Impact of Global Financial Crises on the Indonesian Economy： An Input-Output Analysis

The debt crisis in the European Union （EU） and the U.S. has significant potential impact on the economy of Indonesia. U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008 has a strong impact on Indonesian economy, that Indonesia＇s gross domestic product （GDP） slowed down to below 5% during 2009. Until October 2012, Indonesia＇s export growth is starting to grow negatively on some sectors when the crises in the EU and the U.S. have started or overall grew by -6%. Although the slowdown does not occur in all sectors, the impact spreads to other sectors as the existence of industrial linkage among sectors. The objective of the study is to look at the impact on the sector level on various indicators such as GDP （value added） and employment. Input-output analysis will be used in the simulation. Indonesia input-output table of 2005 is applied as the data base. The simulation results show that if exports decline occurs in the U.S., the economic growth will be -0.20%. Meanwhile, if it occurs in the EU, the growth of GDP will be -0.24%. If some Asian countries face the fall of demand of Indonesian export, GDP growth declines by 0.61%. The fall of exports demand from some Asian countries, EU countries and the U.S. will cause the GDP growth by -1.06%. The crisis occurring in both the US and the EU has decreased export demand from those countries and region including some Asian countries. The impact to employment seemed to be minimal, only -0.47% of total labour force.     

The Evolving Logic of the External Institutional Financial Organizations of China

Starting from the initial conditions of Chinese financial reform, the author tries to analyze the inherent logic why the External Institutional Financial Organizations （the EIFOs） steps into a tight comer. He points out that the financial marginal reform carried out by the country has no endogenous solution under the initial conditions such as the dominance of state-owned finance, lacking market basement for interest forming, no real finance price, the administrative approval system, and lacking market basement for financial supervision,     

The Portuguese Economy in the Irish Mirror, 1960–2004

The deepening of economic and financial integration in the European Union has led to different responses in the group of ‘cohesion’ countries. Ireland and Portugal stand out as the two extreme examples, as Ireland caught-up to the forerunners after the launching of EMU, in 1992, whereas Portugal lost ground. This paper looks at structural shifts in order to explain different economic performances within Europe. We conclude that Portugal’s labour productivity lag was the outcome of a less favourable structure of employment; that differences in the structure of employment are not clustered in specific industries; and that such structural differences are associated with different factor endowments, namely physical and human capital. Portugal has a rising competitiveness problem in international markets as real wages have increased faster than labour productivity in the 1990s. That has to be changed by policy measures, by the market through higher levels of unemployment, or by a combination of both.

The Positive Research on the Tendency of Industrial Agglomeration and Forecasting

New Economic Geography puts forward a famous law of inverted U curve. Meanwhile Chinese scholar Qi Liang proposes industry＇s life cycle theory, which is incompatible to the law of inverted U curve. In order to verify which theory is suitable for the situation of the industrial agglomeration of Chinese industry, we select ten kinds of representative products, carry on a positive analysis of the tendency of the industrial agglomeration from 1980 to 2003, observe where these industries center and forecast the industrial concentration of eight kinds of products in the following ten years.     

The Financial Support of Financial Institution to the Western Regional Economy under the Economic Structure Condition of the Geography Dual Economy

One of Chinese economy characteristics is the geography dual-economy structure between the westem and eastem area. A feasible method to improve the structure between the westem and eastem of our country is to study utilizing financial support, especially the financial support function of the medium and small financial institutions in the west, to accelerate the economic development of the western region.     

Reforming the Financial Health Care System： The Case of the Republic of Albania

The Albanian health care system is currently in a period of deep transformation as well as the country is reflecting the future reforms after the turbulent development of the most recent years. The admission of Albania among future members of the European Union requires also an innovation in the health care system in order to build a model more compliant with the European performance and standards. These innovations are required also in the managerial approach to the health care and in its financing system. The aim of this paper is to analyze the actual financing model of the Albanian health care sector while highlighting the possible future managerial development. First of all, this article presents a history review of the Albanian health-care system, analyzing the current governance model. The goal of this approach is to describe the starting point of the reform paths for the future policy makers. Afterwards the research underlines the transition from a financing model based on historical public expenditure to a system based on the performance as one of the main innovation in the managerial approach to the health care. The introduction of management thinking will then allow developing a cost-based financing model, an accounting system in the teaching hospital and, finally, a financing system able to pay for services provided by private health care entities. The article then offers also a contribution to policy makers in order to define the ＂paths＂ of the Albanian health care system in the next years.     

The Further Clarification of Financial Supervision

Now there exist three kinds of viewpoints on financial supervision. One thinks our country should relax financial supervision, other thinks that our country should strengthen financial supervision; the 3rd viewpoint thinks financial supervision should be flexible. This paper thinks the discrepancy of these viewpoints lies in the different object that they discuss. Actually these viewpoints are compatible.     

Dawn of Industrialisation? The Indonesian Automotive Industry

This article traces the development of industrial policy towards the Indonesian motor industry within the automotive global value chain. Showing the current dominance of Japanese motor assemblers in Indonesia, it notes the rather undeveloped nature of the locally owned supporting industry, particularly compared with that of neighbouring Thailand. Most investment in auto-parts production has been by foreigners. Nevertheless, Indonesia's rapid domestic-market growth has allowed it to attract foreign automotive investment without having to offer excessively generous incentives. While the continued entry of foreign suppliers of auto parts into Indonesia offers opportunities for local suppliers to upgrade their productive capabilities, it also limits their chances of becoming first-tier suppliers themselves. Japanese automotive investors are optimistic about Indonesia's export potential, more so than Malaysia's.     

The note issues of the bank of Sweden, 1668–1968

Abstract

Bank notes have a long history in Sweden. The first to have all the main characteristics of a bank note were issued in 1661 by Stockholms Banco. After the liquidation of that bank, caused by the over-issue of notes, the Riksbank in 1668 founded a new bank, Riksens Standers Bank (the Bank of the Estates of the Realm), now known as Sveriges Riksbank (the Bank of Sweden). This bank was initially prohibited by its statutes from issuing notes, but from the very year of its inception the public, against the will of the Bank, used certain papers intended for the internal operation of the Bank as substitute bank notes, and in 1701 the Bank introduced instruments of payment out of which bank notes proper subsequently developed.     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

Safety for Whom? The Scattered Global Financial Safety Net and the Role of Regional Financial Arrangements

The global financial safety net has undergone fundamental changes since the global financial crisis. The IMF introduced new facilities at the global level, new regional financial arrangements (RFAs) were created, and bilateral swap agreements emerged as a new element. In this paper, we ask how these changes influence the use of RFAs. We create a database with all the cases in which a RFA member drew on one of the elements of the global safety net. This allows us to analyze which other options the country had at hand and how their respective volume, timeliness, and policy conditionality affected their use. We find today’s global financial safety net to be not a global but a geographically and structurally scattered net with unequal access for three different groups of countries. Small countries can draw on their RFA. Only few countries can count on a bilateral swap line. The majority of the countries in our sample do not have several options to choose from. They have the IMF as their only source. We find that volume alone does not explain why countries choose a certain source of emergency liquidity. Even if “the big new” voluminous swap arrangements replaced RFAs in some cases, we find a complex pattern of complementary and substitutive use of the regional and other elements of the global safety net.     

The performance of the Cuban sugar industry, 1981–1985

During the period of Cuba's Second Five-Year Plan (1981–1985), the sugar industry continued to perform well. Both production and yields per hectare rose, the material conditions for workers improved, labor productivity increased, the mechanization of the harvest proceeded rapidly, large investments were made in modernization, and there were substantial savings in fuel use. There were also, however, problems. The output of the sugar industry was well below expectations, the new cooperatives fared poorly, free market sales of Cuban sugar dropped along with prices, and there were considerable difficulties from an agricultural point of view. Cuba also initiated a number of important organizational changes during this period. Huge agro-industrial complexes were established, there was some decentralization of authority down to the brigade level, and large cooperatives were formed from private farms.     

The bank of France and the sterilization of gold, 1926–1932

The malfunctioning of the interwar gold standard is frequently ascribed to sterilization of gold flows by central banks, particularly the Bank of France. This paper analyzes the actions of the Bank of France and the issue of sterilization. New estimates of the impact of policy on the Bank of France's gold reserves indicate that, of the policies which ostensibly influenced gold flows, only the absence of expansionary open market operations, which were precluded by statute, significantly affected French reserves. Those statutes and the sentiment which led to their adoption are in turn ascribed to France's experience with inflation earlier in the decade. Thus, the gold standard's collapse in the 1930s is linked to the circumstances under which it was reconstructed in the 1920s.     

Swedish Financial Politics, 1815–18

Abstract

Dr. Per Gudmund Andreen's dissertation deals with a period in Swedish history which is of great interest both to the economic and the general historian. From 1812 to 1834, the year of the final currency reform, the problems created by inflation and by post-war crises dominated Swedish domestic politics; only the great issues of foreign policy engaged more of the government's attention.     

Is Financial Literacy Dangerous? Financial Literacy,Behavioral Factors,and Financial Choices of Households

Using original purpose-built 2018 Japanese survey data, we estimate the financial behaviors and attitudes of households. We find that financial literacy plays an important and consistent role in financial decision-making. However, the actual behaviors are counter-intuitive: people with high levels of financial literacy tend to take too many risks, overborrow, and hold naive financial attitudes. That is, financial literacy tends to cause people to become daring and reckless toward some financial aspects. By contrast, financially literate people are better at retirement planning and are indifferent to gambling. Preferences such as risk and loss aversions and discount factors, also play a role in financial choices.