving force behind the convergence of diets. The rapid spread of global supermarket chains and fast food restaurants is reinforcing the above trends.     

Consequences of further opening of the Korean dairy market

This paper develops a simulation of Korean dairy policy that is tailored to the data, institutions, and policies in South Korea. It compares potential effects of changes in trade and domestic policy to baseline projections to 2015. Beverage milk continues to be supplied from domestic sources, implying imports compete in the manufacture of tradable products. We model manufactured dairy product supply, demand, and trade on a milk fat and non-fat-solid component basis reflecting product fungibility over the 10-year horizon used for our trade policy analysis. We find that if the domestic price support is removed with no change in trade policy, the market price of raw milk falls by about 2% and raw milk production declines by 4.5%. Under substantial tariff cuts of 30–40% with no effective change in domestic dairy policy, Korean fat and non-fat-solid prices fall by 7% and 11%, fat and non-fat-solid imports rise by 9% and 7% and Korea raw milk production falls by about 2% relative to the baseline. Prices of Korean farmer-owned dairy inputs, labor, and capital fall by about 1%.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

How far down the path to free trade? The importance of rice price stabilization in developing Asia

International trade agreements are pushing the world in the direction of free trade. But price stabilization, which is inconsistent with completely free trade, remains important in developing Asia because of the large share of rice in economic output. A policy of pure price stabilization for rice, without consistent protection (either subsidization or taxation), can help to create the macroeconomic stability that is essential for sustained rapid economic growth by increasing the quantity and efficiency of investment throughout the economy. Pure price stabilization can also generate significant equity gains by protecting poor consumers and farmers from sharp fluctuations in prices. While domestic commodity price stabilization schemes have a checkered history around the world, the experience of Asian countries in stabilizing rice prices offers more scope for optimism. Asian governments have been generally successful in stabilizing rice prices, and there are several instances where this has been accomplished without sustained protection of either consumers or farmers. However, there is room for improved stabilization mechanisms that would lower the costs of intervention.     

The food security challenge for southern Africa

This paper considers food security aims and instruments against a background of changed circumstances internationally and regionally. The international changes discussed are: a sharper focus on achieving macro-economic stabilization, which inter alia has led to closer scrutiny of what the public sector should be financing, and a decline in funding for agriculture; a reduced role for governments in commercial-type activities; the shift towards greater integration of world markets; and changing prospects for international aid flows. Regionally, southern Africa is moving away from a past of conflict and inward-looking economies, towards greater cooperation and trade, and less interventionist economic management.The commendable SADC food security strategy paper of June 1997 is considered, and its implications drawn out. The main messages are that (a) household food insecurity results from poverty, (b) national food insecurity results from faltering development and weak external trade performance, and (c) future strategies must therefore lie with greater efficiency in the use of resources and with patterns of development which are most effective in creating employment and incomes. Arguably there is therefore no case for a food security agenda that is separate from broad-based development aimed at poverty alleviation. This understanding of food security is at variance with some of the policies and development programmes in the region. Promotion of self-sufficiency in grains, specific food-security instruments, and controls over and interventions in markets may all be counter to improving food security for the region if they hinder policy and institutional reforms called for by the wider development agenda.The main roles for governments in promoting food security are discussed in terms of creating an enabling environment for development, correcting for market failures, and targeted measures to achieve social objectives. Food security needs both an urban and a rural focus, and involves all economic sectors. For rural areas, governments' roles may usefully be defined in terms of supporting household strategies aimed at raising and stabilizing incomes through livelihood diversification, intensification of farming, and migration.Two priority policy areas which are central to achieving food security objectives are discussed at some length: trade policy and the promotion of smallholder farming. The roles of government in these areas are discussed in the light of economic theory and past experiences in the region. A vision for a future trade regime is outlined, and strategic interventions by governments are identified. The challenge for governments in supporting smallholder farming is, first, to define with greater rigour than in the past the priority uses for public funds, and, second, to find much more efficient ways of delivering services than in the past. It will otherwise be difficult to make a case for reversing the decline in public funding for the sector.The paper ends with brief discussions of the roles for aid and for SADC in promoting food security, and with a question of whether a new initiative is needed to strengthen trade policy skills in the region.     

Food policy research for improving the reform of agricultural input and output markets in Central Asia

Agriculture is a significant component of the Central Asian economies. Since independence, the republics have implemented agricultural reforms in varying measure, yet production has fallen sharply across the region. The more ambitious agricultural reform programs have included measures aimed at liberalizing agricultural marketing, trade and prices. However, so far the expected supply response has yet to emerge. The objective of this paper is to highlight key policy and research issues surrounding reform of agricultural markets. It summarizes the main features of agricultural performance since the reforms, highlighting trends in grain and cotton, livestock, input use, and trade and analyzes key constraints to improvement of the sector, emphasizing price policy, sequencing problems, and institutional weakness. It presents a research agenda by identifying the main research needs for better agricultural policy design. It calls for more research on input and output market efficiency, private sector development, the effects of reform on farmers, sequencing issues, comparative advantage, water management, land tenure and farm size.     

Immigration,Labour Markets and Employment Relations: Problems and Prospects

In this review essay, I argue that immigration presents employment researchers with a promising strategic research site because it raises a number of theoretically significant problems with mainstream economic approaches to labour and labour markets. Despite the tendency to view economic migrants as homo economicus personified, I argue that immigration brings the institutional nature of labour markets into sharp relief as it exposes, among other things, the influence of the state, processes of labour market segmentation, and the role of trade union policy and practice. Having identified a number of empirical anomalies that contradict neoclassical economic theory, I proceed to sketch out three areas where a more institutionally oriented approach should prove more fruitful.     

Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?

Rapidly expanding global trade in the past three decades has lifted millions out of people out of poverty. Trade has also reduced manufacturing wages in high income countries and made entire industries uncompetitive in some communities, giving rise to nationalist politics that seek to stop or reverse further trade expansion in the United States and Europe. Given complex and uncertain political support for trade, how might changes in trade policy affect the global food system’s ability to adapt to climate change? Here we argue that we can best understand food security in a changing climate as a double exposure: the exposure of people and processes to both economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade can help us adapt to climate change, or not. If trade restrictions proliferate, double exposure to both a rapidly changing climate and volatile markets will likely jeopardize the food security of millions. A changing climate will present both opportunities and challenges for the global food system, and adapting to its many impacts will affect food availability, food access, food utilization and food security stability for the poorest people across the world. Global trade can continue to play a central role in assuring that global food system adapts to a changing climate. This potential will only be realized, however, if trade is managed in ways that maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets while minimizing the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, for example, enhanced transportation networks combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets could reduce the impact of ‘double exposure’ on food security.     

The Politics of Social Pacts

The paper develops an analytical framework for the politics of negotiated voluntary wage restraint in the context of social pacts. It argues that, in contrast to earlier political exchanges, tripartite negotiations on wage restraint under restrictive economic policies are not based on a political exchange whereby governments had to compensate trade unions for wage restraint. Rather, governments can threaten trade unions with tight monetary policy and trade unions can either engage in negotiated adjustment or suffer restrictions. Social pacts are therefore an instrument of adjustment by governments to a new economic environment, and not a tool of economic policy.     

Food self-sufficiency: Making sense of it,and when it makes sense

Food self-sufficiency gained increased attention in a number of countries in the wake of the 2007–08 international food crisis, as countries sought to buffer themselves from volatility on world food markets. Food self-sufficiency is often presented in policy circles as the direct opposite of international trade in food, and is widely critiqued by economists as a misguided approach to food security that places political priorities ahead of economic efficiency. This paper takes a closer look at the concept of food self-sufficiency and makes the case that policy choice on this issue is far from a straightforward binary choice between the extremes of relying solely on homegrown food and a fully open trade policy for foodstuffs. It shows that in practice, food self-sufficiency is defined and measured in a number of different ways, and argues that a broader understanding of the concept opens up space for considering food self-sufficiency policy in relative terms, rather than as an either/or policy choice. Conceptualizing food self-sufficiency along a continuum may help to move the debate in a more productive direction, allowing for greater consideration of instances when the pursuit of policies to increase domestic food production may make sense both politically and economically.     

标准在企业走向国际市场中的作用

阐述了标准在企业生产经营活动中的作用，通过对国际标准、WTO、WTO/TBT协议的情况介绍，分析了标准对于开展国际贸易的重要性，明确了国际标准是WTO协议的技术基础，是消除贸易技术壁垒的有效手段；明晰了标准在企业走向国际市场中的作用即在新的经济形势下，标准不仅一如既往的在企业的生产和经营中发挥着重要的作用，而且在企业走向国际市场的过程中，又架起了通向国际市场的桥梁。     

Policy Uncertainty,Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts,Many Questions

Review of Industrial Organization - This paper attempts to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty on overall trade and trade linked to global value chains. Using new data on policy...