Handbook of New Institutional Economics

Abstract

Recent Scandinavian work on the relationship between exports and economic growth gives preference to home market factors as opposed to foreign demand, thus strengthening the view that growth is home-led rather than export-led. This article claims that the difficulty in determining the causal role of exports stems from the failure to differentiate between individual industries and macro-economic growth. Addressing the macro-aspect, the argument, called the ‘export specialization theory’, is developed that for small countries trade and pro-trade policies have been central to their economic success; moreover; in these cases it makes no sense to distinguish between home-led or foreign-led development, since by definition trade includes both demand and supply factors. In the light of this clarification the current controversy about the causal role of exports for successful growth in small countries disappears. By way of conclusion, the article argues that country size may prove to have been a critical variable in successful economic growth.     

从“东南亚联盟”到“亚洲联盟”之路

有人评论说，东亚经济一体化的构想远未实现，谈“亚盟”为时过早。我认为，东亚经济一体化是“亚盟”的重要组成部分，东亚经济一体化外，还有东北亚、南亚、中亚等次区域的经济一体化，正是这些次区域的经济一体化，构成了整个亚洲经济的一体化。把“亚盟”的实现作为一个次区域经济一体化的总目标提出来，很有必要。“亚洲联盟”决不是一个口号，而是一个趋势，一个方向，一个目标。     

Time-varying Cost of Equity Capital in Southeast Asian Countries

This paper investigates variation in the cost of equity capital for the Southeast Asian countries using firm-level data over the period of 1990–2004. It is found that decreases in the firm-level cost of equity capital have been associated with stock market liberalization and securities market development. The results of the present study suggest that earlier empirical evidence regarding the decrease in the cost of equity capital using country-level data cannot be generalized to different types of firms. There has been significant time variation in the cost of equity capital within countries and across firms.     

东南亚应对通货膨胀的经验与启示

面对2007年下半年以来不断恶化的通货膨胀形势,东南亚主要经济体积极运用市场干预政策、财政政策、货币政策等多种政策协调配合应对通货膨胀。短期内,东南亚的通货膨胀取决于国际大宗商品价格能否企稳和其国内政策能否稳定通货膨胀预期;长期内,则取决于社会生产技术发展水平和其企业对上游产品价格上涨的消化吸收能力。东南亚应对通货膨胀的经验与教训值得我们关注。     

全球金融海啸下的东南亚:挑战与机遇

由于部分东南亚国家是出口驱动型经济体,对全球资金流动存在较高依赖性,在全球金融海啸的冲击下,相关产业和整体经济仍遭受不同程度的打击,失业人口大量增加.东南亚国家正在积极应对这次挑战.     

东亚经济一体化的政治经济学分析

从纯经济角度来说，东亚各国的相对脆弱性决定了东亚经济一体化的必要性。从政治经济角度来说，东亚各国需要扩展区域间的合作来加强国与国之间的政治联系，进而加强整个区域在国际政治中的地位，中、日、韩之间的关系决定了东亚经济一体化的长期性。     

美国经济衰退对东南亚国家的影响

美国经济衰退给世界经济带来许多不确定因素,也给东南亚经济蒙上一层阴影。美国经济虽然是影响东南亚经济的一个重要因素,但已经不是唯一的因素,东南亚各国正在积极面对,努力摆脱美国经济衰退带来的影响,促进本地区和各国经济的发展。     

Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach

This study is conducted to investigate the prediction of corporate financial distress based on the Merton (1974) market-based Distance to Default (DD) model over the period from 1997 to 2016 which covers a range of economic financial circumstances, including the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The study focusses on the six largest countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike previous studies which focus mainly on bankruptcy, this paper focusses on early warning distress indicators that signal distress well before bankruptcy. This is when firms experience difficulty in servicing debt as measured by interest coverage ratio (ICR) at a firm level and non-performing loans (NPLs) at a country level. Key empirical findings from this paper indicate that the market-based distance-to-default (DD) model is generally a good early warning indicator of financial distress in the following year, particularly for ICR, but that prediction accuracy varies between individual countries in the Southeast Asian region.     

中国与南亚东南亚国家高技术产品贸易网络研究

南亚东南亚国家是“一带一路”沿线的重要国家,与中国具有紧密的贸易联系,高技术产品是中国与该区域国家的重要贸易产品。使用UNcomtrade2017年数据,应用贸易网络分析方法,从入度、中介中心性、紧密中心性,特征向量中心性四个指标,分析了各国南亚东南亚国家高技术产品贸易的网络特征。结果表明以不同指标衡量的中国、新加坡两国在高技术产品进出口网络中处于核心地位,其中两国是其他国家高技术产品出口的重要目标市场,而中国是其余国家高技术产品最大进口来源国。     

中国与东南亚国家技术转移有效性的影响因素与评价标准

技术转移的有效性已成为中国与东南亚国家区域合作发展的热点问题.从影响因素和评价标准两个方面,建立以中国为主体、以东南亚国家为受体的技术转移有效性研究框架.结合东南亚各国案例研究发现:技术转移有效性的影响因素来源于技术转移主受体差异、转移受体、转移环境、转移物和转移方式5个维度;有效性的评价标准包括技术价值、企业价值、人力价值和社会价值4个方面.通过构建中国与东南亚国家技术转移有效性的理论体系,为其前因组态分析提供了有效工具.     

Southeast Asian monies and the problem of a common measure,with particular reference to the nineteenth century

From the early seventeenth to the late nineteenth century, the Mexican silver dollar was accepted as a common currency of Southeast Asia, though local governments issued their own dollars based on it. The decline of the value of silver relative to gold after 1870 introduced a gradual shift to official currencies pegged to a gold standard in Europe.