人民币汇率、FDI与中国贸易收支——基于中国制造业行业视角的实证分析

长期以来,学者们偏重于从中国总体、地区或国别视角考察人民币汇率、FDI与中国贸易收支关系,较少从行业层面上对其展开定性和定量分析。本文从制造业行业视角,采用有界协整检验法和Granger因果检验法对人民币汇率、FDI与中国贸易收支关系进行了深入分析。结果表明:人民币汇率、FDI与贸易收支关系在不同的行业具有不同的表现;在短期内,人民币升值有助于改善高新技术产业贸易收支,而从长期看,则不利于高新技术产业的出口;无论在短期还是长期,FDI增加均有助于提升高新技术产业的出口竞争力,改善其贸易收支。     

人民币汇率水平对FDI流入的影响分析

汇率水平是影响FDI流动规模及方向的重要因素。本文基于人民币汇率及我国利用外资政策调整的背景,分析了人民币汇率水平对FDI流入的竞争力效应、区位效应、部门效应及财富效应。分析表明,人民币汇率水平通过竞争力效应影响FDI流入;不同行业、不同区域来源的FDI对人民币汇率水平变化具有不同的效应。此外,汇率水平的调整还通过财富效应影响着FDI流入方式。这些结论对评估人民币汇率调整对外资流入的影响具有一定政策内涵。     

Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment

Building on the needs for long-term capital inflows in developing countries, this paper reconsiders the choice of an exchange-rate regime by integrating the determinants of multinational firms' locations. The trade-off between price competitiveness and a stable nominal exchange rate is modeled. Empirical results show that exchange-rate volatility is detrimental to foreign direct investment (FDI) and that its impact compares with that of misalignments. One policy implication is that the building of currency blocks could be a way of increasing FDI to emerging countries as a whole. The frontiers of monetary areas would then be strongly influenced by geography, as FDI is. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2001, 15(2), pp. 178–198. University of Paris X-Nanterre (THEMA) and CEPII, 200 avenue de la République F-92000 Nanterre, France, CEPII and TEAM, 9 rue Georges Pitard F-75015 Paris, France, (University of Amiens (CRIISEA), CEPII and TEAM, 9 rue Georges Pitard F-75015 Paris, France). Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F21, F23, F31, F33.     

人民币-美元汇率与中国FDI利用关系的实证分析

本文采用实证方法探讨了人民币-美元汇率与FDI的相互作用关系。本文研究表明,FDI的大量利用是人民币升值压力累积的原因,而人民币升值短期内会对中国FDI利用产生负面效应。本文的经验分析还表明,人民币升值也会对直接投资的结构产生影响。     

日元升值预期下日本国际投资策略与特点

1971年至1995年期间,日元处于急剧升值阶段,在此之后的十多年里日元升跌互见,整体波动缓和,2008年初以来日元持续升值。在日元升值预期的作用下,自20世纪90年代以来,日本加大了海外直接投资的力度,近2/3的资金流向了经济比较发达的国家和地区。与海外直接投资相比,日本的证券投资规模较大,占海外资产总额的近五成,其投资组合策略注重汇率风险管理,始终保持了一贯的连续性,重视资产的安全性和回报率。日本也加快了以其他方式向海外输出资本的步伐,按照国际收支状况的统计口径,这些投资包括对外贷款、贸易信贷、货币及存款和其他资产,其规模仅次于海外证券投资。研究表明,日本的海外投资区域分布和币种选择体现了分散投资、降低风险的特点,也在较大程度上降低了汇率风险。     

区域投资实际汇率、FDI与经济增长

文章基于跨境投资视角测度中国2000~2017年29省时变权重的区域投资实际有效汇率(RIREER),并将汇率、FDI与经济增长纳入同一分析框架构建理论模型。在此基础上,从汇率水平和波动两维度深入考察经由FDI渠道对区域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,RIREER升值有助于吸引FDI,进而对东道国(地区)经济扩张产生积极作用,该积极作用在沿海地区效果更为显著,拉大了沿海与内陆经济增长差距,但RIREER升值对FDI的边际吸引力递减。RIREER波动导致FDI流出,对东道国(地区)经济产生负向冲击,该负向经济冲击对沿海地区影响更为明显,缩小了沿海与内陆经济增长差距,但汇率风险增大引发FDI流出的边际作用递减。     

Exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment flows

Exchange Rate Expectations and Foreign Direct Investment Flows. — Theories about exchange rate expectations are difficult to check empirically. We study FDI data to find indirect evidence on the formation of exchange rate expectations by foreign direct investors. Using panel data techniques on exchange rate movements and FDI flows from the United States to 20 OECD countries we find that skewness of devaluations has a robust positive impact on FDI flows while average devaluation and its volatility do not. We view this evidence as consistent with the hypothesis that relatively large exchange rate movements generate mean-reverting long-run expectations. This finding is consistent with survey-based evidence on exchange rate expectations.     

Investigation of the “China effect” on crowding out of Japanese FDI: An industry-level analysis (1990–2004)

This paper applies a dynamic panel model to investigate whether China is crowding out Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) from other economies of Asia. We examined this with industry-level data on Japanese FDI flows into Asian economies. In order to deal with possible problems of serial correlation and endogeneity, we estimated coefficients using a difference and system generalized method of moments to examine the “China effect” on industries. We found a significantly high degree of crowding out effect by China on its Asian counterparts. Among twelve industries, a crowding out effect was found in nine industries, including electrical &; electronics—the biggest industry for Japanese FDI. However, a complementary effect was found in two industries, one of them being transport, which is the second biggest industry for Japanese FDI. We conclude that while China's rise is a prominent threat for the region, it could be transformed into an opportunity in vertically fragmented industries.     

Democracy and foreign direct investment at the industry level: evidence for US multinationals

Theories of multinational enterprises emphasize that foreign direct investment (FDI) is undertaken in different industries for different reasons, yet studies of the effects of democracy on FDI most commonly use aggregate-level FDI data. This paper evaluates US FDI outflows to 15 industries (eight manufacturing, seven nonmanufacturing) in 54 countries in a linear dynamic panel-data gravity FDI model using a “system” generalized method of moments estimator and three widely used democracy indicators. At the aggregate-level, we estimate a positive effect of democracy on FDI, consistent with most prior studies. At the industry level, we estimate larger positive effects of democracy on FDI for service than manufacturing industries, particularly for finance and insurance and information, and negative effects for mining and oil and gas extraction.     

中国工业行业外商投资结构的环境效应分析——基于工业行业面板数据的实证检验

本文选取我国35个工业行业2001～2007年的面板数据,考察了工业行业FDI以及不同污染程度和不同要素密集度的行业FDI对我国环境的影响。研究结果表明,对总体工业行业而言,外商直接投资对我国生态环境产生了负面影响。进一步进行行业结构分组后发现,轻度污染密集型行业的FDI对环境也产生了负面的影响,而重度污染密集型行业的FDI对环境的影响并不显著;技术密集型行业的FDI对我国环境则产生了较大程度的负面影响,劳动密集型行业的FDI对环境影响并不显著。文章最后分析了产生这一结果的原因并提出相应对策。     

Intra- and Inter-industry Externalities from Foreign Direct Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector: New Evidence from Mexican Regions

This paper presents new empirical evidence on externalities from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in several Mexican regions in the early 1990s. The main findings are threefold. First, the presence of FDI creates negative externalities within industries and positive externalities between industries through backward linkages. Second, FDI-externalities are stimulated by large technological differences between FDI and Mexican firms and by geographic concentration of industries. Third, we identify a substantial level of regional heterogeneity of the externality impact of FDI, in line with the notion that FDI may have contributed to processes of changing regional prosperity under trade liberalization. The findings also imply that maquiladora firms in the border states are generating positive externalities.     

劳动力供给、生产率与外商直接投资工资外溢效应

本文利用中国1999-2007年441个四位码工业行业数据,考察外商直接投资在产业内部和产业之间,通过直接影响劳动力市场供给方式和间接生产率外溢方式对中国内资行业的工资外溢效应。研究结果表明:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)通过直接和间接方式对中国内资行业工资在产业内部和产业之间都产生了显著的正向外溢效应;(2)国有行业比重提高会显著促进FDI通过劳动力供给方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应,但同样会显著阻碍FDI通过间接的生产率外溢方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应;(3)FDI对内资劳动密集型行业的工资外溢效应显著高于资本密集型行业,FDI进入显著缩小了中国不同劳动生产率工业部门的工资收入差距。     

FDI对我国高新技术产业国际竞争力影响的实证研究

本文以1996～2010年数据为样本,将FDI与我国高新技术产业国际竞争力的量化指标建立线性回归模型进行了协整分析。结果表明,FDI对我国高新技术产业总体国际竞争力产生显著的长期和短期均衡影响;同时对我国高新技术产业的五大细分行业进行对比研究,发现FDI对五大细分行业的显著性影响程度不同。最后,针对实证结果对我国高新技术产业利用FDI提出若干建议。     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Matter to Domestic Entrepreneurship? The Mediating Role of Strategic Alliances

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic entrepreneurship in a host country by analysing a unique panel dataset of FDI and startup rates in Korean industries. It finds that FDI with a time lag has a positive effect on the startup rate, implying that inward FDI promotes domestic entrepreneurship. It shows that the strategic alliances moderate the relationship between FDI and the startup rate, depending upon the types of FDI and alliances. Both intra- and inter-industry alliances enhance the positive effect of foreign greenfield investment, while inter-industry alliances mitigate the effect of foreign acquisition.     

Taiwanese industry competitiveness when outward FDI is defensive

The main purpose of this study is to examine the links between outward FDI and the competitiveness of Taiwanese industries. This is done by emphasizing the difference between ‘defensive’ versus ‘expansionary’ outward FDI. The empirical study is based on a panel data of 15 industries over the period 1991–2001. The results indicate that outward FDI of the defensive type, in particular that destined to China, while increasing industry efficiency has had a significant negative influence on competitiveness of the Taiwanese industry through its effects on innovative activity. While outward FDI has impacted the industry's productivity growth it has not decreased the industry's output growth or its share of domestic GDP.     

升值背景下人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长动态时变效应研究

本文运用Pesaran边限协整检验方法系统地研究了升值背景下人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长之间的动态时变效应。研究发现,人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长在样本期内存在显著的长期均衡关系,人民币升值和经济增长均对FDI的流入具有明显的促进作用。而经济增长与FDI的流入对人民币汇率的反馈机制并不存在,FDI流入对于经济增长的促进作用也不明显,表现出强烈的以"投机套利"为主要目的的"本土特征"模式。且同期的向量误差修正分析同样表明,人民币汇率和经济增长能够有效促进FDI流入,而经济增长和FDI流入对于人民币汇率变动的反馈机制依然不存在。这意味着政府当局在保持经济适度规模增长的同时,尤其需要保持审慎的态度制定适当的政策保持汇率稳定,以避免人民币升值过快而导致外资迅速流入进行投机套利活动。     

Geographical Distribution of Foreign Investment in China：Industrial Clusters and Their Significance

The incorporation of massive amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been a major motive force behind the high-speed growth of the Chinese economy over the last decade. A high degree of geographical concentration in certain of this country is a salient feature of foreign invested enterprises (FIEs). FIEs in some industries are closely clustered in industrial zones ranging from several kilometers to more than 100 km in diameter. Such industrial clusters are a remarkable phenomenon among FDI industries. High FDI concentration is having a striking impact on the competitiveness of the enterprises involved and the regions where they are located.     

FDI productivity spillovers and the technology gap in Malaysia's electrical and electronic industries

This study measures the impact of indirect technology transfer through spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) on Malaysia's development of a ‘high‐tech’ sector, namely the electrical and electronic (E&E) industries. We estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) of establishments as a function of foreign presence within and across industries. Both the fixed assets and wages share of foreign establishments in a five‐digit ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) industry are used as measures of foreign presence. The estimations provide evidence of significantly negative (or insignificant) FDI vertical spillover effects and insignificant horizontal spillover effects on the TFP of domestic establishments. The positive (negative) coefficient of the interaction term between the forward (horizontal) spillover variable and the technology gap supports the ‘catching‐up’ (technology accumulation) hypothesis. The negative impact, even absence, of FDI spillover effects on TFP and the mixed evidence on the effects of interactions between FDI spillovers and the technology gap suggest that fine‐tuning of fiscal incentive schemes for FDI to arrive at positive net benefits may prove to be a daunting task in the Malaysian E&E industries.     

Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia

This study aims to analyze how sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South and East Asian economies respond to changes in the business cycles of the host countries, as measured by their output gaps. We focus on 15 economies during the period 1980–2011 and examine inflows of FDI in extractive industries, manufacturing and services in addition to aggregate FDI by using a dynamic panel Blundell–Bond GMM methodology. We find evidence of countercyclical behavior of services FDI and acyclical behavior of both extractive industries FDI and manufacturing FDI. The coutercyclical behavior of services FDI in South and East Asia has important policy implications.     

Uncovering the Relationship between FDI, Human Capital and Technological Progress in Chinese High-technology Industries

Using a panel dataset for 28 sub-industries from 5 Chinese industries from 1995 to 2006, this paper examines the impact of human capital, R＆D expenditure and FD1 spillover on the productivity improvement of Chinese high-technology industries. The whole industry sample results suggest that human capital promotes total factor productivity, technical change and technical efficiency change, but that FDI lowers all of these factors in Chinese high-technology industry. When we distinguish between types of ownership structure in the industries, we find that human capital improves technical change but lowers technical efficiency change, whereas FDI only improves technical efficiency change in state-owned and state-controlled enterprises but reduces technical change in state-owned and state-controlled enterprises and joint ventures.