城镇建设资金运作与改革

我国城镇基础设施建设资金严重不足 ,根本原因是城镇建设资金运作有悖于公共财政原理。本文结合公共产品理论 ,提出城镇建设产品的各类资金运作模式。     

A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty

This paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the U.K. We estimate a suite of monetary-policy models that include both forward- and backward-looking representations as well as large- and small-scale models. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty. For the most part, backward-looking models are highly fault tolerant with respect to policies optimized for forward-looking representations, while forward-looking models have low fault tolerance with respect to policies optimized for backward-looking representations. In addition, backward-looking models often have lower posterior probabilities than forward-looking models. Bayesian policies therefore have characteristics suitable for inflation and output stabilization in forward-looking models.     

The analysis of risk perception with fuzzy means-end approach

Visitors’ risk perceptions have been found to influence the on-site behavior of tourists and their intention to return to a destination or to recommend it to others. This study discusses how the uses of a means-end approach with fuzzy conceptualization in eliciting the perception of tourism risks in a better understanding of the visitors’ perceptual orientation toward the tourism values. We provide a hierarchy value map that fuses the attribute–consequence–value (A–C–V) and fuzzy linguistics to effectively and efficiently understand vacation risks and risk characteristics. Fuzzy logic is also adopted to deal with the ill-defined nature of the tourist linguistic judgments required in the proposed means-end chain. This research findings suggest that additionally to managing the most likely risks, tourist resorts should be prepared to cope with worst case scenarios such as “Thunderstorm”, “Bus accident”, “Food poisoning” and “Cable car accident”. From an overall risk perceptive, tourists are most concerned with dominant perceptual orientation of risk delivers being “Bus accident” → “Decrease of trust in the safety management as a result of the event of damage” → “Anger”.     

Solving the incomplete market model with aggregate uncertainty using a perturbation method

We use a perturbation method to solve the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty described in den Haan et al. [Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents: incomplete markets and model uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, this issue]. To apply that method, we use a “barrier method” to replace the original problem with occasionally binding inequality constraints by one with only equality constraints. We replace the structure with a continuum of agents by a setting in which a single infinitesimal agent faces prices generated by a representative-agent economy. We also solve a model variant with a large (but finite) number of agents. Our perturbation-based method is much simpler and faster than other methods.     

A dynamic programming approach to work force scheduling with time-dependent performance measures

An implicit enumeration algorithm is defined to obtain solutions to the commercial bank check processing encoder scheduling problem. The specific application is of particular interest because a significant factor in determining optimality is the float costs associated with checks which are unprocessed and unavailable for presentation at check clearing deadlines, thereby making the timing of the activity of crucial importance. A one day time horizon is employed to reflect those situations where banks have the scheduling flexibility afforded by part-time and/or temporary help in additon to a complement of full-time operators. Comparisons are made with other suggested approaches to daily encoder scheduling. Results indicate that dynamic programming can be an attractive methodology to attack this complex problem.     

Rank-ordering of risk preferences with conventional and discrete measures

When the functional form of utility is unknown, conventional measures of risk aversion are often approximated by applying a Taylor series expansion to expected utility. This is shown to produce counterintuitive rank-orderings of risk preferences for individuals who are willing to pay equal reservation prices in lotteries with different prizes. Moreover, individuals who are unwilling to participate in favorable lotteries may be incorrectly identified as having a finite aversion to risk. Correct orderings are obtained by applying a discrete measure of relative risk aversion. The contrast between the conventional and discrete measures is illustrated with data from three Dutch surveys.     

The power of using video data

Most data for qualitative research studies in the management field are collected through observations and interviews. Written words and photographs are too static to accurately portray the depth of the given event or interview. We advocate the application of video data. The advantages of video data are its ability to capture the interaction of the participant with the environment, capturing of nonverbal cues, and establishing a permanent record. We recommend the use of Patten’s (Qualitative Evaluation and Research Methods, Sage, Newborn, 1990) process of analysis as a basis for an analytical procedure. To code video data research, software such as Vivo or ATLAS.ti can be used. The four standards to examine the validity and reliability of qualitative research studies (credibility, transferability, dependability and conformability) should also apply to video data analysis. The only outcome and true goal for the use of video data in management research can only be the provision of richer knowledge for academic development.     

A system maintenance approach to analyzing the Italian judicial system reform proposal of 2010

In this paper, we analyze the Italian reform of the judicial system proposed in 2010 by using multi-state models. The transitions between states are assumed to be generated by a semi-Markov process. The introduction of the reform is considered as a general system maintenance policy. The effects of the reform are evaluated by computing the system’s transition probabilities, failure rates and odds ratios of failure rates. The introduction of a reward structure measures the impact of the reform from the point of view of costs. An example showing the possibility of implementing a real data application is presented.     

An empirical examination of the effectiveness of dollar-cost averaging using downside risk performance measures

Some studies find the dollar-cost averaging investment strategy to be sub-optimal using a traditional Sharpe ratio performance ranking metric. Using both the Sortino ratio and the Upside Potential ratio, we empirically test four investment strategies for alternative asset investments. We find the relative ranking of dollar-cost averaging remains inferior to alternative investment strategies. (JEL G1, G11, N2)     

Taking a new contour: A novel approach to panel unit root tests

The paper introduces a novel approach to testing for unit roots in panels, which takes a new contour that is drawn along the line given by the equi-squared-sum instead of the traditional one given by the equi-sample-size. We show in the paper that the distributions of the unit root tests are asymptotically normal along the new contour under both the null and the local-to-unity alternatives. Subsequently, we demonstrate that this startling finding may be exploited constructively to invent tools and methodologies for effective inferences in panel unit root models. Simulations show that our approach works quite well in finite samples.     

On measures of technical inefficiency and production uncertainty in stochastic frontier production model with correlated error components

Analysis of the behavior of technical inefficiency with respect to parameters and variables of a stochastic frontier model is a neglected area of research in frontier literature. An attempt in this direction, however, has recently been made. It has been shown that in a “standard” stochastic frontier model that both the firm level technical inefficiency and the production uncertainty are monotonically decreasing with observational error. In this paper we show, considering a stochastic frontier model whose error components are jointly distributed as truncated bivariate normal, that this property holds if and only if the distribution of observational error is negatively skewed. We also derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which both firm level technical inefficiency and production uncertainty are monotonically increasing with noise-inefficiency correlation. We next propose a new measure of the industry level production uncertainty and establish the necessary and sufficient condition for firm level technical inefficiency and production uncertainty to be monotonically increasing with industry level production uncertainty. We also study the limiting probabilistic behavior of these conditions under different parametric configuration of our model. Finally we carry out Monte Carlo simulations to study the sample behavior of the population monotonic property of the firm level technical inefficiency and production uncertainty in our model.

下大力气提高劳动者素质

党的十七大胜利召开,全党高兴,全国人民高兴,企业也都很高兴。这次大会高举中国特色社会主义的伟大旗帜,总结了历史经验,准确地分析了当前中国面临的形势,规划了继续前进的宏伟目标和正确道路,提出了一系列更加完善的政     

The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting

This paper presents a new univariate forecasting method. The method is based on the concept of modifying the local curvature of the time-series through a coefficient ‘Theta’ (the Greek letter θ), that is applied directly to the second differences of the data. The resulting series that are created maintain the mean and the slope of the original data but not their curvatures. These new time series are named Theta-lines. Their primary qualitative characteristic is the improvement of the approximation of the long-term behavior of the data or the augmentation of the short-term features, depending on the value of the Theta coefficient. The proposed method decomposes the original time series into two or more different Theta-lines. These are extrapolated separately and the subsequent forecasts are combined. The simple combination of two Theta-lines, the Theta=0 (straight line) and Theta=2 (double local curves) was adopted in order to produce forecasts for the 3003 series of the M3 competition. The method performed well, particularly for monthly series and for microeconomic data.     

An econometric approach to estimating support prices and measures of productivity change in public hospitals

In industry sectors where market prices for goods and services are unavailable, it is common to use estimated output and input distance functions to estimate rates of productivity change. It is also possible, but less common, to use estimated distance functions to estimate the normalised support (or efficient) prices of individual inputs and outputs. A problem that arises in the econometric estimation of these functions is that more than one variable in the estimating equation may be endogenous. In such cases, maximum likelihood estimation can lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. To solve the problem, we use linear programming to construct a quantity index. The distance function is then written in the form of a conventional stochastic frontier model where the explanatory variables are unambiguously exogenous. We use this approach to estimate productivity indexes, measures of environmental change, levels of efficiency, and support prices for a sample of Australian public hospitals.     

国际工程承包风险分析

在国际上承包工程受到政治、经济、商务、建设环境、社会等多方面因素的影响,如何分析和评价这些因素对承包商进入国际市场并获取利润至关重要,本文利用AHP来分析和评估这些因素,计算因素发生可能性的大小,为承包企业进行决策提供依据.     

Efficiency assessment of Portuguese municipalities using a conditional nonparametric approach

This paper assesses the efficiency of crop and livestock production in Colombia by using a sample of 1565 households. The study considers households located in different production systems which differ in geography, climate and soil types. These conditions affect technical efficiency and thus render analysis under the same production frontier as inadequate. For this reason, stochastic metafrontier techniques are preferred, allowing the estimation of technical efficiency within each production system and between production systems in relation to the sector as a whole. Results suggest that households in some production systems could be benefiting from better production conditions due to advantages in the availability of natural resources and climate as well as to more favorable socio-economic conditions. Additionally, we found that, in all systems, households with higher production have higher measures of technical efficiency. Thus, significant gains could be achieved in the sector through measures that contribute to improve the efficiency of households within their production systems and by policies that help reduce the technology gap in relation to the meta-frontier. These policies would bring positive impacts on the quality of life of small farmers and on the productivity of the sector.     

风险评估与控制在电力企业安全管理中的应用

文章介绍了风险评估与控制的方法、特点和应用形式以及在市级供电企业中的应用情况,重点介绍了电网、设备、作业、环境与职业健康风险的风险评估及应用情况,为电力企业建立现代安全管理模式提供参考。