THE SPEED OF STRUCTURAL CONVERGENCE IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES OF NEWLY INDUSTRIALISING ECONOMIES

We seek to identify the determinants of the speed of convergence in the structures of manufacturing to their steady-state levels as developing economies become fully industrialised. Applying a two-stage sequential estimation procedure to data on three-digit manufacturing industries for 45 mostly middle-income countries, we find empirical support for the hypothesis that production efficiency is a major determinant of inter-branch output share adjustment. This finding applies to many but not all industries. One implication for latecomers is that industrial policy must aim at rapid diffusion of core technologies to facilitate the acquisition of industrial capabilities in a diversified basket of exportables.     

WELFARE GAINS OF AID INDEXATION IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES

Foreign-aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks, like a change in the terms of trade, can significantly improve the welfare of an aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms-of-trade shocks can reduce the cost of business-cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by 4% of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by 3% without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

INSTITUTIONS,BANKING DEVELOPMENT,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Does the institutional environment affect the causal relationship between banking development and economic growth? In the theoretical section of this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model where the institutional environment is captured through two indicators: judicial system efficiency and easiness of informal trade. We show that an improvement in the institutional environment has two effects. First, it intensifies the causality direction from banking to economic growth through a reduction in defaulting loans. Second, it reduces the interest rate spread. In the empirical section of the paper, we find bidirectional causality when analyzing 22 Middle Eastern and North African countries over the period 1984–2004. The first causality, which runs from banking development to economic growth, is more intense in countries with more developed institutional environment. The second causality runs from economic growth to banking and indicates that a more developed economy has a more developed banking system.     

STABILIZATION POLICY, LEARNING-BY-DOING, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper shows that fiscal policy, when used for stabilizationpurposes, can have a positive effect on the economy's growth,on human capital accumulation, and on welfare. We introducestochastic productivity shocks into a model in which productivityis augmented through learning-by-doing If future benefits oflearning-by-doing are not fully internalized by workers, thenrecessions are periods in which opportunities for acquiringexperience are foregone. We identify configurations of disturbancesand other parameters for which a countercyclical policy maximizesgrowth and welfare.     

EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NAMIBIA: A GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time‐series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi‐directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export‐led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth.     

MONEY,OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN AFRICAN ECONOMIES1

This paper examines the long‐run money‐inflation relation for 36 African countries using cross‐section and panel data analysis. The focus is on the recent claim by De Grauwe and Polan that the common finding in multi‐country studies of a strong positive link typically reflects the presence of high‐inflation countries in the sample and on Nelson's criticisms of the data and methodology employed in that study. Adjusting the De Grauwe and Polan methodology to take account of many of Nelson's criticisms, I confirm a weak long‐run relation between money growth and inflation for countries when money growth and inflation are below 10%, but a strong relation when money growth and inflation move much above that number. This result is not dependent on the inclusion of high inflation countries in the cross‐section and panel data samples.     

AN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper analyses long‐term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long‐term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F‐tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long‐run forcing relationships from public‐sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost‐benefit analyses.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH, INCOME AND HAPPINESS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

The pursuit of high economic growth is considered desirable as it generates an increase in a nation's wealth, income, employment and output. The rising income should enable consumers to purchase more goods and services, which in turn should result in enhanced utility and subjective happiness. Empirical studies suggest that higher income resulting from high rates of economic growth contribute to poverty alleviation and life satisfaction in low income countries. Higher income raises the happiness of the poor. In developed countries, higher income does not seem to "buy" higher happiness, once a threshold level of income is reached. This exploratory study seeks to examine the quantitative and qualitative sources of happiness. A higher absolute level of income is found to be significantly related to subjective happiness. Among the non-income factors, family togetherness, a good working environment and a higher level of education can contribute to making people happier. Happiness thus involves more than just economic growth and income.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH, CONVERGENCE CLUBS, AND THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT

This paper aims to show and test the existence of a povertytrap linked to the development of the banking sector. Our theoreticalmodel exhibits multiple steady state equilibria due to a reciprocalexternality between the banking sector and the real sector.Growth in the real sector causes the financial market to expand,thereby increasing banking competition and efficiency. In return,the development of the banking sector raises the net yield onsavings and enhances capital accumulation and growth. The aimof our econometric tests is to check the existence of multiplesteady states associated with financial and educational development.     

BUDGETARY POLICIES, FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS, THE STOCK MARKET, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper analyses a small open economy with overlapping generations,endogenous growth, and a risk premium on foreign debt. A balanced-budgetincrease in public consumption or a rise in government debtraises the ratio of foreign debt to domestic income and theinterest rate, but depresses economic growth. Supply-side policiesaimed at internalising production externalities boost foreignindebtedness, the interest rate, and economic growth. A higherglobal interest rate leads, if initial foreign indebtednessis not too large, to a lower foreign debt and, if a countryis dragged down by large levels of foreign debt, lower economicgrowth.