Making Deferred Taxes Relevant

Abstract

We analyse the conceptual problems in current accounting for deferred taxes and provide solutions derived from the literature in order to make International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) deferred tax numbers value-relevant. In our view, the empirical results concerning the value relevance of deferred taxes should find their way into the accounting standard-setting process. We conclude that deferred taxes should only be recognised for temporary differences that will result in real future tax payments and/or tax receipts. Temporary differences for which the tax cash flow has already occurred have valuation implications for the underlying asset or liability and should, therefore, be accounted for based on the valuation adjustment approach. Furthermore, we conclude that partial allocation should replace comprehensive allocation in order to better align deferred taxes with expected future cash flows and thus increase their relevance and understandability. Finally, we conclude that deferred tax balances should be measured on a discounted basis to address time value.     

The Valuation of Deferred Taxation: Evidence from the UK Partial Provision Approach

The UK provides a virtually unique environment in which to examine the information content of the partial provision approach to deferred tax accounting. In addition this issue is of particular interest to UK accounting standard setters in the light of trends towards international accounting standard harmonisation. Taking the total amount of deferred taxation to be equal to the partial balance sheet provision plus the potential portion appearing in the notes, this study tests the relationship between these various deferred tax components and market value. It also examines the economic rationale for the potential portion. The study is based on 1,512 company/years from the period 1989–1991. It finds that, while the full amount of deferred taxation is not valued by the market as a liability, there is evidence of the partial balance sheet provision being so valued. There is also evidence that the potential portion is positively related to market value, consistent with its proxying for information about future growth. This result is supported by the positive relation between the potential portion and measures of future capital spending, indicative of an underlying economic rationale for this deferred taxation component. From a regulatory perspective, the study concludes that the main benefit of the partial provision approach is that the balance sheet amount constitutes a reasonably reliable measure of the portion likely to crystallise as a liability, information that would be lost were only the full amount to be disclosed.     

Stock Market Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets: Evidence from Internet Firms

Abstract:   We use the provisions of SFAS No. 109 , Accounting for Income Taxes , to examine the extent to which stock prices of Internet firms were associated with expectations of future profitability before versus after the 'market correction' in early 2000. We find that the valuation of deferred tax assets of firms with business models reliant on the level of web site traffic was significantly greater after the market correction. In our view, this evidence is consistent with pre‐correction mispricing.     

Creating a Bigger Bath Using the Deferred Tax Valuation Allowance

Abstract:  The provisions of SFAS No. 109 allow US companies to make an earnings big bath even bigger through the establishment of a deferred tax valuation allowance. At the time a firm recognizes a non-cash charge, it also recognizes a deferred tax asset to represent the future tax benefits of the charge. Recognition of the deferred tax asset partially mitigates the negative earnings impact of the special charge. However, if the firm does not expect to have sufficient future taxable income to utilize the future tax benefits of the charge, SFAS No. 109 requires the firm to establish a deferred tax valuation allowance, effectively eliminating the recognized deferred tax asset. Thus, the establishment of the valuation allowance amplifies the negative earnings impact of the non-cash charge. We use a valuation allowance prediction model to identify firms that create a larger-than-expected valuation allowance; these firms may be creating a large valuation allowance as a reserve to be used to manage earnings in a subsequent period. We find that the vast majority of these larger-than-expected valuation allowances apparently reflect informed management pessimism about the future in that these firms actually do have poorer operating performance in subsequent periods. We do not find any evidence that subsequent reversals of valuation allowances are used to turn a loss into a profit. However, we do find a very small number of firms that appear to have used a valuation allowance reversal to meet or beat the mean analyst forecast.     

Discounting and the Treatment of Taxes in Impairment Reviews

Abstract:  IAS 36 requires an asset's recoverable amount to be measured by discounting its pre-tax rather than post-tax cash flows. Although defined so as to produce the same value, the pre-tax approach is claimed to be simpler and more reliable. The paper demonstrates that an appropriate pre-tax discount rate varies between assets with different tax depreciation schedules and that it changes over time. Hence, pre-tax discounting is likely to become complex. The paper advocates an amendment of the standard such that value in use is measured by company-specific after-tax cash flows, and such that deferred taxes are included in the impairment review.     

Deferred Taxes and Bond Ratings: A Canadian Case

This paper explores the usefulness of the current Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants standard on accounting for income taxes in bond rating decisions by credit analysts. Bond rating prediction models using accounting variables generated with alternate treatment of income taxes, have been developed. The analysis indicates that additional information presented by the above standard has not contributed significantly to the bond raters' decision making process.     

Discussion of: “On the Aggregation and Valuation of Deferred Taxes”

Review of Accounting Studies -     

The Recognition and Timing of Deferred Tax Liabilities

Abstract:   This paper examines the characteristics of firms that account for deferred tax liabilities related to government investment grants under an extended adoption timing period. Not only the recognition but also the timing decision is associated with changes in future performance and changes in the debt structure. Recognisers outperform non‐recognisers in the future, while early recognition is related to post recognition performance but only for those firms that currently perform well. Changes in the balance sheet structure are also related to both decisions. Firms with recent increases in the debt level tend to postpone recognition, while currently well‐performing firms that increase their future debt level are less likely to recognise deferred taxes.     

The Valuation Accuracy of the Price-Earnings and Price-Book Benchmark Valuation Methods

This paper evaluates the valuation accuracy of the price-earnings (P/E), the price-book (P/B) and a combined price-earnings and price-book (P/E-P/B) benchmark valuation methods. Performance of the benchmark valuation methods relies on the definition of comparable firms. In this paper, comparable firms are selected based on industry membership, size and return on equity as well as combinations of industry membership with size and with return on equity. We find that within the P/E and P/B benchmark valuation methods, the best definition of the comparable firms are based on industry membership combined with return on equity. However, only the industry membership is necessary to define the comparable firms for the combined P/E-P/B method. In sum, the results suggest that, when firm's value is unknown, the combined P/E-P/B valuation approach selecting comparable firms based on industry membership performs the best among all the approaches evaluated in this paper.We also find that the P/E benchmark valuation method performs better than the P/B benchmark valuation method and the combined method outperforms either the P/E or the P/B method. These results imply that earnings are more important than book value as a single-number firm valuator over our sample years (from 1973 to 1992) and that both earnings and book values are value relevant, one does not substitute perfectly for the other.     

The Valuation of MNC International Operations During the 1990s

We investigate how international operations affected firm value during the early 1990s. We also investigate whether the disclosures of foreign operations in specific geographic regions under SFAS No. 14 provide investors with useful information beyond disclosure of aggregate foreign operations. We find that in the early 1990s, investors do not value international operations as highly as domestic operations, and that geographic region disclosures are not useful for conveying information about the specific location and magnitude of the firm's operations. This latter finding supports the recent FASB decision that eliminated the requirement that firms break out foreign operating statistics by geographic region.     

Linear Accounting Valuation When Abnormal Earnings Are AR(2)

The Ohlson (1995) model assumes that abnormal earnings follow an AR(1) process primarily for reasons of mathematical tractability. However, the empirical literature on the Garman and Ohlson (1980) model finds that the data support an AR(2) lag structure for earnings, book values and dividends. Moreover, the AR(2) process encompasses a far richer variety of time series patterns than does the AR(1) process and includes the AR(1) process as a special case. This paper solves the Ohlson model directly for an AR(2) abnormal earnings dynamic. The model is estimated on a time series firm-level basis following the approach used by Myers (1999). It is found that, like the Ohlson AR(1) model, the Ohlson AR(2) model severely underestimates market prices even relative to book values. These results further bring into question the empirical validity of the Ohlson model.     

Payroll Taxes and the Decision to be Self-Employed

This paper investigates and quantifies the role of payroll taxes in the decision to be self-employed. It examines the effects of introducing into the labour market a payroll tax which taxes employers, but which exempts the self-employed. It exploits two changes in the tax legislation to confirm that it is changes in legislation and not other sector specific trends that are driving the results. Our findings suggest that payroll taxes do indeed influence the decision to be self-employed, with the probability of self-employment increasing as taxes on employees increase and vice versa. Furthermore, there appear to be declines in the return to self-employment caused by the tax, possibly due to inefficient allocation of labour towards self-employment.     

House Prices and Local Taxes in the UK

In this paper, estimates of the effects of local domestic property taxes (rates) on local house prices are presented, and the effect of local taxes on owner-occupied dwelling prices is calculated for a number of English cities for the period up to 1990. The methods used enable estimation to be made of the effect of the introduction, during 1990, of the Community Charge or poll tax in England, when the local tax base was moved from housing consumption onto individual residency. It is estimated that the reform could have increased house prices by around 15 per cent and contributed substantially to house price inflation.     

The Pricing of Dividends in Equity Valuation

Abstract:   This study uses Ohlson's (1995 and 2001 ) accounting‐based equity valuation model to structure tests of four explanations for the anomalously positive pricing of dividends reported by Rees (1997) and Fama and French (1998) . First, we find that dividends are not simply a proxy for publicly available information that helps predict future abnormal earnings. Second, although dividends act as if they signal managers' private information about future profitability, they remain positively priced for firms with low incentives to signal. Third, dividends do not signal management's willingness to abstain from incurring agency costs. Fourth, however, controlling for one‐year‐ahead realized forecast errors yields a pricing of dividends that is very close to that of dividend displacement. After showing that dividends are not simply a proxy for analysts' misforecasting, we conclude that dividends appear to be positively priced because they are a proxy for the mispricing by investors of current earnings or book equity.     

Valuation and Cost of Capital Formulae with Corporate and Personal Taxes: A Synthesis Using the Dempsey Discounted Dividends Model

This paper advances expressions for the firm's valuation and cost of capital as a function of leverage. The framework is arrived at by introducing leverage in Dempsey's (1996 and 1998) cost of capital framework and is applicable in the context of both classical and imputation tax systems. The framework reveals that both the historical stability of corporate leverage and the firm's choice of financing structure as revealed by the Pecking Order hypothesis are consistent with a tax-based explanation.     

Local Taxes and Capital Structure Choice

This paper investigates the question of taxation and capital structure choice in Germany. Germany represents an excellent case study for investigating the question of whether and to what extent taxes influence the debt-equity decision of firms, because the relative tax burdens on debt and equity vary greatly across communities. German communities levy local taxes on profits and long-term debt payments in addition to personal and corporate taxes on the federal level. A stylized model is presented incorporating these taxes. The model shows that local taxes create substantial incentives for firms to use debt financing. Furthermore, the paper empirically investigates the effect of local business taxes on the share of debt used to finance incremental investments by German firms. I find that local taxes significantly influence the capital structure choice of firms, controlling for a large number of other factors. In an extensive sensitivity analysis the tax effect are found to be robust across several different specifications.     

Effects of Progressive Taxes under Decentralized Bargaining and Heterogeneous Labor

We consider changes in income tax progressivity in an economy where workers' productivities differ and workers and firms bargain individually over wages. With given employment a pure increase in tax progressivity reduces wages by reducing workers' relative bargaining power. When average taxes also increase, after-tax wages are unambiguously reduced, while the effects on gross wages and firm profitability are ambiguous. We next endogenize employment and firm entry under a uniform worker productivity distribution and the government's only policy instrument is a linear income tax. While a first-best solution then is ruled out, a second-best solution can be implemented using a family of linear tax functions, where a more progressive tax implies a higher tax revenue to the government. We show that the government can increase its tax revenue, and reduce after-tax income differences, without any additional disturbance to allocation.     

Taxes and production: The case of Pakistan

This paper investigates the effectiveness of investment incentives and corporate income taxes in influencing production and investment decisions in the Pakistani wearing apparel and leather products industries. Three tax instruments are considered: the corporate income tax (CIT), the investment tax credit (ITC), and the capital cost allowance (CCA).The results show that since there are significant capital adjustment costs, it is important to distinguish between the short, intermediate, and long-run effects associated with the tax instruments. Production decisions are relatively more responsive to changes in the ITC rate compared to changes in either CCA or CIT rates in each run. However, only in the long run for the apparel industry are the ITC and CCA rates cost effective in stimulating investment. The CIT is never cost effective. Thus targeted instruments outperform the general CIT instrument. In addition, although the incentive to invest is enhanced, there is little effect on output. Therefore, tax incentives essentially make production techniques more capital intensive.     

The Impact of Taxes on Discount Bond Valuation and Risk

If the effective tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains are identical, the assumption of independence or dependence between ordinary income and capital gains tax rates is shown to have no impact on discount bond valuation or risk. However, even if the effective tax rates are identical, the shape and the sensitivity of the bond valuation and risk functions with respect to taxes are not identical under the alternative assumptions. A mathematical and numerical analysis of the sensitivity of changes in the discount bond valuation and risk functions with respect to income tax rates is provided. Comparisons between the sensitivities of changes in the discount bond valuation and risk functions and taxes under conditions of dependence or independence between ordinary income and capital gains tax rates are made.