THE EFFECT OF STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS ON ACHIEVEMENT IN INTRODUCTORY MICROECONOMICS IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper uses OLS regression analysis to examine the effect of student characteristics on performance in Introductory Microeconomics at five South African universities. No consistent race‐effects were found, but Indian students performed significantly worse than Whites at historically‐White universities. Male students outperformed females in general. Older students did better at the historically‐White institutions only. At one university, Black students who speak English as their home language outperformed those who are non‐English speakers. Students who devoted more time to study outside formal classes did better in general. Greater verbal and mathematical ability had large and significant positive effects on student achievement.     

IDENTIFYING SOME CONSTRAINTS IN FIRST YEAR ECONOMICS TEACHING AND LEARNING AT A TYPICAL SOUTH AFRICAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

This paper examines possible determinants of economics 1 performance at the Riverside campus of the Durban Institute of Technology. The study finds that high school subjects taken, age and gender are not significantly associated with economics achievement. Learner motivation, however, does appear to be associated with economics performance. Specifically, learners may find it difficult to relate meaningfully to the discipline's real content at least partly as a consequence of the philosophical framework within which it is delivered and partly because they do not have the textbook. A well‐designed learner guide and workbook could go some way to demonstrating the relevance of economics and instilling in students more effective learning methods. The result could be a virtuous cycle of improved performance and greater learner motivation.     

TOWARD BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND EMPIRICAL REALITY

Introductory (i.e. first year) undergraduate learners often perceive economics to be remote from reality and overly theoretical, leading to a lack of motivation and enthusiasm to study economics. A general survey of curriculum practice reveals that lecture materials and the pedagogic approach to teaching introductory economics often do not place the current “mainstream” economic theory into its philosophical context. The result being that the learners are unable to bridge the gap between abstract economic theory and empirical reality. This paper argues that research into effective teaching and learning should focus not only on learner characteristics but also on curriculum content and its philosophical underpinnings, in order to research why students hold these negative perceptions. The paper recommends that introductory undergraduate teaching needs to engage in a critical examination, with the learner, of the philosophical underpinnings of “mainstream” economic theory and to introduce debates about the implications of these into the curriculum. This would create exciting new opportunities for teachers and learners to explore the connections between economic theory and social science in general and should come a long way in changing the negative perceptions of introductory undergraduate economics.     

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE IMPACT OF TUTORIALS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMICS STUDENTS

The deteriorating performance of first-year economics students has become a concern at many South African universities. Addressing the issue requires an understanding of the factors influencing students' success. Studies analysing academic performance use the education production function approach. This approach identifies inputs that are crucial to learning and to achieving certain outputs. Factors that have been investigated in other studies include the impact of lecture attendance on performance, school-leaving exam (matriculation) results, particularly performance in mathematics, and the gender and age of students.
This study adds to existing local empirical research by analysing the impact of the tutorial programme as an input. The case study investigates the tutorial programme for first-year economics students at Stellenbosch University using quantitative analysis. Results confirm what previous studies have found, namely that lecture attendance, gender, and matriculation results contribute positively to the performance of first-year economics students. The main finding of the paper is that tutorial attendance also contributes positively to academic performance.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF PEDAGOGIC INTERVENTIONS IN FIRST-YEAR ACADEMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MAINSTREAM COURSES IN MICROECONOMICS

This paper analyses the impact of pedagogic interventions in first-year academic development and mainstream courses in microeconomics on students' performance in the final examination. The data for six cohorts, covering the years 1999 and 2001-2005, are pooled, and the Heckman two-part procedure is used to account for those students who started the course but did not write the final examination. The results suggest that the pedagogic interventions have a positive impact on the performance of academic development students relative to the mainstream cohort and on the performance of mainstream students.     

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF EDUCATIONAL INTERVENTIONS ON THE ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE OF ACADEMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDENTS IN SECOND‐YEAR MICROECONOMICS

This paper analyses the impact of educational interventions made in the first‐ and second‐year microeconomics courses on academic development students' final mark in the second‐year course. It also addresses issues of methodology, specification, and statistical analysis with respect to other studies in the field. The results suggest that the educational interventions in the first‐year had a positive impact on the academic performance of the academic development cohort, relative to the mainstream cohort for the first period (2000‐2002). The results also suggest that the educational interventions introduced in the second period (2003‐2005), in the form of voluntary workshops, improved the academic performance of the academic development and mainstream cohorts.     

FACTORS EXPLAINING THE ACADEMIC SUCCESS OF SECOND‐YEAR ECONOMICS STUDENTS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

Factors influencing the academic success of first‐year economics students have been intensely researched. Lecture and tutorial attendance, age, gender, as well as matriculation results have been identified as significant in explaining academic performance. The academic success of senior students, however, has received less attention in South Africa. This paper presents the findings of an investigation into the academic performance of second‐year economics students at Stellenbosch University. Using a Heckman two‐step model, the study analyses whether the factors explaining first‐year academic success are applicable in the second year or if other factors are relevant. The results suggest that most matriculation subjects become statistically insignificant for second‐year students, whereas lecture and tutorial attendance remain important contributors to academic success. Furthermore, academic performance in the first year is an important determinant of success in the second year.     

论数的不确定性对数论的影响及其解决办法

数的空间性和无限可分性,导致了数具有不确定性.0.(N-1)01即是被假设为最小数,其他任何一个数都是由这个数累加而得到的.只有假定一个最小数时,其它任何一个数才会有它相对准确的位置与大小,才会有其存在的真正意义.另一方面,只有给以最小数的假设,使得教的无限性和有限性在对立中统一.同时对无限小数和其对应的分数之间另行定生为大约相等的性质,使无限小数在进行四则运算中产生的误差得到合理的解释.     

THE NATURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE GENERAL INSURANCE INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA TO 1973

The development of the insurance industry in Australia in the twentieth century was fundamentally shaped by a collusive code of conduct called the tariff. This arrangement, established to overcome problems of uncertainty, initially benefited both tariff and non-tariff firms by enhancing market stability. It also reduced competition. The collusive agreements gradually broke down, however, as new entrants and products entered the market in the 1950s. Self-regulation gradually gave way as the 'rules of the game' changed. The result was a period of instability before new competitive practices, and more direct and specific regulatory requirements emerged in the 1970s.     

THE EFFECT OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN OLD AGE PENSION ON LABOUR SUPPLY OF THE ELDERLY

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the means tested South African Old Age Pension on labour supply amongst the elderly African subpopulation in South Africa. We find significant decreases in employment rates and labour supply. Those who remain employed beyond the pensionable age are more likely to work in jobs with flexible hours of work, and work even fewer hours than people in similar jobs who are not pension age‐eligible. Our results suggest that governments do need to consider the labour supply related incentives provided via its various welfare programmes.     

THE CHANGING FACE OF PUBLIC FINANCING OF HIGHER EDUCATION,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SOUTH AFRICA1

Higher education displays characteristics of both private and public goods and there is a trend worldwide to expect individuals to pay more of the costs of their higher education. In South Africa public funding of higher education decreased from 0.86% of GDP in 1986 to only 0.66% in 2006; so that student tuition fees had to be increased to compensate for this loss of income. In the process staff numbers were kept relatively constant while student numbers increased appreciably. Two future scenarios, based on public higher education expenditure as a percentage of GDP and on real state allocation per WFTES, are spelt out. Although the qualifications awarded per FTE academic staff member increased over time, the graduation rates of the higher education institutions in South Africa are worsening. High‐level research, measured in publication units per FTE academic staff member, shows a disturbing decreasing trend since 1997.     

RAISING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF THE POOR: POLICIES AND ISSUES

Despite every policymaker's recognition, enrollment rates of the low‐income countries remain low. A simple framework of understanding educational outcomes is presented using a unitary model with an altruistic parent and a child. The traditional interventions, so‐called supply‐side policies, and recent innovation of relaxing constraints faced by households, the conditional transfer programs or so‐called demand‐side policies, are reviewed. In addition, recent trends on estimation technique are discussed. It has been argued that randomization is clearly the best for inference, however, one may still want to choose the optimal combination of randomized experiments and observational data, as the former requires more resources and time. This is particularly true for economics than other hard sciences, partly because of our inability to fine‐tune the control, and partly because of our lack of solid microfoundation than other sciences when an experiment shows unexpected results.     

THE ROLE OF COMMODITY TERMS OF TRADE IN THE DETERMINATION OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there exists a long‐run relationship between the real exchange rate and the commodity terms of trade in the so‐called Mediterranean or MENA countries. These economies are good candidates for this type of formulation, as are commodity exporting countries. Using cointegration techniques, we find long‐run relationships linking the real exchange rate and a commodity‐based measure of the terms of trade. Therefore, commodity terms of trade are a potential explanation for the apparent nonstationarity of MENA countries’ real exchange rates previously found in the empirical literature.     

THE SOUTH AFRICAN AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION: ESTIMATION OF THE CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION FUNCTION

This paper assesses the validity of the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) and the Cobb-Douglas (CD) production functions in modelling the aggregate production function and computing the total factor productivity (TFP) in South Africa for the period 1970-2006. The CES function is estimated with Nerlove's two-step procedure using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration and the Kalman filter estimation techniques, while the CD production function is estimated using the Kalman filter technique. The results of the forecast performance of the two model specifications show that the CD specification outperforms the CES for the period 1970-2006, although the CD specification may be too restrictive.     

HIGH AND VARIABLE INFLATION: FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE FRIEDMAN HYPOTHESIS

This note, employing a GARCH model, finds a positive and significant relationship between the level and variability of inflation in South Africa in the period 1957:1‐2005:9. This provides evidence in support of Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation leads to more variable inflation.     

FINANCE AND GROWTH: NEW EVIDENCE ON THE ROLE OF INSURANCE

This paper provides new evidence that sheds light on the impact of insurance sector development on output growth, capital accumulation and productivity improvement, using data from 51 countries (developed and developing) during 1981‐2005. The dynamic panel data analysis results demonstrate that insurance sector development affects growth predominantly through productivity improvement in developed countries, while in developing countries it promotes capital accumulation.     

WITTFOGEL'S THEORY OF ORIENTAL SOCIETY (or HYDRAULIC SOCIETY) AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STUDIES OF CHINESE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC HISTORY IN JAPAN

Wittfogel's theory of Oriental Society has influenced studies of Chinese social and economic history in Japan in many forms, but since the Second World War a critical tendency has predominated. In this article the author has endeavoured to show what Japanese scholars have taken over from Wittfogel, of what points they are critical, and in what ways they are attempting to surmount these, at the same time reviewing developments in studies of Chinese social and economic history in Japan since the Second World War, and in particular studies of the process of the formation of the ancient empire under the Ch ‘in and Han dynasties.     

FURTHER EVIDENCE OF LONG MEMORY IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN STOCK MARKET

This paper expands and augments the results of the paper by Jefferis and Thupayagale ) and tests the efficiency of the South African stock market with Wavelet and Markov Switching Regime analyses of selected shares and the a ALSI 40 data. The Wavelet analysis indicated that most of the individual share prices and the share index time series are mean reverting over the long run and follow a long memory process, offering evidence against weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The Markov model modelled the financial and prevalent economic conditions accurately and established the presence of patterns in the historic time series, providing additional support against the weak-form EMH.     

MODELLING SOUTH AFRICAN CURRENCY CRISES AS STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE VOLATILITY OF THE RAND

This study tests the theory that currency crises are associated with sudden large changes in the structure of foreign exchange market volatility. Due to increases in market uncertainty, crisis periods exhibit abnormally high levels of volatility. By studying short-term changes in volatility dynamics, it is possible to identify the start and end dates of crisis periods with a high degree of precision. We use the iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm to detect multiple shifts in the volatility of rand returns between January 1994 and March 2009. Dummy variables controlling for the detected shifts in variance are incorporated in a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling framework. The analysis indicates that previously identified crisis periods in the rand coincide with significant structural changes in market volatility.     

DOES ATTENDANCE AT A HISTORICALLY WHITE UNIVERSITY BENEFIT NON‐WHITE STUDENTS OF INTRODUCTORY ECONOMICS IN SOUTH AFRICA?

The Equality of Educational Opportunity survey (aka the Coleman Report), published in 1966 in the USA, is arguably the fountainhead of the debate promulgated within the economics of education and allied disciplines concerning the efficacy of schooling. The debate was largely due to the primary conclusion of the Coleman Report that school inputs (other than student demographics) explain little, if any, of the variance in student performance, with the implication that more money was not the solution to educational problems. While the methodology and the conclusions of the Coleman Report have been criticised in the 40 years since its publication, the fundamental question of the magnitude and extent of the consequences of educational inequalities has relevance to the South African situation. Utilising a cross‐sectional data set drawn from three universities, and the theoretical framework of an education production function, this paper addresses the issue of whether, over a decade after the first democratic elections in South Africa, black, Indian and coloured students studying Introductory Microeconomics, have benefited academically from attending historically advantaged (i.e. white) universities (HAU) relative to their counterparts who are attending historically disadvantaged universities (HDU).