Modelling bicommunal conflict: 2. Structuring the model

The problems encountered in this exercise included those of drawing the system boundaries, selecting the most appropriate subsystems, deriving usable measures for complex parameters, and establishing relationships between variables. The article discusses the ways in which such problems were handled in a model of a complex social process.     

The calming effects of conflict: The impact of partisan conflict on market volatility

In recent decades, an increasing divide in political ideologies between Republicans and Democrats has had a notable impact on financial markets. In this paper, we investigate the effect of political conflict, as measured by the partisan conflict index (PCI), on both market and industry-level volatility. We find that PCI has a significant negative impact on market volatility, robust to different regression models. We provide evidence that such impact is not driven by dramatic political events, namely wars and presidential elections, or by presidential party. When controlling for market cycles, we show that PCI reduces volatility during expansionary periods but increases volatility during recessions. Furthermore, at the industry level, we find that PCI decreases volatility overall. We also find that PCI decreases the volatility of politically-sensitive industries significantly more that it does with other industries. These results can inform government policy makers, analysts, investors, and academics alike.     

内外均衡冲突下的人民币汇率政策选择:基于斯旺模型的研究

本文以斯旺模型为理论基础,研究了当前中国经济内外均衡,中突,并对内外均衡冲突下的汇率政策和货币政策之间的冲突进行了深入分析。根据斯旺模型,这两种冲突的解决要求当前实行紧缩国内支出政策和人民币升值政策的配合。因此,汇率政策的选择就变得至关重要。当然要解决当前经济内外均衡冲突,还需要其他政策的配合。     

Developing a health care strategy: a results-based approach

In today's corporate environment, health care managers will be evaluated on performance--and forward-thinking companies are already quantifying their health care success. How this performance is defined and measured will differ from company to company, but shaping the definition and aligning it with the overall business strategy ensures success.     

The expectancy–valence theory revisited: Developing an extended model of managerial motivation

This empirical study examines the relationship between managerial perceptions of elements of the performance measurement, evaluation and reward system (PMERS) and motivation. An extended version of the traditional expectancy–valence (E–V) model is developed to conceptualise the process of motivation at the middle management level. Based on this model, the direct effect of and interplay between the value of rewards, the attainability of targets, the accuracy of measures used to gauge achievement, the transparency of the performance–rewards relationship and managerial motivation are examined. Using structural equation modelling (SEM), the perceptions of 200 plus middle managers in a large, successful company in the financial services sector are analysed. The observed data generally provide a good fit with the structural model. The findings indicate that both extrinsic and intrinsic rewards have a significant positive impact on managerial motivation. However, the value of extrinsic rewards is significantly affected by other elements of the PMERS design, namely the accuracy of the performance measures and the transparency of the performance measures–rewards link. This has important implications for the design of extrinsic reward schemes, and the utilisation of alternative motivational drivers potentially present in the middle manager's job environment.     

It takes a model to beat a model: Volatility bounds

Models like the CAPM and Fama–French three-factor models are commonly used as benchmarks for calculating cost of capital and evaluating portfolio performance, despite the empirical evidence to reject them. For many practical purposes, “it takes a model to beat a model.” In this paper we derive restrictions on models that could “beat” a bench-mark model but might still be misspecified. In these “takes-a-model-to-beat-a-model” (TMBM) bounds, model A beats model B if model A's quadratic form of pricing errors is smaller. The bounds generalize the Hansen–Jagannathan bound and distance measure. We use the TMBM bounds to evaluate various linear factor models and consumption-based models. The failure of the power utility model is much less extreme when it is compared with the CAPM and Fama–French model. For reasonable utility curvature, the Ferson–Constantinides model and Epstein–Zin model perform best among the consumption-based models, beating the model of Campbell and Cochrane, in which model the value of the persistence parameter that matches the time-series properties of aggregate stock market returns seems too low for cross-sectional asset pricing.     

Modelling bicommunal conflict : 1. Posing the problem

This first of three articles reviews literature on the development of widespread discontent in society, on its mobilisation and organisation, and on the behaviour that finally results. The relevance of the ideas and theories to modelling bicommunal conflicts is assessed.     

Modelling bicommunal conflict: 3. simulation and validation

Some of the mathematical and computing technicalities of the model of bicommunal conflict are explained, eg the structure of the data file, time delays. The validation exercise has concentrated on the minority community submodel; unfortunately, it proved difficult to replicate any arousal of massive communal mobilisation, despite inputs reflecting discrimination and deprivation, while a number of other aspects of bicommunal conflict behaviour did occur.     

The systems analysis of conflict

This article is the outcome of a continuing programme of research involving systems engineers and political scientists. The ultimate aim is to explore the relevance of some of the methodologies of systems engineering to problems in the social sciences, especially the dynamics of domestic and international conflict. An initial exercise in modelling domestic conflict in terms of state equations (system dynamics) is described, although the study reflects the authors' interest in several approaches by the broadly based survey of past work and proposed diversification of their research.     

Financing bank stock ownership: A question of conflict of interest

The bank stock loan conflict of interest question arises when compensating balances are intermingled with a bank's correspondent balances for the benefit of those bank stockholders seeking a bank stock loan. This study attempts to determine if this practice exists usign two-stage least square regression analysis and cross-sectional data obtained from one-bank holding company applications in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Our results suggest that bankers with established correspondent banking relationships capitalize on their correspondent balances to obtain favorable interest rates on bank stock loans.     

Developing a Community of Practice: Michael Gaffikin and Critical Accounting Research

This paper demonstrates the role of a community of practice in academic endeavour, focusing on the influence of place and the role of thought leaders in guiding academic development. This is illustrated with reference to the influence of Emeritus Professor Michael Gaffikin in establishing a critical accounting community of practice at the University of Wollongong (UOW) through his PhD supervisions. Social network analysis (SNA) is used to visualize the 43 PhD supervisions undertaken by Gaffikin during his career, and subsequent PhD supervisions of his students, and students of those students. SNA illustrates the structure of relationships, and the paths through which scholars learnt from one another, which we combine with qualitative analysis of recollections, acknowledgments, and doctoral theses. We demonstrate the role of Gaffikin, as the intellectual thought leader, and UOW, as the intellectual place, in the development of the critical accounting community of practice. The development of critical accounting scholarship was a function of Gaffikin's intellectual and professional leadership, which he executed through PhD supervision, the annual Doctoral Consortium, and his direction at UOW. This paper highlights the importance of local communities for the development of research agendas, and the influence of PhD supervisors on the professional development of students.     

IBM中国步伐

在IBM的全球整合布局中,中国是IBM全球整合的战略性市场,也是IBM"全球创新中心"与"全球服务中心"的交汇点。     

Determinants of Swap Spreads in a Developing Financial Market: Evidence from Finland

This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of swap spreads in Finland using four years of data. Spreads exhibit a significant negative relationship with the amount of fixed rate deposits with banks, which reflects the importance of banks in the Finnish capital markets. Spreads are positively linked to business cycle and market risk factors such as the slope of the yield curve and the volatility of interest rates. The influence of hedging costs has become increasingly important over time, especially in longer dated swaps. A relationship is also observed between swap spreads and the external value of the currency.     

The dynamics of the management-shareholder conflict

This article investigates the distribution of equity ownershipbetween entrenched management and dispersed outsiders when managementhas the ability to manipulate the cash flows and when it iscostly for equity holders to prove managerial wrongdoing incourt. Management chooses the distribution of equity ownershipso as to maximize private benefits against the risk of potentialcontrol challenges. When shareholders are long-term oriented,then outside shares trade at a premium over the value to management,and management is inclined to sell off its equity stake to dispersedoutsiders. When shareholders are short-term oriented, then outsideshares trade at a discount below their value to management,and disciplinary pressure can be substantially reduced via strategicshare purchases. Changes in the cost of capital drive a wedgebetween entrenched management's and dispersed outsider's valuationof shares. Management exercises its option to buy (sell) shareswhen the option is in the money: when management values sharesmore (less) than outsiders do.     

An Institutional Theory Perspective on Corruption: The Case of a Developing Democracy

The purpose of this paper is to use quantitative data to describe corruption in the SANPS, and use Luo's ( 2005 ) institutional theory to gain insights into how corruption develops and remains entrenched despite the introduction of anti‐corruption legislation. A total of 1,500 questionnaires were distributed to public servants in nine provinces, but predominantly in Kwa Zulu Natal and Gauteng. There were 702 returned giving a response rate of 47%. We conclude that the findings discussed in this paper lend support for Luo's theoretical model being able to provide insight into the development of corruption, its consequences and possible remedies.     

Merger waves: a model of endogenous mergers

We develop a model of endogenous mergers to study their dynamic process. Firms choose whether, when, and with whom to merge. Two necessary conditions are identified for mergers to occur: firm heterogeneity and negative demand shocks. We show that mergers are strategic complements and therefore tend to occur in waves. Moreover, some mergers occur for strategic reasons in order to precipitate further mergers.