Approval voting with endogenous candidates

We present a formal model of political competition under approval voting which allows for endogenous candidate entry. Our analysis yields a number of novel insights. First, we develop a notion of sincere voting behavior under approval voting, called relative sincerity. We then show that the relatively sincere voting behavior is consistent with the strategic calculus of voting. Second, we show that in a one-dimensional model with distance preferences, equilibria in relatively sincere strategies and without spoiler candidates always generate outcomes close to the median voter. Moreover, approval voting satisfies Duverger's Law in the sense that there are at most two winning positions! Finally, we extend our analysis to arbitrary policy spaces. In the general setting, approval voting is shown to be susceptible to the same kinds of problems as the plurality rule, such as the possibility of non-majoritarian outcomes, failure to elect the Condorcet winner and existence of spoiler candidates.     

基于社会网络分析的山地公园空间 结构与布局优化

：为优化山地城镇公园空间结构与布局,借助社会网 络分析方法,选取重庆鸿恩寺公园、碧津公园和石门公园,构 建公园空间关系网络模型。SNA模型的结果显示,鸿恩寺公 园具有较高的完备性与层级性,碧津公园具有较高的稳定性。 研究表明,公园地形、形态、功能布局以及空间节点数量对公 共空间的结构完备性、稳定性与层级性存在一定影响。最后依 据评价体系,从网络结构和规划2个层面提出公园空间的结构 与布局优化对策,从而指导公园空间与等级设置,以及公共服 务设施等规划更新。     

PROXIMITY AND VOTING FOR PROFESSIONAL SPORTING STADIUMS: THE PATTERN OF SUPPORT FOR THE SEAHAWK STADIUM REFERENDUM

This paper evaluates voting behavior on the Seahawk Stadium referendum in the State of Washington. For our empirical strategy, we implement both the linear probability model and a group logit model, which gives greater weight to voting areas with greater number of votes cast. We find that voting support was lowest among those living closest to the proposed stadium site, while voting support was highest among those within “easy access” of the stadium. This nonlinear distance effect differs from the typical “proximity” effect found in most professional sporting stadiums in the United States; however, it is consistent with a referendum‐voting outcome for a professional soccer stadium in Germany and public projects such as national forests. (JEL R53, H71, L83)     

Does distance matter for institutional delivery in rural India?

This article estimates the causal effect of distance to health facility on in-facility birth in rural India, taking into account the endogenous placement of the health facility. We find that women living farther away from the health facilities are less likely to give birth at a health facility. Each additional kilometre from the nearest health facility is associated with a 4.4% decline in the probability of in-facility birth. Policy simulation results indicate that providing access to a health facility within 5 km would increase institutional delivery by 10%. Overall, our findings confirm that distance is an important barrier to in-facility births in rural India.     

Emigrants’ missing votes

What are the causal effects of emigration on election outcomes in the country of origin? Large emigration of high-skilled emigrants can lead to changes in the distribution of political preferences, which affect voting outcomes. Using administrative migration and voting data, we show that emigration from Poland following its accession to the European Union in 2004 caused an increase in vote shares for right-wing parties, while decreasing the vote share for left-wing parties due to emigrants’ missing left-leaning votes. To account for endogenous migration patterns, we construct an innovative instrument that measures the distance to the closest open EU border. Our results highlight that emigration enhances stayers’ trust in right-wing governments and increases stayers’ voting for parties with pro-European positions. Exploiting a change in voting rules over time allows to disentangle different mechanisms. These results have important implications for the design of voting policies.     

基于复杂网络理论的电动汽车充电设施布局合理性研究

提出了一种基于复杂网络理论构建电动汽车充电设施网络的模型,分别构建了上海、西安、合肥和大连的电动汽车充电设施网络,并分析了其电动汽车充电设施的运营情况以及布局的合理性。通过构建理想情况下的电动汽车充电设施网络,研究电动汽车充电设施网络的发展趋势。仿真结果显示:电动汽车充电设施网络的结构对电动汽车充电设施的利用率和稳定性有显著影响——该研究结果在实际网络中得到了验证。     

半湿润地区内源径流型海绵绿地设计方法 研究——以山西省晋中市社火公园为例

：以山西省晋中市社火公园为研究对象,通过分析场 地面临的内源型径流环境,结合半湿润地区的气候特征,以 设计全过程为例提出半湿润地区内源型海绵绿地设计方法,为 相关研究和实践提供参考。内源径流型海绵绿地的设计方法 主要包括6个方面：1)确定海绵绿地的雨洪管理目标;2)选择 LID设施的功能类型;3)根据相关规划要求对场地径流进行计 算;4)确定海绵绿地的空间布局设计;5)利用暴雨洪水管理 模型(SWMM)建立动态模型,将LID设施对削减雨水径流总 量与峰值流量,推迟洪峰时间等控制效果进行量化模拟,对比 分析海绵绿地与传统雨水管网调蓄能力;6)在满足低影响开 发措施功能的同时,结合景观化策略,通过Hec-ras软件对水 景效果进行模拟。     

Voting in small networks with cross-pressure

We present a model of participation in elections in small networks, in which citizens suffer from cross-pressures if voting against the alternative preferred by some of their social contacts. We analyze how the existence of cross-pressures may shape voting decisions, and so, political outcomes; and how parties may exploit this effect to their interest. We characterize the strong perfect equilibria of the game and show that, in equilibrium, the social network determines which party wins the election. We also show that to dispose of the citizens better connected in the network with the other faction is not a guarantee to win the election.      

骨干交通设施对区域旅游空间格局的影响——以渤海海峡跨海通道为例

骨干交通设施是旅游发展的主要媒介和重要的旅游吸引物。以渤海海峡跨海通道为研究对象,选取网络通达性指数、三步深度值、空间距离通达性指数等3个指标和点的中间中心度、线的中间中心度2个指标分别定量分析跨海通道对环渤海区域高速公路网、铁路网通达性的影响。综合考虑交通通达性、旅游资源、客源市场、旅游线路变化等多种因素,认为:大连、烟台成为新的旅游交通枢纽和旅游增长极;跨海通道旅游发展轴将凸显,此轴辐射山东半岛和辽东半岛,形成山东山水圣人与齐鲁文化旅游辐射带和辽中南旅游辐射带;环渤海区域旅游空间格局由"双核、四轴、三块、五区"演变为"双核、二轴、三块、六区、两面"。     

VOTING AND SOCIAL PRESSURE UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION

We develop a model in which costly voting in a large, two‐party election is a sequentially rational choice of strategic, self‐interested players who can reward fellow voters by forming stronger ties in a network formation coordination game. The predictions match a variety of stylized facts, including explaining why an individual's voting behavior may depend on what she knows about her friends' actions. Players have imperfect information about others' voting behavior, and we find that some degree of privacy may be necessary for voting in equilibrium, enabling hypocritical but useful social pressure. Our framework applies to any costly prosocial behavior.     

The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.     

Deregulation,competition, and the network size in the market for telecommunication services

This paper analyzes the networking aspect in telecommunication services and the recent divestiture and increased competitiveness of the industry. The product considered is the right to access the network. The utility of a consumer from having access to a network depends on the network's quality, defined by the number of other local and long-distance consumers which can be reached. Network services are provided in two layers; On the lower layer consumers within a local access and transport area (LATA) are connected to a central office which provides the basic switching facility for local telecommunication. On the upper layer, LATAs are connected together by an interLATA carrier, to enable long distance communication from different localities.It is shown that relative to the choices of an unconstrained monopolist, larger networks at both layers may be obtained by imposing quality controls, while price controls may have the opposite effect. A divestiture policy in which all local carriers are connected to a single long distance carrier is likely to reduce the quality of services at both layers. Introducing competition among long-distance carriers further reduces the quality of long distances services but may improve the local service.     

Smart cities within world city networks

A substantiated definition of smart cities is urgently required. In this note, we explore the crossover between smart city and world city network literature. We argue that this crossover can contribute to the theoretical and empirical development of smart city literature. The results show that indeed, besides territorial measures, network measures, e.g. indegree and inward distance, are important in explaining the smartness of cities. Based on this, we recommend that smart cities include city network characteristics in future planning.     

Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes

In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters’ choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogeneous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47–0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic ‘trap’.     

Minority voting and long-term decisions

In this paper we propose minority voting as a scheme that can partially protect individuals from the risk of repeated exploitation. We consider a committee that meets twice to decide about projects including a first-period project that may have long-lasting impact. In the first period, a simple open majority voting scheme takes place. Voting splits the committee into three groups: voting winners, voting losers, and absentees. Under minority voting, only voting losers retain their voting rights in the second period. We show that as soon as absolute risk aversion exceeds a threshold value, minority voting is superior to repeated application of the simple majority rule.     

京津冀区域铁路交通网络结构评价

在区域一体化背景下,将城市空间分析法和社会网络分析法应用于区域铁路交通网络研究,对了解区域中各重要节点交通特征、加强区域间合作和优化区域铁路交通规划有着重要的参考价值。以目前京津冀区域铁路交通城市节点间铁路距离里程为依据,借助空间句法模型指标评价京津冀区域铁路网络规划的合理性;以区域内城际间列车联结次数为依据,借助社会网络分析法,评价城市节点间社会联系的密切度。结论包括:①空间句法指标值中,京津冀都市圈铁路网连接度平均水平为3,控制值均值为1.06,平均深度值高于50的城市节点占85%,说明铁路交通轴线具备较强控制力和联动性。其中北京、天津、廊坊、保定等城市节点平均深度值相对较小,便捷程度相对较好;②社会网络分析均表明京津冀区域铁路网络结构呈现以北京、天津、石家庄为核心,以唐山、秦皇岛为次核心,其他城市节点为第三梯队的格局。京津冀铁路出行网络总体联系密度为0.673,说明京津冀区域各节点铁路出行线路联系比较密切;③京津冀区域铁路网整体规划现状和连接格局、联系水平等与各城市经济发展基本保持相关性和一致性。在城市铁路网络规划与加强联系的过程中,应考虑各城市产业特征,进一步统筹产业发展与铁路网络布局的关系,以相互促进,协调发展。     

高等级公路网建设对区域可达性的影响--以江苏省为例

从可达性的概念、度量方式两方面回顾了近期可达性研究领域的进展,并提出相对可达性的概念。以江苏省为例,分析了自1993年以来经济发达省份高等级公路网络的演化及由此引起的省内通达性空间格局的变化,对各地级市在路网中的地位做出评价,针对高等级公路网络现状中存在的问题提出合理化建议。     

Bandwagons and Momentum in Sequential Voting

In this paper I show that an equilibrium exists to the sequential voting game in which a bandwagon begins with probability 1. These bandwagons are driven by a combination of beliefs and the desire of voters to vote for the winning candidate. Significantly, in this equilibrium the pivot probability for each voter is non-zero, even in an infinite population. Consequently, the bandwagons do not always start after one (or at most two) favourable decisions (as do economic cascades) and varying levels of informative voting are observed, consistent with observations from sequential voting in U.S. presidential primaries. Further, voters are exposed to counterintuitive incentives, referred to as "buyers' remorse", that have been attributed to real primary voters.
I also derive equilibrium behaviour in this environment when voting is simultaneous and compare the quality of information aggregation within each mechanism. I relate the conclusions to U.S. presidential primaries and find they are consistent with a common conclusion about the front-loading of the primary process: that in tight elections (with no front-runner) simultaneous voting is preferred, whereas in lopsided elections sequential voting is preferred. The superior performance of sequential voting in lopsided races is precisely because bandwagons occur.     

世界互联网城市网络的可达性与等级体系

根据2008年全球互联网地图,利用网络分析方法,计算了城市节点的整体可达性和最短距离可达性,并结合总带宽和连线数据,对世界互联网城市进行了等级划分。研究表明:影响世界互联网城市节点整体可达性和最短距离可达性的关键因素略有不同;世界互联网城市等级体系是建立在原世界城市体系上的一种新等级,其受节点网络功能、世界金融中心地位、国际航空交通运量,以及GDP和综合竞争力等因素影响。     

Did political constraints bind during transition?Evidence from Czech elections, 1990–20021

Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we test whether the ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of economic reform influenced voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become winners or losers of transition. Using survey data we measure the degree to which regions were ‘not afraid’ or ‘afraid’ of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential ‘winners’ who should vote for pro‐reform parties and the latter as potential ‘losers’ who should support left‐wing parties. Using election results and economic indicators at the regional level, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro‐reform and communist parties which is driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. We find that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of voting patterns in 1990 and provide empirical evidence that political constraints bind during transition.