Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan

Finding the causal effects of liquidity shocks on credit supply is complicated by the endogenous relation between loan demand and liquidity position of banks. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by exploiting, as a natural experiment, the exogenous deposit outflow prompted by the removal of a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits in Japan. We find that during the period of transition from a blanket guarantee to a partial guarantee, weak banks suffered from a large outflow of partially insured time deposits. More importantly, we find that those weak banks were not able to raise a sufficient amount of other types of deposits to make up for the loss of time deposits, which, consequently, forced them to cut back on loan supply. These results are consistent with the theory that the imperfect substitutability of insured deposits and uninsured deposits affects the tightness of banks’ financing constraints and ultimately the supply of bank loans.     

THE EFFICIENCY‐STABILITY TRADE‐OFF: THE CASE OF HIGH INTEREST RATE SPREADS IN VENEZUELA

This paper examines the determinants of the high intermediation spread observed in the Venezuelan banking sector during the 1990s (by far the largest in the Latin American region throughout the 1990s). We trace the evolution of the spread and its connection with other bank‐specific variables. A reduced‐form equation is estimated on the basis of a simple behavioral model for the banking firm previously developed by Shaffer and extended by Barajas, Steiner, and Salazar. Using different types of estimators for aggregate and pooled data of the financial system, we found that high spreads can be attributed to market power, high operating costs, and expected portfolio risk. The empirical results also suggest a trade‐off between assuring bank solvency and lowering profitability.     

Balance sheet deterioration and credit allocations: Japanese evidence from the short-term economic survey of enterprises

This study is an empirical attempt to investigate the effects of balance sheet deterioration of Japanese firms and banks in the 1990s on credit allocation using the short-term economic survey of enterprises. This survey contains a unique item: proportion of firms perceiving the lending attitude as severe. After developing a theoretical model to link this item with the balance sheet conditions of borrowers and lenders, we estimate the relationship derived from the model. We find that credit was reduced when the balance sheet of firms and banks deteriorated. The effects are notably large for non-manufacturing industries.     

EXPLAINING THE MARKET POWER OF GHANAIAN BANKS1

A competitive banking system helps lower transaction costs and risks. It also helps make financial markets more efficient. In Ghana however, observers believe that the banking industry is not competitive and point to the huge spread between bank lending and borrowing rates as evidence. The Ghanaian banking industry is analysed for evidence of market power by computing the Lerner Index of banks using quarterly data from 2001 to 2006. The evidence is that Ghanaian banks possess market power. Factors that significantly explain the market power of Ghanaian banks are: bank size, efficiency of banks with respect to staff costs, the macroeconomic environment and time.     

THE CHANGING EFFICIENCY OF AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS

This paper classifies formal African stock markets into four categories and discuses the principal characteristics of the seven markets covered in this study: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mauritius and Kenya. Using a GARCH approach with time‐varying parameters, a test of evolving efficiency (TEE) is implemented for periods starting in the early 1990s and ending in June 2001. This test detects changes in weak form efficiency through time. The TEE finds that the Johannesburg stock market is weak form efficient throughout the period, and three stock markets become weak form efficient towards the end of the period: Egypt and Morocco from 1999 and Nigeria from early 2001. These contrast with the Kenya and Zimbabwe stock markets which show no tendency towards weak form efficiency and the Mauritius market which displays a slow tendency to eliminate inefficiency. The paper relates weak form efficiency to stock market turnover, capitalisation and institutional characteristics of markets.     

TESTING PROFIT AND STRUCTURE RELATIONSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN BANKING MARKETS USING EFFICIENCY MEASURES

This paper provides a comparison between the developed and developing European countries through investigating the profit–structure relationship in the banking industries. The reduced‐form profit equations are estimated for each group of countries for the period 1995–2006. The results suggest that the inclusion of X‐efficiency and scale efficiency directly in the reduced‐form profit equation is crucial in explaining the bank profit–structure relationship in the European banking markets. When we control for direct measures of efficiency, the market share and concentration coefficient become insignificant in all regressions. The results support the efficiency versions of the efficient‐structure hypothesis over the relative market power and structure–conduct–performance hypothesis. For the developing economies of Europe, the findings of the paper indicate that efficiency is a crucial factor for establishing a sound banking system and the banks in these countries should increase their scale of operations to attain an optimal profit level.     

INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR THE PROPERTY PRICE BOOM IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa appears to share some of the characteristics (property price boom, easing of monetary policy, strong domestic demand growth) of asset price booms in industrial countries that were followed by a period of weak growth. The international experience suggests that a number of practical obstacles need to be overcome before a more proactive role for monetary policy is warranted. However, a larger variety of available mortgage contracts, including longer‐term fixed‐rate contracts, should allow for a more efficient allocation of interest rate risks. Also, a more systematic nationwide collection of property price data, including data on commercial property price developments, would provide a more representative basis for analysis.     

Basel regulations and banks’ efficiency: The case of the Philippines

Using stochastic frontier analysis, this paper has examined the impact of Basel II on the cost efficiency of Philippine commercial banks from 2001 to 2011. The overall mean cost efficiency estimate is 0.75, indicating substantial inefficiencies in the banks averaging to 25% of total costs. Findings show that higher capital requirement tends to improve the cost efficiency but more powerful supervisors can adversely affect the efficiency of the banks. The other potential correlates that may help explain the efficiency of the banks are risk and asset quality and bank-specific variables. From a policy perspective, this study is informative to policymakers on the general direction in which to proceed with reforms (i.e., maintain higher capital requirements, curtail powerful supervisors, and enhance private monitoring) and in identifying factors that could contribute to banks’ efficiency especially in light of the newly implemented Basel III in the country. In effect, this paper also assesses the readiness of the banks toward the implementation of Basel III.     

The third leg of the stool: Financial stability as a prerequisite for EMU

The Third Leg of the Stool: Financial Stability, as a Prerequisite for EMU. — Concerns about fiscal and monetary stability have dominated discussions on EMU, while issues relating to financial stability have received less attention. This paper argues that monetary and fiscal stability are like two legs of a stool. A third leg, stability of the financial system, is required to keep EMU on its feet. The empirical evidence shows that in many European countries, governments still have a large hold on the domestic financial sector, both as owner and as principal debtor. The author argues that governments should leave bank ownership to the private sector, holdings of government debt to the public, and supervision to a specialized, independent European institution.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF PEDAGOGIC INTERVENTIONS IN FIRST-YEAR ACADEMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MAINSTREAM COURSES IN MICROECONOMICS

This paper analyses the impact of pedagogic interventions in first-year academic development and mainstream courses in microeconomics on students' performance in the final examination. The data for six cohorts, covering the years 1999 and 2001-2005, are pooled, and the Heckman two-part procedure is used to account for those students who started the course but did not write the final examination. The results suggest that the pedagogic interventions have a positive impact on the performance of academic development students relative to the mainstream cohort and on the performance of mainstream students.     

THE INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION POLICY IN AUSTRALIA: THE ROLE OF RON BANNERMAN

The 1965 legislation to curb restrictive trade practices has been widely regarded as weak. By contrast, the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth) has been considered as providing the platform for a more comprehensive competition policy. This paper argues that the 1965–67 and 1971 Acts were more effective than has been commonly recognised in raising awareness about the extent of restrictive trade practices, discrediting price agreements and laying the foundations for the 1974 Act. The role of Ron Bannerman, the sole Commissioner of Trade Practices, was critical to their success. This paper uses parliamentary debates, Bannerman's published works and an interview with him undertaken in early 2005.     

THE ROLE OF COMMODITY PRICES IN MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper examines whether commodity prices can be used as signal for informing macroeconomic policy in South Africa using the new approach for testing Granger causality developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ). Evidence of causality from average gold price to interest rate, money, exchange rate and the consumer price index was observed. Again, evidence of causality was observed from metals price index to interest rate, money and exchange rate. The results suggest there is merit in using South Africa's average gold price and the metals price index of the International Monetary Fund as informational variables in setting monetary policy.     

INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH IN THE COMMON MONETARY AREA OF THE SACU COUNTRIES

We investigate the interest rate pass‐through in the four Common Monetary Area (CMA) countries of the South African Customs Union (SACU). We employ an empirical pass‐through model that allows for thresholds, asymmetric adjustment, and structural changes. We show that CMA bank lending markets exhibit quite some degree of homogenization as the pass‐through is often fast and complete. Deposit markets are somewhat more heterogeneous by showing differing degrees of interest rate stickiness and asymmetric adjustment. Policy makers should therefore be concerned about imperfect competition which may be at the heart of the remaining cross‐country differences in monetary transmission in the CMA.