Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: An application to the uptake of electric vehicles

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector by adopting technologies such as solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles (EVs) have major implications for the capacity of electricity distribution networks, particularly at local areas with high uptake. Consumer decisions to purchase these technologies are also influenced by several complex criteria such as costs/benefits, performance, appeal/status, risk, psychographics, and demographics. This complexity motivated the development of an innovative diffusion model, incorporating features of multi-criteria analysis and choice modelling, to estimate the adoption of these technology options spatially across the landscape of heterogeneous consumers. We test the model to forecast market share of EVs through to 2030, using the vehicle stock across all 1.5 million households in Victoria, Australia. Seven financial and non-financial criteria were included and calibrated via focus groups and a large‐scale survey. Annual change of criteria values and their elasticity to adoption were incorporated. Geographical differences in uptake of EVs were primarily due to driving distance, employment status and household income, with urban areas having about three times the proportional uptake. By testing the model for a range of incentives, we demonstrate its capability to inform and evaluate policy options.     

Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model

With rising gas prices, global warming, and green thinking, all-electric vehicles are currently considered the automobile technology of the future. However, besides their advantages electric drive trains also exhibit several disadvantages. Moreover, history shows several failed attempts to establish electric vehicles. Thus, a reliable forecasting model is needed that predicts if the current trend is sustainable. We develop and empirically test a choice-based conjoint adoption model that uses individual-level preferences as a basis for prediction. Predictions are mapped to the time of the next planned purchase in order to establish the adoption process. The model extends existing research in several ways. First, no prior information, e.g., historical market data or a functional form of the adoption process, has to be integrated. Second, the model allows dynamic modifications of product specifications or competition at different points in time. Third, a no-choice option can be integrated so that a technology switch is not forced by the model itself and switching costs can be considered. The empirical results reveal different critical factors for the adoption of all-electric vehicles, such as purchase price, range, timing of the market entry, or environmental evolution, which could lead to a solid base of consumers preferring this option.     

Vehicle-to-grid systems for sustainable development: An integrated energy analysis

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems represent a means by which power capacity in parked vehicles can be used to generate electricity for the grid. This paper describes the first detailed and global analysis of the potential of V2G technologies over the long-term (to 2100) using a comprehensive energy-systems model. In this analysis we explore the potential for V2G systems to supply a number of electricity submarkets and concomitantly accelerate the diffusion of advanced vehicle technologies, including hybrid-electric and fuel cell drivetrains. We also examine the potential impact of V2G on the global energy system, particularly in terms of investment in conventional capacity, and the possible role of V2G-enabled vehicles in increasing the market penetration of renewable electricity generation technologies. Importantly, however, V2G technologies represent a paradigm shift in how the energy and mobility markets are related, and a number of possible barriers to the widespread adoption of this technology are also discussed.     

Conditional-logit Bayes estimators for consumer valuation of electric vehicle driving range

Range anxiety – consumers’ concerns about limited driving range – is generally considered an important barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles. If consumers cannot overcome these fears it is unlikely that they will consider purchasing an electric car. Hence, a successful introduction of low emission vehicles in the market requires a full understanding of consumer valuation of driving range. By analyzing experimental data on vehicle purchase decisions in California, I derive and study the statistical behavior of Bayes estimates that summarize consumer concerns toward limited driving range. These estimates are superior to marginal utilities as parameters of interest in a discrete demand model of vehicle choice. One of the empirical results is the posterior distribution of the willingness to pay for electric vehicles with improved batteries offering better driving range. Credible intervals for this willingness to pay, as well as both parametric and nonparametric heterogeneity distributions, are also analyzed.     

Forecasting the electric transformation in transportation: the role of battery technology performance

In an effort to encourage consumers to purchase electric vehicles (EVs), the government has been funding battery research to solve some of these problems. This paper presents a study using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to forecast future battery performance characteristics. The results were compared against the performance goals established by the US Department of Energy (DOE). We find that the foreseen progress of EV battery performance will be insufficient to meet the DOE projected goals for the range that EVs can travel before running out of power. Therefore, a new battery technology must be developed because the incremental improvements in current battery technologies leave EVs considerably short of the DOE performance specification for longer trip ranges.     

An integer-based blackman innovation index: Hypothesis,evidence, and implications

Blackman, Seligman, and Sogliero [4] factor analyzed U.S. industrial data on innovation-related variables and defined an “innovation index.” This index was strongly correlated with a parameter which measures the propensity of an industrial sector toward adoption of new technology within the classic Mansfield market substitution model [7].Extension of their analysis to cover a 22-year period, along with consideration of certain methodological issues, suggests that the index values for industries in their data base are not free to vary continuously. Instead, the innovation index for each of the industries can be linked with some fundamental value which lies at an integral number of units (i.e., 0, 1, 2, or 3) above an absolute zero. Such an integer structure may signal the existence of fundamental, quantitative relationships between the behaviors of diverse sectors toward innovation— including both research and development effort and adoption of new technology. Understanding such relationships should prove relevant both to efforts to enhance innovation in the private sector and to evaluating proposals for selective emphasis on particular sectors as part of any national “industrial policy.”     

Benefit entitlement and unemployment duration: The role of policy endogeneity

The potential duration of benefits is generally viewed as an important determinant of unemployment duration. This paper evaluates a unique policy change that prolonged entitlement to regular unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to a maximum of 209 weeks for elderly individuals in certain regions of Austria. In the evaluation, we explicitly account for the fact that the program was an endogenous policy response to deteriorating labor market conditions for older workers in certain regions and sectors. The main results are: (i) REBP reduced the transition rate to jobs by 17%; (ii) accounting for endogenous policy adoption is important and quantitatively significant.     

Optimal freeware quality in the presence of network externalities: an evolutionary game theoretical approach

New software products often face difficulty in achieving market penetration. A potential remedy is to offer a freeware version of the software to encourage initial adoption and establish a larger user base for the software, thereby increasing the commercial version's value to adopters in future periods. However, to avoid complete cannibalization of the commercial version, the freeware version's quality must be sufficiently low and the price of the commercial version must not be too high. We model the effect of these two decision variables, price and freeware quality, on the adoption of software using static and evolutionary game theory.     

美国电动汽车的发展现状及目标

美国总统奥巴马在2011年国情咨文中提出了在2015年前让100万辆电动汽车上路的电动汽车发展目标。就实现这一目标而言,电动汽车技术、产能方面可能并不是其主要制约因素,而政府的激励政策才是影响电动汽车大规模普及的重要推动力。在市场方面,早期消费者的使用体验、基础设施和石油价格等因素,将对消费者的购买积极性产生重要影响。     

How much are electric vehicles driven?

The prospect for electric vehicles as a climate change solution hinges on their ability to reduce gasoline consumption. But this depends on how many miles electric vehicles are driven and on how many miles would have otherwise been driven in gasoline-powered vehicles. Using newly-available U.S. nationally representative data, this paper finds that electric vehicles are driven considerably fewer miles per year on average than gasoline-powered vehicles. The difference is highly statistically significant and holds for both all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, for both single- and multiple-vehicle households, and both inside and outside California. The paper discusses potential explanations and policy implications. Overall, the evidence suggests that today’s electric vehicles imply smaller environmental benefits than previously believed.     

E-commerce transactions,the installed base of credit cards,and the potential mobile E-commerce adoption

Mobile e-commerce (m-commerce) relaxes consumers’ temporal and geographic purchasing constraints and encourage the establishment of omnichannel markets. It is often argued that rapid increase in smartphone penetration is the primary driver of m-commerce adoption, whereas others contend that early adoption of m-commerce applications are mostly by “relatively heavy” Internet commerce users. Brynjolfsson et al. (2013) argue that rapid increase in smartphone penetration is the primary driver of m-commerce adoption, whereas Einav et al. (2014) contend that early adoption of m-commerce applications are mostly by ‘relatively heavy’ Internet commerce users. This article explores strength of the influences within a nested multiple-service framework, where the reduced-form econometric analysis allows for interdependency between m-commerce and e-commerce services, and the installed base of credit cards. The results reveal a complex situation in which credit cards facilitate e-commerce services, whereas m-commerce adoptions are driven by prior e-commerce and online transaction activity. Also, higher respondent incomes are negatively associated with proposed m-commerce adoption. Surprisingly, privacy concerns do not affect proposed adoption independently; however, an interaction term suggests privacy remains an adoption barrier for the older persons.     

Social influence and consumer preference formation for pro-environmental technology: The case of a U.K. workplace electric-vehicle study

We investigate the roles of social influence in the formation of consumer perceptions and preferences for pro-environmental technologies, using the example of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The context was a technology-based workplace in the U.K. with around 500 members of staff, 57 of whom took part in a BEV experience project in 2010. Several months later, we recruited a diverse sample of 21 staff to complete semi-structured interviews. Following a multi-method approach, we elicited details about their perceptions and valuation of BEVs, experiences with BEVs, and social interactions relating to BEVs. Participants reported a wide variety of perceptions of BEV attributes, including environmental benefits and functional drawbacks. The majority of participants indicated that their BEV perceptions were “highly influenced” by at least one social interaction. We use the reflexive layers of influence conceptual framework to categorize social influence according to three processes: diffusion, the sharing of BEV-related information; translation, the discussion of uncertain BEV benefits and drawbacks; and reflexivity, the relating of BEV technology to self-concept. Findings suggest that participant perceptions change in part through social negotiation of meaning, lifestyle and identity. Neglect of social influence processes will underestimate the potential for shifts in consumer preferences regarding emerging pro-environmental technologies.     

Social norms and emission tax multiple equilibria in adopting pollution abatement device

The effect of social norm is addressed in an adoption game, where an emission tax is used to motivate oligopolistic firms to adopt a pollution abatement device. We ask if the intrinsic motivation from social norm alone can motivate firms to participate in adoption. The multiple equilibria in the adoption game indicates two possibilities: this intrinsic motivation may or may not enhance adoption. The existing literature on equilibrium selection further suggests that the most likely outcome is that it cannot enhance adoption. Next, by keeping the assumption of symmetry, we show that if cooperation is an option for firms, then the presence of two coordination effects (social norm on adoption and cooperation benefits on output) will result in the existence of asymmetric adoptions.     

A Modest Proposal for a Two‐Sided Market Clearing Institution under Asymmetric Supply Constraints with Skewed Pricing: The Market for Adoption and Abortion in the United States

This paper presents a theoretical model matching the potential supply of terminated pregnancies with the total demand for children within certain modeling constraints. First, the demand and supply of pregnancies should be studied within the theoretical framework of a market with economic incentives. Second, a theoretical model for the demand for abortion must incorporate the total market for children, which implies the market for pregnancy, abortion, and adoption. Third, there exist in the overall market for procreative goods and services certain unique characteristics that need to be carefully considered. Producers and suppliers within the procreative goods and services market have radically different price and cost elasticity functions and unique production asymmetries that create a potential net benefit for buyer and seller alike. The market for abortion and adoption, while seemingly related and similar, suffer from a fundamental disconnect, preventing a simple exchange of goods and services: abortion implies potential supply that does not flow to potential consumersthose seeking to adopt. Studying this market inefficiency will benefit from a two‐sided market analysis used in situations where an intermediary business must attract both producers and suppliers. There are two key findings. First, I find that the producer decision to supply the good depends primarily on exogenous preference formation and not on consumer‐provided incentives. Second, I find that the market would benefit from legal framework for a market clearing institution using the market for real estate as the blueprint.     

Dynamics of social factors in technological substitutions

Diffusion models of technological innovations are often based on an epidemic structure which has a good fit to historical data but whose communication assumptions lack explanatory power. They assume a simplified decision process, uniform decision criteria across adopters categories, and a fully interconnected social structure. The objective of this paper is to show that the dynamics of social factors during technological substitutions have significant effects on substitution patterns. The success of a paradigmatic shift is not only a function of technological characteristics but also depends on change agents and many social dynamics. Such complexity requires analysis at several levels of granularity. We start with cognitive processes at the individual level using concepts from cognitive psychology and decision making under uncertainty and then move to interpersonal communications at the aggregate social level. We show that population heterogeneity generates different decision criteria and a social topology which greatly affect perceptions and the formation of expectations. The structure of interpersonal networks also explains how the relevance and credibility of information impact the critical mass dynamics of technology adoption. A more complete model accounting for social interactions provides a useful framework for understanding complex substitution patterns and reducing the risk of misreading the market.     

Competition vs. collaboration in the generation and adoption of a sequence of new technologies: a game theory approach

The study provides a game theoretic exploration of firms’ decisions on whether to compete or collaborate in the generation and adoption of a sequence of new technologies. Different from models proposed by previous studies, which concentrates on process innovation and a two-strategy set (innovation or do nothing), the present game theory model emphasises product innovation and a three-strategy set (innovation, collaboration, or do nothing). The study makes three contributions. The proposed game theory model extends current understanding of the impacts of collaboration possibilities and collaboration cost in a dynamic game theory. Further, the model clarifies the impact of transaction costs on the outcome. Finally, the study finds that the relationship between collaboration costs is not univariate, but depends on the market type and various market characteristics, such as technology gap, technology level, the product substitution index, transaction costs, and the discount rate of price sensitiveness.     

Norm-Based Trade Union Membership: Evidence for Germany

Abstract. In the absence of closed shops and discriminatory wage policies, union membership can be explained by the existence of social norms. We describe a model, incorporating institutional features of the German labour market, which explicitly allows for social custom effects in the determination of union membership. Using panel data for Germany, we find evidence for according effects which restrict free‐riding. The impact of social norms tends to increase with net union density. Hence, observed reductions in the demand for union membership can weaken the impact of a norm and accentuate the free‐rider problem.     

Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility

Within the Dutch transition policy framework, the transition to hydrogen-based transport is seen as a promising option towards a sustainable transport system. One aspect of such transition processes that is emphasized in transition management is learning about user behaviour and preferences. However, while earlier research on sustainable mobility acknowledges the importance of refuelling infrastructure, the question of how to unroll such an infrastructure and the role of user practices and user behaviour largely remains unanswered. In this paper we present an agent-based model to study the process of development from niche to market for hydrogen vehicles. We thereby focus on the role of users in this process and support our model by empirical data. Within this model the effects of different strategies for hydrogen infrastructure development on hydrogen vehicle fleet penetration are studied. More specifically, diffusion patterns for hydrogen vehicles are created through the interactions of consumers, refuelling stations and technological learning. The main result is that social network effects do influence the technological trajectory of hydrogen vehicles and thus should be taken into account by infrastructure developers and policymakers.     

社会地位、非期望效用函数、资产定价和经济增长

本文利用非期望偏好结构 ,讨论消费和资产收益的时间序列行为。在这种递归偏好结构中 ,投资者积累财富不仅仅为了消费 ,也为了财富所带来的社会地位 ,我们研究这一假设对消费、投资组合策略、证券市场价格以及经济增长的影响 ,并利用所得到的定价方程讨论风险溢金问题。     

DRAMs, fiber and energy compared with three models of market penetration

When a new technology is introduced in the market, this technology generally follows an S-shaped curve, especially if measured on a relative (market share) basis. Marchetti and Nakicenovic and Norton and Bass have modeled the multivariant case of various technologies introduced at different times. A new, simple and flexible model has been proposed based on potential penetration. Potential penetration is penetration on the assumption that no other new technology will enter the market. In a stable competitive environment, potential penetration curves are typically positively sloped S-curves. The new model gives a good fit in markets with a limited number of competitors, which are capable of totally cannibalizing previous generations of technologies. It also fits well with markets with many competitors in a competitive equilibrium situation. Examples are the Dynamic Random Access Memory chips (DRAMs), fiber and energy market. The new model features fewer variables compared with existing models and can readily be adapted to technological processes with time varying parameters, which is particularly important in volatile competitive markets.