Privatization as an agency problem: Auctions versus private negotiations

This paper investigates the design of privatization mechanisms in emerging market economies characterized by political constraints that limit the set of viable privatization options. Our objective is to explain the striking diversity of mechanisms observed in practice and the frequent use of an apparently sub-optimal privatization mechanism: private negotiations.     

Auctions versus bookbuilding: The effects of IPO regulation in Japan

We analyze a regulatory change in the Japanese IPO market that created an abrupt shift from hybrid price-discriminatory auctions to bookbuilding. We find that bookbuilding leads to higher underpricing than hybrid price-discriminatory auctions. Furthermore, we find evidence that price accuracy tends to be higher for auctions than for bookbuilding. The results hold under a variety of OLS specifications and with regression discontinuity designs exploiting the abrupt change of the regulation.     

Auctions vs. negotiations in takeovers with initial stakes

Takeover attempts from raiders with prior stakes in the target company (toeholds) are frequent in the market for corporate control. In this context, we propose a simple and realistic selling mechanism with an agenda of exclusive negotiations that discriminates against larger-toehold raiders. When a reserve price is absent, it is shown that this negotiation procedure outperforms, in terms of expected target price, conventional auctions frequently used to model takeover battles. However, when standard auctions can be improved with an optimal reserve price, our results indicate that this target price superiority is sensitive to the degree of toehold asymmetry.     

Procurement under public scrutiny: auctions versus negotiations

We compare two commonly used mechanisms in public procurement: auctions and negotiations. The execution of the procurement mechanism is delegated to an agent of the buyer. The agent has private information about the buyer's preferences and may collude with one of the sellers. We provide a general characterization of both mechanisms based on public scrutiny requirements and show—contrary to conventional wisdom—that an intransparent negotiation always yields higher social surplus than a transparent auction. Moreover, there exists a lower bound on the number of sellers such that the negotiation also generates a higher buyer surplus.     

Auctions versus book-built IPOs in Japan: A comparison of aftermarket volatility

In a recent theoretical paper, Sherman [Sherman, A.E., 2005, Global trends in IPO methods: Book building versus auctions with endogenous entry, Journal of Financial Economics 78, 615–649.] proposes that: “If book building leads to greater expected underpricing relative to uniform price or discriminatory auctions, then it should also lead to less volatility in aftermarket trading…”. In this paper, we study a Japanese sample and find that book-built IPOs exhibit greater underpricing and higher aftermarket volatility compared to price-discriminatory auctions. Aftermarket volatility wanes with seasoning in both sub-samples, but the book-built volatility levels are persistently higher than those for auctions for as long as one year after the IPO issue date.     

Signaling and Takeover Deterrence with Stock Repurchases: Dutch Auctions versus Fixed Price Tender Offers

This article presents a model of repurchase tender offers in which firms choose between the Dutch auction method and the fixed price method. Dutch auction repurchases are more effective takeover deterrents, while fixed price repurchases are more effective signals of undervaluation. The model yields empirical implications regarding price effects of repurchases, likelihood of takeover, managerial compensation, and cross-sectional differences in the elasticity of the supply curve for shares.     

The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation

We study the effects of securitization on renegotiation of distressed residential mortgages over the current financial crisis. Unlike prior studies, we employ unique data that directly observe lender renegotiation actions and cover more than 60% of the U.S. mortgage market. Exploiting within-servicer variation in these data, we find that bank-held loans are 26–36% more likely to be renegotiated than comparable securitized mortgages (4.2–5.7% in absolute terms). Also, modifications of bank-held loans are more efficient: conditional on a modification, bank-held loans have 9% lower post-modification default rates (3.5% in absolute terms). Our findings support the view that frictions introduced by securitization create a significant challenge to effective renegotiation of residential loans. We also provide evidence supporting the affordability focus of recent policy actions, such as the Home Affordability Modification Program.     

Strategic Behavior and Underpricing in Uniform Price Auctions: Evidence from Finnish Treasury Auctions

We contribute to the debate on the optimal design of multiunit auctions by developing and testing robust implications of the leading theory of uniform price auctions on the bid distributions submitted by individual bidders. The theory, which emphasizes market power, has little support in a data set of Finnish Treasury auctions. A reason may be that the Treasury acts strategically by determining supply after observing bids, apparently treating the auctions as a repeated game between itself and primary dealers. Bidder behavior and underpricing react to the volatility of bond returns in a way that suggests bidders adjust for the winner's curse.     

Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis

We examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers, focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan. Conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent, we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank-held loans when compared to similar securitized loans: across various specifications and origination vintages, the foreclosure rate of delinquent bank-held loans is 3% to 7% lower in absolute terms (13% to 32% in relative terms). There is a substantial heterogeneity in these effects with large effects among borrowers with better credit quality and small effects among lower quality borrowers. A quasi-experiment that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in securitization status of a delinquent loan confirms these results.     

Optimal risk sharing through renegotiation of simple contracts

We frequently observe that contracts do not include all of the contingencies that would seem to be necessary for optimal risk sharing between the parties to the contract. One reason may be that the possibility of renegotiation makes the contract more contingent than it appears. A simple contracting problem is used to show how even a simple contract may achieve optimal risk sharing if new information arrives slowly relatively to the speed of renegotiation.     

Auctions of divisible goods: on the rationale for the treasury experiment

We compare a sealed-bid uniform-price auction (the Treasury'sexperimental format) with a sealed bid discriminatory auction(the Treasury's format heretofore), assuming the good is perfectlydivisible. We show that the auction theory that prompted theexperiment, which assumes single-unit demands, does not adequatelydescribe the bidding game for Treasury securities. Collusivestrategies are self-enforcing in uniform-price divisible-goodauctions. In these equilibria, the seller's expected revenueis lower than in equilibria of discriminatory auctions.     

Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks

Calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods for a neoclassical stochastic growth model are applied to make the case that the identification of key parameters, rather than quantitative methodologies per se, is responsible for empirical findings. For concreteness, the model is used to measure the contributions of technology shocks to the business cycle fluctuations of hours worked and output. Along the way, new insights are provided in the parameter identification associated with likelihood-based estimation, the sensitivity of likelihood-based estimation to the choice of structural shocks is assessed, and Bayesian model averaging is used to aggregate findings obtained from different DSGE model specifications.     

Inside debt renegotiation: Optimal debt reduction,timing, and the number of rounds

This paper develops a model of debt renegotiation in a structural framework that accounts for taxes, bankruptcy costs and renegotiation costs. To our knowledge, all the previous work on debt renegotiation implies an infinite number of renegotiations. This feature preempts the analysis of the optimal number of renegotiations. We address this drawback by incorporating fixed renegotiation costs in a model of multiple renegotiations, hence obtaining a small finite number of renegotiations. Simple analytical formulae are derived for debt and equity, as well as implicit formulae for the coupon reduction, as a result of a backward recursive technique. The results show that the optimal number of renegotiations, the size and the dynamics of the coupon reductions depend critically on the bargaining power of the claimants. Testable empirical implications regarding multiple costly renegotiations are drawn.     

Merger negotiations and the toehold puzzle

The substantial control premium typically observed in corporate takeovers makes a compelling case for acquiring target shares (a toehold) in the market prior to launching a bid. Moreover, auction theory suggests that toehold bidding may yield a competitive advantage over rival bidders. Nevertheless, with a sample exceeding 10,000 initial control bids for US public targets, we show that toehold bidding has declined steadily since the early 1980s and is now surprisingly rare. At the same time, the average toehold is large when it occurs (20%), and toeholds are the norm in hostile bids. To explain these puzzling observations, we develop and test a two-stage takeover model where attempted merger negotiations are followed by open auction. With optimal bidding, a toehold imposes a cost on target management, causing some targets to (rationally) reject merger negotiations. Optimal toeholds are therefore either zero (to avoid rejection costs) or greater than a threshold (so that toehold benefits offset rejection costs). The toehold threshold estimate averages 9% across initial bidders, reflecting in part the bidder's opportunity loss of a merger termination agreement. In the presence of market liquidity costs, a threshold of this size may well induce a broad range of bidders to select zero toehold. As predicted, the probability of toehold bidding decreases, and the toehold size increases, with the threshold estimate. The model also predicts a relatively high frequency of toehold bidding in hostile bids, as observed. Overall, our test results are consistent with rational bidder behavior with respect to the toehold decision.     

The determinants of the duration of commercial bank debt renegotiation for sovereigns

This paper examines the duration of commercial bank debt reschedulings for sovereigns. We show that the length of the first part of the rescheduling process, in which major creditor banks and the debtor country participate, is significantly affected by only the scale of rescheduling. However, the length of the second part of the process, where all the creditor banks in the syndicate are involved, is significantly affected by maturity, debt/GNP, debt/exports, GNP growth during the renegotiation process, and the presence of exit bonds and early participation fees. We also find that the time elapsed significantly increases the instantaneous probability of completion of the first part of the process.     

The certification value of private debt renegotiation and the design of financial contracts: Empirical evidence from Europe

By using a sample of bank loan renegotiations by European firms, I show that the renegotiation of financial contracts bears a certification value, while deeply changing the contractual features of the loan over time, to the benefit of shareholders. I find that amendments to financial covenants and to loan amounts increase the cumulative abnormal returns of a borrowing firm by 10–15%. Early and less frequent renegotiations of bilateral loans with short maturities also imply a positive stock market reaction. Amendments signaling the early accrual of new and positive information allow increasing firm value.     

Repo Auctions and the Market for Liquidity

What is the nature of imperfections in the market for liquidity? Studying bidder level data from European Central Bank (ECB) repo auctions, we find that this market appears to be informationally efficient in the sense that participants do not have private information about future short‐term rates. However, auction allocations affect banks' subsequent behavior in a way that is consistent with a degree of allocational and operational inefficiency. Also, large bidders appear to have better access to the interbank market than small ones. Finally, the evidence suggests that the ECB uses collateral haircuts that do not equilibrate opportunity costs.     

Identifying Fraud in Online Auctions: A Case Study

According to the FBI (IC3, 2011), losses as a result of auto‐auction fraud exceeded $8.2 million dollars in 2011. How can one detect deception in online auction transactions? The authors use a comprehensive case to teach students about deception detection processes, detection cues, and the e‐commerce environment. Students are challenged to make a professional judgment about whether the transaction under consideration is an attempt to deceive. The case is based on a real‐life situation and provides a valuable exercise for business students, educating them in the reality of online auction markets and developing their critical thinking skills. The case may be used with undergraduate accounting majors in Accounting Information Systems classes and with graduate students in an e‐commerce course either as an in‐class assignment or as a term project. Students provided favorable responses as to the value of the case.