THE INFLUENCE OF RISK AVERSION ON THE UPTAKE OF SET-ASIDE: A MOTAD AND CRP APPROACH

This paper applies MOTAD and CRP models to the farm set-aside decision and presents a framework for analysis which examines the influence of risk on the land-idling decision. The results suggest that set-aside payment at a rate of £180-£200 per hectare would be attractive only at relatively high levels of risk aversion on an East Anglian specialist cereal farm and with moderate risk aversion on a Northumberland mixed farm. However, at identical levels of risk aversion, the area set aside was greater on the East Anglian farm. A survey to ascertain farmers' risk: income weightings is suggested as a useful adjunct to this work.     

An application of Target MOTAD Model to crop production in Zambia: Gwembe Valley as a case study

The Zambian Government encourages crop production in the Gwembe Valley without taking into consideration the risks involved. These risks mainly originate from the stochastic nature of rainfall. This paper, therefore, identifies optimal cropping patterns in the Gwembe Valley by using Target MOTAD Model. The results of the Target MOTAD Model indicate an optimal cropping pattern of growing sorghum, rice and soyabeans. This is different from the existing cropping pattern of sorghum, sunflower, cotton and maize. The overall policy implication of adopting the cropping pattern obtained from the model solution is that some resources allocated to the production of current crops have to be reallocated to the production of new crops. Moreover, since people in the Gwembe Valley are used to growing of cotton, sunflower and maize, the adoption of the suggested new crops will entail the education of the people (through extension services) in the crop husbandry of these crops.     

农户农业生产的风险反应：以浙江为例的MOTAD模型分析

本文以浙江王家村和大泖村的“典型农户”为例，基于MOTAD模型方法，对农户农业生产中的风险反应进行了实证分析。结果显示，目前，浙江农户在农业生产中对经营风险呈现出相当明显的反应，但不同的经营规模、种植制度、农业收入比重的农户对农业风险的反应程度具有一定的差异。农户的风险偏好不仅影响其生产项目的选择，而且也影响其生产规模。如果农户持风险偏好态度，在生产决策中将更倾向于选择高风险、高收益的生产项目。在风险水平较高的情况下，农户在农业生产中的资本投入优先于劳动力投入。对风险水平较低的生产项目，农户实行多样化经营策略，这样做虽然可以弱化农业经营风险，但也会导致收入降低。在综合考虑生产资源和风险因素的情况下，现有农户的农业生产结构具有进一步调整和优化的空间。