A comparative study of national price levels,agricultural prices and exchange rates

This paper attempts a comparison of national price levels, agricultural prices and exchange rates across countries and over the years 1975 and 1980 using recently produced results from the United Nations Statistical Office and the Food and Agriculture Organization. This paper suggests that in most developing countries official exchange rates are more overvalued relative to GDP-based purchasing power parities (PPPs) but less overvalued relative to agricultural output-based PPPs. GDP-based PPPs in most developed countries, are, however, closer to official exchange rates. Hence, conventional opinion as to the existence of significantly lower agricultural output prices in most developing countries is not supported by this study. At the same time, protection afforded farmers in terms of higher agricultural output prices is indicated in many developed countries. It is also observed that in Asia agricultural output prices relative to nonagricultural prices have declined over the period 1975–1980, whereas the opposite trend seems to be the case in Africa. No distinct trend differences over the period are evident for the European experience. However, agricultural output prices in Asia, in 1980, were still higher than in Africa. A few policy implications of these observations are discussed briefly at the conclusion of the paper.     

居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响——基于动态存量一流量模型的实证研究

文章运用住房市场存量-流量模型,动态分析居住用地供给对新建商品住房供给及住房价格的影响,并据此模拟不同居住用地供给思路下商品住房市场的运行状况。基于上海数据的实证分析发现：政府新增居住用地供给对一定时期后的新建商品住房供给具有显著影响;居住用地供给能够影响远期住房价格,但很难对当期住房价格产生影响。模拟结果显示：增加居住用地供给所能起到平抑房价的作用较为有限。据此提出,政府居住用地供给应着眼于长期,不宜依据短期住房市场状况进行频繁调整。     

The nature and extent of the market for soybeans and soybean products

Summary This paper addresses the question of whether soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil produced in the United States and exported were part of a single, world geographic market during the decade of the 1980s. An answer to this question is sought using an approach to defining a geographic market based on the notion of instantaneous causality. The empirical results, based on prices for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil for three spatially diffuse locations, suggest that there was but a single identifiable world market for these commodities over the period of study.The authors are with the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington D.C. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the views of other U.S. Department of Agriculture staff members. Senior authorship is not assigned. The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions.     

A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth

This paper is concerned with the effects of export instability on investment and growth. It is shown that past cross-sectional empirical studies on the effects of export instability (either in prices or in value terms) used an incorrect measure of instability that does not properly take account of the share of exports in GDP. Using a new instability index and a broad set of conditioning variables, it is shown that export instability was positively associated with investment but negatively associated with growth in a large sample of countries during the period from the early 1970s to the mid 1980s.     

城市轨道交通对周边住宅价格的空间效应研究

以合肥轨道交通1号线为例，使用传统特征价格模型和空间计量模型对比分析轨道交通对周边住宅价格的影响。研究表明合肥市1号线对周边住宅的价格具有显著的增值作用，且住宅价格的空间效应显著。空间滞后模型显示住宅与轨道交通站间距离每增加1 km，住宅价格下降6.09%，低于传统模型的8.6%。这说明住宅价格的空间效应会使学者们高估城市轨道交通对周边住宅价格的增值作用，即加入空间效应影响后的研究结果更加真实、可靠。     

Estimating the Effect of Air Quality: Spatial versus Traditional Hedonic Price Models

Empirical studies of hedonic housing prices show that the spatial maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is preferable to the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) hedonic method. Current computing capabilities restrict the MLE method to relatively small data sets. This paper circumvents this limitation by coupling the spatial MLE method with block bootstrapping, a form of Monte Carlo simulation that accounts for spatially dependent data. Blocks are created based on monthly and census tract information for resampling. For each month, we obtained 50 resamples of 750 observations from a data set of 15,727 residential properties to compare OLS and MLE empirical results. We find that the spatial MLE method consistently outperforms the traditional OLS method under these simulated conditions and that air quality matters irrespective of the method used.     

On the Behavior of Import Demand of Korea

In this paper, I provide estimates of the Import demand function for Korea for the period of 1971 – 1988. Second, considering the possibility of structural change in our data period, we test the stability of the coefficients. Cusum of squares test result shows the constancy of the parameters broken between pre-1980 and post-1981 data. The estimation result based on data only after 1981 shows that the income elasticity becomes less responsive over time and the relative prices do not exercise significant influence on Korean imports.     

Agricultural price policy in Tanzania

This paper examines agricultural price policy implementation and its strategic impact in Tanzania over the period 1969–1980. Trends in producer prices and the rural—urban terms of trade are analysed by constructing weighted price and income indices for major categories of crops marketed through official channels. The results indicate a substantial deterioration of real prices and incomes from crop sales during the 1970s. When taken in conjunction with a concomitant deterioration in the efficiency of agricultural marketing the analysis suggests that price policy has had a major adverse impact both on peasant living standards and on the economic performance of Tanzania since the mid-1960s.     

Effects of temperature on mental health: Evidence and mechanisms from China

We study how temperature exposure affects mental health in a developing country using data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). We find that exposure to high temperatures leads to worse mental health. Specifically, one additional day above 27 °C during the past week would increase individuals' total CESD 8 score by 1.5%, and the likelihood of having severe mental illness by 6.2% relative to a day in the reference temperature bin. We further estimate the potential mitigating effects of air conditioning on the relationship between temperature and mental health. We find that the identified relationship is mitigated by installing air conditioning. We also test some mechanisms through which temperature might impact mental health, including physical health status and sleep. We further discuss the overall health expenditure burden associated with climate change.     

Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy

In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to “bubble” concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.We propose a sequential strategy in five steps integrating several techniques previously developed in a piecemeal and scattered way. First, we construct daily hedonic prices. Second, in order to search for the possible presence of bubbles on such high-frequency data, we propose using recently developed tests of an explosive root as an alternative to the unit root hypothesis. The third step is generated by the necessity of handling microstructure noise present at a daily frequency, thus filtering the raw data to extract a random walk component. The fourth step extracts a slowly changing monthly volatility component from the filtered daily hedonic real estate data. Finally, in so far as the presence of bubbles does not seem to characterize the residential housing market in major Chinese cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, in a fifth step we show that fundamentals are able to explain slowly changing volatility, as well as transaction volumes in these first‐tier cities.     

福州市住宅价格空间结构分析

利用探索性空间数据分析、克里格插值和多元回归分析相结合的方法,以一种新的角度深入研究福州市住宅价格在空间上的整体分布格局,以期丰富城市房价空间理论并为福州市房地产业和谐有序发展提供参考。研究发现:①福州住宅价格呈多中心结构,并向四周逐渐递减,在空间分布上有一定的连续性;②空间自相关性显著,总体上呈空间集聚格局,空间变异性明显;③住宅价格与中心城区的距离呈现显著的线性相关。     

Property-Price Determinants in Indonesia

Price formation provides critical insights into the attributes of fledgling property markets in developing countries. This article investigates asking-price formation across the Indonesian archipelago, including previously unstudied regional property markets. We compile a rich micro dataset of asking prices for residential, commercial, and undeveloped land from a nationwide classifieds database. Through a hedonic price analysis we identify the impact of property and advertisement attributes on asking prices for each type of property, using spatial fixed effects to control for spatially correlated unobservable characteristics at the district and city levels. Results indicate that property characteristics, land ownership status, and advertising method are all statistically significant indicators of asking price. We find considerable heterogeneity in asking-price formation in residential, commercial, and undeveloped land, and identify key differences between urban and rural markets.     

The impact of the rise and collapse of Japan's housing price bubble on households’ lifetime utility

This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.     

Stock Prices, Output and the Monetary Regime

Should monetary policy react to stock prices? The answer depends on whether stock prices are good predictors of future economic activity. Using long annual time-series data for the G-7 countries, data going back over 150 years for some countries, we find that stock prices do not systematically predict output growth regardless of the monetary regime in effect. We also find no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between stock prices and output except during the gold standard, when stock price booms and busts had some predictive power for output growth volatility.     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

Incumbent’s price response to new entry: The case of Japanese supermarkets

Large-scale supermarkets have rapidly expanded in Japan over the past two decades, partly because of zoning deregulations for large-scale merchants. This study examines the effect of supermarket openings on the price of national-brand products sold at local incumbents, using scanner price data with a panel structure. Detailed geographic information on store location enables us to define treatment and control groups to control for unobserved heterogeneity and temporary demand shock. The analysis reveals that stores in the treatment group lowered their prices of curry paste, bottled tea, instant noodles, and toothpaste by 0.4–3.1% more than stores in a control group in response to a large-scale supermarket opening.     

Has pass-through to export prices risen? Evidence for Japan

This paper investigates the exchange rate response of Japanese export prices over the period 1980 through 2007 using sector-specific measures of the yen’s value relative to invoicing currencies. It finds a significant increase in the response of total export prices to the yen in the late 1990s. The rise in the total export price response is traced to increases in the exchange rate response of two key export sectors. These findings for Japanese exports are consistent with the documented decline in pass-through to OECD import prices and suggest the latter could originate with changes in export pricing behavior.     

Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions

It has been argued that retail gasoline prices adjust more quickly to crude oil price increases than to price decreases. We investigate this issue using the statewide data on weekly retail gasoline prices in the United States between January 2000 and June 2007. Our analysis does not confirm the prediction that gasoline prices adjust more quickly to price increases in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the results suggest that in some geographic areas gasoline prices could change faster when crude oil prices decrease. These findings suggest that a national or a one size fits all energy policy for the United States may be misguided.

Do Japanese Work Shorter Hours than before? Measuring trends in market work and leisure using 1976–2006 Japanese time-use survey

Using Japanese time-use data from the Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA), this paper measures trends in average hours worked (market work) and leisure for Japanese over the past three decades. OECD reports at least a 15% decline in market work for Japan since the 1970s. However, holding demographic changes constant, we found that market work per week increased from the 1970s until mid-1980s, and has been relatively stable for the last two decades for both male and female full-time workers. Furthermore, although the market work per week remained relatively constant since the mid-1980s, we found a significant change in the allocation of time to market work within the week during the period. Specifically, when dividing samples into weekdays (Monday–Friday) and weekends (Saturday and Sunday), average hours spent for market work per weekday among full-time males increased by 0.4 h since the mid-1980s, whereas a significant decline in market work on Saturday was observed. This suggests that people shifted their work time from Saturday to weekdays in response to the reduced work week introduced by the amendment of the Labor Standards Act at the end of 1980s. In the meantime, commuting time and home production had decreased by 3 h since the mid-1980s for full-time female workers, indicating that the average hours of leisure had increased for females even though market work remained the same. Interestingly, however, hours for sleep declined consistently over the last three decades, resulting in a 3–4 h reduction per week for both male and female workers. Lastly, a comparison of Japanese and US time-use data suggests that Japanese work much longer than their American counterparts. On average, Japanese males work 10 h longer per week, and Japanese females 7 h longer, than Americans, even after adjusting for demographic differences between the countries.     

Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between residential property prices and the business cycle for seven advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the period 2002–2015 using quarterly data. To this end, panel data and time series methodologies are adopted as a means of providing a contextual framework on the extant relationship. The panel methodological framework explores the interaction between economic fundamentals and financial variables while the use of time series methodologies developed by Phillips et al. (2011 and 2015) provide novel evidence on the detection of property price bubbles that have been manifested in each individual country of the sample. In particular, the short-run dynamic panel framework provides a robust exploratory platform thus, shedding light on the determinants of property prices (i.e. real gross domestic product, bank credit growth, long-term bond yields and real effective exchange rate) whilst the bubble detection methodologies provide evidence of the impact of credit-driven economies on the propagation of housing booms which can serve as warning signals of the potential formation of housing bubbles.