The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries

It is generally believed that economic and financial performance in oil-rich countries are interlinked to oil price movements. On this assumption, we consider whether oil prices shocks have any impact on bank non-performing loans (NPLs), and if so, whether the effect is homogenous across banks. This paper addresses these questions by applying a dynamic GMM model on data from 2310 commercial banks in 30 oil-exporting countries over the period 2000–2014. Three main results emerge. First, changes in oil prices do have a significant impact on bank NPLs: A rise (fall) in oil prices is associated with a decrease (increase) in NPLs. Second, oil prices shocks have asymmetric effects on bank problem loans, with negative oil price movements generally have a greater impact than positive oil price movements. Third, the unfavourable impact of adverse oil prices shocks on the quality of bank loans tends to be more pronounced in large banks. Overall, these robust results favour the adaptation of appropriate macroprudential policies and diversification of the economy, in order to mitigate the adverse impact of oil prices shocks.     

The impact of crude oil inventory announcements on prices: Evidence from derivatives markets

This study examines the impact of weekly crude oil storage announcements on oil futures and options prices. We document evidence of a strong announcement day effect on both markets, and find prices to move in anticipation of the inventory surprise. Futures returns significantly decrease with positive surprises and increase with negative surprises. There is no evidence of an asymmetric impact on futures prices. Near‐the‐money options exhibit the greatest price sensitivity, and the magnitude of the price response of both futures and options declines with maturity. The results remain robust even after controlling for various macroeconomic and other storage‐related news variables.     

Price and quality decisions in a vertically-differentiated supply chain with an “Online-to-Store” channel

Because of the prevalence of “Online-to-Store (OS)” channel, customers can purchase differentiated products online and pick up in-store. We develop a Stackelberg game-theoretic model to study the impact of an OS channel on quality levels, demands, prices, and profits of a manufacturer and a retailer in a supply chain. We assume that the retailer acts as a Stackelberg leader, and the manufacturer acts as a Stackelberg follower. The manufacturer produces and sells two products with vertically-differentiated quality levels to the retailer who in turn sells the products to customers through a Store channel, an Online channel, or an OS channel. The retailer incurs a handing cost if the OS channel is available, and consumers bear a shipping cost and a transaction cost when the products are purchased from the Online and Store channels, respectively. We find that the manufacturer should reduce both products’ quality levels and wholesale prices, whereas the retailer can increase the selling prices for a relatively small shipping cost and a not too small handling cost. When the products are available both online and in-store, however, the quality levels, wholesale prices and selling prices might increase for a small shipping cost and a not too small handling cost. Compared to the case in which both products are available online only with the OS channel, adding the Store channel is always beneficial for both parties. The intuition behind these results hinges on the trade-off between the handling cost and the increased market demand for the retailer. Moreover, the quality levels, the wholesale prices of both products, and the selling price of the low-quality product would decrease, while the selling price of the high-quality product increases for a sufficiently low transaction cost and a not too small shipping cost.     

Transmission of external price disturbances and the composition of trade

This paper focuses on the role of trade composition in the transmission of external price disturbances. It is shown that the effects of an increase in the price of imports on domestic prices and the trade balance crucially depend on the cross price elasticity of demand in the case of final goods and the elasticity of substitution between factors in the case of intermediate goods. In the case of an input such as oil, where the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestic factors of production is less than unity, an increase in its price will give rise to a balance-of-trade deficit but will have ambiguous effects on domestic prices.     

Some implications of search and switching costs for the price dynamics of electronic markets

This article develops a model, based on switching costs and technological uncertainty, which explains some aspects of the price dynamics of e‐commerce. Switching costs and intertemporal cost correlation lock‐in consumers. Firms initially charge low prices to build a customer base. If firms fail to reduce costs, and reservation prices are low, firms exit the industry. Over time, prices increase if no exit occurs, and decrease if exit occurs. Prices may also decrease over time, if the proportion of low search cost consumers increases.     

The impact of external reference price on consumer price expectations

Comparative pricing practices are frequently used where actual product prices are accompanied by higher external reference prices. All types of stores, regular-price department stores as well as discount stores, use comparative price claims to frame price deals as attractive [Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199]. In this paper, a quadratic model is specified for the impact of external reference price (ERP) on consumer price expectations. Based on the research on communication discrepancy and advertising claim discrepancy, which in turn draw on assimilation-contrast, attribution, and prospect theories, we hypothesize a quadratic effect of external reference prices on consumer price expectations. An interactive, computer-controlled experiment using multiple levels of ERP is used to estimate the proposed model. As hypothesized, support for an inverted U-shape relationship is found between consumers’ updated price expectations and the difference between ERP and initial price expectations. That is, as the difference between ERP and subjects’ initial price expectations increases, subjects’ updated price expectations increase to a point and then start to decrease. We find that the fit of the quadratic model specification for the effect of external reference price on price expectations is noticeably superior to that of linear, logarithmic, square root, and S-shaped specifications. Finally, we provide implications of our results for both retail managers and for regulatory authorities alike.     

The effect of exogenous product familiarity on endogenous consumer search

When a consumer is familiar with one product but not its competitor, she is faced with a decision: either buy what she knows, or engage in search to learn more. When search is costly, competing firms may attempt to encourage or discourage search by adjusting prices. In this paper we consider how competitive dynamics between two quality differentiated firms are affected if one product enjoys a familiarity advantage. Familiarity is defined as a consumer’s ex-ante knowledge of fit for a particular product. An increase in the level of familiarity for one product allows a firm to charge higher prices since there are more consumers with information on that product relative to the competition. We call this the direct effect of familiarity. However, an increase in familiarity also has an indirect effect, since it gives the rival firm a stronger incentive to decrease price in order to encourage searching, in turn increasing overall competition. The effect of familiarity on profits depends on the magnitudes of these effects, and it is moderated by the level of quality differentiation between products. For very high or very low levels of differentiation, the results are relatively straightforward. However, when the level of differentiation is moderate, the results are more nuanced, with the higher-quality firm realizing higher profits from more familiarity, even if it must lower prices due to the indirect effect. We also find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, overall competition may be higher when firms are more quality differentiated. This is driven by the fact that higher quality differences bolster the indirect effect, with a lower quality firm providing deeper price cuts to counter increased familiarity of a high quality rival. We conclude by examining how changes in the cost of searching impact equilibrium outcomes.

     

成本不确定和运力影响下新能源汽车供应链协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和配送企业组成的供应链，在新能源汽车和燃油汽车的运营成本不确定和运力影响下，文章运用NAC容度期望效用和博弈论研究新能源汽车的租赁量、租赁价和配送价格决策，比较了有无成本分担与收益共享两种契约结果，揭示配送企业对运营成本的乐观度和运力的影响。研究发现，引入成本分担与收益共享能提高新能源汽车租赁量，降低配送价格，提升配送需求。随着配送企业对新能源汽车（燃油汽车）运营成本乐观度的提高（下降）或新能源汽车（燃油汽车）运力提升（下降），新能源汽车租赁量均提高，但租赁价和配送价格不一定下降，受契约类型的影响。     

化肥价格变化对粮食价格的影响研究--基于省际动态面板数据模型的系统GMM检验

基于我国粮食价格与化肥价格变动趋势的分析,运用2006年~2017年省际动态面板数据模型和系统GMM方法,实证检验了化肥价格变动对粮食价格的影响。结果表明:化肥价格变动对粮食价格存在显著的正向影响,在考虑化肥价格影响下,农业生产服务、种子等农资价格对粮食价格也存在显著的正向影响,机械化农具和农药价格对粮食价格不显著,"价补分离"政策对粮食价格存在显著负向影响。因此,在化肥减量行动背景下,适度调控化肥价格,避免化肥价格上升挤占粮农利润,大力发展农业生产性服务业和种子业,继续实行"价补分离"政策,提高补贴精准性,减少农民投入成本。     

Empirical Generalizations in Search Engine Advertising

This article compares prices per click and search engine advertising (SEA) effectiveness across six countries and 15 industries over four years. We find that prices per click are highest in the United States and United Kingdom, as well as in the financial and Internet services industries, but are lower in retail than in services industries. In highly competitive markets, increases in SEA expenditures may increase prices per click that do not necessarily lead to higher advertising effectiveness, here measured as a higher number of clicks. To analyze and compare advertising effectiveness across industries, we decompose the effect of increases in SEA expenditures on prices per click (price effect) and number of clicks (quantity effect). A cross-country, cross-industry study shows that 44 percent of the increase in SEA expenditures is associated with more clicks and 56 percent with higher prices.     

土地管制、市场价格与政策选择

本文从宏观和微观两个层面考察土地管制政策对市场价格的影响,利用35个大中城市的宏观数据,检验土地供给是否对住房价格产生影响,以及其影响程度与时间路径;利用杭州286宗住宅用地微观数据,量化微观管制政策对土地价格的影响方向与程度。我们发现土地供给对住房供给在长期内(1～2年)有显著影响,短期内(1年以内)没有影响;而土地供给对住房价格在长期与短期内都有影响,如通过改变预期影响当年住房价格,通过控制住房供给影响滞后1年的住房价格等。土地出让约束条款能够显著影响土地的出让价格,容积率每增加1%,会引起土地价格上升0.777%,出让地块面积增加1%会导致单位出让价格下降0.108%。进而,从宏观和微观两个层面提出政策建议,促进住房市场与价格保持稳定。     

Überlegungen zur Bedeutung Unverbindlicher Preisempfehlungen und ihrer Kontrolle durch das Bundeskartellamt Ein Kommentar zu den Beiträgen von Reich und Schultes in ZVP, 1, 1977/3 bzw. 1977/4

Reflections on the importance of recommended prices and their control by the Cartel Office. A comment on the papers by Reich (JCP, 1, 1977/3) and Schultes (JCP, 1, 1977/4). The The comment deals with two previous articles on recommended prices. Both Reich and Schultes refer to the 1977 report of the German Federal Government on recommended prices, which was intended to show the consequences of price recommendations and to give a better base for further decisions of the legislative assembly. The two authors evaluate the information in this report very differently and draw opposite conclusions. Reich pleads in the interest of the consumer for an unlimited prohibition of the institute of recommended prices. His thesis is based on three arguments:

1. Article 38 a of the Law Against Restraints of Competition implies that manufacturers often find themselves in a dilemma. Either they respect the character of the price as recommended, not binding, whereby the often emerging wide retail price range activates the Cartel Office which calls for the abolition of the recommended price since it is “unrealistic”, or manufacturers require that the recommended price is adhered to, which leads to accusations of price fixing. In practice, therefore, the institute of recommended prices is on the decrease except in connection with selective distribution systems where it is used increasingly and functions as vertical price fixing.
2. Prices which are recommended and available to retailers only are devices for concerted vertical pricing and in reality work like price fixing.
3. An abolition of recommended prices would strengthen traders' and consumers' resistance to high prices.

Schultes, on the other hand, adopts the view that the present Law together with some minor improvements is sufficient to protect the consumer against misuses of recommended prices. His view is based on the argument that the control by the Cartel Office has been successful, considering the great number of eliminated price recommendations, and that in the case of an unlimited prohibition of recommended prices on would have to reckon with the development of uncontrollable surrogates. A critical examination of these arguments shows that neither position is well-founded. The theoretical considerations of both authors contain contradictions and are not based on empirical findings. Schultes' paper suggests that the control of recommended prices by the Cartel Office leads to a continuous decimation of recommended prices and therefore, in the long run, either to the same result as Reich's demand or to a treatment which discriminates against certain firms or trades. It is very doubtful if the development of surrogates is prevented through this control. The statement of Schultes that the Cartel Office's control activity has been sucessful up to now also seems very questionable, since the number of eliminated price recommendations is not sufficient proof; a more sophisticated cost-benefit analysis is called for. The analysis of Reich's arguments indicates the following:

1. It is quite correct that Article 38 a of the Law contains conflicting aims. This conflict arises from the choice of criteria for declaring recommendations unlawful. There are two possible solutions to the conflict: the total abolition of recommended prices or a change in the criteria for misuses of the institute. Reich favours the first solution without considering that the second possibility may perhaps offer a better solution. Further considerations show that the conflict arises above all from prohibiting actual prices from being much lower than recommended prices. This rule seems very questionable because it eliminates price competition. Furthermore it is very doubtful that consumers are really misled by a large difference between the recommended price and that charged.
2. Prices which are recommended to retailers only certainly work like vertical price fixing sometimes, but not always. Apart from this objection, the least plausible of Reich's theses is that a prohibition of recommended prices would eliminate concerted pricing behaviour. This would be true only if the recommendations were the main cause of such behaviour. This view must be questioned because the development and the practice of concerted pricing is linked with specific market structures which cannot be eliminated by the prohibition of recommended prices.
3. Therefore, by prohibiting recommended prices one cannot expect greater retailer resistance to high prices. In addition, there seems to be no chance to strengthen price resistance of consumers by an abolition of the institute. This would suppose a very intensive comparing of prices, which is not be expected in the case of low price products. On the other hand, the consumer will compare prices if he wants to buy a very expensive or long-lasting article. In this case recommended prices are very helpful, because they indicate the highest possible price of a product, and it facilitates price bargaining if the consumer knows both recommended and actual selling prices of several traders.

The author's discussion shows that the dispute about the importance of recommended prices suffers above all from not differentiating between products which are bought and consumed daily and durable goods. Furthermore, the previous articles are one-sided in that they concentrate almost entirely on prices. If one takes product quality into consideration as well, one will find that the present Law offers a good chance to ensure that products are supplied in a constant or improved quality. Recommended prices should therefore only be allowed if the manufacturer submits to recurrent quality controls of his products. The advantages of recommended prices pointed out in the article adhere only to price recommendations which are made known to all consumers; therefore, recommendations intended for retailers only should be prohibited.     

EFFECT OF TEXTILE QUOTA RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS BETWEEN 1964 AND 1973

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of U.S. cotton textile quotas on cotton textiles imported into the U.S. between 1964 and 1973. The findings showed that cotton imports requiring more processing stages had significantly greater 10-year average prices than other groups. Changes in the dollar value of imported cotton textiles during the decade have mainly occurred because of an increase in the average prices rather than resulting from a redistribution of imports from low to high average price groups. The weakening correlation between changes in the dollar value and in the quantity of high unit value groups indicated that the control on quantity has not precluded increases in total dollar value of imports in higher processing stages, especially since 1970. Since fabrics with a relatively stable average price accounted for the major importation of cotton textiles during the 1964–1973 period, the overall control by quantity in this decade was still quite good, even though average prices of apparel were rising.     

Exchange rates and prices: Evidence from China

This article develops a pricing model that incorporates an industrial organization approach with the traditional quantity theory of money to explain the impact of exchange rates on consumer prices. Using time-series data on prices and exchange rates of China, the model replicates the main features of the observed facts: exchange rates influence consumer prices through changing import prices; money supply and output influence consumer prices following the quantity theory. The estimating results show that exchange-rate pass-through to consumer prices is low and increases from the short run to the long run. The extent of pass-through is likely to depend on markup adjustment and marginal costs.     

低酸苹果汁价格变动趋势及其影响因素分析

本文选取1981～2010年间的国际低酸苹果汁等统计数据,运用计量经济学模型以及Johansen协整检验,分析低酸苹果汁出口量、浓缩苹果汁出口量和价格、鲜食苹果出口量和价格对低酸苹果汁价格的影响程度。研究发现,低酸苹果汁价格与各因素之间所存在的长期相互关系,而影响价格变动的主要因素是鲜食苹果的出口量及价格。此外,结合1991～2010年我国苹果汁出口状况,我国低酸苹果汁出口量近年来稳定增长的趋势,结合浓缩苹果汁价格变化情况,分析我国低酸苹果汁出口与国际低酸苹果汁价格之间的关系,围绕提高我国低酸苹果汁国际竞争力的角度,提出相应的改进意见。     

Emissions trading: Impact on electricity prices and energy-intensive industries

Under the EU-wide Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), CO₂ allowances have thus far been allocated largely free of charge. This paper presents a didactic synthesis on the impact of the ETS and argues that such a cost-free allocation will lead to an increase in electricity prices even when strong competition prevails in electricity markets. Electricity prices are also likely to increase as a consequence of the environmentally desirable fuel switch from coal to natural gas in the power sector when certifi cates are entirely auctioned in the power sector as of 2013. This tendency may be attenuated, but not outweighed, by the price decrease of CO₂ allowances over the long term.     

Competitive Industry Dynamics with Constant Costs

This paper integrates investment and production decisions in a dynamic model of a competitive industry where producers, facing a technology involving fixed input–output coefficients, employ quantity adjustment rules. Whether complex dynamic price behaviour is consistent with producers breaking-even over time is explored. The proportion of costs which are sunk through investment is shown to have a potentially dramatic impact on the price dynamics. The implications of an alternative hypothesis— that producers ‘normally’ use their avail able capacities and only do otherwise if events are sufficiently dramatic—are explored     

The influence of seller strategy on the winning price in online auctions: A moderated mediation model

This paper examines the impact of seller strategy on winning prices in online auctions. In our conceptual model, three strategic choices made by the seller - minimum opening price, auction length, and use of a hidden reserve price - are mediated by the number of bids placed during the auction and moderated by product type. Our tests analyze eBay auction data for four consumer products through two matched studies (two products per study). In particular, we compare products for which value is easily determined with those for which value is less clear. Overall, we find strong evidence of the effects of minimum opening price and hidden reserve prices on final winning prices. The impact of auction length on winning price is less clear. In general, our tests support the idea that potential buyers rely more on signals such as opening price and reserve price for products for which reference prices are less available.     

Do investors learn about analyst accuracy? A study of the oil futures market

We study the impact of analyst forecasts on prices to determine whether investors learn about analyst accuracy. The straight‐forward relationship between supply and price, the economic importance of the market, the predictable timing of forecast error realizations, and the high frequency of the data make the crude oil market an interesting and advantageous setting. We find that prices rise (fall) when analysts forecast a decrease (increase) in supplies. During the 15 minutes following supply announcements, prices rise (fall) when forecasts have been too high (low). Importantly, both relationships are stronger for more accurate analysts, implying that investors learn about analyst accuracy. © 2009 Wiley Peridocals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:414–429, 2009     

Trade and prices with heterogeneous firms

This paper estimates a heterogeneous firms trade model using sector level data on export participation, trade flows, and unit value prices in a multi-country setting. Examining within-exporter variation in prices across destinations, prices are increasing in the difficulty of entering the destination market in the majority of sectors. This pattern is consistent with models in which product quality is positively correlated with firm size. However, prices decrease in export thresholds in some large sectors, including autos, apparel, and electronics. I discuss the causes and consequences of this cross-sector heterogeneity. From an accounting perspective, selection into exporting explains a small fraction of overall price variation, but accounts for nearly half of variation in bilateral trade.