Capitalization and Community Size

Studies often show taxes and public services capitalized into house prices, but no one has tested whether the rate of capitalization depends on community size. The theoretical model of W. H. Hoyt (1999, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 155–171), predicts that capitalization occurs, but that the rate of capitalization is weaker in large communities. Hoyt's model is tested empirically using a house price hedonic framework. The tax capitalization results are less clear, but the school quality and crime results firmly support the model's predictions. Using both school districts and municipalities to measure communities, larger communities weaken the rate of capitalization.     

A dymimic model of housing price determination

This paper presents and estimates a model of the resale housing market. The data are a cross-section of monthly time series obtained from the multiple-listing service for a suburb of San Diego. The model is specified and estimated as a dynamic multiple indicator multiple cause system of equations where the capitalization rate is taken to be an unobservable time series to be estimated jointly with the unknown parameters. These are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm based upon Kalman filtering and smoothing.The specification of the model features hedonic equations for each house sale and a dynamic equation for the capitalization rate which is constrained to make the expectation of prices equal the present value of the net returns to home ownership whenever the economic variables stabilize at steady state values. Out of steady state, the capitalization rate slowly adapts to new information.The model attributes a large portion of housing price increases of the 1970's to a fall in the capitalization rate which in turn was driven by rental inflation, tax rates and mortgage rates. Post-sample simulations indicate an initial flattening of housing inflation rates and later a fall brought on by the increase in steady state capitalization rates. In-sample simulations show that although both Proposition 13 and the inflation induced rise in the marginal income tax rates provided partial explanations for the fall in capitalization rates, the single most important factor was the acceleration in price of housing services which interacted with the tax treatment of home ownership to produce an amazing 18% average annual rate of price increase over the last seven years of the 1970's.     

Racism and urban structure

This paper begins the task of integrating models of racist behavior into general theories of urban land use. The paper derives equilibrium prices for a racist city and demonstrates that the city is less dense at the core, more dense in the suburbs, and covers a larger area than an unprejudiced city. A more complex theory of housing supply is then developed, and it is shown that racism's impact on the ghetto depends upon the ease with which maintenance can be reduced, the cost of replacing abandoned housing, and the nature of legal controls on housing quality.     

Transient Crowding and Crime:

A bstract . The effects on crime rates of the intrusion of large numbers of strangers into an area are investigated. The sensitivity of six different crime types ( murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary , and larceny ) to density of strangers is estimated using a standard model of criminal behavior. The variables which reflect this density are measures of tourists, college students, shoppers from other areas, opportunities to consume alcohol , and the presence of interstate highway exits. The results suggest that an increase in the number of strangers into an area has a positive effect on the crimes of burglary, larceny, and robbery, but very little effect on assault, murder and rape. A significant finding is that "wet" counties have a higher incidence of each crime type than do "dry" counties. From a policy standpoint, officials who support economic growth in urban areas should keep in mind that an increase in the opportunity for illegal activity accompanies such growth and plan accordingly.     

我国普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性研究

本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。     

中国城市住宅市场的结构差异性分析

市场价商品房、经济适用住房和廉租房构成了目前中国城市住宅市场的供应体系.依据中国30个主要城市的房地产开发统计数据,选择吸纳率作为评价住宅市场供需均衡状态的指标,利用固定影响变截距模型,重点研究了商品房和经济适用住房供给结构的城市差异性.研究发现,在城市住宅市场中,经济适用住房市场和商品房市场具有很强的相关性.作为具有政府资助性质的经济适用住房建设,存在典型的地域性特征,其政策的设定和实施会对整个住宅市场产生影响,地方政府应在利用比较全面的住宅市场指标体系进行综合分析基础上,制定适合本地的经济适用住房政策.     

近十五年我国住房政策及供应体系演变研究

房地产业是我国最重要的民生行业之一,我国住房发展取得巨大成就,但同时也存在着住房困难家庭基本需求尚未根本解决、保障性住房总体不足、住房资源配置不合理不平衡等问题。在梳理城镇住房制度改革以来房地产政策基础上,将1998年至2013年的住房供应体系划分为经济适用住房为主阶段,普通商品住房为主、保障性住房为辅阶段,普通商品住房、保障性住房并重阶段,多层次住房保障和供应体系基本形成阶段,并对2004年以来房地产调控政策提出几点思考。     

A general equilibrium urban location model with regional labor mobility

The model determines labor supply, land area, exports, imports, and land use intensity for an urban area. The rest-of-the-world is represented by summary supply and demand equations. General solution for first-degree homogeneous housing, export, and preference functions is given. Numerical solutions CES functions are presented.     

School Quality and Real House Prices: Inter- and Intrametropolitan Effects

This study focuses on explaining variations in real constant-quality house prices in jurisdictions located in multiple MSAs. Using a hedonic house price framework, we test competing theories of house price determination. Using two variants of the random coefficients model, we find that public school quality has a very large impact on real constant-quality house prices. Our results suggest that capitalization of school quality differences occurs on a per lot basis rather than per square foot of land. Also important to the explanation of variations in house prices are variables derived from urban theory, such as distance to the CBD, and from the amenity literature, such as a community's crime rate, arts, and recreational opportunities     

The Dark Side of Urban Informality in the Global North: Housing Illegality and Organized Crime in Northern Italy

This article deals with housing illegality/informality in Italy, where it represents an established aspect of urban development. It presents a case study focused on Desio, a town close to Milan in northern Italy. Here housing illegality occurs by virtue of the well‐established presence of a mafia‐type criminal organization (the ‘Ndrangheta). Three examples of illegal construction in Desio are analysed, forming the basis for a discussion on the distinctive features of illegal house‐building in Italy. In particular, institutional incentives encouraging illegal housing are investigated, with reference to both formal institutions (e.g. planning laws, rules preventing unauthorized housing and building amnesties) and informal institutions (e.g. organized crime). The case of illegal housing in Italy contributes significantly to the wider international debate on urban informality, highlighting the critical need for research along avenues as yet only partially explored (e.g. informal housing in Western countries and the role of criminal activities and actors in the spread of informality) and challenging some common assumptions such as the geographical dualism (‘global North’ versus ‘global South’) which, implicitly, results from the international literature.     

Some empirical results on the nature of the hedonic price function for the urban housing market

An attempt is made to develop a systematic statistical methodology for the analysis of the urban housing market The standard estimation procedures used for fitting hedonic price functions for the urban housing market are reviewed, and several potentially serious sources of bias are noted. An alternative estimator which capitalizes property values into flows and also searches for the appropriate functional form which avoids these biases is developed. The capitalization rate for owner-occupied housing in 1973 is found to be about 0.03. The magnitudes and seriousness of several of the estimation biases are examined within the context of inappropriate policy decisions which can result from the use of the standard estimators. The importance of neighborhood site characteristics in the determination of local site valuations is also examined and it is found that they explain between 15 and 50% of the standardized variation in site valuations. Further, it is found that these traits are capable of inducing valuation differentials as large as 100% between structurally identical sites.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

Capitalization,population movement,and the local public sector: a probabilistic analysis

Using data collected from household interviews in a 1965 San Francisco Bay Area Transportation Study, a probabilistic model is developed to explain the relationship between population movement and the capitalization of changes in the public sector in the price of housing. This model is constructed to compare 2 competing explanations for the flight of higher income households to the suburbs: 1) the accessibility model and 2) the flight from blight model. The accessibility model explains the decay of cities as a natural outgrowth of decreasing transportation costs, whereas the flight from blight model suggests that the wealthy leave the central city for the suburbs because of urban decay. An analysis of the San Francisco data demonstrates that high income households are more sensitive than the rest of the population to changes in the median income of the neighborhood and in expenditures and general government and education, but less sensitive to changes in property tax rate and expenditures on public safety, parks, and recreation. It is unlikely that undesirable changes in the public sector will result in a mass exodus of higher income households; capitalization in the price of housing appears sufficient to prevent this. The 2 models combined help explain the flight from the central cities, while the combined variables increase the logit estimation's prediction of bids for housing.     

城市规划对住房可支付性的影响

以场景分析法剖析城市规划与住房可支付性之间的关系,认为城市规划对住房可支付性具有双重影响:其限制作用可能导致住房价格上涨,其再分配作用则可对可支付住房进行补贴。提出通过城市规划提升住房可支付性的两条途径:直接途径为通过增加住房供给来达到提升可支付性的目的;间接途径为通过抽取规划得益来补贴住房,以提升住房的可支付性。在房价与需求双高的条件下,住房市场持续存在经济租金,因此抽取规划得益具有很强的可操作性,有可能成为解决中国住房可支付性问题的现实途径。     

Neighborhood amenities: An economic analysis

A spatial model of household and firm demand and supply of market goods is developed. Housing and neighborhood amenity markets are explicitly considered in deriving market equilibrium. The equilibrium relationships are empirically investigated, yielding important insights into the functioning of the urban economy. Attention is focused on externalities involved in neighborhood markets and the simultaneous determination of housing and amenity market equilibrium. The effect of neighborhood amenities on household equilibrium is of a major magnitude and effects of “externality” variables on both housing and amenity equilibrium are substantiated. The degree of neighborhood homogeneity and the extent of government programs aimed at neighborhood development are found to have significant impacts on housing and amenity markets.     

构建多部门专业住房保障机构

为确保城镇中低以下生活水平居民能够享受到与经济社会发展相适应住房保障,在我国审核住房体制改革过程中,构建健全完善的专业住房保障机构是基本保证。在市场经济条件下、保障房的提供或供应,是政府的责任和义务。借鉴一些发达国家和地区的经验,就我国目前的住房保障体系不够完善提出了一些问题,并针对住房保障管理机构专业性的构建提出了建议。通过分析与住房保障工作相关部门的职责,如财政部门、国土资源部门、地方政府、以及社会保障、民政、规划、公积金管理等部门,提出了建立和发展多部门专业的住房保障机构。     

The reduced form price elasticity of housing

This paper focuses on the modeling of the housing market. First, there is a discussion of terminology. The importance of distinguishing between housing and structures, and between reduced form and supply elasticities is emphasized. Second, the role of tastes and technology is emphasized. Third, the integration of the housing market into a general equilibrium urban model to investigate such issues as the effects of a housing subsidy is discussed. Throughout attention is drawn to what additional information is needed to provide an adequate empirical characterization of the housing market.     

健全我国城镇住房供应体系的政策导向探析——基于发展方式转型的时代背景

发展方式转型、经济结构战略升级要求在深化城镇化、工业化中推进农业现代化。我国经济"刘易斯转折点"的到来使农民工进城的不可逆性愈发确定。稳妥推进以农民工市民化为核心的城镇化无疑是发展方式转型多重关键战略的第一重。城镇住房供应体系的健全因此也需要新的政策导向:将农民工住房供应思路调整为提供长期安居;界定保障房和商品房的供应边界,大力建设公共租赁住房项目,发展成本型竞争的住房租赁市场;探索保障性住房"租售并举、产权共有"模式的住房资产社会政策。     

A probabilistic approach to the structure of rental housing markets

A probabilistic view of the structure of urban housing markets is developed. The demand side is based on aggregate probabilistic demand functions derived from microbehavioral random utility theory. The supply side examines the short-run pricing of the housing stock by developing “asking rent theory,” which explains how a housing supplier must find the optimal rent that maximizes expected revenue. Next, concepts of aggregate market clearing and market equilibrium are defined. Finally, a two-submarket model with specific assumptions regarding the representation of demand and the nature of market signaling is examined in detail and is given a graphical illustration. In closing, directions for extending the probabilistic approach both within and beyond urban analysis are pointed out. All analysis in this paper is for a stationary urban economy, with the housing stock assumed fixed.     

中国公共住宅供应体系及其完善的框架思路

从总量、结构、保障范围等方面分析了当前我国公共住宅供应体系存在的问题与不足,并提出了完善公共住宅供应体系的框架思路.