从OECD国家发展历程看我国2020年能源电力消费

详细分析了OECD 10个主要国家在工业化进程中的能源和电力消费趋势。分析结果表明：在工业化和现代化的进程中,电力消费的增长速度始终快于一次能源消费;后发工业化国家的能源和电力消费增速远快于先行工业化国家,各国电力消费比重都在不断攀升。因此,在21世纪中叶我国全面实现工业化、基本实现现代化之前,无论是能源电力消费的总量还是人均指标,我国的一次能源和电力消费都将伴随着工业化进程继续快速增长,而目前我国接近发达国家的电力消费比重还将继续上升。情景分析表明,2020年,我国人均能源消费将达3.18～4.95tce,能源消费总量将达44.2亿～68.8亿tce;人均用电量增至5240～8090kW·h,全社会用电量达到7.3万亿～11.2万亿kW·h,需要15.8亿～24.4亿kW发电装机容量,人均装机约1.137～1.755kW。     

Group Consumption and Product Diversity: The Case of Smoking Bans

I study product diversity in the presence of search costs and groups of consumers. Groups with heterogeneous tastes create a leverage effect on competition: a large majority of firms may end up offering a product that corresponds to the taste of the minority. I illustrate this idea with smoking bans in bars and restaurants. When the first nonsmoking restaurants opened, there were few of them with little competition and high market power on nonsmokers. By extracting a large surplus from nonsmokers, nonsmoking restaurants became unattractive to other groups, while smoking restaurants were plenty and competitive, attracting both smokers and mixed groups.     

The Determinants of Pricing in the Mexican Domestic Airline Sector: The Impact of Competition and Airport Congestion

Low-cost airlines in Mexico affect the lowest-quoted fares of one of the two principal incumbent carriers, but have no effect on the lowest-quoted fares of the other incumbent carrier. The same conclusion holds for competition between incumbent carriers where the lowest-quoted fares of one of the incumbent carriers is lower when incumbents compete. Congestion at the Mexico City airport is limiting potential competition, with carriers being able to charge a significant price premium. This suggests that the societal costs of airport congestion can go well beyond the negative congestion externality and should also include the effects of reduced competition. These findings raise important public policy issues.     

Assessing the Economic Potential of Electric Vehicles to Provide Ancillary Services: The Case of Germany

The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept is a promising possibility for the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into the power grid. This article presents an economic evaluation of EVs participating in the ancillary service market (primary, secondary and tertiary regulation) for the case of Germany, based on a price data set from 2011 and 2012. We examine the economic potential of nine general options to participate in the regulation market based on real-life EV specifications, connection powers and regulation energy prices. Results show that in the most profitable case a maximum average yearly profit of 730.31 € per vehicle is possible for negative regulation with payment direction TSO to provider in the secondary regulation market. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis is performed for all of the analyzed participation scenarios in order to identify crucial parameters for a possible V2G implementation. Major parameters for the successful implementation of V2G are the provided power per vehicle, the time an EV is available to the grid and the variable energy storage costs it incurs.     

Developing and Using Forecasting Models of Consumer Durables The Case of Color Television

Predicting the future sales of new and established products is a critical activity for companies to be able to plan and control their operations. Forecasting consumer durable sales is an especially difficult and challenging task since the marketplace is always changing. Barry Bayus, Saman Hong and Russell Labe present the concept of a market-driven forecasting model and discuss an application involving the forecasting of color television industry sales for RCA's Consumer Electronics Division. An important aspect of this application is that a single approach or model was inadequate to accurately forecast sales over the entire period since the introduction of color TV. Econometric and simulation models which were developed are described, along with their forecasting performance and management acceptance and use.     

2005年国内外能源政策综述

2005年,高油价促使许多国家对能源政策进行调整,各国纷纷采取节能和扩大能源开发的新举措.主要石油生产国加强对石油业的控制,增加油气开采、生产及能源基础设施建设的投资;石油消费国采取各种节能措施,千方百计减少石油消费,同时,积极开发新能源和可再生能源;亚洲各国削减补贴,提高出口关税,降低进口关税以遏制能源需求;世界各主要国家的能源对话与合作显著加强.2005年,中国实施的能源政策措施可以概括为:加强能源战略规划,加强能源法律体系建设;对高耗能行业进行结构调整;促进资源节约型、环境友好型社会建设;加快垄断行业改革,进一步引入市场机制;全面整顿和规范矿产资源开发秩序;改革能源价格体系;抑制资源性产品出口过快增长;提高资源税征收标准;加强能源外交,提高能源合作水平.预计2006年我国的能源政策措施将从以总量调控为主转向以结构调整为主.     

国内外聚丁二烯橡胶生产消费及市场分析

分析了国内外聚丁二烯橡胶(BR)的生产和消费情况，指出目前我国BR的生产能力已经过剩，建议今后不宜再新建装置或进行扩大生产能力改造，应提高技术水平，提高产品质量，降低成本；加大开发力度，开发新品种、新牌号和新的应用；积极扩大出口等.     

我国区域钢材消费分析及预测

工业和建筑业增加值与钢材消费量有较强的相关性。采用横截面数据对全国31个省市自治区2005年钢材消费量、工业增加值、建筑业增加值之间的关系运用计量经济模型，得出变量之间的数量关系，并根据模型进行分析、预测2010年全国各区域市场钢材需求量。     

2005年世界主要国家原油加工能力统计

(截至2006年1月1日)国家或地区(炼座油厂)原油加工减压蒸馏焦化年加热工加能工力①(万吨催)化裂化催化重整加氢裂化加氢处理亚太地区154110865.121741.43029.42276.713758.28285.43917.745345.9澳大利亚73507.8898.90.00.01185.7708.281.11725.7孟加拉国1165.021.20.052.00.07.76.410.6文莱143.00.00.00.00.024.50.00.0中国②5131230.01272.0858.00.03057.6670.8275.62337.3中国台湾省46100.01015.0280.50.01019.2494.50.02639.4印度1711273.12687.0932.9484.51546.0179.2289.41208.5印度尼西亚84963.71409.7179.2306.1527.5399.8528.5124.2…     

The International Expansion Process of MNEs from Developing Countries: A Case Study of Thailand's CP Group

This paper reviews different streams of literature on Third World multinational enterprises (MNEs), highlighting the necessity to maintain a balance between exploiting existing resources and accumulating new competence. Using a case study research methodology, empirical evidence is presented on the international expansion process of the CP Group of Thailand. The paper attempts to explain the sequential growth and expansion of the CP Group into different technological and geographical areas. While existing resources feature prominently determining the direction and the success of expansion, the accumulation of new expertise becomes even more significant in the long run. The paper also suggests a variety of theoretical and empirical issues which may be relevant in the future inquiry on the internationalization process.     

中国能源消费区域差异分解及影响因素分析

分别以人均能源消费和能源消费强度作为能源消费指标,对2000～2011年中国能源消费的区域差异进行结构分解,并且实证研究了不同能源消费水平的影响因素。结果表明：中国能源消费存在明显的区域差异,能源消费强度的区域差异要明显大于人均能源消费的区域差异。三区域（东部、中部、西部）划分标准下,能源消费总体差异主要源于区域内差异。城市化水平、能源消费结构、产业结构、人口规模以及人均收入是造成能源消费水平区域差异的重要因素。     

Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime-Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices

While price changes on any particular home are difficult to predict, aggregate home price changes are forecastable. In this context, this paper compares the forecasting performance of three types of univariate time series models: ARIMA, GARCH and regime-switching. The underlying intuition behind regime-switching models is that the series of interest behaves differently depending on the realization of an unobservable regime variable. Regime-switching models are a compelling choice for real estate markets that have historically displayed boom and bust cycles. However, we find that, while regime-switching models can perform better in-sample, simple ARIMA models generally perform better in out-of-sample forecasting.     

共同的挑战:能源供应、能源消费与环境--BP集团首席执行官约翰·布朗勋爵剑桥大学演讲观点摘录

过去的十年是中国经济经历快速增长的十年.尽管人口继续增长,但是中国的人均收入增长已经超过100%.最近的数据显示,当前中国经济是1995年的2.25倍,是1980年的9.5倍多.或许最引人注目的是,几十年来,中国致力于发展国内经济,现在已经成为全球经济不可分割的一部分.     

技术创新、产业结构升级对能源消费的影响研究——以长三角地区为例北大核心

技术创新和产业结构升级是长三角地区优化能源消费、提高资源利用效率的关键。本文在分析技术创新、产业结构升级对能源消费的作用机制的基础上,运用长三角地区2000~2020年的面板数据构建面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)进行实证分析研究。研究结果表明,技术创新和产业结构升级短期内会造成能源消费的增加,而在长期对能源消费均表现出显著的抑制作用;技术创新、产业结构调整对能源消费的影响程度是逐步增强的,而能源消费自身的惯性作用则不断减弱;在长期中,产业结构升级和能源消费自身对能源消费的变动影响最大,技术创新影响相对较小。     

日本能源与电力消费效率分析

日本是当今世界上第二大经济强国,同时也是能源和电力消费效率最高的国家之一.本文论述了日本战后经济发展各阶段能源和电力的消费特点,重点对日本的能源利用效率(能源经济效率)和电力消费效率发展变化趋势及主要影响因素进行了分析,指出调整经济结构、优化能源消费结构以及推行节约能源是促进日本能源效率提高的重要因素,而电气化水平的不断提高使得电力消费强度呈现出与能源消费强度不完全一致的变化特点,并提出对我国能源发展的启示和借鉴.     

我国环氧氯丙烷生产消费状况及“十五”市场需求预测

我国目前环氧氯丙烷的生产能力为110kt／a，不能满足国内的需求。对在市场供应不足的情况下环氧氯丙烷市场疲软的原因进行了分析。建议发展环氧氯丙烷下游产品，开发中间产品氯丙烯和氯丙醇的利用领域，加强科学管理和技术改造，开拓国外市场，来应对市场疲软的局面。     

近年我国成品油消费特点及2007年需求预测

我国成品油消费在经历了2004年的高速增长后,2005年增速明显放缓,而2006年各季度成品油消费增速普遍高于上年同期水平.据初步统计,2006年全年成品油消费量为17498万吨,比2005年增加了1054万吨,同比增长6.4%.近年来,我国交通用油在成品油消费结构中的比例明显提高;高标号汽油消费增长明显,乙醇汽油消费增长加快;交通运输用柴油占柴油总消费量的比例稳步上升;航空运输的高速发展带动了航煤需求的增长.国民经济和交通运输业的高速发展,汽车保有量的增长及结构变化是推动我国成品油消费变化的主要原因.综合考虑成品油需求的拉动因素和抑制因素,预计2007年我国成品油需求将延续2006年的增长趋势,但增幅略有回落,汽油消费量为5340万吨左右,增幅为5.9%～8.0%;柴油消费量为12030万吨左右,增幅为5.0%～7.1%;煤油的需求量预计达到1200万吨左右,增幅为2.7%～4.8%.     

实现单位GDP能耗降低20%目标的途径和措施建议

单位GDP能耗降低20%目标是引领节约型社会建设的标志性指标,如何实现该目标面临巨大挑战。“十一五”期间节能降耗工作要多途径全面推进,工业是重点,结构调整是关键;要多层次、全方位推进节能规制和政策建设,更要组织落实节能降耗重大行动。