Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s Rise in the Global Economy

This article projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia's new food law.     

Review of the EU’s Preliminary Assessment of China’s Market Economy Status

I. Introduction In late June 2004, the EUmade a decision on its Preliminary Assessment of the People’s Republic of China’s Request for Graduation to Market Economy Statusin Trade DefenseInvestigations. This preliminary result came out after China lodged the request in June2003. The EU assessment report holdsthatbefore it can be granted thestatus, China needsto make substantialprogress in fourfields:government intervention, corporate governance,property and bankruptcy laws, and the f…     

Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia’s FDI

In this paper, we develop the hypothesis that trade agreements influence foreign direct investment (FDI). We extend the conventional model of FDI determinants to accommodate the role of trade agreements. Fitting Indonesian data to this model, we discover strong evidence that, while both bilateral and multilateral trade agreements positively influence Indonesia’s FDI, multilateral agreements have a larger effect. We further distinguish FDI by sector and find sector-specific trade agreements play an active role: these agreements positively influence FDI in the primary and service sectors, but not in the manufacturing sector. We also find that trade agreements positively influence FDI through the export and total factor productivity channels, and less so through the economic growth channel.     

Market Opening and Transformation of China’s Car Industry

I.IntroductionThere are two different points of view on the protection of infant industries in developing countries.One,represented by neo-classicaleconomists,arguesthatgovernmentprotectionwould contributelittleto thegrowthof indigenousenterprises,and maylead to lowefficiencyand waste in resources.Enterprises need to fully realize tradeand investment liberalization(Grossman and Horn,1988;Krueger and Tuncer,1982).Theotherviewpoint,which comesfrom structuralism(or evolutionary economics),ho…     

Migrating for children’s better future: Intergenerational mobility of internal migrants’ children in Indonesia

Internal migration dominates population mobility in Indonesia; according to the 2010 census, there were almost 30 million permanent migrants, around 12.5 percent of the population. The effects of this internal migration on the second generation continue to be under-explored. This paper investigates the long-term impact of parents’ migration on their children’s intergenerational per capita expenditure when adults. We argue that parental migration affects the human capital investment on their children, which has a direct impact on the children’s outcomes when adults and on their deviation from the parents’ economic status, hence their intergenerational mobility. We pooled the five waves of data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), and we tackled the self-selection of parents’ migration using an endogenous treatment regression. Our findings show that despite the fact that parental migration increases the education level of children and their per capita expenditure, it increases intergenerational mobility of the children as adults compared with non-migrants’ children when they live in urban areas as adults, come from the poorest parents, or had migrated during childhood. The left-behind children have more intergenerational mobility only if their father migrated, while there is no significant impact on intergenerational mobility if their mother migrated. The results are consistent with the persistence of Indonesian individual inequality.     

On forecasting the relations between the People’s Republic of China and the United States

The article discusses the prospects of relations between China and the United States compared to the relations that have taken place between the superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union. A comparison of relations between the two pairs of superpowers is made in the article based on the following parameters: the interaction of the superpowers in economic and financial sectors, the struggle for the world’s mineral resources, relations in the strategic nuclear sphere, naval rivalry, relationship in the land theaters, and conflicts in cyberspace.     

A hallmark of India’s new economic policy:: deregulation and liberalization of the financial sector

A fundamental job of the financial sector of any economy is to allocate capital efficiently. To achieve this, capital is supposed to be invested in the sectors that are expected to have high returns and be withdrawn from sectors with poor prospects. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the validity of this proposition in the context of financial liberalization in India. We first examine whether the total funds (debt and equity) available for investment started flowing to the “more efficient” (defined later), Indian firms due to financial liberalization. We examine changes in the allocation of credit across industrial sectors and changes in the allocation of capital among firms within the same sector or industry. Our empirical analysis shows that during the early years of financial liberalization the share of investment going to the more efficient firms did not rise, resulting in no perceptible rise in the overall efficiency of investment allocation for the economy. Our analysis of the sources and uses of funds shows that in the period immediately following the announcement of liberalization in 1991, there was a tendency in the Indian corporate sector towards a myopic use of funds. The surge in the availability of funds in the stock market, coming mainly from small and medium savers, failed to translate itself into any noticeable rise in gross fixed assets (GFAs). Thus, the lack of an improvement in the index of efficiency of investment allocation can be partly ascribed to bad investments to begin with. The message that emerges is that financial reforms in an inadequate regulatory framework do not necessarily have positive effects.     

Bridging the Gap between ‘Joe Sixpack’ and ‘Bill Gates’: On the Efficiency of Institutions for Redistribution

All democracies have implemented institutions that redistribute income from the rich to the poor. Economists tend to have strong views on how this redistribution should be organized, based on the two theorems of welfare economics. However, these views are mostly neglected. I argue that the reason for this neglect is likely to be that these institutions are constrained Pareto-efficient after a century of experimentation. If not, some political bargaining would lead to the implementation of the Pareto-improvement. Hence, economists should concentrate on an explanation of the constrained efficiency of existing institutions instead of on the design of drawing table grand reforms. This approach is applied to three institutions frequently observed in reality: minimum wages, education subsidies, and unemployment insurance. We show that these institutions for redistribution are likely to be constrained efficient. We analyze the impact of the constitutional environment on the implementation of efficient redistribution. Finally, we evaluate the causes for the observed cross-country variation in redistribution.     

Volatility spillover between the RBI’s intervention and exchange rate

This study examines the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention policy in the foreign exchange market. An attempt is made to capture volatility spillovers between the RBI’s intervention and exchange rate. The results indicate that the past volatility of intervention has a positive impact on the present volatility of the exchange rate. Similarly the past volatility of the exchange rate, increases the present volatility of intervention. The volatility of the exchange rate is more sensitive to its past shock than the past shock of an intervention. Similarly, the volatility of intervention is more sensitive to the past volatility of exchange rate compared to the past volatility of intervention.     

The Services Sector as a Driver of Change: Indonesia’s Experience in the ASEAN Context

By various performance indicators, the Indonesian services sector ranks below those of its main ASEAN neighbours. This is concerning for Indonesia, given the the increased attention worldwide on the services sector as a likely source of growth, the contribution of the services sector to the competitiveness of other sectors, and the opportunities available for capturing the gains from innovation and change in services. There is scope, we argue, to increase the number of formal jobs in the sector and to dispel its reputation as the employer of last resort. We find that a restrictive policy regime contributes to the sector’s poor performance, leading to an argument for reform. We discuss a potential strategy for such reform, focusing on four factors: increasing transparency and policy information; capturing the opportunities from international commitments; and exploring the potential of, one, new technology, and, two, urbanisation.     

Transformation of the reproductive mechanism of the world economy and prospects for Russia’s socioeconomic development

The article substantiates the author??s view on the basic principles underlying the reproductive mechanism of the global economy. It shows the degree of specificity and consistency of the reproductive mechanism of the Russian economy in comparison with the global model. An evaluation is performed of the opportunities and conditions for a transition to Russia??s accelerated economic development and modernization of its productive apparatus.     

Risks,Resilience, and Reforms: Indonesia’s Financial System in 2019

Indonesia has managed the complex challenges of the global economy well. The country's capital outflows were smaller in 2018 than during the Taper Tantrum in 2013; the rupiah had regained most of its lost ground by January 2019; the Indonesian stock market has outperformed its peers; growth is forecast to remain stable; inflation is low; unemployment remains below its five-year average; consumer and business confidence are robust; and the government budget has improved through a smaller deficit and cheaper borrowing costs. But significant risks remain. This paper assesses these risks and evaluates the adequacy of Indonesia's crisis management framework. It finds that the framework has serious deficiencies that could see liquidity challenges become systemic solvency crises. The framework effectively removes Bank Indonesia as the lender of last resort, risks politicising the process of crisis response, and could mean slower, less effective responses to crises. This paper explores how the framework could be improved and what reforms could be undertaken to deepen Indonesia's financial system, strengthen financial resilience, and boost the long-term growth outlook.     

Crowd Psychology and the Complexity of the Security Market

The security market is a complex system. To explore the mechanism of complexity of the security market helps people understand the dynamics and the nature of its development, so as to better adapt to, regulate and control the security market. In terms of the science of complexity, investors＇ crowd psychology results in the complexity of the security market. This paper first confirms the existence of a crowd with empirical evidence gathered from the security market, then empirically demonstrates the existence of crowd psychology with a questionnaire, and finally analyses the influence of crowd psychology on the security market from the two angles of the correlation persistence and system evolution.