Variations in municipal bond default risk premia by term-to-maturity

A recent study by McInish of the influence of term-to-maturity on municipal bond default risk premia concluded that default risk premia were not invariant with respect to maturity. That study, as well as an earlier one by Robinson, failed to consider the effects of issuer credit quality. Using a large cross-sectional sample of general obligation bonds sold between 1977 and 1980, the influence of issuer credit quality on the relationship between term-to-maturity and default risk premia is investigated. The results indicate that default risk premia were an increasing function of maturity, and that this effect was larger for lower rated bonds.     

Note,advance refunding and municipal bond market efficiency

This study uses the public announcement of an advance refunding to examine the informational efficiency of the secondary market for municipal bonds. The data show that bond yields respond quickly and in the direction predicted. The text discusses methodological considerations and the data sources used in the tests. The results of the study indicate that even for infrequently traded bonds, yields can be expected to reflect fully changes in default risk.     

Adjustment costs and theory of investment under uncertainty

It is shown that the stochastic investment rule for the price-setting monopolist facing random demand differs from the deterministic rule, due to the presence of the covariance of the marginal utility of profits and the MRTS between capital and labor. For the risk-neutral quantity-setting monopolist, the optimal current investment under random demand is shown to be greater than that under deterministic conditions, given that production technology is of the Cobb-Douglas type with constant returns to scale. When random wages and prices follow first-order autoregressive schemes, the risk-neutral competitive firm's current investment level is shown to be at least equal to that under certainty.     

Long-run implications of industrial bond ratings as risk surrogates

The financial quality of industrial bonds is observed at two different times (1968 and 1976). Discriminant models, using pertinent financial ratios as input variables, are able to replicate approximately 70 percent of Moody's ratings for both years, thus indicating that ratings remain appropriate risk proxies for long periods, However, average levels of key ratios changed. Ratios measuring leverage, coverage, and profitability deterioriated over time, indicating increased absolute risk. But, since these deterioriations were fairly uniform across groups, there appears to be little change in the relative degree of riskiness across rating groups.     

Automatic adjustment clauses and allocative efficiency in public utilities

This paper presents a formal analysis of the efficiency effects of automatic adjustment clauses (AACs) is regulated industries. Using a two-input model of ex ante/ex post input choice and a general putty-clay technology, we analyze the relative extent of allocative distortions due to each of three alternative regulatory policies—periodic rate review with and without an AAC, and an AAC without any rate review—for the case of a regulated firm that chooses an ex post technology to maximize the present value of future profits.Our results indicate that the economic rationale for using AACs in industries already subject to intermittent rate review is not unambiguous, even in the face of severe cost inflation, and is particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand for output and the rate and direction of input price changes. We are forced to conclude that the use of AACs in regulated industries such as electric power, while originally justified on the basis of financial viability, may well carry significant economic costs in the form of allocative inefficiency that may outweigh the benefits.     

A “Pure” long-term interest rate and the demand for money

This article presents the appropriate rate by which to discount a constant, certain, infinite stream of future payments: that is, the yield on a noncallable perpetuity or consol. The American consol series is a daily risk-free “pure” long term interest rate which is undistorted by tax effects, call premiums, and varying duration and reinvestment assumptions. If Hamburger had used the American consol series instead of the U.S. Government Long Term Bond Rate in his money demand function, he would have found more of the “missing money.” His average error (actual minus predicted money demand) as a percentage of actual money demand would have been reduced from 1.43% to 0.93% a 35% error reduction.     

Price elasticity and bid-ask price spreads in the treasury bond market

Typical analyses of transactions costs in the bond markets explain these costs in terms of yield, term to maturity, coupons, and issue size. However, these analyses do not recognize the price elasticity of bonds to interest rate movements, which provides better measures of market risk and bid-ask price spreads. Elasticity or duration and issue size together display stronger associations with bid-ask price spreads than do the traditional variables. The association is also less subject to multicollinearity of the independent variables. Finally, stepwise regressions show that coupon and yield data add no information about bid-ask price spreads not already impounded in the duration statistic. This casts doubt on the nonduration arguments often used to support these variables as separately meaningful in transactions cost analyses.     

Experience seeking: A subjectivist perspective of consumption

The present research examines consumer behavior from a subjectivist perspective. In a phenomenological sense consumption consists of the generation of internal thoughts and|or sensations, which constitute the content of experience. The sociopsychological characteristics of consumers who primarily seek cognitive stimulation (cognition seekers), sensory stimulation (sensation seekers), novel stimulation (noveltry seekers), or are seekers of all three forms of experience (experience seekers) are delineated. Preliminary causal rationales for each type of consumption are put forward based on these findings.     

The medical expense deduction and income levels: Progressive or regressive?

The medical expense deduction (MED) allows taxpayers to deduct from taxable income a proportion of their out-of-pocket medical insurance and health care expenses. Because the rate of subsidy is equal to the marginal tax rate previous studies have found MED to be a regressive tax mechanism biased toward benefiting higher-income taxpayers. The authors demonstrate, using GINI coefficients, that MED makes the tax structure more progressive than it would otherwise be and increases equality of after-tax incomes.     

The error learning hypothesis: The evidence reexamined

This paper reexamines the error learning hypothesis, taking explicit account of both the measurement error in forward rates and the nonstationary of liquidity premiums. The evidence is consistent with the model, but with lower explanatory power than the previous results of Meiselman (1962) and Van Horne (1965).     

A note on the association between systematic risk and common stock and bond rating classifications

Relative risk classifications for both common stock and bonds are provided by several financial services, based upon their analysis of the financial and operating data of the issuer. Systematic risk, on the other hand, is a quantitative measure of relative risk based upon market-generated data. Using several multivariable statistical techniques and a sample of 443 listed companies, this note provides empirical evidence of the association between 1) systematic risk and common stock rankings, 2) systematic risk and bond ratings, 3) two popular common stock ranking classification systems, and 4) common stock rankings and bond ratings.     

Some evidence on the role of money illusion in labor supply behavior

The Keynesian idea that workers are subject to money illusion in their labor supply decisions is tested by estimating a labor supply function that includes the price level as an independent variable. The model is estimated with data drawn from various BLS publications and is aggregated by SMSA. The results indicate a significant negative supply response to price-level changes after controlling for the nominal wage rate, income, and the SMSA's unemployment rate. There is no significant difference between workers' supply response to the price level and the nominal wage rate, which suggests that workers are not subject to money illusion.     

Return and price volatility of bonds with different credit risk

This article analyzes the relative price and monthly holding period return volatility of bonds with differing credit risk. The research proceeds by decomposing the causes of price volatility into that due to duration and yield volatility. Lower duration, due to higher coupon rate, and relatively stable yields, due to the behavior of credit risk and risk aversion over the business cycle, may well make lower quality issues such as A and Baa industrials exhibit less volatility than high-quality issues such as Aaa industrials and United States Treasury issues.     

Capital market efficiency and the relationship between equity returns, interest rates, and monetary aggregates in Australia

This paper examines the efficiency with which the Australian share market incorporates new information relating to interest rates and the monetary aggregates into share prices. It finds a strong relationship between medium term government security yields and equity returns although little relationship could be found between unanticipated changes in the monetary aggregates and share returns. Furthermore, the interest rate relationship involved long lags and suggests inefficiency in stock market pricing in Australia.     

Polymorphism in competitive strategies: Trading stamps

This paper uses the example of trading stamps to examine a model of competitive nonprice marketing strategies. A concept borrowed from ethology, polymorphic equilibrium, is developed and used to explain salient features of trading stamp use by retail firms. The results contribute to an understanding of why virtually identical firms may optimally choose quite different competitive strategies. The paper also demonstrates the possibility of cyclical movements in the proportion of firms that adopt nonprice strategies such as the use of trading stamps.     

Monetary policy and the daily behavior of interest rates

It is possible that previous research has failed to detect significant variation in the ex-ante real interest rate because the Federal Reserve follows a policy designed to stabilize the real rate. If the Fed is successful, there will be little month-to-month variation in the real rate. Nonetheless, research to date has relied on monthly or quarterly data. This paper presents the results of new tests that use daily data in an attempt to detect short-term variation in the ex-ante real rate. Though the tests reveal that the real rate is not constant, most of the detected variation is related to reserve settlement on Wednesday.     

The monetary explanation of inflation: The experience of three major OPEC economies

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and to test empirically the monetary explanation of inflation in the case of the moderate inflationary experience of three major OPEC economies over the last two decades. The estimated model takes into account the underlying money demand relationship and pays careful attention to the model's lag specifications. The empirical results show that the monetary model of inflation adequately explains the inflationary process in each of the countries studied. These empirical results, furthermore, are econometrically valid insofar as they are not plagued with significant simultaneous-equation bias. In addition, the estimated equations are also found to exhibit structural stability over time.     

A market index futures contract and portfolio selection

This paper shows that if security returns are generated according to the market model and there is a futures market in the market index, then optimal portfolios can be selected in three steps: 1) select the optimal combination of firm unique characteristics; 2) select the optimal investment in the market; and 3) select the optimal investment in the risk-free asset. The futures market contract separates the choice of firm and market exposure and thus both simplifies the mathematics involved and increases the mean/variance efficiency of the optimal portfolio.     

Behavior of municipal bond default-risk premiums by maturity

Default-risk premiums have traditionally been considered to be an increasing function of time. More recently, a model has been developed which indicates that, under certain conditions, default-risk premiums are invariant to maturity. One study found significant differences in default-risk premiums for long-term corporate bonds and commercial paper. The hypothesis that default-risk premiums are invariant to maturity was tested using municipal bond data. Results indicate that risk premiums are not invariant to maturity.