现行市价法在林木资产评估中的运用

《森林资源资产评估技术规范(试行)》中明确指出,现行市价法是森林资源资产评估的基本方法之一.但由于目前现行市价法运用的前提条件还不够充分,所以很少被采用.但是随着林权制度改革的不断深入与活立木市场的发展,现行市价法的运用条件将日渐具备,该方法将可能成为未来森林资源资产评估的主要方法之一.本文就此方法的涵义、意义、基本程序及具体评估程序进行了阐述.     

Real Options Valuation: A Case Study of an E‐commerce Company

This paper presents a real options valuation model with original solutions to some issues that arise frequently when trying to apply these models to real‐life situations. The authors build on existing models by introducing an innovative and intuitive risk neutral adjustment that allows us to work with all the simulated paths. The problem of incorporating real options into each path is solved with a “nearest neighbors” technique, and uncertainty is simulated using a beta distribution that adapts better to company‐specific information. The model is then applied to a real life e‐commerce company to produce the following insights: the expanded present value is higher than the traditional present value; the presence of several real options make them interact so that their values are nonadditive; and part of the expanded present value is explained by the presence of “Jensen's inequality” that stems from the “convexity” between the value of each year's cash flow and the uncertain variables.     

Book‐to‐Market Equity,Asset Correlations and the Basel Capital Requirement

This paper examines the effect of book‐to‐market equity (BE/ME) on asset correlations under the Basel capital requirement. We find that BE/ME captures variations in asset correlations after controlling for firm size, default probability and industry effects from 1987 to 2011. Obligors with higher BE/ME exhibit lower asset correlations compared to those with lower BE/ME. Decomposing BE/ME into assets‐in‐place and growth options based on the asset pricing literature shows that obligors with more assets‐in‐place or more fixed assets have higher BE/ME and lower asset correlations than those with more growth options. Overall, our findings suggest that BE/ME is an additional important factor that may improve the estimates of asset correlations and thereby banks’ capital adequacy.     

驳资产评估机构不能从事房地产评估业务

《中国资产评估》杂志2006年2月期曾登载了一份湖北省京山县人民法院的一审判决的判决书。该判决书判定“被告京山县房地产管理局对原告京山腾达资产评估事务所为京山嘉美购物广场和张实刚出具的资产评估报告拒绝确认有效的具体行政行为违法。”     

基于模糊数学的房地产市场法价格评估

本文针对运用市场法评估房地产价格时,交易实例的选择、比较差异的量化调整以及交易实例比准价格的处理存在着不确定性和模糊性,将模糊数学应用于房地产评估,建立市场法评估模型,并进行了实证分析.结果表明,应用模糊数学评估房地产市场价格,具有方便、真实、可靠的特点.     

MZ电厂资产组收益法评估案例

2006年颁布实施的新会计准则引入了资产组及资产组组合的概念。本案例是在评估中应用资产组概念的一个全新探索,给我们带来了一些启发,具有指导意义,有利于充实资产评估的技术方法。     

房地产估价中使用收益法应注意的问题

在运用收益法进行房地产估价时,目前存在着许多问题,他们都不同程度地影响了估价过程的科学性和估价结果的精确度。这些问题主要体现在收益法的适用范围和参数确定及资本化率的确定等几方面。     

Multi‐period Asset Lifetimes and Accounting‐based Equity Valuation: Take Care with Constant‐growth Terminal Value Models!

The merits of accruals in forecasting cash flows or mitigating the volatility of financials shortly after the valuation date are indisputable. However, the usefulness of accounting in equity valuation is very limited if we step beyond a certain forecasting horizon. In this paper, this limitation is emphasized by shedding new light on the accounting‐based value driver model (VDM), a widely used constant‐growth terminal value tool that uses accounting variables as input. The paper shows that, if the lifetime of a firm's assets is, on average, longer than one period, the VDM works accurately only in an idealized academic environment with an even historical corporate investment activity, a single depreciation method for all assets, and no historical inflation volatility. Artificially adjusting real‐world figures to this steady state is possible in principle, but bloats the valuation model and requires exactly the same information that is used in our cash flow‐driven benchmark model (where no adjustment phase is necessary). Beyond these theoretical shortcomings, the VDM is also prone to being misused in valuation practice due to its reliance on book (rather than economic) rates of return, and to its shortcomings in dealing adequately with the assets with an ex ante indefinite lifetime.     

Asset Valuation: Recoverable Amount And Measurement Error

On 5 February this year CSR Limited announced that shareholders'funds "will be reduced by $372 million following an extensive review of the group's non-current asset values". This was the difference between an upward revaluation of land and buildings of $186 million and a writedown of $558 million on other non-current assets, net of tax and minority interests. Although not legally required to do so at the time, CSR became the first major group to report under the revised rules for the revaluation of non-current assets. The announcement drew attention in the financial press to the requirement that companies "write down (or write up) asset values that had obviously been affected by economic conditions" and the "expanded legal liabilities of directors under the national Corporations Law regime".' This article shows that compliance with the tests currently set out in AASB 1010 and the ASC's Practice Note 21 will result in measurement error and lead directors, in some cases, to make incorrect decisions about the writedown of asset values.     

金融不良资产评估:挑战不确定性

金融不良资产的处置已经成为我国一项重要的经济活动.资产管理公司(AMC)接手银行金融不良资产的方式越来越市场化,处置方式也越来越多样化,社会各界对金融不良资产的评估与处置也越来越重视和关注.     

Valuation in Emerging Markets: A Simulation Approach

Most of the foundations of valuation theory have been designed for use in developed markets. Because of the greater, and in some cases different, risks associated with emerging markets (although recent experience might suggest otherwise), investors and corporate managers are often uncomfortable using traditional methods. The typical way of capturing emerging-market risks is to increase the discount rate in the standard valuation model. But, as the authors argue, such adjustments have the effect of undermining some of the basic assumptions of the CAPM-based discounted cash flow model. The standard theory of capital budgeting suggests that estimates of unconditional expected cash flows should be discounted at CAPM discount rates (or betas) that reflect only “systematic,” or “nondiversifiable,” market-wide risks. In practice, however, analysts tend to take what are really estimates of “conditional” expected cash flows—that is, conditional on the firm or its country avoiding a crisis—and discount them at higher rates that reflect not only systematic risks, but diversifiable risks that typically involve a higher probability of crisis-driven costs of default. But there is almost no basis in theory for the size of the increases in discount rates. In this article, the authors propose that analysts in emerging markets avoid this discount rate problem by using simulation techniques to capture emerging-market risks in their estimates of unconditional expected cash flows—in other words, estimates that directly incorporate the possibility of an emerging-market crisis and its consequences. Having produced such estimates, analysts can then discount them using the standard Global CAPM.     

Regulatory Capital Charges for Too‐Connected‐to‐Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal

The recent financial crisis has highlighted once more that interconnectedness in the financial system is a major source of systemic risk. I suggest a practical way to levy regulatory capital charges based on the degree of interconnectedness among financial institutions. Namely, the charges are based on the institution's incremental contribution to systemic risk based on a risk budgeting approach. The imposition of such capital charges could go a long way towards internalizing the negative externalities associated with too‐connected‐to‐fail institutions and providing managerial incentives to strengthen an institution's solvency position, and avoid too much homogeneity and excessive reliance on the same counterparties in the financial industry.     

A Reduced‐Form Model for Warrant Valuation

This paper studies warrant valuation using a reduced‐form model. Analogous to the credit risk literature, structural models require complete information about the asset value process and the firm’s liabilities. In contrast, reduced‐form models require only information about the firm’s stock price process. We introduce a reduced‐form model where the warrant holder is a price taker, and we relate our model to structural models appearing in the literature.     

A Dynamic-Programming Approach to Multiperiod Asset Allocation

Academicians and practitioners recently have focused a great deal of attention on the issue of retirement asset allocation. However, research on the academic side typically has assumed a static allocation of a fixed amount over the investor's lifetime, while the advice on the practitioner side has been largely ad hoc in nature. Moreover, both academics and practitioners often fail to link allocations to the individual's attitude toward risk. This paper uses several performance measures that incorporate the individual's aversion to risk and finds the allocations in the year before retirement that maximize the expected value of those performance measures. It then uses a dynamic programming procedure to roll back one year at a time to determine optimal allocations for previous years as well. We find that the traditional advice that young investors should invest more heavily in equity (with a gradual shift to more debt as they near retirement) indeed is correct, and in fact the optimal equity allocation is even higher than commonly suggested. Deviations of the growth in an individual's income from a long-term national average did not seem to significantly affect the optimal allocations. The optimal allocations, however, vary widely as a function of (1) investor attitudes toward risk and (2) accumulated savings to date. These results suggest greater care should be taken to assess and incorporate these factors into the asset-allocation decision.     

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Mechanism Design Approach

We investigate the effects of monetary policy on asset prices in economies where assets are traded periodically in bilateral meetings. The trading mechanism is designed to maximize social welfare taking as given the frictions in the environment and monetary policy. We show that asset price “bubbles” emerge in a constrained‐efficient monetary equilibrium only if liquidity is abundant and the first‐best allocation is implementable. In contrast, if liquidity is scarce, assets are priced at their fundamental value in any constrained‐efficient monetary equilibrium, in which case an increase in inflation has no effect on asset prices, but it reduces output and welfare.     

金融发展、资产泡沫与实体经济: 一个文献综述

近年来的金融危机和不同国家的发展路径促使经济学家们反思资产泡沫与实体经济之间的关系。过去几年主流经济学中开始涌现出一些富有洞见的相关理论和实证文献。本文通过一条逻辑主线对基于这些文献的进展进行了系统评述。资产泡沫产生于金融市场的不完全性,它既影响实体经济的效率和增长,也影响实体经济的波动。其中,金融发展程度(金融市场的完全性)扮演了重要的角色。金融发展程度会影响到资产泡沫的产生;而资产泡沫既可以缓解经济中的扭曲,也可以加剧经济中的扭曲,使得经济增长偏离黄金律。制度质量则会强化金融发展程度的影响。金融发展程度与制度质量在开放经济的情况下,还会影响到资本在国际间的流向和结构,从而对实体经济的增长和波动产生更复杂的影响。本文中所综述的理论洞见对于中国这类金融市场欠发达、正面临金融自由化与结构转型的新兴市场经济体尤其具有重要的政策含义。本文最后讨论了中国金融改革和金融发展中需要注意的一些问题。     

The flight‐to‐quality effect: a copula‐based analysis

We derive and estimate a copula combining the features of the Frank and Gumbel copulas to analyse the relationship between equity and long‐term bond returns. Our analysis of quarterly returns from 1952 to 2003 finds that, in general, there is a positive relationship between equity returns and bond returns. In extreme situations, however, there is approximately a one‐in‐seven chance of a flight‐to‐quality effect where large negative equity returns are associated with large positive bond returns.