Agricultural policy reforms and food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

This paper provides an overview of agricultural policy reforms and their impact on food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Owing to increasing hostility in regional trade among the countries of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, like their neighbors, have chosen to follow a path of food self-sufficiency, which has biased their agricultural systems towards grain production. The paper finds that the land reforms in these two countries, which have dismantled the state farms, have resulted in reduced productivity of crops and declining food availability at the household level. It argues that reversing this trend will require increased investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research to improve crop yields, and in the short-term, food security interventions to protect the poor and vulnerable.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

What explains gender differences in food insecurity?

There is a rich literature devoted to the role women play in ensuring the food security of the household and other household members. However, relatively little attention has been paid to their own food security situation. The challenge with investigating the food security of women is that most surveys collect food security data at the household level making inferences about individual-level food security difficult. Using a large international sample of individual-level data and the first global experiential measure of food insecurity, I show that women have a higher probability of being food insecure relative to men. The magnitude of the gender gap in food insecurity varies across regions and varies by the severity level of food insecurity. In the developed countries of the European Union, women are 4.7 percentage points more likely than men to experience some form of food insecurity. In the poor countries of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, women are two percentage points more likely than men to be severely food insecure. Using a modification of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, I find that gender differences in household income, educational attainment, and social networks explain the majority of the gender gap in food insecurity. However, in some regions, namely South Asia and Australia/New Zealand, gender differences in observable characteristics fail to account for gender differences in food insecurity. This analysis suggests that policies that address gender inequality in employment opportunities and educational attainment may also impact food insecurity.     

Women’s empowerment and gender equity in agriculture: A different perspective from Southeast Asia

Women’s empowerment is considered a ‘prerequisite’ to achieving global food security. Gender systems, however, are diverse and complex. The nature and extent of gender inequity and the conditions necessary to empower women vary across countries, communities and regions. The study of different gender systems is thus fundamental to capture cross-cultural variations in gender specific needs and constraints to effectively address gender gaps. Although the status of women in agriculture has received extensive attention in the literature in recent decades, a research gap persists regarding the state of gender inequity in Southeast Asian agriculture. The current paper contributes to the geographical scope of the literature by presenting empirical evidence of gender inequity from four Southeast Asian countries: Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Using the framework recommended by the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), 37 focus group discussions were conducted with 290 women farmers in the above mentioned countries. The results reveal trends that contradict the conventional narratives of gender inequity in agriculture in certain domains of empowerment. In all four countries, women appear to have equal access to productive resources such as land and inputs, and greater control over household income than men. Important intra-regional heterogeneity is observed in terms of community-level empowerment. While women play an active role in agricultural groups in Thailand and in the Philippines, this is predominantly men’s territory in Indonesia and Myanmar. These findings imply that country-specific gender intervention frameworks are necessary to overcome gender gaps in agriculture.     

Prospects for food demand and supply in Central Asia

Central Asia has experienced massive economic and social shocks during the past decade following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union. Demand for cereals, particularly for staple cereals and meats, has fallen significantly even as production and productivity have plummeted. Although agricultural reforms were launched in 1991, the performance of the agricultural sector has been weak across the region. Prospects for food security in Central Asia appear mixed. Projections indicate that a growing and urbanizing population in Central Asia with rising incomes will increase demand for cereals by 32% between 1995 and 2020 to reach 24 million tons, and for meat by 47% to reach 2.9 million tons. Improvements in crop productivity will be essential to meet the increases in demand projected for the region. Cereal production is forecast to keep pace with demand such that Central Asia will be virtually self-sufficient in cereals. However, national food self-sufficiency or food security does not necessarily translate into household or individual food security. Moreover, self-sufficiency comes with a high price-tag of opportunities foregone and inappropriate use made of resources. Given the growing enthusiasm for food self-sufficiency in Central Asia, it is imperative that research be undertaken to assess the full costs and benefits of such a policy.     

Food policy reforms for sustainable agricultural development in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan

Given the present conditions of demographic growth and the complicated transition toward market economies in Central Asia, the problems of food security and designing policies to achieve it without compromising economic growth are at the forefront of policy agendas in these countries. This paper reviews food policy reforms in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan in the context of sustainable agricultural development. Analyzing the trends in the agricultural sector during the transition period, it identifies the major impacts of policy reforms on food security and enumerates future challenges for improving food security in these countries. It finds that despite the progress made in reforming their economies toward market-oriented ones, the three countries continue to face food insecurity to varying degrees. It concludes that there is an urgent need to further expand and deepen the reform process by enabling functioning land, labor, and financial markets.     

Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.     

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector

In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture's share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.     

Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation.     

The impact of a food security program on household food consumption in Northwestern Ethiopia: A matching estimator approach

With the financial support from various development partners, Ethiopia has designed and implemented several programs to improve household food security. Yet, food insecurity is still a major challenge to several millions of people in the country and it is questionable whether the different food security programs implemented over the past years have been successful. Using a propensity score matching method to control for pre-intervention differences, this study examined the impact on household food calorie intake of an integrated food security program (IFSP), which had been implemented in Northwestern Ethiopia by two non-governmental organizations as a case study. The estimated results provide evidence that IFSP has a positive and statistically significant effect on food calorie intake. In particular, IFSP has raised physical food calorie intake by 30% among the beneficiary households. However, we also found that IFSP has differential impact depending on family size, landownership and gender of head of household. Overall, the paper provides evidence that supporting integrated food security programs is important to improve food security in rural areas.     

Population density,migration, and the returns to human capital and land: Insights from Indonesia

Rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare. To understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting, we examine the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes using panel data from Indonesia, combined with district-level demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and non-farm diversification, with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary Indonesia we find that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure. The effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high (above junior high school), while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density. The paper concludes with some potential lessons for African countries from Indonesia’s more successful rural development experiences.     

Land consolidation,specialization and household diets: Evidence from Rwanda

Despite rapid population growth, increasing land pressure and urbanization, farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have not intensified their production in a sustainable manner and farming systems remain predominantly subsistence-oriented. In response, developing country governments increasingly implement programs that promote crop intensification and more commercially-oriented agricultural systems. Rwanda’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP), launched in 2007, is one such example. However, despite its apparent success in raising production of several priority crops, there are legitimate concerns about the food and nutrition security implications for households that are encouraged to consolidate their land, specialize in their production, and increasingly rely on markets for their food needs. Using recent household survey data and a propensity score matching difference-in-differences method, we find that participation in land consolidation activities had ambiguous consumption effects: it positively impacted on consumption of roots and tubers, but had a negative effect on meat, fish and fruits consumption and the potential availability of vitamin B12 in participants’ diets. This calls for a review of CIP implementation practices to enhance the program’s food and nutrition security outcomes, with improvements in market functioning and market access being potential starting points.     

Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments: How much leeway do West African nations have?

The 2008 food crisis has challenged the political legitimacy and economic efficiency of the liberalization of international agricultural trade. An alternative vision defended by the food sovereignty movement is that long-term food security cannot rely on dependency on food imports, but must be built on the development of domestic production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading.The purpose of this paper is to look into whether the West African nations can achieve food sovereignty given their various trade commitments and other external constraints. The particularity of our approach is to combine a historical economic analysis with a political approach to food sovereignty and trade commitments.Our results suggest that external brakes on the development of food sovereignty policies are marginal, as the countries still have unused room for manoeuvre to protect their smallholder agriculture under the terms of draft World Trade Organization agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements and under the international financial institutions’ recommendations. Rather the international environment seems to be instrumented by West African states that do not manage to secure a national political consensus to drive structural reforms deemed vital and further the food security of the urban populations over the marginalized rural populations. Recently, the regional integration process has made headway with a common agricultural support and protection policy project that could herald an internal political balance more conducive to food-producing agriculture.     

Improving developing country food security through aquaculture development—lessons from Asia

This paper provides a framework for examining aquaculture’s linkages to food and nutritional security by elucidating key hypotheses concerning the role of aquaculture in household food and income systems in developing countries. Taking examples from developing Asia, where aquaculture showed a steady growth over the last decade, the implications of aquaculture development are examined from the standpoint of its impact on employment, income and consumption. Analysis revealed clear evidence of positive income and consumption effects of aquaculture on households. However, employment effects are still not significant. The context of targeting small-scale and subsistence-oriented farmers as a means of improving food security in the developing countries has also been analyzed by identifying key socio-economic and policy factors affecting aquaculture adoption and its impact on the poor. The paper concludes that national policies for aquaculture development will need to concurrently address the food security and poverty questions more sharply than has been done at present, by providing institutional and infrastructure support for access to resources such as land and water and to markets by poor households. Finally, more empirical evidence should be collected on the varied opportunities aquaculture would provide to improve the income, employment and food consumption levels within households.     

Addressing food security in Africa via multiple livelihood strategies of women farmers

Because food insecurity is primarily a problem of low household incomes and poverty, and not just inadequate food production, projects and programs for food insecure African farmers which aim at increasing production of subsistence crops may be ineffective. Instead, government should look for ways to improve returns to farmers' resources in a broader context, which may include expanded opportunities for non-farm microenterprises and agricultural labor. This has been the conventional wisdom since the writings of Amartya Sen. Still unclear, however, are the implications of his thinking for the roles of African women farmers who are traditionally the food-crop producers in Africa and are often food insecure. Immediate expansion of income-earning activities such as cash cropping and non-farm microenterprises may not be possible for women in male headed households in many African societies where cash income is seen as part of the male domain. In addition, women farmers may need a long adjustment period to diversify their income sources fully because most African countries are at the early stages of structural transformation. Different developmental interventions, both in policy and in technology, are therefore needed to address food security and economic transformations in Africa in the short and long term.     

The food security challenge for southern Africa

This paper considers food security aims and instruments against a background of changed circumstances internationally and regionally. The international changes discussed are: a sharper focus on achieving macro-economic stabilization, which inter alia has led to closer scrutiny of what the public sector should be financing, and a decline in funding for agriculture; a reduced role for governments in commercial-type activities; the shift towards greater integration of world markets; and changing prospects for international aid flows. Regionally, southern Africa is moving away from a past of conflict and inward-looking economies, towards greater cooperation and trade, and less interventionist economic management.The commendable SADC food security strategy paper of June 1997 is considered, and its implications drawn out. The main messages are that (a) household food insecurity results from poverty, (b) national food insecurity results from faltering development and weak external trade performance, and (c) future strategies must therefore lie with greater efficiency in the use of resources and with patterns of development which are most effective in creating employment and incomes. Arguably there is therefore no case for a food security agenda that is separate from broad-based development aimed at poverty alleviation. This understanding of food security is at variance with some of the policies and development programmes in the region. Promotion of self-sufficiency in grains, specific food-security instruments, and controls over and interventions in markets may all be counter to improving food security for the region if they hinder policy and institutional reforms called for by the wider development agenda.The main roles for governments in promoting food security are discussed in terms of creating an enabling environment for development, correcting for market failures, and targeted measures to achieve social objectives. Food security needs both an urban and a rural focus, and involves all economic sectors. For rural areas, governments' roles may usefully be defined in terms of supporting household strategies aimed at raising and stabilizing incomes through livelihood diversification, intensification of farming, and migration.Two priority policy areas which are central to achieving food security objectives are discussed at some length: trade policy and the promotion of smallholder farming. The roles of government in these areas are discussed in the light of economic theory and past experiences in the region. A vision for a future trade regime is outlined, and strategic interventions by governments are identified. The challenge for governments in supporting smallholder farming is, first, to define with greater rigour than in the past the priority uses for public funds, and, second, to find much more efficient ways of delivering services than in the past. It will otherwise be difficult to make a case for reversing the decline in public funding for the sector.The paper ends with brief discussions of the roles for aid and for SADC in promoting food security, and with a question of whether a new initiative is needed to strengthen trade policy skills in the region.     

Food insecurity,poverty and the Malawian Starter Pack: Fresh start or false start?

Chronic food insecurity and chronic poverty are closely related in Malawi. Since independence in 1964 national food security has been a key policy objective. However, until the 1990s less emphasis was placed on the household dimensions of food security and its links with chronic poverty. In the last decade a number of initiatives have been used in Malawi to tackle the issue of household food insecurity. One of the most controversial has been the Starter Pack programme launched in 1998. Initially consisting of a free handout of packs of improved maize seed, legumes and fertiliser to every small holder farm household in Malawi the scheme, under donor pressure, was subsequently scaled down to become a form of targeted social safety net programme. This paper analyses the strengths and weakness of both the original programme and its scaled down version and assesses the reason for the considerable opposition to the programme from Malawi’s donor community. Although Starter Pack is no longer operative in Malawi the Malawian experience is used to derive lessons for other countries where household food insecurity is an important dimension of chronic poverty.     

Trends in feed, livestock production, and rangelands during the transition period in three Central Asian countries

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the republics of Central Asia began to restructure their agricultural sectors to achieve food security and to adjust to the requirements of a market economy. Although they encountered many common challenges, their agricultural policies differed significantly. For this reason, it is important to see the results of these policies and to learn lessons from them. This paper discusses the role of and the challenges facing rangelands and livestock production systems in achieving food security among the pastoral communities of Central Asia. It analyzes the trends in livestock development during the economic transition in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, and derives policy directions for the sustainable use of rangelands and for the growth of the livestock sector in Central Asia.     

Can mobile phones improve gender equality and nutrition? Panel data evidence from farm households in Uganda

Since 2000, mobile phone technologies have been widely adopted in many developing countries. Existing research shows that use of mobile phones has improved smallholder farmers’ market access and income. Beyond income, mobile phones can possibly affect other dimensions of social welfare, such as gender equality and nutrition. Such broader social welfare effects have hardly been analyzed up till now. Here, we address this research gap, using panel data from smallholder farm households in Uganda. Regression results show that mobile phone use is positively associated with household income, women empowerment, food security, and dietary quality. These results also hold after controlling for possible confounding factors. In addition to the household-level analysis, we also look at who within the household actually uses mobile phones. Gender-disaggregation suggests that female mobile phone use has stronger positive associations with social welfare than if males alone use mobile phones. We cautiously conclude that equal access to mobile phones cannot only foster economic development, but can also contribute to gender equality, food security, and broader social development. Further research is required to corroborate the findings and analyze the underlying causal mechanisms.