Further evaluation of conglomerate performance

In the early years conglomerates were seen as the financial concept of the future. More recently their economic advantages have been seriously questioned. This article reviews the existing literature on conglomerate performance and extends the investigation through the early seventies. While conglomerates provide investors with less variability from market movements than do nonconglomerate firms, they provide less diversification than closed-end investment companies and mutual funds. Furthermore, risk adjusted performance measures of conglomerates did not differ significantly from those of other firms of portfolios. Thus, conglomerates should be viewed simply as another category of investments that plot along the security market line.     

The role of incubator organizations in the founding of growth-oriented firms

The role of incubator organizations, those organizations where entrepreneur work before starting their own firms, is examined. Using a sample of 161 new, growth-oriented firms, the relationships of the new companies to their incubator organizations are considered, as well as the characteristics of the incubator organizations. 5The findings have implications for prospective entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs in most industry categories do not change geographic location and, in most technical industries, usually start businesses related to what they did before. An individual's decision to join a particular organization results in a particular geographic location and in knowledge about a particular industry. The would-be founder located in an unpromising geographic area and getting experience in an industry offering few opportunities for company start-ups is unlikely to be able to start a growth-oriented technical firm, regardless of personal motivation. However, the prospective founder of a nontechnical firm appears to be less tied to the experience gained in an incubator organization.There are also implications for regional economic development. Because technically oriented start-ups are tied closely to the business of their incubator organizations and because most entrepreneurs don't move when starting, the possibilities for high-technology start-ups may be very limited in many geographic regions. There have been no studies, to date, on why some founders move when starting. Programs to attract entrepreneurs at the time of start-up may have promise, but, at least to date, there is not much evidence of entrepreneurs being mobile at this stage of their careers.Local and regional programs to attract branch facilities of larger corportions have a long history. The emphasis is usually upon attracting facilities that will offer the maximum number of blue-collar jobs. In contrast to this traditional approach, it might be beneficial to shift the emphasis to those facilities most likely to function as incubators. The greatest benefits might come from laboratories or divisions that would “seed” a region with people learning about promising technologies or industries.The role of universities in this process appears to be less direct than is often assumed. Based upon our sample, it appears that software and biotechnology/medical firms often have spun-off from universities or hospitals. However, in other industry categories, it is business firms that have primarily served as incubators. There are currently many experiments underway to create university-affiliated innovation centers or incubator centers intended to help aspiring entrepreneurs. Whether these will enable universities to function more effectively as incubators, spinning off students and faculty who start growth-oriented firms, remains to be seen.     

Inflation,currency exchange rates,and the international securities markets

A time-state-preference model of an efficient and complete international financial market is employed to investigate the conditions under which the international Fisher Effect will hold, and the forward currency exchange rate will be an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate. The presence of stochastic inflation within countries in the fiat-currency prices of real goods will destroy both relationships, even in the absence of any institutional imperfections or trading barriers. Similarly, expected inflation rate differentials across countries will not coincide with spot-versus-forward currency exchange rate differentials.     

Adjustment costs and theory of investment under uncertainty

It is shown that the stochastic investment rule for the price-setting monopolist facing random demand differs from the deterministic rule, due to the presence of the covariance of the marginal utility of profits and the MRTS between capital and labor. For the risk-neutral quantity-setting monopolist, the optimal current investment under random demand is shown to be greater than that under deterministic conditions, given that production technology is of the Cobb-Douglas type with constant returns to scale. When random wages and prices follow first-order autoregressive schemes, the risk-neutral competitive firm's current investment level is shown to be at least equal to that under certainty.     

The error learning hypothesis: The evidence reexamined

This paper reexamines the error learning hypothesis, taking explicit account of both the measurement error in forward rates and the nonstationary of liquidity premiums. The evidence is consistent with the model, but with lower explanatory power than the previous results of Meiselman (1962) and Van Horne (1965).     

Market efficiency across securities exchanges

Considerable empirical evidence has been presented in the literature of finance in recent years addressed to the question of the informational efficiency of the American capital market. The present paper adds to that evidence. In particular, securities traded off the NYSE—on the American Stock Exchange, on regional exchanges, and over the counter—are found to exhibit return characteristics that imply rather more frequent price departures from equilibrium than for their NYSE-listed counterparts. The data consist of the actual investment experiences of a large sample of individual investors with securities traded in the various locales.     

Comparison of alternative models for estimating the cost of equity capital for electric utilities

In this article five models used to estimate the cost of equity capital for electric utilities are systematically compared. We show the impact of model specification, data definitions, and estimation techniques on the estimates. Our search for the “best” model is based on reasonableness of estimates and the Pesaran-Deaton test for non-nested hypotheses. Conclusions emerging from the study are the following: 1) all models explain approximately the same proportion of the variation; 2) recognition of natural nonlinearities in the models does not lead to improvement; 3) no model can consistently reject the other models.     

The determination of corporate optimal capital structure under value maximization and informational asymmetry

In this article we examine the optimal capital structure of the firm under conditions of informational asymmetry, i.e., when the manager of the firm is viewed by the market as possessing inside information about the firm's future profitability. Unlike previous research on this topic, in this study we preserve the objective of value maximization when examining the signaling property of corporate capital structure. We also recognize explicitly the other consequences of debt financing on the value of the firm. An integrated analysis of the capital structure problem within the context of rational expectation is presented, and a signaling equilibrium is derived and discussed. The nature of the welfare costs that emerge from the existence of informational asymmetry is also analyzed.     

SBA default rates : Selection bias and credit deterioration

This study estimates the effects of changes in the money and capital markets on small business loan failure rates. It develops a lagged model of the relationship between term structure and risk premium variables and the loan failure rates of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Bank credit availability to small firms is shown to be the key factor in relating changes in economic conditions to changes in the SBA loan failure rates. As bank credit availability changes over an economic cycle, there is a movement of the least risky small firms into and out of the population from which the SBA grants and guarantees loans.     

Capital market efficiency and the relationship between equity returns, interest rates, and monetary aggregates in Australia

This paper examines the efficiency with which the Australian share market incorporates new information relating to interest rates and the monetary aggregates into share prices. It finds a strong relationship between medium term government security yields and equity returns although little relationship could be found between unanticipated changes in the monetary aggregates and share returns. Furthermore, the interest rate relationship involved long lags and suggests inefficiency in stock market pricing in Australia.     

Currency,Marginal Tax Rates,and the Underground Economy

This paper has attempted to isolate that portion of the underground economy which is both measurable and controllable. The standard variables postulated by Cagan, income and interest rates, are still important, although the value of the income elasticity of currency demand may be larger than expected. Marginal tax rates have a positive and significant influence on currency holdings, which supports Tanzi's work and contradicts the findings of the Internal Revenue Service. While not all the increase in currency holdings in the last 20 years can be explained by using tax rates, somewhere between $11 and $12 billion worth of currency can be attributed to that source. While unemployment compensation ought to affect the size of the underground economy, no statistical verification can be found through the specification contained here. Finally, it is noted that the trend toward less currency holding, which one would expect from the recent banking innovations, would have occurred had not other forces offset it.One of the forces which has probably led to an increase in currency holdings is increased drug-related activity. However, that portion of the underground economy which exists because of crime has been largely ignored here because little of it can be controlled by economic policy. What is explored here is a measurement of how much underground activity we could dissuade by lowering taxes, and further, how those lower taxes would influence tax collections. The effects appear to be large enough to warrant concern about the impact of tax rates on incentives.     

The economic relationship between service quality and market protection for regulated household-goods moving

In considering the effects of motor carrier regulation, the direct measurement of service quality is an often neglected issue. This paper is an empirical investigation of the relationship of entry controls to service quality for household goods (HHG) moving services. The major research questions, which are based on inferences in the economic literature, have considerable importance for HHG regulation. The major finding is that carriers who receive the greatest market protection from the ICC provide inferior service quality and do not compete away excess returns by raising the level of service quality. Based on the study results, a number of theoretical and policy implications are discussed.     

A “Pure” long-term interest rate and the demand for money

This article presents the appropriate rate by which to discount a constant, certain, infinite stream of future payments: that is, the yield on a noncallable perpetuity or consol. The American consol series is a daily risk-free “pure” long term interest rate which is undistorted by tax effects, call premiums, and varying duration and reinvestment assumptions. If Hamburger had used the American consol series instead of the U.S. Government Long Term Bond Rate in his money demand function, he would have found more of the “missing money.” His average error (actual minus predicted money demand) as a percentage of actual money demand would have been reduced from 1.43% to 0.93% a 35% error reduction.     

Behavior of default-risk premiums for corporate bonds and commercial paper

The question addressed in this paper is whether default-risk premiums for short-term and for long-term securities behave differently over time. The question is important because it affects decisions by corporations and state and local governments as to the maturity structure of their debt. It also affects decisions by investors as to the maturity and the type and grade of security in which they invest. Several hypotheses have been advanced about the behavior of default-risk premiums for different maturities. The purpose of this paper is to test these hypotheses empirically with a set of data heretofore unused. In so doing, new insights are gained into the behavior of default-risk premiums for different maturities.     

Some factors determining municipal revenue bond interest costs

This paper tests for variations in risk premiums on municipal revenue bonds that are related to the geographic location of the issuer, the issue's second rating, and secondary collateral provisions. The empirical findings indicate that investors required risk premiums that depended on local economic conditions. Issuer borrowing costs were also shown to be related to factors that cause or reinforce segmentation of the tax-exempt bond market.     

Stationarity test for the beta binomial model

The beta binomial model has been successfully applied to describe brand switching, television viewing, and magazine readership behavior. However, long-term projections from this model tend to have systematic biases. These biases can be explained by violations of the stationarity assumption of the model. A statistical test for stationarity is presented. A transition matrix upon which the test is based provides a useful diagnostic tool for detecting shifts in preference structures versus equilibrium switching behavior.     

The optimal policy rule under rational expectations and multiplier uncertainty

This paper shows the role of macro policy under multiplier uncertainty when expectations are rational and the supply structure is affected by price level variance. Policy less is a function of price level variance and possibly of the expected price level. If the letter argument is omitted from the less function, optimal policy simply minimizes the horizontal variance of the aggregate demand curve. If it is not omitted, the level of policy depends on the responsiveness of the supply structure to price level variance, and there may be multiple local policy optima.     

Entry inclinations under uncertainty

This paper considers the market entry decision of a potential entrant that behaves as if it knew the future market demand and its own cost schedules, and formulates a set of probability judgements as to the unknown output rates that its future rivals will maintain. The special case where entry is free and each in-market seller, as well as the potential entrant, assumes that the others will not alter their production provokes the classic Cournot-Stackelberg situation. Although one might suspect that uncertainty would tend to inhibit entry as compared with an equivalent, in the expected-value sense, certainty situation, this is not at all the case. The suspucion is not necessarily true even when management is risk averse.     

Some evidence on the role of money illusion in labor supply behavior

The Keynesian idea that workers are subject to money illusion in their labor supply decisions is tested by estimating a labor supply function that includes the price level as an independent variable. The model is estimated with data drawn from various BLS publications and is aggregated by SMSA. The results indicate a significant negative supply response to price-level changes after controlling for the nominal wage rate, income, and the SMSA's unemployment rate. There is no significant difference between workers' supply response to the price level and the nominal wage rate, which suggests that workers are not subject to money illusion.