The formation of production expectations in manufacturing industry for nine industrialized countries

Using tendency surveys in the manufacturing industry for nine countries, different production expectations formation mechanisms are tested. Simple expectations hypotheses are compared by conducting nested and non-nested tests, and whether other information than that based solely on past production and expectations, is taken into consideration. It is found that expectations in most cases are formed regressively and/or follow a combined regressive and adaptive process and that information other than past production and expectations, only influence the formation of current expectations weakly. Finally, the rational expectations hypothesis is weakly rejected.I am grateful to Trevor Breusch, Robert Gregory, Paul Grimes, Raja Junankar, Wolfgang Schneider, two anonymous refereces and participants at the Advanced Studies Program in Economic Policy Research Conference at Kiel Institute of World Economics, May 1989, for helpful comments and suggestions.     

The productivity effect of government capital in developing and industrialized countries

This paper uses an aggregate production function to examine the effect of government capital formation on growth of labour productivity in an annual panel of 12 developing and 12 OECD economies covering the period 1976–1989. The results from a pooled model of all 24 countries indicate that contribution of government capital to labour productivity is positive and statistically significant. This result also holds in separate samples of the industrialized and developing economies where we find that, while there are productivity differentials between the two types of economies with respect to private capital, there are no differences with regards to public capital.     

A comparative analysis of inter-industry wage differentials: industrialized versus developing countries

This study aims to compare the available evidence on inter-industry wage structure for industrialized and developing countries and to find whether the industry wage differentials are consistent and stable independent of time and space. Moreover, it tries to clarify some of the determinants of industry wage differentials. International evidence supports the wage differential regularity across countries, and the factors underlying inter-industry wage differentials are found to be more or less the same for both industrialized and developing countries.     

Dynamic effects of public investment: Vector autoregressive evidence from six industrialized countries

We analyze the dynamic relationship between public investment and output. Whereas existing empirical studies on the effects of public capital typically rely on single-equation models of the private sector, we investigate the role of public investment in an economy by examining impulse responses derived from vector autoregressions. Using data from six industrial countries, we specifically examine the following questions: does higher public investment lead to GDP increases; is there reverse causation from output to public investment; and what are the effects of expenditure-neutral budget shifts from public consumption to public investment. First version received: April 1999/Final version accepted: August 2000     

Financing of innovation: national development banks in newly industrialized countries of East Asia

Abstract

Contemporary literature on innovation tends to overlook the issue of financing, whereas financial history suggests that banks have been essential to financing of new industries. Emerging literature ondevelopment banking, although inspiring, remains focused on financing policies. The article aims to rearticulate a coevolutionary nature of industrial and financial interests, following the works of Schumpeter and Minsky, by looking at the 4 cases of national development banks, tasked with long-term financing of industries, from newly industrialized countries of East Asia—South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia. The study suggests that innovation in finance, as well as organizational innovation in financial institutions, represent essential elements of financing of innovative activities. Further, organizational innovation in financial institutions, such as development banks, might signify a disposition to face uncertainty, which characterizes economic and technological unknowns inherent in financing of innovation.     

Determinants of capacity utilization by firms in less developed countries

The factors which influenced the capacity utilization decision of two hundred firms in the light manufacturing sector in Thailand during the period 1962–1974 were analyzed. The profit-maximizing capacity utilization rate for each firm was calculated using the projected balance sheets and income statements the firms prepared at the time of their initial investment. This ‘optimal’ rate was roughly twice the rates chosen by the firms. The extent of nonoptimal capacity underutilization of a firm was a function of the nationality of the firm's owner, entry date, number of firms in the industry, projected profits, and the manager's perceived risk of multishift operations.     

"走出去"配套金融机构的国际借鉴

一、世界各国官方对外投资配套金融机构概貌 如果对全球范围开展"走出去"配套金融业务的官方机构进行一番比较,可大致看出以下规律.     

The Chinese model for science and technology: Its relevance for other developing countries

This paper examines the growth of an indigenous scientific and technological capability through self-reliance (the “Chinese model”). It is a strategy that offers developing countries an alternative to dependence on technological transfer from the industrially advanced nations. The Chinese policy focuses on three major areas: choice of technologies, rural industrialization to balance agricultural and industrial growth, and mobilization of manpower resources to research and implement technologies for increased growth.     

Determinants of wage and price changes in less developed countries: An intertemporal cross-country analysis

A theoretical hypothesis of wage determination, conveying the arguments of the dual economy model as well as some elements of ‘traditional’ theory, and three alternative theoretical approaches to price changes are built and statistically tested. Pooled data, with missing observations, of 36 LDCs from Asia, Africa and Latin America for 1960, 1965 and 1968 are used, while additive and multiplicative dummy variables test the behavior of regressions between alternative country groups. Price changes are found to be explained by both monetary and nonmonetary variables with relatively more weight on the latter. The empirical wage change determination conforms to the dual model, while the existence of an international Phillips curve is questionable.     

On the static and dynamic costs of trade restrictions for small developing countries

We analyze the costs of trade restrictions for a small developing economy (LDC). Intermediate goods invented elsewhere are only introduced on the LDC market if it is profitable to do so. The LDC economy evolves to a balanced growth path in which income, welfare, and the share of available goods increase if trade restrictions fall. The adjustment path is asymmetric: an increase in trade restrictions leads to a slow-down of economic growth, while a decrease may lead to a rapid catch-up process. The dynamic costs of trade restrictions are in general substantially larger than the static costs.     

On the determinants of infant mortality in underdeveloped countries

The author attempts to identify the determinants of infant mortality in developing countries and, in particular, to overcome some of the deficiencies of a previous study by G. B. Rodgers. The roles of income and inequality as determinants of infant mortality are first examined. Next, consideration is given to the effects of education and medical care. A selection of regression results is then presented. The results provide some evidence as to why infant mortality rates, which fell rapidly in the two decades following World War II, stabilized in the late 1960s and 1970s. They also suggest that developing countries that place low priority on improving women's education and on attaining a more egalitarian distribution of incomes are unlikely to achieve a rapid reduction in their infant mortality rates.     

On semi-industrialized countries and the acquisition of advanced technological capabilities

The last decades have witnessed a breaking down of the hitherto quasi-monopoly in industrial and technological development held by highly industrialized countries. Man-made changes in comparative advantage due to rapid accumulation of human capital, development of technical institutions and public policies in support of enterprise development and innovation, have led to the emergence of advanced technical capabilities in a number of semi-industrialized countries. Study of selected instances of their technological achievement shows that they cannot be adequately interpreted as necessarily requiring the working of a well-integrated national innovation system. They seem to be instead path, or process, dependent and determined by the circumstantial convergence of requisite skills, appropriate institutions and supportive public policies.     

论"中国经济学"的科学发展观

从王亚南提出"中国经济学"的初衷和《中国经济原论》论著的思想,以及经济学的学科性质来看,"中国经济学"在现阶段具有特定的固有涵义,是指运用马克思主义经济学基本原理、借鉴西方经济学基本原理和应用中国学者的理论经济学创新,来研究中国社会主义市场经济建设这一特定经济问题的经济学.     

On the alternative explanations of persistence of unemployment in the OECD countries

This paper begins with a summary statement of a few relevant facts about the worsening state of unemployment since the mid-1970s in the OECD countries. A joint statistical test of the hypotheses of the natural rate, hysteresis, and the persistence is conducted by pooling annual data (1963-93) from up to 16 OECD countries. The results provide strong evidence in support of the persistence hypothesis and the non-linearity of the Phillips curve while concurrently rejecting the other two alternative explanations.     

On emancipators,engineers, and students: The appropriate attitude of the economist

The Review of Austrian Economics - This paper presents an original conceptualization of the different attitudes economists have expressed toward their object of study. It distinguishes between a...     

On the theory of international trade between capitalist and labour-managed countries

This paper attempts to establish a model of international trade between capitalist and labour-managed countries and to reexamine whether or not the basic theorems of the traditional trade theory carry over to environments characterized by the coexistence of capitalist and labour-managed countries.     

International technology diffusion and economic growth: Explaining the spillover benefits to developing countries

Technology spillovers offer great opportunities for economic growth to developing countries that do little, if any, R&D activity. This paper explores the extent to which these countries benefit from foreign technology, the diffusion mechanisms involved, and the factors that shape their absorption capabilities. Results based on a non-stationary panel of 55 developing countries indicate that the benefits are quite substantial: a ten-percent increase in foreign R&D stock is translated into more than a two-percent increase in aggregate productivity. Of the diffusion channels considered, imports appear to be more conducive to R&D spillover. In addition, developing countries that enjoy larger benefits tend to exhibit larger stock of human capital, more openness to trade and foreign activities, and stronger institutions. These North–South R&D spillovers, although larger than previously suggested, appear less strong than North–North spillovers, adding to the general literature on economic divergence between developed and developing countries.