Financial networks,bank efficiency and risk-taking

Networks with a core–periphery topology are found in many financial systems across different jurisdictions. Though the theoretical and structural aspects of core–periphery networks are clear, the consequences that core–periphery structures bring for banking efficiency stand as an open question. We address this gap in the literature by providing insights as to how the structure of financial networks can affect bank efficiency. We find that core–periphery structures are cost efficient for banks, which is a characteristic that encourages the participation of banks in financial networks. On the downside, we also show that core–periphery structures are risk-taking inefficient, because they imply higher systemic risk levels in the financial system. In this way, regulators should be aware of the excessive risk inefficiency that arises in the financial system due to individual decisions made by banks in the network.     

农信社的县域差异化优势和差别化经营——以广东德庆为例

农信社的县域"差异化"优势 网点与人员众多的优势 在近年商业银行网点大幅撤并的浪潮冲击下,德庆县辖内商业银行网点也已经减少了2个,除农业银行有2个网点外,工行和建行均只在县城设1个综合网点,乡镇一级只有农信社的网点.至2008年6月止,农信社有30个网点,遍布全县13个镇.     

Differentiated regulation: the case of charities

The increasing number and influence of charities in the economy, evidence of mismanagement and the need for information for policymaking are all reasons for establishing charity regulators. Public interest and public choice theories explain charity regulation which aims to increase public trust and confidence in charities (and thus increase voluntarism and philanthropy) and to limit tax benefits to specific organisations and donors. Nevertheless, regulation is resource intensive, and growing pressure on government budgets requires efficiencies to be found. This study proposes regulation differentiated according to charities' main resource providers, to reduce costs and focus regulatory effort, and provides a feasible segmentation.     

略论上市公司差异化监管的思路

我国传统的上市公司统一监管模式已不能适应社会经济发展的要求,上市资源的多元化、法律法规的非完备性、证券监管资源的有限性、上市公司之间的低水平均衡竞争等因素都要求对我国的上市公司进行差异化监管.本文分析了我国上市公司差异化监管的必要性,并提出我国上市公司差异化监管的思路与对策:上市公司差异化监管应从多层次、多角度展开实施;在对上市公司实施差异化监管后,应注意保持法律法规对放松监管后的上市公司的持续威慑力,同时,应加强对中介机构的监管.     

Knowing efficiency: the enactment of efficiency in efficiency auditing

This paper reports an ethnographic study of the activities of auditors in the field as they work to fulfil an efficiency auditing mandate; it analyses how auditors report on efficiency in practice. Miller and Rose's work on governmentality (Miller & Rose (1990). Governing economic Life. Economy and Society, 1–31; Rose & Miller (1992). Political power beyond the state: problematics of government. British Journal of Sociology, 173–205) is developed as it applies to the technologies that Miller and Rose identify as providing the means to realise programmes such as efficiency auditing. The study explores the operationalisation of efficiency auditing through analysis of three audits as they were conducted in the field. It is argued that in the absence of detailed rules or standards practitioners themselves developed an agreed upon knowledge and sensibility that allowed them to make efficiency auditing tractable. The paper explicates these normative guides and discusses the consequences of an apparently socially constructed form of efficiency in guiding auditing practice.     

Exchange Rates and Cash Flows in Differentiated Product Industries: A Simulation Approach

How do exchange rate changes impact firms' cash flows? We extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question. We use prices, quantities, and product characteristics for differentiated products, coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition, to estimate marginal costs for all producers. Using a Monte Carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates. We illustrate the method using the market for bottled water. Our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one, different brands face very different exchange rate risks.     

Stock market risk and return: an equilibrium approach

Empirical evidence that expected stock returns are weakly relatedto volatility at the market level appears to contradict theintuition that risk and return are positively related. We investigatethis issue in a general equilibrium exchange economy characterizedby a regime-switching consumption process with time-varyingtransition probabilities between regimes. When estimated usingconsumption data, the model generates a complex, non-linearand time-varying relation between expected returns and volatility,duplicating the salient features of the risk/return trade-offin the data. The results emphasize the importance of time-varyinginvestment opportunities and highlight the perils of relyingon intuition from static models.     

Forecasting exchange rates: Non-linear adjustment and time-varying equilibrium

By linking two main strands of equilibrium exchange rate research, this paper models and forecasts exchange rate movements around a time-varying equilibrium using both linear and non-linear techniques. Our results support evidence of linear and non-linear (ESTR) stationary behaviour around a time-varying equilibrium, particularly when using a trade based price index. The latter results are largely robust across a break due to the Plaza Accord. Forecasts of both the equilibrium deviations and exchange rates themselves are largely supportive of the ESTR model over several alternatives. This is notably so across most measures with respect to the equilibrium deviations and over the sign based measures for the exchange rate forecasts. Overall, our results suggest that short-run changes in exchange rates are forecastable when allowing for a time-varying equilibrium rate and using an appropriate price index. Such a result has important implications for researchers, policy-makers and goods and financial market participants. For example, policy-makers need to be cognisant of a changing equilibrium level and not necessarily conduct policy in such a manner as to restore a previous equilibrium. Similarly, those engaged in hedging need to be aware that equilibrium rates are time varying but, beneficially, movements around equilibrium appear predictable.     

Stock authorizations: A sequential equilibrium analysis

We develop a sequential equilibrium model of the common stock authorization process. We provide conditions under which actions that increase the number of slack shares, such as stock authorizations, generate negative announcement effects.     

Option pricing: A general equilibrium approach

This article examines option valuation in a general equilibrium framework. We focus on the general equilibrium implications of price dynamics for option valuation. The general equilibrium considerations allow us to derive an alternative option valuation formula that is as simple as the Black and Scholes formula, and that exhibits different behavior with respect to the exercise price and time to expiration. They also help us clarify comparative-statics properties of option valuation formulas in general and of the Black and Scholes model in particular.     

House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach

We use a relatively general intertemporal asset pricing model where housing services and consumption are non-separable to measure overvaluation of housing in relation to rents in Spain, the UK and the US. Part of the increase in real house prices during the late nineties can be seen as a return to equilibrium following some undershooting after previous price peaks. However, marked increases in house prices led to price-to-rent ratios above equilibrium by mid-2003 (around 30% above equilibrium in the UK, 20% in Spain and 10% in the US). Part of that overvaluation — particularly in Spain and the UK — may be attributable to the sluggishness of supply in the presence of large demand shocks in this market and/or the slow adjustment of observed rents.     

Transaction costs and asset prices: a dynamic equilibrium model

In this article we study the effects of transaction costs onasset prices. We assume an overlapping generations economy witha riskless, liquid bond, and many risky stocks carrying proportionaltransaction costs. We obtain stock prices and turnover in closedform. Surprisingly, a stock's price may increase in transactioncosts, and a more frequently traded stock may be less adverselyaffected by an increase in transaction costs. Calculations basedon the 'marginal' investor overestimate the effects of transactioncosts. For realistic parameter values, transaction costs havevery small effects on stock prices but large effects on turnover.     

Options and efficiency: Some experimental evidence

This paper examines the information aggregation role of options when agents possess diverse information about possible asset returns. We construct two identical experimental markets: one with and one without options. We find that options speed the information aggregation process. Asset markets that have parallel option markets aggregate traders' diverse information faster than markets where options trading is not available. Implied ranges were calculated from asset and option prices and compared to the actual ranges. These comparisons suggest that options may provide a means for agents to coordinate beliefs about asset values.     

Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration

Using plant-level data from Chile and the U.S., we show that investment spikes are highly pro-cyclical, so much so that changes in the number of establishments undergoing investment spikes (the “extensive margin”) account for the bulk of variation in aggregate investment. The number of establishments undergoing investment spikes also has independent predictive power for aggregate investment, even controlling for past investment and sales. We re-calibrate the Thomas [2002. Is lumpy investment relevant for the business cycle. Journal of Political Economy, CX 508–534] model (that includes fixed costs of investing) so that it assigns a prominent role to extensive adjustment. The recalibrated model has different properties than the standard RBC model for some shocks.     

Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium

We establish the equivalence of competitive industry equilibrium with a central planner's decision problem under uncertainty, when investment is irreversible. The existence of industry equilibrium is derived, and it is shown that myopic behavior on the part of small agents is harmless, in the sense that it leads to the same decisions as full rational expectations do. Our model is set in continuous time and allows for very general forms of randomness. The methods are based on the probabilistic approach to singular stochastic control theory and its connections with optimal stopping problems.     

Oligopolistic equilibrium and financial constraints

We model a dynamic duopoly in which firms can potentially drive their rivals from the market. For some parameter values, the Cournot equilibrium outcome cannot be sustained in an infinitely repeated setting. In those cases, there is a Markov perfect equilibrium in mixed strategies in which one firm, eventually, will exit the market with probability one. Producer surplus in the maximum collusive outcome is greater under bankruptcy consideration, because the outcome that maximizes joint profits is skewed in favor of the more efficient firm. Consumer surplus and social welfare also increase in many cases, although those effects are generally ambiguous.     

城市商业银行差异化发展探索——基于厦门国际银行差异化发展的启示

当前国内经济正处在增速换挡、结构优化、迈向高质量发展的阶段,银行业存贷利差进一步收窄,产品和服务竞争日趋同质化。在此背景下,城市商业银行如何通过差异化发展打造错位竞争优势显得尤为重要。本文从定位、布局、业务、风控及金融科技五个方面,梳理分析厦门国际银行差异化发展策略,为国内城商行差异化发展提供启示。     

The Trade-Off between Insurance and Incentives in Differentiated Unemployment Policies

In this paper, I revisit the central trade-off between insurance and incentives in the design of unemployment insurance policies. The generosity of unemployment insurance benefits differs not only across countries, but also across workers within countries. After illustrating some important dimensions of heterogeneity in a cross-country analysis, I extend the standard Baily–Chetty formula to identify the key empirical moments and elasticities required to evaluate the differentiated unemployment policy within a country. I also review some prior work and aim to provide guidance for future work trying to inform the design of unemployment policies.     

Firm efficiency and stock returns: Australian evidence

We employ a stochastic frontier approach to estimate firm efficiency - the efficiency with which a firm converts its inputs into output. We find a negative relation between firm efficiency and the cross-section of stock returns (‘firm efficiency effect’) in the Australian stock market. The firm efficiency effect is robust after controlling for other firm characteristics and is more pronounced in stocks with high limits-to-arbitrage. However, we find no evidence that firm efficiency is a priced factor in the cross-section. Our findings suggest that investors misprice firm efficiency and arbitrage costs perpetuate its return predictability.