Estimating temporal trends in preferences measured by graded paired comparisons

A sizable marketing research literature on preference measurement, prediction, and explanation has thus far been more concerned with point estimates of preference than with consistent changes over time. Such temporal trends can be estimated using data collected from graded paired comparisons. An appropriate technique for deriving individual and group trend parameters is first described and then illustrated using data from an experiment dealing with aesthetic preferences. Suggestions are offered concerning its advantages and limitations for applications in marketing.     

Concept testing

This paper is a review of concept testing based on the published literature and a series of personal interviews with leading practitioners. While there is considerable agreement on the usefulness of concept testing, practitioners disagree on the best way to perform them. In addition to highlighting these disagreements, the paper covers general suggestions for improving concept testing.     

Exponents of multiattribute models

The effect of different exponents on the predictive ability of multiattribute models is examined. Survey data on 1202 individuals concerning their preferences for television shows is analyzed. The results indicate that the optimal power is not 1, and that consequently it may be somewhat more advantageous to improve on an already strong attribute than on relatively weak ones.     

Market similarity and market selection: Implications for international marketing strategy

International market selection patterns for a sample of 954 new products suggest that firms exhibit a significant preference for markets similar to the home market. Preferences for similar markets decline as firms gain experience in a variety of markets, however. This pattern suggests the importance of uncertainty and information in global market selection and marketing mix management. Alternative means of gathering information about foreign markets permit and support very different approaches to global marketing activity. More fundamentally, a global perspective on the relationship between market conditions, marketing policies and programs, and consumer response can be developed systematically to improve global marketing performance.     

Mismeasurement of market returns

Virtually all empirical tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model have assumed (usually implicitly) that returns of some New York Stock Exchange index measure the returns of the “market factor” without error. However, recent theoretical developments suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. In this effort, an obverse tack is adopted — the asset pricing model is assumed correct and attention is focused on the impacts of incorrect specification of market returns. A simple errors-in-variables econometric technique is used to reevaluate the oft-cited study of Black, Jensen, and Scholes. The conclusion is reached that incorrect measurement of the market is itself an onerous and unreconciled problem which adds marked bias to tests of asset pricing mechanisms.     

Financial determinants of systematic risk in real estate investment trusts

Financial theory and empirical evidence suggest that a firm's systematic, or market related, risk is related to its financial conditions. This study empirically investigates the financial determinants of systematic risk for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The study is an examination of sample of 32 REITs for the period 1976–1978. The results indicate that systematic risk varies directly with financial leverage, business risk, and advisor fee. The explanatory power of the relationship between systematic risk and financial variables exceeds that of previous studies wherein firms were pooled across industry groups. The higher explanatory power observed even with limited data suggests that better estimates of coefficients of financial determinants of systematic risk may be obtained through analysis conducted on an industry by industry basis. Furthermore, such industry-specific analysis provides useful results to practicing financial managers in their financial policy considerations. With the knowledge of how the financial decisions affect the firm's systematic risk, a manager may be able to manipulate those variables so as to reduce the systematic risk for his or her firm and thus increase the market value of the firm's securities.     

Two copy testing techniques: The cloze procedure and the cognitive complexity test

The theory behind two copy testing techniques—the cloze procedure and the cognitive complexity text—is reviewed; and three hypotheses are developed for testing. These two techniques work especially well when used together as they provide a way to match message properties with the audience's abilities. In a discriminant analysis setting, support is found for all three hypotheses, and a substantial portion of the variance in the criterion variable—advertising recall—is taken into account. The results of predictions to a validation sample are also encouraging.     

Importance,elicitation order,and expectancy × value

Considerable confusion surrounds the role of importance in multiattribute attitude models. The present study tests a theoretical proposition as to how attribute importance is manifested in the expectancy-value formulation. Though not unequivocal, the results suggest that order of elicitation may be more valid than structured ratings as an indicant of attribute importance.     

Reliability and cross-validity of trade-off analysis in an industrial setting

More than 200 applications of trade-off analysis now have been completed. A review of the literature uncovers only four sources that evaluate the reliability or validity, or both, of trade-off analysis using the concept evaluation approach. Detailed evaluations of trade-off analysis based on trade-off grid data are unavailable. This paper reports reliability and cross-validity experience using this approach.     

Perceived importance of selected product information sources in two time periods by United States and West German consumers

Perceived use of different types of information sources in the purchase of a major durable good is investigated in two countries (West Germany and the U.S.), two age groups (under 35, 35 and over), and two time periods (1970 and 1976). A logit model is constructed to allow probabilistic conclusions about the relationships among time, country, and age as explanatory variables and information source types as response variables. Product testing is found to increase in importance between time periods in both countries and to have the highest probability of use in combination with peer group as a source. Advertising has twice the probability of perceived use in the U.S. as in West Germany, and probability of use has not changed between years. Age is found not to be significant in perceived importance of sources.