关于海南省农村信用社省级联社构建模式的思考

根据国务院关于农村信用社改革方案的精神,本文对海南省农村信用社管理体制改革组建省级联社需要理顺的问题和省级联社的构建模式与职责定位进行了分析,并深入探讨了省级联社的未来发展取向。     

农信社省级联社职能定位及改革模式考量

省级机构的改革是当前农信社改革中争论的焦点。各利益主体对理想的农信社省级联社改革模式认知的不一致,是省级联社改革难以推动的本质原因。在实际改革过程中,没有行业管理是否意味着行业服务的缺失?在不拥有管理权的前提下,省级政府如何管控风险?农信社法人机构组织规模最佳层级究竟在县域还是地市?农信社管理权能否进一步下放等四大问题,将是当前省级联社改革必须直面的。基于此,未来省级联社改革模式将取决于行业管理主体层级安排,联合银行或金融持股公司等将应是相对较可行的改革模式。     

县级联社的法人地位

正自2003年开始的农村信用社新一轮改革,提出由省级人民政府负责农村信用社的行业管理,除几个成立省级农村商业银行的直辖市外,其余各省均采取了成立省联社来承担农村信用社行业管理职能的模式。取消乡镇信用社的法人地位,成立以县为单位的统一法人,形成了省联社、地市级办事处和县级联社两级法人三级管     

我国农村信用社省联社发展模式的终极选择

农村信用社省联社的制度安排和发展走向直接影响我国农村信用社改革方向,目前省联社制度的性质和职能定位都存在缺陷,需要选择合理的发展模式。省联社发展模式的选择应有利于整合我国农村合作金融机构,有利于增强我国农村合作金融体系的竞争力,有利于建立全国性或区域性的有中国特色的农村合作银行体系。省级农村商业银行、地方农村金融监管机构、单一的行业管理机构和行业服务公司四种省联社发展模式都存在缺陷。只有兼具行业服务和行业管理职能的区域性农村合作银行机构的发展模式既能使各级农村信用社保持相对独立,又能实现自上而下的服务,使不同层次农村合作金融机构之间在业务上保持战略联盟,还能行使行业管理职能,是一种最优的发展模式。     

省级联社的管理和服务职责

随着农村信用社管理体制改革的不断深入,目前,全国绝大部分省份农村信用社省级联合社(简称省级联社)相继成立。成立后的省级联社如何履行职责,充分发挥对辖内农村信用社(简称农信社)的管理、指导,协调和服务的职能,这是一个必须解决的问题。     

农村信用社市场定位应遵循的原则及取向

本文所研究的农村信用社市场定位是在省、地(市)、县三级联社体制下的定位问题。三级联社分别按股份合作制的要求建立科学的法人治理结构。具体为:全国级协会、省级联社、地(市)级联社、县级联社、乡镇信用社。全国级协会属松散性管理机构,主要职能是对各省级联社进行协调,组织交流与合作,传达国家金融政策;省、县两级联社分别实行独立的法人体制,地(市)联社为省级联社派出机构,承办省级联社委派的工作;取消乡镇信用社法人资格,把乡镇信用社改为县联社的分支机构,由县联社统一实行独立核算;实行上级联社对下级联社层层控股。在这一模式下,农村信用社如何确定自身的业务发展方向与区域,这是确保农村信用社生存与发展的大事。本文试就农村信用社市场定位问题发表一点看法。     

农村信用社在全国逐步推开需要研究的问题

对组建省级联社问题、市地级行业管理机构设置问题、省级政府、省级联社、银监会在对农村信用管理方面的相互关系问题,产权制度模式选择问题及如何用好中央给予的扶持政策问题,农村信用社如何抓住机遇,加快发展的问题做了重点研究,并建议通过研究、观注、处理好这些问题,推进农村信用社改革顺利进行。     

农村合作金融机构风险分级监控体系的实证研究——十堰农信社个案

本文结合十堰市农村信用联社两年来对辖内8家县级联社、104家信用社以整合内部控制与风险管理为主要内容的风险分级监控运行情况的实证分析与评价,重点以“省级联社——市州联社——县级联社统一法人”三个核心管理层级为例,建设性地提出了农村合作金融机构风险分级监控省级网络体系的构建方略。     

农信社省级联社管理模式问题探讨

目前,深化农信社改革试点工作已取得初步成效,农信社省级联社的成立和运行在其中起到了较好的促进作用,但同时也在履职和管理方面存在一些问题,对改革进程和目标的实现可能产生不利影响.本文通过对目前农信社省级联社管理中存在问题的表现、影响及其制度原因的分析,认为:农信社省级联社应进一步找准自身定位,切实发挥组织、协调、指导、服务职能,并尽快建立和完善相关法规制度,加强对省级联社发展方向的研究,确保改革试点目标的实现和农信社可持续健康发展.     

台湾农业金库的运作模式及其对内地农信社改革的启示

本文首先分析了台湾农业金库的发展历程、股权结构及其职责作用,然后从法律制度、政府角色、业务开展等方面概括了台湾农业金库运行模式的特点,并参照台湾农业金库的模式,提出内地农村信用社改革发展的建议,包括建立相应法律体系、强化省政府在农信社改革进程中的作用、强化农信社省级联社的行业管理和服务职责等。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.