国际旅游岛战略实施对海南岛城镇建设用地扩张的净效应与作用机理分析

研究目的：评估国际旅游岛战略实施对海南岛城镇建设用地扩张的净效应,并分析其作用机理。研究方法：断点回归与地理探测器。研究结果：（1）国际旅游岛战略实施使全岛城镇建设用地扩张的速度提高了30%左右,且主要集中在战略实施的前4年,但存在高估的可能;（2）国际旅游岛战略实施对全岛各市县城镇建设用地扩张的影响存在地区差异,社会经济发展水平越高的地区其城镇建设用地扩张规模更大;（3）国际旅游岛战略实施对全岛城镇建设用地扩张的驱动存在阶段性变化,前期主要是投资和产业发展驱动,后期则与城镇人口增长密切相关,但在开发国际化旅游市场的目标实施上不甚理想。研究结论：为揭示区域发展战略实施对城镇建设用地扩张的作用机理与效果提供了新的思路借鉴,能够为协调区域发展战略的实施及城镇建设用地扩张的有效治理提供相关决策支撑。     

区域发展战略对城镇扩张的驱动机制及其效应分析 ——以海南国际旅游岛建设为例

研究目的：分析区域发展战略实施对城镇扩张的作用机制与驱动效应,为协调战略推进与城镇化提供相关决策参考。研究方法：在辨析海南国际旅游岛对城镇扩张影响机理的基础上,通过两阶段的地理探测器,实证揭示其对全岛城镇扩张的具体驱动作用。研究结果：（1）2000—2017年,海南岛城镇扩张规模与速度在国际旅游岛时期有明显提高,扩张规模呈“外高内低”的区域特征,而内陆市县的扩张速度要快于沿海市县;（2）海南国际旅游岛建设实施前,海南岛城镇扩张受投资驱动的影响较大,而实施后的城镇扩张受旅游因素的驱动作用更加明显;（3）影响因子两两之间均表现出增强效果,且在国际旅游岛建设之后交互作用整体提升。研究结论：海南国际旅游岛建设主要通过吸引人口流入、扩大旅游消费需求、带动产业发展以及促进资本投资等驱动全岛城镇扩张。     

建设国际旅游岛背景下的海南生态旅游发展

建设国际旅游岛是由海南省提出的关系到海南经济社会中长期发展的战略选择。本文在阐述国际旅游岛和生态旅游概念的基础上,分析海南生态旅游发展现状,提出在建设国际旅游岛背景下海南生态旅游发展对策,阐明海南生态旅游发展的重要意义。     

海南东环高铁站点对周边建设用地扩张的净效应： 反事实分析框架的视角

研究目的：评估海南东环高铁站点对周边建设用地扩张的净效应,为实现高铁站点周边土地资源合理利用提供科学依据。研究方法：反事实分析框架与FLUS模型。研究结果：（1）2010—2018年海南东环高铁各站点周边建设用地均呈扩张态势,其中海口东站与三亚站周边建设用地扩张规模最大;（2）海南东环高铁中有6个站点对周边建设用地扩张的作用范围在1.5～3.5 km左右,另有4个站点因受其他因素的主导影响而难以有效界定其作用范围;（3）对于识别出作用范围的6个站点,其开通运营使周边建设用地净增加了18.39 km2,且主要沿着“高铁站点—主城区”“高铁站点—旅游景区”方向分布;（4）相比于“事前—事后”评估思路,反事实分析框架下高铁站点对周边建设用地扩张的作用结果更趋近于净影响。研究结论：引入反事实分析框架与FLUS模型有助于客观认识高铁站点对周边建设用地扩张的净效应,研究结果能够为协调站点周边土地资源开发与生态环境保护提供更为准确的决策建议。     

城乡建设用地市场一体化测度及实证分析

研究目的：基于2015—2020年浙江省德清县与广东省南海区的城乡建设用地市场交易数据，实证分析产权的市场分割效应，定量测度城乡建设用地市场一体化水平并进行对比分析。研究方法：OLS回归，时空地理加权回归，倾向得分匹配与相对价格法。研究结果：（1）产权的市场分割效应显著且存在地区差异，集体产权在南海区正向影响建设用地价格,而在德清县反之；（2）地区间城乡建设用地市场一体化进程不一，集体建设用地市场发育更为成熟的南海区城乡建设用地市场一体化水平为1.707，相较于德清县的0.880领先；（3）同一地区不同区域的城乡建设用地市场一体化水平也存在分化，集体经营性建设用地以异地调整入市为特色的德清县相较于政府整备入市的南海区城乡建设用地市场一体化的内部差异更小。研究结论：产权依旧是城乡建设用地市场一体化面临的主要制度性壁垒，不同地区及其内部城乡建设用地市场一体化分异明显。未来在深入推进土地权利权能平等，改善集体建设用地区位劣势的同时，也需进一步关注城乡建设用地市场一体化在区域协调发展中的作用。     

海南 破茧成蝶

<正>2月的海南岛,阳光明媚,椰风送爽,碧海连天,万木葱茏,充满魅力和生机。1月4日,《国务院关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设发展的若干意见》正式颁布,海南国际     

高铁站点周边LUCC的时序异质性及成因分析——以海南环岛高铁为例

研究目的：辨析海南环岛高铁站点周边土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）的时间演化特征，探究政府与市场因素在其中的作用，为合理安排高铁站点周边土地资源开发时序、实现可持续发展提供参考。研究方法：缓冲区分析、强度分析与地理探测器。研究结果：（1）2005—2020年，海南环岛高铁各站点周边LUCC主要表现为建设用地扩张、林地减少与耕地动态平衡；（2）海南环岛高铁各站点周边LUCC规模及强度在建设期要高于运营期；（3）海南环岛高铁各站点周边LUCC在建设期主要受所在地区政府投资的影响，而运营期则主要受所在地区市场状况的影响。研究结论：高铁站点所处地区政府投资及市场状况是引发周边LUCC并存在时序异质性的主要原因，应在不同时期协调好政府和市场在高铁站点周边土地资源开发中的力量以实现可持续发展。     

不同类型建设用地扩张的时序及空间特征——加速失效模型在静海区的应用

研究目的：分析城市扩展中交通用地、商住用地和工业用地扩张的时序特征、空间关系以及扩张时点的影响因素。研究方法：农地—建设用地转换最优时机理论;加速失效模型。研究结果：（1）不同类型建设用地在扩张过程中具有相互关联的时序和空间特征;（2）静海区交通用地引导了其他建设用地扩张的方向,而不同级别交通用地由于对建设用地和农用地影响的差异,加快或延缓了建设用地扩张的时机;（3）商住和工业用地在200— 400 m 范围内相互集聚,且商住用地产生的集聚效应强于工业用地。研究结论：细化建设用地类型以分析城市扩张的特征和机制,有助于城市扩展区的布局优化和集约发展。     

中国11个集中连片特困区多维减贫与建设用地扩张的关联分析

研究目的：基于经济、社会和生态3个维度构建多维减贫指标体系，测度2000—2020年中国11个集中连片特困区多维减贫动态变化，系统分析集中连片特困区减贫与建设用地扩张的时空耦合关系。研究方法：指标评价法、综合扩张指数和脱钩模型。研究结果：（1)研究期间集中连片特困区减贫成效显著，2000—2010年和2010—2020年县域单元多维减贫指数均值分别为0.134和0.186，经济减贫指数明显高于社会和生态减贫指数；（2)集中连片特困区建设用地扩张先缓后快，局部区域扩张迅速，但整体以相对稳定型扩张为主，2010—2020年扩张明显加快，缓变型和快变型呈现组团化分布；（3)研究期间集中连片特困区减贫指数与建设用地扩张指数以较理想型的弱脱钩为主，强脱钩县域单元数量由2000—2010年的131个减少为2010—2020年的10个，与之对应的弱脱钩县域单元数量则由369个增加到486个，有效体现了“输血式”扶贫向“造血式”扶贫方式的转变。研究结论：特困区减贫动态变化与建设用地扩张存在密切关联，县域土地城镇化有助于增强特困区内生发展动力，后扶贫时期特困区需推进建设用地由增量扩张向存量调整的高质量发...     

海南建立离岸金融市场模式及路径

海南建设国际旅游岛作为国家发展战略之一,引起全国广泛关注,国务院在《关于海南国际旅游岛建设发展的若干意见》中明确海南可以＂探索开展离岸金融业务试点＂。本文通过对海南构建离岸金融市场的必要性和面临的主要困难进行分析,提出构建海南离岸金融市场的目标模式和推进路径。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.