Statistical Approaches to Forecasting Domestic Energy Consumption and Assessing Determinants: The Case of Nordic Countries

The residential sector accounts for large share of total annual energy use in the Nordic countries due to the extremely cold climates and high household heating demand. Most domestic energy consumption in the Nordic countries is for space heating and providing hot water. The purpose of our study was to forecast the annual energy consumption of the Nordic residential sectors by 2020 as a function of socio-economic and environmental factors, and to offer a framework for the predictors in each country.

Our research models the domestic energy use in Nordic countries based on social, economic and environmental factors. Applying the multiple linear regression (MLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and the artificial neural network (ANN) analysis methodologies, three models have been generated for each country in the Nordic region. Using these models, we forecasted the Nordic countries domestic energy use by 2020 and assessed the causal links between energy consumption and the investigated predictors. The results showed that the ANN models have a superior capability of forecasting the domestic energy use and specifying the importance of predictors compared to the regression models. The models revealed that changes in population, unemployment rate, work force, urban population, and the amount of CO₂ emissions from the residential sectors can cause significant variations in Nordic domestic sector energy use.     

“Engineering Economics Jeopardy!” Mobile App for University Students

This article presents the “Engineering Economics Jeopardy!” mobile app development process and college students’ satisfaction assessment of the developed app. The app includes a general tools E-book, calculator, reference tables, conceptual questions, and calculation problems in an engaging fashion. The E-book is a summary of the key concepts of engineering economics. The calculator provides functions to solve basic engineering economics problems with formulas. The tables allow the users to compute discrete compound interest factors. Through this Jeopardy! game, users can compete with two virtual opponents that have artificial intelligence to answer conceptual questions and calculation problems. Different sets of problems range from the simple questions on the time value of money to more complex concepts, such as sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and supply–demand equilibrium. This app is intended to give students more opportunity to learn and practice concepts of engineering economics whenever and wherever they want using their mobile devices. Accomplishments of this work include the following:

• “Engineering Economics Jeopardy!” mobile app has been developed and distributed.

• Five thousand people have downloaded the app so far.

• The effectiveness of the developed app has been researched with 116 college students who were enrolled in engineering economics courses across two semesters.

     

Quantifizierung und Systematisierung der technischen und verhaltensbedingten Stromeinsparpotenziale der deutschen Privathaushalte

Electricity consumption in German households accounts for more than 10 % of energy-related CO₂ emissions. In spite of substantial improvements in, for example, the efficiency of household appliances, there is still a considerable electricity savings potential to be tapped in this sector. The possible contribution that the German residential sector can make to climate protection is correspondingly large. This paper aims to structure and quantify electricity savings potentials which could be exploited in German households either through investment measures or changed user behaviour. The total theoretical potential which can be tapped through the purchase of efficient household appliances and the replacement of electrical heaters and hot water generators (i.e. by encouraging investment) amounts to approx. 90 TWh/a. This corresponds to more than 60 % of the current electricity demand of all German households. By means of changed user behaviour, approx. 30 TWh of electricity could be saved according to our calculations. These results presented in this article were reached within the scope of the TRANSPOSE interdisciplinary research project (http://www.uni-muenster.de/Transpose/, the complete analysis can be downloaded at http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/transpose/publikationen/buerger_working_paper_3.pdf). This project is funded within the framework of the ‘Social-ecological Research’ programme of the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.     

An economic-statistical design of double sampling control chart

The double sampling (DS) chart can reduce the sample size when monitoring the process mean. In this study, Duncan's cost model was modified by adding the statistical constraints to develop the design model of DS chart for the optimization of design parameters—sample size, control limit coefficient, warning limit coefficient and sampling interval. A numerical example was provided to illustrate the use of this model. A sensitivity analysis of the effects of model parameters and statistical constraints on the optimal design of DS chart was also performed.     

Exploring perceptions and attitudes towards teaching and learning manual technical drawing in a digital age

This paper examines the place of manual technical drawing in the 21st century by discussing the perceived value and relevance of teaching school students how to draw using traditional instruments, in a world of computer aided drafting (CAD). Views were obtained through an e-survey, questionnaires and structured interviews. The sample groups represent professional CAD users (e.g., engineers, architects); university lecturers; Technology Education teachers and student teachers; and school students taking Scottish Qualification Authority (SQA) Graphic Communication courses. An analysis of these personal views and attitudes indicates some common values between the various groups canvassed of what instruction in traditional manual technical drafting contributes towards learning. Themes emerge such as problem solving, visualisation, accuracy, co-ordination, use of standard conventions, personal discipline and artistry. In contrast to the assumptions of Prensky’s thesis [(2001a) Digital natives, digital immigrants. On the Horizon 9, 5. NCB University Press Retrieved Oct 2006 from http://www.marcprensky.com/writing/Prensky%20-%20Digital%20Natives,%20Digital%20Immigrants%20-%20Part1.pdf; (2001b) Digital natives digital immigrants, Part 2: Do they really think differently? On the Horizon 9, 6. NCB University Press retrieved Oct 2006 from http://www.marcprensky.com/writing/Prensky%20%20Digital%20Natives,%20Digital%20Immigrants%20-%20Part2.pdf] of digital natives, the study reported in this paper indicates that the school students apparently appreciate the experience of traditional drafting. In conclusion, the paper illustrates the perceived value of such learning in terms of transferable skills, personal achievement and enjoyment.     

Towards a pre-service technology teacher education resource for New Zealand

The Pre-service Technology Teacher Education Resource (PTTER) was developed as a cross-institutional resource to support the development of initial technology teacher education programmes in New Zealand. The PTTER was developed through collaboration involving representatives from each of the six New Zealand university teacher education providers, Massey University, University of Auckland, University of Canterbury, University of Otago, Victoria University and University of Waikato, working with the National Technology Professional Development Manager. The framework for PTTER is built on four key elements considered to be essential to the education of technology teachers. The four elements are: philosophy of technology, rationale for technology education, technology in the New Zealand curriculum, and teaching technology. The PTTER is a web-based resource aimed at assisting technology teacher educators in the development of their teacher education programmes. The framework is a statement of shared philosophy, purpose and intent and is located on the Techlink website (www.techlink.org.nz). PTTER contains a range of teaching resources and strategies located within an overall framework for initial technology teacher education programmes. This paper describes the rationale for the PTTER framework, the process through which it was developed, explanation of each of the framework’s elements, and concludes with discussion of the framework’s implementation and future development.     

Regional multinationals and the Korean cosmetics industry

This paper analyzes the market penetration and expansion strategy of cosmetics and toiletries multinational enterprises (MNEs) in South Korea from the perspective of regional strategy as developed recently by Rugman. We find that MNEs have different market entry and expansion strategies in the home region and in the foreign region. Home region MNEs (Japanese MNEs in this case), in general, utilize their firm-specific advantages (FSAs) better than foreign region MNEs (European and MNEs from the Americas in this case). Due to differences in transaction costs, home region MNEs exploit downstream FSAs while foreign region MNEs develop upstream FSAs. Market similarity also leads to a greater incentive to operate in the home region rather than in foreign regions. The home region effect significantly increases the likelihood of entry into foreign markets as the host country's “diamond” significantly affects the market entry strategies of MNEs.