Estimating the benefits and costs of forming business partnerships

I estimate a matching model of business-partnership formation to quantify the relative importance of productivity gains, financing gains, and the coordination failure of effort provision (moral hazard) among partners. Productivity gains account for 61% of the gain from the observed partnerships. For partners in the first quartile of the wealth distribution, however, financing accounts for 93% of the gain. The cost of moral hazard corresponds to 42% of the entire gain from partnerships. A loan policy specifically targeting partnerships is less effective in improving welfare than a conventional loan policy that provides loans to individual entrepreneurs.     

Effective derivative hedging and initial public offering long‐run performance

We investigate the role of corporate currency risk management through the use of financial derivatives in influencing the long‐run performance of a sample of Australian resources companies. We find that derivative users generally outperformed nonderivative users in the 5‐year period following listing. Effective derivative users consistently outperformed the nonhedgers. Furthermore, within the population of derivative users, effective derivative users tended to perform better than ineffective hedgers. Our results indicate that effective financial risk management plays a role in long‐run IPO performance.     

Demand for nondurable goods: a shortcut to estimating long‐run price elasticities

When consumers stockpile, static demand models overestimate long‐term price responses. This article presents a dynamic model of demand with consumer inventories and proposes a shortcut to estimate the long‐run price elasticities without having to solve the dynamic program. Using French data on food purchases, I find elasticities consistent with those that result from the full‐blown estimations found in the literature.     

Risk allocation and the costs and benefits of public‐‐private partnerships

We study the agency costs of delegated public service provision, focusing on the link between organizational forms and uncertainty at project implementation. We consider a dynamic multitask moral hazard environment where the mapping between effort and performance is ex ante uncertain but new information may arise during operations. Our analysis highlights the costs and benefits that bundling planning and implementation—as under public‐‐private partnerships—can bring in terms of project design and operational costs under various scenarios, possibly allowing for asymmetric information, moral hazard and renegotiation. It also shows that relying on private finance enhances the benefits of bundling only if lenders have enough expertise to assess project risks.     

Underwriter reputation,earnings management and the long‐run performance of initial public offerings

This study contributes to the extant literature on the nature of earnings management surrounding initial public offerings (IPOs) by investigating the role of underwriter reputation. We argue that prestigious underwriters will protect their reputation by carefully monitoring and certifying financial information on IPO firms, thereby limiting any potential earnings manipulation. As a result, those IPO firms that are associated with more prestigious underwriters are likely to exhibit substantially less‐aggressive earnings management. Conversely, we find the existence of a negative relationship between earnings management and the post‐offer performance of an IPO firm’s stocks only for those firms associated with less‐prestigious underwriters.     

An investigation of the short‐ and long‐run relations between executive cash bonus payments and firm financial performance: a pitch

This letter is a discussion of the application of the pitch template developed by Faff (2015) to a financial accounting research topic. The pitch template focuses ideas into key areas, giving clear and concise direction in planning and structuring the research idea. In this instance, the template is used in a nonlinear manner to develop a research proposal to investigate the relation between cash bonus payments and firm financial performance.     

Estimating a continuous hedonic‐choice model with an application to demand for soft drinks

Using micro‐level scanner data, I study empirically the consumer demand for soft drinks, which is characterized by multiple‐product, multiple‐unit purchasing behavior. I develop a continuous hedonic‐choice model to investigate how consumers choose the best basket of products to satisfy various needs. My model's embedded‐characteristics approach both helps to reduce the dimensionality problem in model estimation and generates flexible substitution patterns. Hence, the model is useful in application to data with many product choices that are correlated with each other at the individual level. The estimation results show that interesting substitutability and even a form of complementarity exist among soft drinks.     

Estimating dynamic games of oligopolistic competition: an experimental investigation

We evaluate standard assumptions in the estimation of dynamic oligopoly models with laboratory data. Using an entry/exit game, we estimate structural parameters under the assumption that the data are generated by a Markov-perfect equilibrium and subsequently predict counterfactual behavior. If behavior was collusive, however, the assumption would be violated and one would mispredict counterfactuals. The laboratory allows us to compare predicted behavior to true counterfactuals implemented as treatments. Our main finding is that prediction errors due to collusion are modest in size. We also document a different deviation from equilibrium behavior (inertia) that can lead to large prediction errors.     

Does market misvaluation help explain share market long‐run underperformance following a seasoned equity issue?

We examine the relation between pre‐seasoned equity offering (SEO) announcement date misvaluation and long‐run post‐SEO performance for a large sample of Australian SEOs made between 1993 and 2001. Our study is motivated by inconsistent findings across countries with respect to the SEO long‐run underperformance anomaly first documented in the USA, inconclusive findings with respect to the hypothesis that managers exploit market misvaluation when timing equity issues, and a recent Australian Stock Exchange proposal to loosen SEO regulation. We find SEO firms underperform common share market benchmarks for up to 5 years after the announcement. Using a residual income valuation method, we show that this underperformance is related to pre‐announcement date misvaluation. An unexpected result is that underperformance and misvaluation are more severe for private placements than rights issues. Institutional factors unique to the Australian setting, particularly the large number of smaller loss‐making firms among private placement issuers, appear to explain the poorer performance of placement firms. Our results are robust to various measurement methods and assumptions, and demonstrate the importance of researching SEO performance in alternative institutional settings.     

Political costs and an intraperiod accounting choice for export tax credits

This study examines the effects of political and debt contracting costs on an intraperiod accounting choice. Export tax credits that New Zealand companies receive may be credited to sales ot to income tax expense. Compared to the credit to sales method, the tax reduction method reduces a company's reported tax rate and interest coverage ratio, both of which could have adverse economic consequences. The results indicate the credit to sales method is preferred by large companies that attract political scrutiny because of their low tax rates. The level of a firm's interest coverage is also related to that accounting choice.     

Transaction costs in an illiquid order‐driven market

Transaction costs in many international equity markets are much larger than those in the USA. This raises questions such as what trade size these reported trading costs relate to and whether investors can reduce trading costs by timing their trades. We show, using data from the order‐driven New Zealand market, that transaction costs are frequently lower for larger trades, particularly in small stocks, and investors are able to reduce costs by timing their transactions. While investors who require immediate execution incur transaction costs that are much higher than reported average costs, patient investors can trade at much better rates.     

Canadian Provincial Budget Outcomes: A Long–run and Short–run Perspective

This paper tests a theory of public budgeting as a long–run and short–run process. In this model, political decision makers strive to achieve budgetary balance over the long–run but are constrained in the short–run and follow incremental decision–making. First, the budget equilibrium theory is elaborated upon and is used to explain the relationship between revenues, expenditures, and debt along with control variables one being provincial general elections. Second, the interaction between these variables is tested with a vector error correction model for each of the Canadian provinces using annual data between 1961 and 2000. The results show that in the long–run the driving force of provincial budgeting was expenditure control initiatives in seven of the ten provinces. In the short–run, incrementalism occurred in all of the provinces and a political business cycle was evident in six provinces.     

Sunk costs and sunk benefits: A re-examination of re-investment decisions

Prior experimental studies supporting the prospect theory explanation of the sunk-cost effect manipulate the framing of the initial investment, describing it either in neutral terms or as a prior loss. This paper subjects the prospect theory explanation to further examination, but takes an alternative experimental approach based on the differential risk taking behaviour predicted by prospect theory’s S-shaped value function. The experiments manipulate whether an initial investment produces a sunk cost (prior loss) or a sunk benefit (prior gain) and investigate the impact of this on the likelihood of authorising an incremental investment held constant across treatment conditions. To ensure the results are robust to the type of incremental investment, two experiments are conducted across which the outcomes of the incremental investment are manipulated to produce poor or good investment opportunities. In all cases the results fail to support a higher likelihood of authorising the incremental investment following a sunk cost than a sunk benefit. In isolation, therefore, prospect theory is unable to explain fully the sunk-cost effect.     

The costs and benefits of short sale disclosure

In this study, we examine the impact of a market-wide mandatory disclosure policy on short selling on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We find that average short selling slightly declined while investors’ shorting strategies changed significantly in response to the disclosure. Previously highly shorted stocks were shorted less and shorting activity shifted toward smaller and riskier stocks, suggesting that retail investors became the more likely short sellers. Short sales became more trend-chasing, prices became less informative, and short-term price volatility increased. Overall, the pricing efficiency benefits of short selling declined after the mandatory disclosure policy.     

Measuring the Cost‐Effectiveness of an R&D Tax Credit for the UK

This paper investigates the economic impact of the government's proposed new UK R&D tax credit. We measure the benefit of the credit by the effect on value added in the short and long runs. This is simulated from existing econometric estimates of the tax‐price elasticity of research and development (R&D) and the effect of R&D on productivity. For the latter, we allow R&D to have an effect on technology transfer (catching up with the technological frontier) as well as innovation (pushing the frontier forward). We then compare the increase in value added to the likely exchequer costs of the programme under a number of scenarios. In the long run, the increase in GDP far outweighs the costs of the tax credit. The short‐run effect is far smaller, with value added only exceeding cost if R&D grows at or below the rate of inflation.     

Estimating and validating a firm‐year‐specific measure of conservatism: Australian evidence

We provide new evidence on the asymmetric timeliness with which economic gains and losses are recognized in Australian financial reporting (i.e. conservatism), as well as some of the factors associated with variation in conservatism. We first derive, and then estimate and subsequently validate, a firm‐year‐specific measure of conservatism (C_Score) in the manner suggested by Khan and Watts (2007) . Our results indicate that conservatism is a pervasive feature of the Australian financial reporting environment. Conservatism is positively associated with stock return volatility, investment cycle length and prior period conservatism, and it is negatively associated with firm age, firm size and leverage. The results are an encouraging start for research into the causes and consequences of conservatism in Australian financial reporting.     

The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports

This study examines the economic costs and benefits to the UK of a 50 per cent cut in UK defence exports from the average level of 1998 and 1999. The net impact on the government budget is estimated to be an ongoing loss of between around £40 million and £100 million a year: around 0.2–0.4 per cent of the total UK defence budget. In addition, there is estimated to be a one‐off net adjustment cost, spread over five years, of between £0.9 billion and £1.4 billion. A further more speculative adjustment cost (estimated at around £1.1 billion) could result if the loss of income associated with the ‘terms‐of‐trade£ effect were also included. In terms of the wider debate about defence exports, the results of this study suggest first that the economic effects of the reduction in defence exports are relatively small and largely one‐off, and secondly that the balance of arguments about UK defence exports should be determined mainly by non‐economic factors.